Buyers or sellers?

[14NyquisT]

Thank you kindly.

[Bw52]

The Facts are Pham is average.Nothing more.Phammite homerism worship wont change that fact.A 30 year old serviceable player .No more than that.I never said Pham was the main problem.Pham is just highly overrated IMO.Pham should be trade bait...common sense says you dont let a average 30 year old player with a long injury/eye issue history block the path of younger healthier potentially better players.You cant trade Fowler because of his awful contract and he has no value.Ozuna is worth keeping .You certainly dont trade Bader,ONeill or Mercado...So who is the obvious trade option? Real simple..the 30 year old OF.Thats not hating on someone…that`s the logical move IMO.

[14NyquisT]

Since you put it that way… I agree. I guess that Fowler will have to sit on the bench for the rest of his contract. That’s a lot of splinters.

[Bw52]

Will the FO have the guts to actually have Fowler sit on the bench while he is making his huge paycheck/ Will Fowler`s pride allow that?

[Cardinals2016]

Will the FO have the guts to actually have Fowler sit on the bench while he is making his huge paycheck/ Will Fowler`s pride allow that?

My guess is if Fowler sits long enough, he will demand a trade.

Just have to make the decision to put him on the bench.

[forsch31]

You have showed me nothing that says Pham is an average player other than a small sample size of stats on RISP for 2018. If you want to refer to stats early in his career, you will be ignoring a sizeable sample from AAA. If you want to refer to his early major league stats, you will be ignoring his career major league numbers and his largest sample of major league stats. I could also point out that he has had poor luck for a major portion of 2018 as his BABIP during his slide this year has been around .250 which is WAY below his career average.

How do you KNOW that he is blocking the younger players? What do you expect them to do in the majors? I like O’Neill’s power but his batting average will NOT be very close to what Pham’s will be and he will strike out just as much or more. I like Mercado’s tools, as well. However, he didn’t start hitting until last year. He hasn’t shown anything that indicates he will have a better OPS than Pham. He won’t hit as many home runs and he will strike out only a little less than Pham. Bader could be an argument based on his numbers from the minors but he is still way below Pham’s major league numbers. Besides, he needs to be playing RF instead of Fowler.

BW52, do you have anything other than calling me a “homer” or having “blinders”. I don’t recall having to call you anything and as best as I can see, I am giving a very objective view of the situation.

[Bw52]

Forsch – Pham had 564 ABs 143 hits 22 2B 5 3B 26 HR 61 RBI 13 SB 6 CS 69 BB 179 Ks 254 BA for his career other than his career partial season last year.Those are not the stats of a STAR Player.Those are stats of a very average player.He is playing to his norm.Last year was his career year.He fanned nearly 40 % in 2016.He is nearly a career 30 % k guy.He shows nothing more than average.Maybe you think Pham has suddenly turned into a star at 30 years old.I certainly dont.Mercados K rate is down this season .ONeill has shown much greater batting eye since his return to Memphis (40 AB 11 H 2 2B 2 HR 7 RBI 11 BB 12 K .275 BA).Both have pretty good OBP this season at AAA.Once again i ask what is the logical move? Keeping the 30 year who is proving to be average and has injury /eye issues and blocking Mercado/ONeill, even Adolis Garcia and Randy Arozarena?That line of thinking just sets up failure and running in place.What is the systems deepest position? OUTFIELD.So a a smart person doesn`t waste that talent by sitting prospects behind a average veteran.

[stlcard25]

Pham has been about a 5 win/600 PA player in his big league career. That’s well above an average player, if not star level. If you don’t include last year (which I don’t believe can be discounted), he’s at 3.3 wins/600 PA. Again, that’s above average, although not a star showing. Maybe…maybe one of those guys puts up 3+ wins a year going forward. And if he does, it certainly wouldn’t be a bad look to have a 3-5 win player still in the OF for when Ozuna leaves or there’s an injury.

[Bw52]

STLcard25-Pham has had 300 PA this year and he is a 1.0 WAR.last i figured double that makes him a 2.0 WAR if he stays the same.Nothing special.

[stlcard25]

Or 280 plate appearances and 1.6 fWAR, 1.7 bpWAR for 3.4-3.5 WAR per 600 PA. Split the difference and call it 1.3 for a 2.7 average. That’s still not an average player and that despite going through a very terrible month. He’s starting to emerge again. I just can’t see how trading Pham improves the team. You won’t get full value on him and his replacement won’t meet his production. Now if someone wants to offer a Moncada, Soto or Torres level prospect for him, fine. But to get another back end top 100 prospect…you’d be better off trading some of those young OF for a star infielder or relief pitcher. IMO.

[forsch31]

I have never said we should keep him. I feel we should use Pham in a trade for a major upgrade at 3B, SS, 1B or SP. If I could trade Pham for Andrelton Simmons straight up, I would do it. If I could get Arenado or Freeman by trading him, I would. I would not trade him for Machado or Donaldson since they are free agents at the end of this year.

OK, so if you want to ignore his “career year”, why don’t you also ignore Ozuna’s “career year”? After all, you say he is worth keeping and he probably has more trade value. He is only 2 years younger than Pham, has less years of control, and had the following prior to last year:
1856 ABs, 492 hits, 93 2B, 15 3B, 59 HR, 237 RBI, 10 SB, 8 CS, 127 BB, 446 Ks, .265/.314/.427/.741
that is an average of:
464 ABs, 123 hits, 23 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR, 59 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS, 32 BB, 112 Ks. This year’s numbers don’t help that average for most of those numbers.

BTW, league averages in 2018 are as follows:
.245/.317/.406/.723
Pham in 2018: .266/.346/.444/.790
Ozuna in 2018: .283/.327/.426/.754

It took over 900 PAs for the league to catch up to him????

[forsch31]

BW52, who do you want the Cardinals to acquire?

[Bw52]

I like the trade option that has been floated around about one of the Indians young SS prospects (willi Castro AA or Yu Chang AAA ).Either player could offer young defense and decent offense.Castro is in AA and should see the majors late next season.Chang is at AAA and should see the Majors this season.Both are blocked by Linder in Cleveland and Cleveland needs a CF.

[Bw52]

Comparing Ozuna and Pham is beyond silly.Ozuna is a bigger power bat,drives in runs,plays okay defense.Pham plays suspect defense,runs bases poorly,Strikes out at a higher rate than Ozuna,hits for less average and Ozuna is younger by 2.5 years.Ozuna has been a 2 time All-star and a Silver slugger winner.

[stlcard25]

Pham has a higher career ISO, higher career slugging percentage,same career average, better plate discipline (better K-BB%), better base running.

Ozuna’s only advantages in the categories you listed are RBIs, which are so team and hitting order dependent as to be useless for making player comps…and defense, where Marcell has slightly better career numbers (about 4 DRS better if you prorate the innings). The eye test tells me that Pham is at worst an equivalent fielder to Ozuna at a harder position.

Not saying that Ozuna is bad…just that Pham has been better in his career, so it’s far from “beyond silly” to compare them.

[forsch31]

There is nothing that I can find that indicates either of them should be better than Munoz. Neither is a top 100 prospect or even top 10 at SS. The scouting reports I have found so far doesn’t show much different from Munoz’. I guess you could say Chang could rank higher if you can live with his strikeouts.

Do you want to trade him for something less than a top 100 prospect?

Are you saying we should be sellers this year?

[bccran]

The Cards would be fine if players settled into their positions on almost a daily basis. The Fowler trade confused things, because Matt Carpenter belongs at lead off. Is he the ideal lead off man? Probably not because he lacks speed on the base paths. But as far as working the pitcher over and drawing walks, he’s one of the best. That means there is no place on the lineup card right now for Fowler.

Carp – Pham – Martinez – Ozuna – DeJong – Gyorko – Molina – Bader – Pitcher

Not a bad lineup at all. Can we just go with it almost every game now?

[forsch31]

BW52, where are you getting your fielding information? Is it from your eyes or is there some source you are using?

As far as the comparison between Pham and Ozuna, when you look at the actual numbers, it is closer than you paint it. Pham Ks 1 every 3.92 PAs. Ozuna Ks 1 every 4.62 PAs. That is a difference of 23 Ks over the course of 600 PAs. If you look at only the Ks when they are a starter, Pham strikes out 1 more time than Ozuna per every 8 games.

Pham has come up to the plate with 442 runners on base. He has driven in 85 of them. That is 1 RBI per 5.2 men on base. Ozuna has come up to the plate with 1899 runners on base. He has driven in 295 of them. That is 1 RBI per 6.4 men on base. That is the reason we say that RBIs are team driven.

[Bw52]

Keep cherrypicking for Pham.Ask any manger or GM who they would rather have on their team.As for fielding i have seen Pham screw up several times this season on defense.Others have commented also.
Both Indians prospects are in Clevelands top 15 prospects ranking.Trading a 30 year old Pham for young prospect who also can play 3B (Chang) is fine with me.Pham is average .AVERAGE.Not a star.Average.He is on pace for 150 plus strikeouts and barely 60 RBIs.That certainly says average loud and clear.

[Bw52]

Career RISP
PHAM
57 FOR 217 .263
2014 0-1 .000
2015 8-34 .235
2016 6-29 .207
2017 32-105 .305
2018 11-48 .229

CAREER RISP
Ozuna
205 for 689 .298

2013 26-75 .347
2014 39-145 .269
2015 23-93 .247
2016 38-144 .264
2017 57-160 .356
2018 22-72 .310

Now go ahead and tell me Pham and Ozuna are comparable in production.

PHAM also has a -0.5 Dwar this season.For his career he is a 0.1 Dwar player.So how is anthing about his play making him more than a avewrage player.

[Bw52]

Forsch -the two prospect i mentioned are Clevelands # 6 and # 7 ranked prospects in their system.Minor leagueBall has Willi Castro as their #93 prospect.So they are not bums.

[forsch31]

Not cherry picking, BW52, that would be ignoring almost 1/2 of a player’s career just because it doesn’t fit in my argument. I didn’t do that. If I really wanted to cherry pick, I could point out that this year, with the exception of a 10 game stretch in May (42 ABs), Pham has batted:

203 ABs, 59 hits, 7 2B, 11 HR, 24 RBI, 25 BB, 46 K, .291/.371/.488/.859.

I guess the following could also be average since they are heading for 150 strikeouts and less than 100 RBI:
Joey Gallo
Yoan Moncada
Giancarlo Stanton
Paul Goldschmidt
Justin Upton
Lewis Brinson
Cody Bellinger
Billy Hamilton
Bryce Harper
Andrew McCutchen
Matt Carpenter
Nick Castellanos
Edwin Encarnacion
Justin Smoak
Jorge Soler

and I could go on.

[stlcard25]

Bw52, you listed a bunch of opinions that have been proven to be at best, uninformed. You’ve said Pham is average…which he’s not. You backtracked to say that without his excellent “partial season” he’s average. Again, he’s not, statistically. You said Ozuna is laughably better and pointed out a bunch of stats. We have shown that all of your stats actually point to Pham being better.

I don’t even want to comment on your trade proposal but I will. If you were a team GM, all the other GMs would love to have their chance to keep fleecing you over and over again. You really think Pham is worth a middling SS prospect who is *maybe* a marginal back end top 100 guy? Arizona wouldn’t trade AJ Pollock for that crap return and Pollock (who is basically Pham v1.0) is a rental, while Pham has 3 years left of team control. If St Louis traded their best position player for the last two years for that as the centerpiece, they should rightly fire Mo and Girsch.

[forsch31]

BTW, Pham and Ozuna are comparable in production. I would be interested in revisting Pham’s production when he has at least 350 PAs with RISP.

Also, the difference between Pham and Ozuna in career BA with RISP is 7 hits. All Pham needed was 7 more hits over the 217 ABs. In other words, he needed 1 more hit EACH YEAR. Their career OBP with RISP is:

.377 for Pham
.366 for Ozuna

[forsch31]

Bw52

the two prospect i mentioned are Clevelands # 6 and # 7 ranked prospects in their system.

I really don’t care where a player ranks within a certain team’s prospects. If that team happened to have the worst minor league system, acquiring their #5 prospect usually doesn’t matter. I have no idea where Cleveland’s system ranks.

What does matter to me is that we acquire some top end talent. I don’t want to trade for someone who is not ranked in the top 50 prospects, at this time. The Cardinals have enough slightly above average talent. They need some difference makers. I am not impressed by the Cleveland minor league shortstops at this time.

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