Percent Who Make It By Level

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  • #31343
    Avatarbccran
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    There are stats that show the percentage of those drafted (by round) who eventually make it to the major leagues. And we know that overall, only 8-9% of total minor league players ever make it. But with weeding out going on up through the levels, are there stats for each level? The percentage of AA and AAA players should be higher than 8-9%, shouldn’t it? Only wondering this, because in looking at our AAA and AA rosters it sure looks like more than 2 or 3 players at both Memphis and Springfield have a chance to make it. Or are we beating the odds?

    #31344
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    https://www.thebaseball.blog/who-drafts-the-best/

    This article was related to the draft but…in a sense, yes the Cards have done better than is typical.

    #31360
    Avatarbccran
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    Would really enjoy a conversation about whom posters think will make it at each level.

    Starting with Memphis, how about

    Flaherty (rotation)
    Gant (bullpen)
    Hudson (rotation)
    Sherriff (bullpen)
    Diaz (bench)
    Mejia (bench)
    Ravello (bench)
    Voit (starter)
    Valera (bench)
    O’Neill (starter)
    Bader (starter)

    That’s 11 out of 26, or 42%.

    #31365
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Define “starter” and “bench”. How long does a player have to be in that situation to count?

    I read the post above without noting who posted it. When I got to Voit as ” starter” I already knew. Lol

    #31406
    Avatarbccran
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    Many feel that Voit can be a major league starter. If not with the Cardinals, then somewhere else. The announcers have said that.

    #31407
    Avatarbccran
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    Starter = gains everyday starter position.
    Bench = utility player only.

    #31409
    AvatarSoonerinNC
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    Also Adolis Garcia, multi-talented guy who is red hot. Maybe the best arm in the system and great speed.

    #31413
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Not trying to be contentious but a guy might be an everyday starter for 20 games and not cut it. Is he considered a starter? Is a guy that sees 10 games in the bigs as a bench player never to be heard from again considered to have made it as a bench player?

    #31414
    AvatarDangerZone
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    My feelings would be

    Flaherty (rotation)
    Gant (bullpen)
    Hudson (rotation)*I feel he will be an All Star at least once
    Sherriff (bullpen)
    Ravello (bench)
    Voit (bench)
    O’Neill (starter)
    Bader (Bench)
    Lino (Bench)
    ***Wouldn’t Diaz be considered as already making it?

    #31415
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    I dont see Ravello as even staying in the org. Unless put on what is an already crowded 40 man roster he will be a minor league FA. With Voit and Carpenter ahead of him not sure why he would come back as a minor league FA.

    #31421
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The announcers are team employees, whose job it is to sell the product to fans. They are not going to have jobs long if they are 100% candid on the air.

    #31422
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    CC, I get your point on Ravelo maybe wanting to leave, but why would the competition be any different this winter than it was in April, when he signed as a free agent? Carpenter and Voit were here then, too. So were Adams and Huffman, both of whom have since left. So I could argue he is less blocked than before. In fact, come to think of it, what MLB teams don’t have a first baseman already? Not many. Of course, he could still just want a change of scenery for 2018.

    #31439
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Maybe, but i would say Voit emerged this year and the Cardinals have shown they really dont want a 1B only guy on the bench.

    You could also add Piscotty, Gyrko and Martinez as being ahead of him as well.

    He may want to return to where he had success (Memphis) or he may want to look for more opportunity.

    I’d say ML free agents re-signing with the same team is the exception.

    #31588
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Flaherty………starter
    Hudson………..starter
    Pearce………..BP
    ArReyes……….BP
    Montgomery…….BP
    Bader…………either
    O’Neill……….or starter
    Valera………..bench
    Voit………….?
    Mejia…………?
    and Diaz could find his way back as a starter, DeJong back to 3B.

    Tip of the cap to whoever moved DeJong to SS as insurance for Diaz.
    AND accolades to Wong, who made some out-of-character remarks earlier in the season concerning his situation with the team. To someone saying that, you tell him to put up or shut up. Kolten is putting up.

    #31683
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    I am travelling right now, so do not have the exact information. However, a recent SABR publication had an in-depth article on the percentage of draftees that eventually reach the big leagues. I believe it was even broken down into percentages of anyone who appears in even one major league game, and percentages of those who reach a certain threshold, like 500 games or some amount of innings pitched or appearances for pitchers.

    Bottom line, the chances of reaching the “show” were small. I believe even for first rounders it was 50% to even get there, with percentages dropping from there on down. I will see if I can dig that out when I get back home next week.

    #38971
    Avatarforsch31
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    Cardinals2016

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    @forsch, I said something about the if the Cardinals can’t draft a star in the draft, they either have to trade for them (giving up multiple players) or overpay in free agency.

    You asked when there has ever been a star available in the last 7-8 years when the Cardinals drafted.

    I gave you two examples off the top of my head.

    This is your first error. At the time they were drafted, those players were not known to be stars. They don’t fit what I am asking. Someone like a JD Drew would be close but he never lived up to the hype. No team drafts someone outside of the top 15 players in the draft and EXPECTS them to be a star. They HOPE they will become one.

    Maybe part of my problem is that I misunderstood what you were saying. Maybe you weren’t putting down the Cardinals for not drafting a star player. However, if you weren’t, I don’t think you would have said “the Cardinals don’t know how”, you would have said “the Cardinals have been unable to”.

    You then said nobody ever criticized those moves at the time.

    I gave you examples from the 2016 draft and indicated that was my first year on the board.

    I don’t know whether you commented before the draft – I started my thread after the draft, criticizing the Carlson pick, because it seems like a move where the Cardinals are trying to prove they are smarter than EVERYBODY in baseball, but the reality is it looks like a subpar pick. EVERYBODY on this board attacked me on that thread for voicing my opinions and backing it up with statistical evidence. But I knew that would happen when I created the thread, and did it anyway.

    If I would have said much of anything, it would have been to point out that sometimes picks like Carlson are made to allow us to draft other players that we wouldn’t have a chance to pick otherwise. As was pointed out by Noonan and others at times, we can draft players like Hudson because of underslot signings. You may have been sure that Solak and Neuse would have signed for below slot, but maybe the Cardinals did their due diligence and thought they couldn’t save enough bonus money by drafting one of them. Neither of us know for sure.

    There is strong statistical evidence that the higher the pick, the more likely they are to reach the majors (thus, you should make SURE your first round picks hit). There is strong statistical evidence college picks outperform high school picks on average. There is also statistical evidence that you are more likely to draft superstars from the high school ranks, which is why teams ignore the statistical evidence that college players are better on average.

    The way the draft bonus pools are constructed, teams make less than optimal choices. That leads to trying to game the system. That was the Carlson pick. Everybody defended the move as he signed below slot. I pointed out better players who likely would have signed below slot. Nick Solak was projected for the back of the second round, he went in the back of the second round. He is now the 5th best 2B prospect in baseball.

    No, I am not saying Solak, Bichette and Neuse are stars. They haven’t made it to the majors yet. Indications are, they are going to be at least above average players. I mean, Solak & Bichette are rated in the Top 5 at their positions among prospects.

    I think I covered this.

    1. But basically, what you are saying – anybody that expresses an opinion that does not 100% agree with what the Cardinals do – you are going to attack.
    2. And when your arguments are confronted with facts, you will attack them in a new way.
    3. And when those are rebutted with facts, you will say that is not what you meant.
    4. If somebody doesn’t express an opinion at the time something happens, nobody can claim they knew better. But if they do express an opinion at the time, they can’t foretell the future so they must be attacked.

    Glad we are clear.

    1. No. They will make mistakes and I don’t always agree with their decisions. As a matter of fact, I thought the Leake and Fowler signings were for too long and I expressed those opinions at the time. But I notice that while you feel you can question the Cardinals, you also feel that I can’t question your opinion.
    2. I still haven’t changed my position or seen any “facts” from you that addressed that position.
    3. And I still haven’t seen any “facts” that rebuts my position.
    4. If you feel I am “attacking”, you need to rethink being on a message board.

    BTW, let me know how your scouting gig turns out.

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