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The Cardinals have three pitchers that can take over for Lynn – Reyes, Weaver and Flaherty…they will also probably have Hudson, Gallen and Gomber near MLB-ready…
You either trade Lynn at the deadline (the smart move given the Cardinals record and the ability to control what you get back), or you give him a QO and hope he declines it and take your post-second round pick.
You don’t want him playing out one year on a QO and the Cardinals don’t need to sign him to a multi-year deal.
The Cardinals are going to have to unclog the 40 man prior to the Rule 5 so they can protect players and not lose them without receiving anything in return (as they’ve done the last two years)…
That means at least one of the outfielders has to be traded…
The Cardinals may be selling low on Grichuk, but what makes you think he is going to increase his value such that he can get an awesome return? The Cardinals didn’t exactly give up a lot to acquire him and he’s done nothing the past two years to show he is going to command a great return…
Now this would be a trade I can see the Cardinals asking for, and getting, Carter Kieboom back. The Nationals are in win-now mode, Pham is having a career year, and Rosenthal is controllable for another year…
I could see the Cardinals getting a package of Kieboom + Nick Raquet + one other pitcher…
Of course, the Cardinals front office would actually have to face the reality that we are a sub .500 team and need to sell this year…
I thought the Cardinals should have targeted somebody like AJ Minter, who was ranked about the same as Gant at the time, but has much better stuff and, at worst, would probably be a very good reliever.
Gant is at his ceiling (AAAA), and Ellis doesn’t project much better, if at all. Braves fans love the fact they weeded out the system and took a flier on a kid with a much higher ceiling…
https://markbradley.blog.myajc.com/2017/07/25/heres-why-the-braves-traded-jaime-garcia-asset-acquisition/
Here is how Keith Law described it:
“Atlanta gave up two fringe arms (Chris Ellis and John Gant) for Garcia, got a win-plus (WAR-wise) worth of value (from) him and flipped him for a teenage pitching prospect with some upside a few months later. That seems like a win to me.”You yawned at the Braves prospect they got for the last two months of Garcia’s contract, but were excited by what we got back for the last year-and-a-half for Adams? Really?
Here’s the deal – a major leaguer is always worth more than an unheard of guy in A-ball just because the major leaguer actually made it through all the levels…If the Cardinals had gotten 2-3 lottery picks in A-ball, great. But they got one, who can’t field.
The P-D writers think the Cardinals are going to do the usual, and acquire a reliever…
“I do feel if you look at the last few weeks finding some consistency in our bullpen may be top priority because for the most part the rotation has been strong.”
“I think that there’s a chance that some of the things this roster needs to see happen we might be better off addressing in the offseason than trying to do something right now,”
“The Cardinals are actively looking for a reliever to add to a bullpen that has been tagged with 20 of the Cardinals’ losses.”
If the Cardinals do their usual, and do nothing but add some mid-grade reliever, this is nothing but putting lipstick on a pig. They are below .500, the Cubs are on fire and already have made one major upgrade. The front office began the year by punting on the season, they should just admit they punted on the season and try to have a better team for next year.
Fowler was playing for a contract (which he got) in one of the smallest ballparks. No, the ballpark factor does not adequately account for the difference in size between Wrigley and Busch…
I would have put Ozuna in left and left Grichuk/Pham in center (having a league average CF is not bad).
Seeing how Fowler is playing CF in St. Louis, I would guess Ozuna would be doing much better as a CF in STL than Fowler (it’s hard to do worse)…I have come to the conclusion Fowler was only interested in defense last year because it cost him money in the 2015 offseason, and now that he got more money than he could have ever dreamed of, he doesn’t care…
Nobody’s defensive numbers are going to look good in Coors field – it’s sooooo big (and ballpark factors don’t adequately adjust and statistically, are not the right approach anyway). I don’t think the Cardinals ever really considered Blackmon either, because Colorado was known to be asking for a preposterous haul…
We’ll never know. The only thing we know for sure is that about two weeks after the Cardinals walked away from discussions about Ozuna, Mozeliak said every team he had talked to had asked about Reyes. Now, again, in negotiations, teams usually start by asking for more than they know they can get, and settle for something less.
But when you look at Mozeliak’s trade history, and see that only once in ten years has he given up multiple prospects for a single player in a trade, you pretty much reach the conclusion that there was no way the Cardinals were ever going to trade for Ozuna or Blackmon or any other OF with range and power. So, we are either stuck with Dexter Fowler for 4 more years or we are going to have to eat some of his contract to make him go away.
He raised his batting average the 20 pts the first 10 days after the move. It’s happened the last three years. It’s clearly in his head….
Marlins have no use for Carpenter – they have Prado at 3rd, Gordon at 2nd and Bour at 1st (making $500k)…If you want to give them back a bad contract, it would have to be Fowler…though that will up the prospect cost you have to give up as well…Perhaps if they trade Gordon they can use Carpenter at 2B, but Gordon is much better defensively and they are about the same money wise…
I agree – I think the front office places too much value in average guys (Piscotty)…I hope that as depth builds in the minors they are more willing to flip guys for assets and hold actual competitions for starting jobs…I think all of the current outfielders can be upgraded.
Carpenter was batting .209 when they moved him to leadoff. I don’t remember what his OBP was, but I am pretty sure it was under .350. So, he has raised his BA by nearly 40 pts and his OBP by nearly 30. Fowler was about 10 pts ahead of Carpenter when they made the switch. He has also improved his numbers. Fowler and Carpenter have been nearly identical the entire year in terms of hitting, so saying we’d be better off with Carpenter at 3 doesn’t hold water, especially since both of them improved after the switch.
Fowler was never worth the $16.5 million they are giving him – they did that because they boxed themselves into a corner saying they were going to get a CF to improve the defense, and they refused to trade prospects to acquire a legitimate CF. So, they overpaid Fowler.
Biggest Disappointments:
Front Office – choosing path of least resistance last offseason, going with short bench first third of season’ – setting the tone for the season with their lack of interest in improving
Management – naming Peralta as starter at 3B for no reason other than his contract; I can’t state this enough – but if players see someone win a competition, and then the starting job goes to someone based on their contract, you can’t say you are trying to put the best team on the field
Defense – Fowler, Wong
Overall Disappointment –
1. Diaz
2. Oh
3. Cecil
4. Fowler – BA/OBP are below career averages, defense is terrible, seems like he just doesn’t care at times
5. Grichuk though I kind of suspected this type of season
6. Piscotty – people want to give him a mulligan, but his mother is only going to get worse, are we going to give him a mulligan the next 3-4 years?THE CARDINALS ARE BELOW .500.
There is absolutely no reason to be buyers this year, unless you get the deal of a lifetime for a star with multiple years of control.
Actually, they have been shopping him, but why do the Cardinals need him with all our pitching coming up the pipeline?
Let’s see – Mozeliak is the one that refused to bring people up from AAA and chose to play with a short bench the first third of the season…
Somebody chose to award Jhonny Peralta the starting 3B out of spring training, even though he was terrible at it last year and did nothing to “win” it in spring training.
Mo is the one that chose to go after Dexter Fowler to upgrade the defense – when Dexter Fowler is one of the worst defenders on the team, if not the worst.
Maybe when Mo starts trying to actually improve the roster, and people actually have to win their jobs in spring training, Mo can talk about how people should look in the mirror.
At this point, it’s worth exploring just about everyone if the trade value coming back is sufficient. In some cases (Grichuk), even if it is not sufficient…
Yeah – there’s no guarantee either one of them ever does anything. Marco might go on and have a great career. But this is a trade, from the Cardinals perspective, I would do every single time. From the Mariners perspective, well, the reaction in Seattle isn’t so good right now.
And yet, the Cardinals couldn’t find any suitable outfielders last offseason, so they gave Fowler $6 million per year more than he is worth….
Marco was not going anyhere in this organization and his ceiling is considered to be a #4/#5 starter…
I think the Cardinals clearly won this trade. This was the direction I thought they would go in last offseason – trading minor leaguers for minor leaguers because the acquisition cost for MLB players has gotten so high…
Now, the question becomes who gets traded as part of a larger package – O’Neill or Bader?
You’d have to think Grichuk will be traded soon…
The 8th inning was really entertaining today – if you like walks…I think our first six runs of the inning came on three hits…Nice to see the OBP machine come together!!!
Maybe Girsch is a better negotiator than Mozeliak, but after seeing what the Cardinals got from the Braves for Garcia and Adams, unless a bidding war breaks out, I don’t see the Cardinals extracting maximum value for Lynn…I am sure other teams have studied Mozeliak’s trading patterns and will probably offer something comparable to what he would offer them…
