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Pham has a higher career ISO, higher career slugging percentage,same career average, better plate discipline (better K-BB%), better base running.
Ozuna’s only advantages in the categories you listed are RBIs, which are so team and hitting order dependent as to be useless for making player comps…and defense, where Marcell has slightly better career numbers (about 4 DRS better if you prorate the innings). The eye test tells me that Pham is at worst an equivalent fielder to Ozuna at a harder position.
Not saying that Ozuna is bad…just that Pham has been better in his career, so it’s far from “beyond silly” to compare them.
Gant would have been pretty useful to have yesterday, although the bullpen acquitted itself nicely. Perhaps he’s going to be ready to fill in this weekend if a Cards starter falters?
Or 280 plate appearances and 1.6 fWAR, 1.7 bpWAR for 3.4-3.5 WAR per 600 PA. Split the difference and call it 1.3 for a 2.7 average. That’s still not an average player and that despite going through a very terrible month. He’s starting to emerge again. I just can’t see how trading Pham improves the team. You won’t get full value on him and his replacement won’t meet his production. Now if someone wants to offer a Moncada, Soto or Torres level prospect for him, fine. But to get another back end top 100 prospect…you’d be better off trading some of those young OF for a star infielder or relief pitcher. IMO.
Pham has been about a 5 win/600 PA player in his big league career. That’s well above an average player, if not star level. If you don’t include last year (which I don’t believe can be discounted), he’s at 3.3 wins/600 PA. Again, that’s above average, although not a star showing. Maybe…maybe one of those guys puts up 3+ wins a year going forward. And if he does, it certainly wouldn’t be a bad look to have a 3-5 win player still in the OF for when Ozuna leaves or there’s an injury.
Lol, I’m not a Yadi worshipper. I just happen to think the guy who’s putting up nearly the same wRC+ with the big league club that his heir is in AAA deserves the benefit of the doubt. It’s not like his defense has fallen off a cliff either. With injuries, the likelihood that Yadi will have more days off when Matheny is replaced, etc…Kelly will get his shot. There are plenty of players who wait for a couple of years and don’t wither on the vine. If Carson is as good as advertised…he won’t either.
Anyway, sorry that you’re so bitter about all of this. If Carson is a relative of yours…my apologies.
His hitting at Memphis is the same as it was last year. Was he “sabotaged” last year as well? He hasn’t performed at the MLB level and likely isn’t as good as Yadi right now, anyway. I think it’s pretty unfair to say that he’s ruined simply because he hasn’t immediately been given the keys to the team while a potential future Hall of Fame player still has plenty left in the tank.
My point is that the Jays will get more in a trade than they will get for the comp pick. Only in a really bad system would a third pick be immediately a top 10 system guy. Ryan Helsley, for example, is a top 10 guy for us and I didn’t put him on my “no trade for Donaldson” list. To add Gyorko (who I really would prefer to trade) or let’s say an OF like Mercado or Arozarena if you like…would easily be more value for the Jays than sitting out the deadline.
That being said, I’m not sure why my hypothesis is so difficult for you to understand. I’m not after JD if he’s clearly still hurt. I’m not interested if the Jays want any of Reyes, Flaherty, Weaver, Hudson, Hicks in return. If the price is decent and he’s not hurt, I think he’s worth a half season risk. I’m not guaranteeing he’ll be a stud for or that he’s going to flop.
Leaving the “Jays can get a better deal” idea out of it for the moment, which would be the better deal for you (assuming healthy guys all around)?
Machado for Flaherty, O’Neill and Gomber
-10% chance <0.5 WAR
-30% chance 1-2 WAR
-30% chance 2-3 WAR
-30% chance 3+ WAROr
Donaldson for Gyorko and Helsley?
-25% chance <0.5 WAR
-35% chance 1-2 WAR
-25% chance 2-3 WAR
-15% chance 3+ WARNow those are my mind’s thoughts of course but the ROS projections for Machado and Donaldson are 2.8 and 2.4 WAR, respectively, so it’s maybe slightly optimistic on MM and pessimistic on JD.
The best case for Holland is to become good enough to be the “closer” that Matheny goes to. That leaves Hicks/Norris for the 7th/8th and moves Gomber, Cecil, Tui, Brebbia, Mayers to spot or long men. Things will get complicated when and if Waino and Leone return, although the way our rotation is going , Waino may be needed as a starter by then.
How many of the draftees jumped into the top 50 right away last year? Or in 2016? I would imagine Brian will have a smattering of new faces throughout…for sure Gorman, Roberts, perhaps Baker and Gil and Gingery (when he signs). The injury guys like Gingery, I’m not sure about quite yet.
Looks like Suter got bumped to this game after the rainout in Pittsburgh last night. Carlos usually does well in Milwaukee; he’s got to be the stopper now and go deep enough into the game to give the bullpen some rest.
Yeah, I understood. I just started with one format and switched to another after the Milwaukee series, haha. I meant 2-2 against MIL, 2-1 CLE, 1-2 ATL, 2-1 the last series w/ARI. So 7-6 overall.
Having most of them at home helps. I’ll be the optimist and say
2/2 with Milwaukee
2/3 from Cleveland
1/3 from Atlanta
2/3 from ArizonaDonaldson may be good and impactful, or he may be nothing. Local beat guys are speculating that they would be happy to get a top 10 prospect from a team for him now. A comp pick for Toronto would most likely not be a top 10 prospect. One of our AAA pitchers (or OF, if you wanna go that route) plus a proven big league player is definitely worth more than a comp pick. So…they have every reason to trade him and hope for the best offer.
Because Wong is better than Travis? And a combination of an MLB player and a B level prospect is most certainly more valuable than a sandwich pick. It’s not even close.
People were saying that Marp clearly had a shoulder injury at one point and that his bat was gone, too. They look like similar bounce back candidates to me.
I’m not saying trade Flaherty or even Weaver for him but if we could do it for Gyorko or Wong and a guy like Poncedeleon or Woodford, I’d do it. The upside is high. Obviously we would want to see and make sure he doesn’t have any lingering injury once he returns from the DL for Toronto before that.
Had Carp and Pham up with the chance to drive in the tying run…but neither comes through. The game and the series are lost and things don’t look great heading to Milwaukee.
That was a really good inning by Holland. Maybe he really was serious that he figured it out in the minors. Very sharp.
Fowler really needed to do something besides pop out there. Not very good situational hitting by the Cards in this game.
Phillies retake the lead on a crushed homer by Herrera. Every one of these games has followed the same pattern.
Pham strikes out with two on to end the Cards 7th. He’ll need another at bat to extend his hit streak.
Cecil hangs one that is banged off the wall for a one out double. I’m not sure why you use Cecil in a tie game but he has to be used eventually I suppose.