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Interesting distinction, thanks.
As to touted prospects, they can reasonably be expected to do more than they have. No argument there. I don’t know the historical figures, so I don’t know the odds that a particular one actually will play to reasonable expectation. One out of two maybe. Just a guess. Maybe less.
The argument starts to get a bit more contorted as time passes and stats pile up. Bader at 1000 PAs requires some additional rationalization. DeJong at 1700 PAs more still. I am not a statistician, but I suspect that the odds of them actually performing to “expectation” declines as the number of past PAs they must outperform increases.
stlcard25, can you explain the difference between “do more than they have” and “play to expectations”?
forsch31, it seems like a situation where those with inside info know but won’t say until somebody else reports it first. BW has previously explained to me that confidential info must be treated respectfully or you will get a cold shoulder next time.
We are sorely lacking in top of order guys since OBP is the thing that matters.
If Edman can match his .350 OBP from 2019 as a part timer and as a minor leaguer he will be serviceable in the absence of something better. If he is closer to his .317 2020 when he was a regular, that will not work.
Hopefully Carlson will do like he did at Springfield in 2019 since he will be top of order. But he’s not in the Texas League anymore. Countless guys have looked good at the plate in the Texas League and not in MLB. Whatever you might say about Carlson could have been said about many of them as well. It is roll of the dice. If he comes up craps we try one of the other outfielders who are even more unlikely. Opponents will have had a better look at all those guys going into this year.
We also have issues with the 5-6 slots with DeJong and Yadi or vice versa. For DeJong to be adequate protection, he needs to reprise his AA self from 2017, 4 years ago, rather than continue with anything he has done since. Even with pop, a 2.50 BA, 325 OBP guy is inadequate hitting 5th. 6th would be better if we had a legit #5. Yadi will likely be a .250-.260/.300 OBP singles hitting DP machine. Not happnin as #5. (or#6).
The fangraphs explanation for the Cards is not totally unreasonable. The team will be carrying a lot of below average ballast unless several projected regulars do more than they have. And everyone faced the same issues in 2020, its not just our young guys whose 2020 performance shortfalls should be discounted. Or I should say our young batters. Our young pitchers’ impressive 2020 performances somehow shouldn’t be similarly discounted for some magical reason.
Another plate discipline guy. Putting it in play allows for improvement over time. Seems solid defensively, 46% throw out.
Tanking for picks is about the only weapon small market teams have. If it is taken away via a payroll floor it has to be replaced or offset with something else.
Actually, Nootbaar’s #91 may be either prescient or sly. Long time TCN and TCNB participants know who once wore #19 briefly one spring when he was an unknown outfielder standing in from the left side. 19-91, get it? Brian, take good notes to save research time for the future article.
As much as I would like to see a stereotypical LF/1b type thumper in the group, a grizzled veteran with pine tar in his veins, the OF thing will make for a fun to follow spring and early season story line.
I take a light hearted approach to posting here amongst some serious and knowledgeable folks, but I did put some research and thought into my choice of Nootbar as my sleeper pick. Research in the form of looking up TCN draft day article (Scott Schook and BW) from 2018 when he was an 8th rounder. An analytics driven pick (my favorite) where a combination of very good plate discipline and power potential got the computer’s attention. I do object to the “left handed Luke Voit” reference as plate discipline is not a Voit characteristic.
But there you go, a potential LF/1b thumper sleeper. And here he is an out of left field NRI. Just what doctor bling ordered. They could have done better than 91 with the uni number.
With downhill like that he doesn’t need to throw 100. Maybe the Cards can fix him.
I assume an A level guy got a cuppa last year because he was on their alternate site roster and they needed an arm. Also assume TJ at end of 2016, but there could be another explanation for the 2017 gap in his record.
Anyway, it would be fun to see Waino have to look up at someone if they ever cross paths.
Wouldn’t it have been stupid to sign him before his winter ball was done? Anyway, I have glad he is back.
I don’t think the front office is worried about Knizner maybe being the next Arozarena. The question will be do we want to give Knizner PAs or do we want to get the most out of our pitching staff by having Yadi behind the plate. Putting it another way, suppose you are Arenado and you are seeing the team slogging along playing .500 ball and there’s three outfielders hitting .235 clumped at the bottom of the order, the low cost option is across the diamond at 2B and Yadi is on the bench yet again. Nobody wants to see that happen, but four fifths of it would be unavoidable because Mo has provided no alternative. There is an alternative to the Yadi sitting part.
Brian, it evidently is more complicated than that. Bader has had 1,000+ MLB PAs already. He showed us a .234 BA. We know what he has.
I do hope the determination not to have another Arozarena doesn’t end up affecting Arenado’s opt out decision down the road. I can’t imagine Mo would let it go to that extreme, which is why I said the team needs to do well early if those PAs are going to be there for those guys.
jj, I don’t suggest that the team’s fortune rests only with the outfield, but consider this: If some combination of the other guys get off to a slow start and the team is getting mired what are they going to do? Sit and replace some combination of Yadi, DeJong, Goldy, Arenado, whichever are not hitting? Or are they going to replace a couple OK rookie outfielders hoping to shake up the offense? It is those guys that are on the bubble.
jj how secure are those PAs though? The team pretty much has to be competitive and probably more than that given the frenzy. If the team stumbles out of the gate and doesn’t get on a winning track rather quickly the current agenda could go out the window. A hole will allowed to get only so deep. Dean showing up would be the first chunk of sky falling.
Stan jersey number stories never get old. I can imagine you had as much fun with the 36 story as I know you did with the 19 one from years ago. And apparently you still are. 🙂
bccran, Liberatore could be bouncing it to the plate for all we know, and reports would be “very impressive”.
