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Bikemike–
The Cards have give up at least 9 runs in 5 of their 20 games. The Brewers have only done that once (and in extra innings). The Cubs have done it twice. Our middle relief is a particular weakness, so could be that when our starters have a bad day it will get compounded. But we’d probably lose those games anyway. Maybe?
Bling-
Saggese’ OPS is a tick worse than Church’s. Church has better D. Saggese is 0-10 with 5 K’s and no walks in his last three games. Church is 5 of 11 in his last three with 3 K’s and a walk. Maybe they want Church to get more reps to see if he can hit better than Scott and eventually take over center? Just a guess.
As we begin games on Sunday, we have the rare reverse Pythagorean in the NL Central. The last shall be first, and the first shall be last.
Cincy -11
Cards -10
Brewers +21
Pirates +22
Cubs +28Now…the Cards and Brewers are tied, but the MLB standings I just looked at have us 2nd on the list. I wonder how often that pattern happens?
Brian-
I agree the need will matter. My thought is that Mathews has the highest ceiling, so they’ll be less likely to send him up before they think he is ready, especially in light of what happened when Walker was sent up too early.
Torres has a .508 OBP at Memphis. Pozo has caught all of 6 innings so far this season. Is it time to swap them and see what Torres can bring to the big league team? Maybe give him a run in LF? Church has -0.1 fWAR.
Albert-
I was pleasantly surprised by Hansen’s turn at Memphis and had a similar thought. With Dobbins as 6th starter (perhaps soon higher than that), who is 7th. I’m guessing right now it is Zimmerman, but then it’s a race of Mautz and Hansen. I’d guess that if it’s a tie between the two, Mautz wins since he has the 40-man spot.
Thus far our position players have 2.5 fWAR, whereas we had 17.7 at the end of last year. So our offense seems ahead of last year’s pace?
But our SP have 0.1 this year to 7.6 at the end of last year. Our bullpen has -0.1 this year to 5.1 at last year’s end.
With such a weak 2nd half of the batting order, I’d lost sight of how much the problems are focused around the pitching.
The Cards have Thursdays off through and including April 23, but starting April 24 they play 17 games in a row. My bet is that Dobbins gets the 6th and 12th game to keep giving the starters some extra rest early. That would mean an April 29 debut. He started his rehab March 31, so that just barely fits in the window when he could return.
Then they can make a decision about which of Dobbins, Pallante, or Leahy goes to the pen or goes to Memphis. Or perhaps someone will have a health problem. Leahy and Pallante would both have four more starts by then.
I think Brian is right with not needing Pages and Pozo.
Short run I’d bring up Crooks and send Pages to AAA to be the 3rd catcher called up in case of injury. Give Crooks the time Pages has gotten. I’d also drop Pozo from the 40-man and add a bat from Memphis, but I’m unsure just now which bat. See what Crooks can give you, and if Crooks and Herrera can cover the C, with Herrera getting enough DH time to get to 150 starts a year (maybe 60 at C, 90 at DH), and Crooks getting some DH time too (maybe 100 at C, 30 at DH) would work. If so, then Bernal might be that trade piece bling mentioned.
I like Bob Reed’s idea of moving Rodriguez to 3B.
Fermin is on a pace to have 27 ABs over the course of the season.
Albert-
Agreed both re Winn at 8 and the absence of a good option at 6. Baez, Noot, or Crooks as the most plausible options?
And Herrera reached base three times. If Wetherholt, Herrera, Burly, Walker and Gorman all get going, that is not a bad 1-5.
Alas, McGreevy needs more pitches for the 6th, so is up to 92. Time to take some antacid, folks. The bullpen needs three innings.
McGreevy is at 72 pitches through 5. He has gotten a lot more efficient after the first. Could a really efficient 6th get him back out for the 7th?
Nice to have a 1-2-3 inning. Any sense of who is available out of the pen? Graceffo and Soriano both threw two yesterday. They used Romero, Bruihl, and Stanek both Sunday and Monday. O’Brien, Svanson, and Shuster are available, but which of the other five? I’d hate to rely on Svanson and Shuster to hold a lead. We need McGreevy to go deep.
I was there for the whole thing. Not a ton to report that hasn’t been said here. I changed caps and attribute the win to that. The Cards fan couple sitting next to me left after the Cards’ 7th and told me that it was all on me and that I’d do what I could. I wore a parka and was cold and don’t think I’ve had that experience at a baseball game since Candlestick in the early ’80s.
Lots of hope for Soriano and Graceffo to support O’Brien and Romero. Naughton at some point can be the 2nd lefty. Stanek will be there trying to get his act together. The other two?
Herrera needs to start hitting better.
Only 10 games, but Walker is second in the NL among position players in bWAR just now. I know, I know. Wait for a couple months to see if it lasts, but still. He’s 3rd in fWAR among position players, and Wetherholt is 14th. McGreevy is 17th among NL pitchers.
I’m a bit confused by the Rincon promotion. I’d think right now the 5 starters at Memphis would be Fitts, Matthews, Dobbins, Mautz, and Zimmerman. Are they going to a 6-man rotation? Or is Rincon depth in case someone only goes an inning or two again? Or is one of the 5 being dropped from the rotation?
jnevel wrote: “And are we developing pitchers to fill in all the gaps that need filling?” That’s a reminder that a lot of the rebuild is happening on the farm. One could imagine a rotation in a couple years that is Doyle, Cijntje, Franklin, Matthews, and Roby, in which case all the current rotation is less than key. That said, it seems unlikely all 5 of those guys will work out, so I find myself hoping two or three of Liberatore, McGreevy, Pallante, Leahy, Fitts, and Dobbins work out as 3-5 starters and that they get two or three top end starters from the 5 I mentioned above (or a surprise like Dohm or Molina). The first outings for Cijntje and Franklin were encouraging, but they are single starts.
I agree with jnevel about the developments among position players. Walker is at .7 fWar, Wetherholt .5. Figure that Herrera and Gorman are going to hit and Winn will hit well enough given his D, and that is 5 roster spaces, with Crooks, Baez, and Jordan at AAA to fill in some more.
Not sure I have a lot to add from the park. It really was an amazingly small crowd, and I bet 40% were Cards fans. Tomorrow is supposed to be colder. I was fine with just my Cards sweatshirt till the 5th, then needed a jacket. Tomorrow it’ll be a parka. And I’ll change caps for luck. The encouraging things…
Walker as so many have noted. Two hard hit balls the other way after fanning the first two ABs. Lots has been said above on the thread about his swing decisions. I’m wondering how much he’s learning that if things go bad for a bit they don’t need to spiral. That could be huge.
I know Gorman’s BA is not so high, but I thought for sure that one to RF was out of the park. And he hung in against that left in the 9th, even if he eventually grounded out. Wetherholt, Urias, and Saggese all got on base three times tonight, and iirc Saggese scorched one just foul. I think Saggese is now your LF. He won’t be a long term solution, but could he develop into a good bench man?
It is a pleasure to watch Scott play D.
Pallante rallied after that awful first.
I didn’t notice anything about Winn that suggested he was hurt too bad.
Then there is the bad….Beyond not having enough trustworthy relievers, I didn’t get the decision to run Stanek back out there when you just grabbed the lead and he’s going 2nd night in a row. Why not Graceffo there with O’Brien closing? Brian flags the lack of 40-man options. I wonder if Shuster and Fernandez get cut and they add Blewett and Naughton, sending Svanson to AAA to figure it out. I know that this is a development year, but I’d think you’d want to keep the kids’ spirits up by being able to bring home a three run lead in the 8th.
Looked like they were getting great jumps on Pallante.
Herrera looked more lost while batting than I expected given the last game. It was interesting to see how far to RF the Nats shifted their CF for him the first couple times out, whereas they played Walker pretty straight up.
I’ll be at games 1 and 2. After being in the 80s over the weekend and headed to 77 on Saturday, it will get down to the low 40s tonight and a slight chance of a freeze Tuesday night, so I’m going to take my parka with, just like when I used to go to games at Candlestick. I’ll try to bring home a couple winners.
Looks like the rain should hit the park around 4 Eastern. Could be a very late finish to this game today.
Church is no 0 for 18 (with one walk) since that first game. Do you give Koperniak one shot at a breakthrough until Noot is healthy? .969 OPS in those 17 ABs. Church seems less the “give him lots of runway” guy than Walker or Scott.
