July 24, 2017 at 5:56 pm #28543
The problem with 2016 was position musical chairs. It’s also been a problem this year. Wouldn’t it be nice if we could settle into an everyday 8? With each player settled into their place in the hitting lineup.July 24, 2017 at 8:45 pm #28552
He raised his batting average the 20 pts the first 10 days after the move. It’s happened the last three years. It’s clearly in his head….July 24, 2017 at 8:54 pm #28554
We’ll never know. The only thing we know for sure is that about two weeks after the Cardinals walked away from discussions about Ozuna, Mozeliak said every team he had talked to had asked about Reyes. Now, again, in negotiations, teams usually start by asking for more than they know they can get, and settle for something less.
But when you look at Mozeliak’s trade history, and see that only once in ten years has he given up multiple prospects for a single player in a trade, you pretty much reach the conclusion that there was no way the Cardinals were ever going to trade for Ozuna or Blackmon or any other OF with range and power. So, we are either stuck with Dexter Fowler for 4 more years or we are going to have to eat some of his contract to make him go away.July 24, 2017 at 11:02 pm #28570
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Actually Ozuna’s defensive numbers were about the same as Fowler’s last year and below Grichuk. Guy can really hit though. But a left fielder not a center fielder. Blackmon also did not have good defensive numbers.
I have to add the bullpen as a huge disappointment. I never saw Oh as a permanent closer. Rosy has been brilliant at times and awful at others. Bowman is a Maness type guy and like the little girl with the curl. When he is good he is very, very good and when he is bad he is awful.
We may be too hard on Piscotty. Not sure he has been 100% any time this year. Fowler hindered by injuries as well.
Yadi has slowed a little on D. He doesn’t block the balls in the dirt as as well as he used to and his throws to second are often of the left side of the bag. Still one of the best catchers around.July 24, 2017 at 11:16 pm #28577
Fowler was playing for a contract (which he got) in one of the smallest ballparks. No, the ballpark factor does not adequately account for the difference in size between Wrigley and Busch…
I would have put Ozuna in left and left Grichuk/Pham in center (having a league average CF is not bad).
Seeing how Fowler is playing CF in St. Louis, I would guess Ozuna would be doing much better as a CF in STL than Fowler (it’s hard to do worse)…I have come to the conclusion Fowler was only interested in defense last year because it cost him money in the 2015 offseason, and now that he got more money than he could have ever dreamed of, he doesn’t care…
Nobody’s defensive numbers are going to look good in Coors field – it’s sooooo big (and ballpark factors don’t adequately adjust and statistically, are not the right approach anyway). I don’t think the Cardinals ever really considered Blackmon either, because Colorado was known to be asking for a preposterous haul…July 25, 2017 at 8:15 am #28583
If we have Molina, Carpenter, Wong, DeJong, Gyorko,
Pham, Fowler, and Grichuk/Piscotty on an everyday
basis, where do you fit in a new position player secured before the deadline?
Who sits?July 25, 2017 at 8:21 am #28586
Once again… WAR is exponential on value not linear.
A 2 WAR player is not twice as valuable as a 1 WAR they are worth much more.July 25, 2017 at 8:25 am #28587
You have to deal one… Which is why I keep saying we have to deal away before we acquire someone or we not only lose the value of players dealt but the value of the players we have to give away afterwards.
See matt adams for what happens when a player has no place on your team.July 25, 2017 at 8:41 am #28590
If you want an illustration on what I said above about WAR… since I am crap at a lot of math and in this case exponential regressions I will up front say that I am just kinda throwing numbers out there but this will get my point across.
I repeat this math isnt accurate. It just gets my point across.
First WAR : 1 million
Second WAR : 3 million
Third WAR : 9 million
This is per year.
Players like mike trout are worth so much more than their contracts that even at 30 million per year they are stupidly cheap. Lebron james is the same way in the nba. Value is exponential at the high end.
Players like Dexter fowler should never be touched with a ten foot pole. Middling players who do not have the talent to exceed value paid.July 25, 2017 at 8:54 am #28594
That’s a super point. So if it’s your biggest disappointment it may not bring back what you want in return? Diaz might be in that category. If it’s someone who just hasn’t achieved a possible upside, it might be better, but you may regret it long term….ala Wong,
Piscotty, or Grichuk? Would Grichuk, Piscotty, Lynn, and Oh for Ozuna work? You’d still have Bader and O’Neill ready at Memphis if Pham went down. Plus Adolis Garcia, Sierra, Arozarena, Mercado, Carlson, etc. coming through the system.July 25, 2017 at 9:11 am #28596
Dexter was sort of a stop-gap, insurance type signing after we let Holliday walk, that has turned out worse than expected in the short run due to him being a little banged up this year, and then Matheny doing his usual lineup messing up routine. Since then, the signing is looking worse as Pham is healthy and gotten to play and show his value, Bader is doing well, and we just traded for a hot-shot AAA outfielder. Not too mention the extension to Piscotty, and the ever-present Grichuk who hits homers at a reasonably good pace, enough to keep us all thinking maybe he could be as good as Pham. Then there is Martinez who is similar to Grichuk – can look real good at times, good enough to make you think that if he plays regularly he could put up some numbers.
Great comments and illustration on WAR. Those guys that put up 7+ WAR are incredibly valuable. We had that in Pujols for years. We got much more value from him than we spent. Which brings up another point – history has shown that often a high WAR guy like Albert gets compensated more by a team he leaves, than the team he was when at his best. In other words, Albert is not unusual in that the team that got a bargain for him does not over-compensate him during his declining years. Often another team “pays” for the value that went to his prior team. Right now, we are paying Dexter’s 2016 value, that went to the Cubs. But then the Cubs are paying Jason Heyward’s 2015 value, that went to us.
It’s good to see that everyone is now on board with Diaz as a disappointment. I commented how bad he looked about a week before he was sent out, and there were quite a few responses saying basically that I did not know what I was talking about. But watching him, it was obvious he was lost – he would weakly flail at pitches well out of the zone, and was trying to pull them at that. Now it looks like DeJong is the man at short. DeJong and Wong kind of has a ring to it – they look like a good, young DP combo for the next few years.July 25, 2017 at 9:42 am #28600
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No one disagreed with you that Diaz looked off, but that he could still be a serviceable SS in the long run. He is always going to be somewhat valuable given how little he strikes out and now his bat has picked up at Memphis.July 25, 2017 at 9:44 am #28601
It’s really interesting with DeJong. He was drafted as a third baseman out of Illinois State in the 4th round in 2015. He played 62 games at 3B at Johnson City and Peoria that stub season. In 2016, he played 112 games at 3B and only 11 games at SS during the season for Springfield. In the AFL last Fall, he played 17 games at SS exclusively. So he had played 28 games at SS going into ST this season. And now he’s the starting SS for a team trying to make the playoffs? Is that catching lightening in a bottle, or just the best we have for that vital position at this point?July 25, 2017 at 11:13 am #28614
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Sure he’s the best we have…. no “just” needed. He continues to impress more and more everyday. A ss with some pop that is improving in the field is a valuable commodity. Who would you like to see there… Cal Ripken or Ernie Banks.July 25, 2017 at 12:09 pm #28624
I like dejong but if he doesnt learn some patience he could end up having a grichuk year or two. Or four.
At ss he can get away with some of that … If he has to move he could end up doing what diaz is this year.
Honestly a huge part of me wants to sell high on him. He has all the hallmarks of the players who have a decent debut then fall off a cliff fast and hard.July 25, 2017 at 7:45 pm #28669
I guess the biggest question is whether DeJong can play adequate SS defense at the major league level. Now and/or in the future.July 25, 2017 at 7:48 pm #28670
So if you can’t name who we had available to trade, how can you be upset that we didn’t make a trade?July 25, 2017 at 8:30 pm #28677
DeJong looks like the real deal to me, but we will see how he progresses. He needs to learn better plate discipline, but that is not unusual for a guy just starting out.
On Diaz, after I commented about how bad he was playing, the reponses were that he was just fine and was our everyday shortstop. But man, you could just see that something was wrong with him – I wonder of it has something more to do than just baseball.July 25, 2017 at 9:56 pm #28706
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How do.you come to the conclusion that a plater signed to a 5 year contract with a no.trade clause is “stop gap”?July 26, 2017 at 1:27 pm #28764
I would say that Fowler has been our biggest disappointment. We signed him to do a little more than he has, so far. Although, at the time of the signing, I can’t fault the Cardinals for signing him. I do disagree with the term of the signing and a no-trade clause.
On December 9th, when we signed Fowler, things looked very different. Pham was coming off a bad year. Grichuk showed some signs of promise but other signs of struggles. Holliday and Moss were free agents. We had not signed JA Garcia, yet. Bader struggled in his first taste of AAA. Mercado had struggled in the low minors. We hadn’t seen Arozarena play in the states, yet. Sierra hadn’t played above low A ball. 7 months later, I hope Fowler is willing to waive his no-trade clause either next year or in 2019. Or Matheny finally wakes up and realizes that Fowler is not our best CF or may not even be a top 3 OF for us and starts playing him accordingly.July 26, 2017 at 1:57 pm #28765
Maybe a “bridge” type signing would be a better way to phrase it. I think the club knew the last couple of years of the deal could be over-payments, but wanted to have greater insurance on the next 2-3 years.
July 26, 2017 at 2:14 pm #28767
- This reply was modified 2 years ago by bicyclemike.
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That is still one long bridge.July 26, 2017 at 4:51 pm #28788
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Fowler’s career OPS is .788 and his 2017 OPS is .785.
He had his OPS up to .844, but has struggled since coming back from these injuries.July 26, 2017 at 5:14 pm #28792
I will say I hated the Fowler signing then and I hate it just as much now. Fowler is not the type of guy that will push the ball club over the top, even though we are paying him like he is. To be honest, I said the same thing about Matt Holiday, and I was 100% wrong about that. Lets hope Fowler turns out the same way.July 26, 2017 at 5:51 pm #28793
When you look at his OPS closer, you see he has an OBP that is 31 points below his career average and a SLG that is 28 points above his career average. He is on a pace that would have him hit far more HRs than he ever had before. We were looking for his average and OBP. The HR pace seems to be a little unsustainable although it would be nice.
His OPS dropped quite a bit from when he got back until now because of his SLG, mainly. From his high point on June 18, his average has dropped 13 points. His OBP has dropped 11 points and his SLG has dropped 48 points.
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