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Wow, it sounds like things are a bit testy in Cardinal-land. I did not agree with management’s decision to extend Matheny after last season. I thought the situation should be evaluated after 2017, even though it is common-place not to let a manager go into a final season of a deal. However, the Rockies did just that with Walt Weiss, and now look where they are.
At any rate, this club has obviously under-performed, and fingers are being pointed. Someone has to pay the price, and since the under-performing players are not easy to change it usually comes down to the manager. The club tried the coaching re-alignment, and the manager will be next if we end the season around .500.
The point about the division is real good. In the NL Central, this club is still in the hunt and felt that they have a better shot with Lynn than losing him and adding whoever they were offered in return. The Cardinals would have dealt Lynn if the deal was right, and obviously it was not. But put us in either of the other divisions, and the offer may have been “right”.
Now their problem will be signing him, or risk losing him to a division rival. They are gambling that he will go to a team not close to St.Louis. Lynn is a real good pitcher, a solid 3.5 WAR guy his last two years (’14 and ’15), and he’s on pace to beat that this year. He’s going to get at least three years from someone, and possibly more unless he breaks down some later this year.
What will really kill our efforts to re-sign him is the Leake deal. Lynn deserves something comparable to Leake, even better as he is only 6 months older and is a better pitcher. The Cardinals are unlikely to do that, although Lynn’s numbers warrant a very lucrative deal, again provided he stays healthy all year.
Looks like we are going to play the hand we were dealt in April, with variations dependent on injuries. We really are not out of this, as one stretch of say 10 wins in 13 games puts us right there. This team is talented enough to do that – whether they will or not remains to be seen. We’ll see how things look in late September.
It looks like the front office was not impressed with the return they would get for Lynn. He had been putting up consistently strong starts, so we are not seeing what is considered equal value in return.
Sometimes deals can work out after the deadline, but I would think the Cardinals are now looking at working out a deal with Lynn to keep him here. I am okay with that, as he is a solid number 2-3 starter who usually keeps you in the game.
When guys like Bader and Kelly are there, this might be the best Memphis team since the days of Craig, Freese, Jay, Descalso and all those “Memphis Mafia” guys.
It’s great to see the talent we have in the high minors. One of my all-time favorite Cardinal AAA teams was the 1966 Tulsa team – Steve Carlton, Ted Savage, Alex Johnson, Elio Chacon, Walt “No Neck” Williams, Bobby Tolan – their outfield was so talented that the speedy Tolan played a lot of first base on that team.
Great news about Lou! I was just in Chicago for the National Sports Collectors Convention, and Lou was supposed to be there signing autographs, although I was not there at the same time.
Twins did a nice job flipping Garcia. If Jaime is healthy through the end of the year, he could be a huge benefit to the Bombers. With Price seeming like the “new” Garcia as far as injuries, maybe the Yankees have gained an edge on their rivals.
Speaking of Price, it’s looking good right now that we lost out on that sweepstakes.
I doubt Grichuk and Piscotty have much trade value at this point. Pham’s value has risen exponentially, but then that is why you prefer to keep him.
Most likely we are stuck with what he have, unless we move Pham in the hopes that he brings more future value than he will provide. I would have to be almost overwhelmed on a deal for him, so it’s hard to see much changing here until possibly the off-season, when we might be able to put a package deal together that includes one of these guys.
One risk in keeping Lynn and then not signing him is that he signs with the Cubs, replacing Lackey. He’ll be haunting us for another 3 years or so.
If we keep him, I prefer management to be thinking of working a deal moreso than taking a flier on a draft choice. A solid major league starter is worth far more than a post-second round pick. Sure we have some nice prospects, but pitching has a way of thinning out fairly quick. Just like this year with Reyes going down and now Wainwright going on the DL. Weaver is still an unknown, Leake is inconsistent, and even Martinez struggles more than you want for an ace.
Ironically our fifth starter, Wacha, and Lynn are pitching better than anyone the last month or so. Lynn has been pretty consistent all year, and is a horse. He has a lot of value so we either need to keep him and commit to signing him, or get at least a top-100 prospect and other lower risk potential in return.
When Rosey is good, he’s very good. Like any pitcher, it is all about commamd. If he’s right, he dominates.
Maybe a “bridge” type signing would be a better way to phrase it. I think the club knew the last couple of years of the deal could be over-payments, but wanted to have greater insurance on the next 2-3 years.
Good comments mudville. And you never know how things will work out. I was riding the bike this morning and thinking about what I said on the Fowler and Piscotty deals, and then thought that who knows, maybe a year or two from now those deals will look good.
Nice to win the kind of game we usually lose. I would be okay if we decide to move on from some of the core of this club and move toward the future. If we could get some good controllable talent for Carpenter, Lynn and Oh, not to mention Grichuk, Siegrist, Bowman, and possibly Martinez, I say go for it.
Lynn would be tough to lose this year, as he is pitching well and is a workhorse. I’d love to work a deal for him and jettison Leake and Fowler, but we would have to absorb a lot of financial commitment. And we need to see what we can get from Dexter, along with Piscotty. Both have been a bit sabotaged by injury this year, but maybe down the stretch or next year they’ll bring some good value. Piscotty should, although given hindsight the club undoubtedly wishes they had not done either deal.
DeJong looks like the real deal to me, but we will see how he progresses. He needs to learn better plate discipline, but that is not unusual for a guy just starting out.
On Diaz, after I commented about how bad he was playing, the reponses were that he was just fine and was our everyday shortstop. But man, you could just see that something was wrong with him – I wonder of it has something more to do than just baseball.
Pham is more in the category of players we want to acquire, not trade. I would be real surprised if he is dealt unless premium prospect(s) coming back are part of the deal. If that is the case, most likely other players will be involved as well and we would be signaling to the fans the old “wait ’til next year” slogan.
Trade Pham? No way, unless we are in full “sell” mode. Grichuk maybe, but if they trade Pham, they may as well start unloading guys like Lynn, Oh, maybe Carpenter as well and stock up for the future.
Dexter was sort of a stop-gap, insurance type signing after we let Holliday walk, that has turned out worse than expected in the short run due to him being a little banged up this year, and then Matheny doing his usual lineup messing up routine. Since then, the signing is looking worse as Pham is healthy and gotten to play and show his value, Bader is doing well, and we just traded for a hot-shot AAA outfielder. Not too mention the extension to Piscotty, and the ever-present Grichuk who hits homers at a reasonably good pace, enough to keep us all thinking maybe he could be as good as Pham. Then there is Martinez who is similar to Grichuk – can look real good at times, good enough to make you think that if he plays regularly he could put up some numbers.
Great comments and illustration on WAR. Those guys that put up 7+ WAR are incredibly valuable. We had that in Pujols for years. We got much more value from him than we spent. Which brings up another point – history has shown that often a high WAR guy like Albert gets compensated more by a team he leaves, than the team he was when at his best. In other words, Albert is not unusual in that the team that got a bargain for him does not over-compensate him during his declining years. Often another team “pays” for the value that went to his prior team. Right now, we are paying Dexter’s 2016 value, that went to the Cubs. But then the Cubs are paying Jason Heyward’s 2015 value, that went to us.
It’s good to see that everyone is now on board with Diaz as a disappointment. I commented how bad he looked about a week before he was sent out, and there were quite a few responses saying basically that I did not know what I was talking about. But watching him, it was obvious he was lost – he would weakly flail at pitches well out of the zone, and was trying to pull them at that. Now it looks like DeJong is the man at short. DeJong and Wong kind of has a ring to it – they look like a good, young DP combo for the next few years.
Exactly – that’s how I would have done it. I also do not like Molina in the 5 spot. I would have gone:
Fowler
Wong
Pham
Gyorko
DeJong
Voit
Molina
GrichukThe unknown is: Has Carpenter improved due to moving to leadoff, or is it more a normal progression towards his career average? Maybe some of both? Maybe had he stayed at 3 he would have done even better? We’ll never know of course.
Quite a few disappointments this year. Diaz of course is a huge drop, but then his loss has been mitigated somewhat by the play of DeJong.
The bullpen is probably the biggest disappointment I see. We have lost far too many games that were close late. This Cub series was a classic sample of our season – we outscore them by 4 runs in the series, but lose two of three, both losses being in late-close games.
Another point that has not been brought up that I think has hurt our club is not sticking with Carpenter in the three spot, and giving in to the whole “he can only hit lead-off” mantra. One of the big reasons Fowler was thought to be worth the deal we gave him was to settle our lineup, bring in a true leadoff man, and hit Carpenter in more of a run-production spot. To abandon that some 40 games into a five-year deal is extremely short-sighted. I don’t have a break down, but Carpenter is probably not hitting much different at lead off than he did at #3, and most likely would have about the same numbers today had we stuck with him at 3.
Now we have Dexter Fowler at 3, which makes our 3 and 5 hitters, including Molina at 5, as probably near the weakest twosome in the league.
Then after that, Piscotty has been a major disappointment. You have Grichuk, Piscotty, Molina and Diaz (when he was with the big club) all around .700 OPS. That is tough to overcome, and then with a shaky bullpen it’s a wonder we are not further below .500.
But then the reason we are where we are is that Pham and DeJong have picked up much of the offensive slack, and the starters have been mostly good.
Wow, Siegrist looked great! Here is a situation where I would bring him back for the ninth. No way Mike will do that of course, and there is something to be said for it as you love to have him build his confidence on that outing. Bringing him back might not go so good in the ninth.
Promising appearance though.
Sheesh, good offense and bad defense in this one. At least the offense has hit the “On The Run” bonus. This should be the batting order for the next few games:
Sierra
Carpenter
Pham
Gyorko
DeJong
Molina
Wong
FowlerMike likely won’t do that, so at least he should flip Sierra and Fowler and go that way with the rest of the order.