July 24, 2017 at 9:54 am #28459
Ok…im going to get flamed for even posting this, but i dont care really as i have every right to want to discuss this as the people who want to bash have in posting what they do
So…why not buy?
Cardinals have played a LOT of close games, and lost a lot of close games, they have been competitive most of the year with just about everyone they have played
Since the AS break we could have won every single game with just a few things going our way
So…why not buy?
Let’s look at what we need and what is available and what it might cost
I’m not going to go too deep as no one will care and probably wont even participate in the discussion instead just trying to find ways to attack me
Still…we need at least 1 hitter, maybe two
better defense will always help too
we need to shore up the bullpen
So…instead of looking long term at big time players who will cost crazy prospects and potential huge money why not just go for it THIS year and reevaluate…the division is still for the taking despite Quintana being added to the Cubs..
The JD Martinez trade got me really thinking about this, then the Phelps deal too…as the value that was received for both of those players was pretty crazily low…so then why not buy if it doesnt cost much?
JD Martinez was had (who is better than Bruce) for maybe 1 top middlingly decent prospect
Phelps was had for 4 low nothign prospects (at this point)
who to target?
to me…it’s 3 players all FA’s at the end of the year…all have flaws but all could have nice impact
-Cozart hits for good average and plays very good defense even has some good pop…. yes it is interdivision BUT it’s for 2 months and the Reds need every pitching prospect they can get… offer a lower level pitching prospect or a higher level one who is blocked…maybe Arturo Reyes? Mayers? Someone we won’t miss too much but coudl still be useful to the Reds
-Bruce power hitting lefty RFer with a cannon arm and decent defense…Mets won’t get much with JD lowering the value…they wont keep him or offer qualifying offer so he can be had…offer an OF prospect…we have several and maybe too many…picking one won’t be easy but for 2 months of Bruce we wont have to give up a top one…maybe Mercado? or maybe he’d be too much? maybe a middle infielder would work too…
-Neshek…been untouchable this year and has a good history with us…could close or set up and could do whatever is asked…plus…i think we could probably get him to stay in the offseason in the window before FA opens as he definitely has a soft spot for us, and we will need another reliever this offseason anyways when Ph leaves…probably the hardest to get as he has a huge market for him and the Phillies will take advantage of that…not sure what we’d give up but we could offer a good lower level pitching prospect
So those 3…maybe lose 1 good pitching prospect farther down the pipe, 1 decent outfield or middle infield prospect, and 1 higher level lower rung pitching prospect….now i’d expect all these deals to probably include other names too to fill out the deal…but i cant imagine they’d be huge losses…
Neshek could walk in and take the closer gig without trying i think..but at worse he shores up the bullpen immediately
Bruce adds impressive lefty power to the middle of the lineup, Cozart coudl come in and be a #3 style hitter for us with his high average…both make our defense better if just a little less athletic in RF
YES… it would displace DeJong… YES it would displace Grichuk or Piscotty or whomever is in RF…. YES it would means some players would be sent down for a month until September… I know all of that… BUT that also would mean it could help the bench a lot…AND it would tighten up the offense ….yes it woudl cause some issues but they woudl be good problems to have…
Am i aiming too low with what it woudl take to get them? yeah…probably….but Phelps (who is good) and MARtinez (who is better than Bruce) got almost nothing so why not aim a little low…
YES it is losing those prospects for a small shot at the playoffs… but these players are not bad…having good years…and have a pretty good track for being good producers…and ALL would be GOOD for the clubhouse…all are veterans with good histories and have good histories….
PLUS we do have some clutter on the 40 man and in the system…perhaps moving some middling prospects now for some value right now has some worth too…instead of losing them to the rule 5 draft…
who the traded players are is not the point…not the specific players i mentioned… the point is that we could do a little pruning from our farm…and get a good shot at the division and a decent punchers chance in the playoffs with a few additions…
if we were getting blown out every game it would be one thing…but we arent…we are playing close games and one hit or two or one stopper reliever away from being ahead in this division….and the playoffs are always who is hot…. why cant that be us?
I am not saying this is what I would do… only that i think it is worth a discussion…the potential loss in value normally woudl make me not even consider this move worth the discussion….but in light of low value for rentals…i reevaluate….these deals wouldn’t make up for all the other problems this year or the future…but it could be a nice smack in the face at complacency and underperforming…
now flame away..July 24, 2017 at 10:24 am #28469
gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
I say we punt on this season by seeing what we can get for Lynn, Oh, and whoever else might have some value, then try again for 2018. Except this time, we need to have a SERIOUS off season instead of the usual low hanging fruit, path of least resistance, and nibbling around the edges approach that we usually have.July 24, 2017 at 10:33 am #28473
That.July 24, 2017 at 10:48 am #28480
THE CARDINALS ARE BELOW .500.
There is absolutely no reason to be buyers this year, unless you get the deal of a lifetime for a star with multiple years of control.July 24, 2017 at 10:54 am #28481
… And in 4th place.July 24, 2017 at 10:55 am #28482
SoonerinNCParticipantPaid - Annual
You are right about a lot of games that could have been won with more power and a better bullpen but I don’t think any of those guys would help except Cozart. We would have to send Wong because we should not even think of getting rid of DeJong without getting something pretty substantial in return. I could live with Cozart at shortstop and DeJong at second but I can also live with DeJong at shortstop.
I think the price for Cozart would be very high. And no guarantee that he would extend with the Cardinals. He is coming off an all-star campaign and probably would go very high in the free agent market.
We dabbled with Neshek at closer when we had him with poor results. I don’t see him a better closer than what we have.July 24, 2017 at 10:57 am #28483
below .500 in 4th place and just play base baseball there is zero, ZERO reason to try to add to this dumpster.July 24, 2017 at 11:38 am #28489
They should be sellers. Lynn will be traded. I would also trade Rosenthal and Carpenter. A desperate team may overpay for them. Carpenter is a DH. We need to cut our losses with him.July 24, 2017 at 11:52 am #28493
Jager, I don’t think I would want to be in on any rentals unless they were low hanging fruit type of deals. I’m not sure those teams would go for them.
That said, if there was a controllable guy who would be an upgrade for next year and even beyond, I would support going for that. Not a lot of those guys out there though and the trade would be painful. But a shake up is definitely needed.July 24, 2017 at 11:52 am #28494
Jager, I keep teetering between optimism and struggling to see how this team can pull it out. I think the Cubs are going to make it VERY difficult to win the division and considering we are 9 games out of the last wild card spot, I am failing to see how we make the playoffs without a lot of luck.
To make a realistic run at it, you are really close to our needs. I think if we could trade Oh or Siegrist to acquire something, we do it. I would alternately consider moving Rosenthal down to Memphis and stretch him out as a starter. Otherwise, I don’t think our relievers are too bad as it stands today. However, Matheny needs to do a closer by committee. Duke looks good, Brebbia looks pretty good, Cecil is pitching decent. If Oh and Rosenthal could get their mojo back, that would be helpful.
Bruce may be an alright acquisition at an extremely low cost. Otherwise, you aim for Stanton, even with his salary. I don’t want to spend much to buy a rental so Cozart would also need to be cheap. An overpay on Andrelton Simmons would be my preference. Maybe Wong and Diaz and throw in a lower level pitching prospect. We could use DeJong and Carpenter at 2B.July 24, 2017 at 12:03 pm #28495
Even though we are below .500 and in 4th place, we are only 4.5 games out of first. The Cubs have shown how easily that can become first place in about 10 days when a team gets hot.
However, I don’t think we go all in as buyers. I think we go in as a buy-low buyer and sell-high seller.
July 24, 2017 at 12:10 pm #28497
- This reply was modified 2 years ago by forsch31.
Carpenter is a disaster at 2B. He should only play 1B. He is DH I would trade him.July 24, 2017 at 12:23 pm #28499
DeJong would be the primary 2Bman. Carpenter would only be there as a UT type player. Although, I would rather use him as a piece in a trade for Stanton. The Marlins would be saving over $10 million a year in salary, know they wouldn’t HAVE to pay more than 3 years and still have a good hitter. Although, Carpenter would have to probably play 3B or they would have to move him on to somewhere else.July 24, 2017 at 12:55 pm #28506
Could you please explain the thought process behind this? Carpenter is 8th among 1B in DRS and 12th in UZR/150. This would put him solidly above average defensively and he’s at least average with the bat too (14th in wRC+). I feel like this is a tired narrative that needs to be addressed so we can all stop it with the Matt Carpenter trashing.July 24, 2017 at 1:14 pm #28507
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Over the weekend, I dug into the SABR Defensive Index for the first half. It incorporates DRS and UZR as well as Runs Effectively Defended, Defensive Regression Analysis and Total Zone Rating.
In SDI, Carpenter ranks sixth among NL first basemen. Last year at 3B, he was 11th of 15.July 24, 2017 at 1:18 pm #28508
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Could you please explain the thought process behind this? Carpenter is 8th among 1B in DRS and 12th in UZR/150. This would put him solidly above average defensively and he’s at least average with the bat too (14th in wRC+). I feel like this is a tired narrative that needs to be addressed so we can all stop it with the Matt Carpenter trashing.
I don’t get it and every time I mention these same numbers the folks that bash his defense (at 1B mind you) don’t have an answer, but will post about it in another thread a few days later. It’s nerve-racking to say the least.July 24, 2017 at 1:22 pm #28509
Thanks for that, Brian. I think people are too down on Carpenter for two reasons…1) Early season when he was struggling with the glove, and people can’t forget that. 2) Some bad luck in the BABIP category this year. He’s running a .273 when he’s a career .323 in that category. He’s still making good contact, just hitting a lot of balls right at people. I don’t have the time to calculate it right now but with a normal BABIP I believe he’d be running around a .270/.410/.470 line and with the defense he plays, that’s a pretty dang good first baseman.July 24, 2017 at 1:26 pm #28510
I did not bash or trash Carpenter at all. He should only play 1B. He is better suited as a DH so I would trade him. You can disagree and that’s fine but I hope they trade him. I doubt they will so then make Matheny play him only at 1B.July 24, 2017 at 1:29 pm #28511
I am not down on Carpenter. I think he is future is as a DH and since as you described him he is “pretty dang good” 1B then he can get us a good return.July 24, 2017 at 1:50 pm #28514
We look back at the games since the AS break
-2 losses to the Bucs… both walk offs that could have been won with only a slightly better bullpen..
IMO NEshek gets us at least one of those wins and maybe both (not just for his play but how his play effects use of others)
– 2 losses to the Mets…Leake loss is pretty much a L no matter how you look at it, though you could argue that we did have 10 hits…and just didnt get the runs in…that being said, a good average bat like Cozart and power bat of Bruce could have made that game a lot closer…second loss to the MEts is a brain fart by Rosy..BUT with NEshek I think we may not have been in that situation…still…i think we get the Rosy one back…as i think Neshek could have helped as well as two good bats get us an extra run in there
-2 Cubs losses…we all watched them…NEshek gives us 1 if not both of those wins…not to mention to good bats in the lineups could have made the difference in either as well
2 me that is 4 games right there…puts us in 2nd place and only .5 games back..
yes it is all hindsight… but that is why i am talking about that a few key additions can go along way in making up ground quickly
yes they are rentals…yes they displace a few guys for a month… but we have some excess in the farm…decent talent that might be able to give us what we need to win these close games…
We have problems, but i think we could fix the issues without giving up major farm talent…and if we can get these fixes why not?
We dont need to extend these guys, (though id consider Neshek)…and their costs cant be that high…i read the market for position players is really low…and the JD Martinez deal proved it… if that is the case…snag BRuce and Cozart…they are what this team needs…. maybe you pay a bit more for a rental in Neshek but you get what we need…
trying to get Donaldson or Stanton or Ozuna is a great idea…but that will cost a lot and probably be a hard deal to make…plus will probably cost more than we want anyways… I still want to do those deals by the way…
I am only arguing that looking at the division adn our recent play and the play of our direct rivals it would be foolhardy to NTO try to win this division…and if it only cost a few mid level prospects then why not…
if someone said before the season started…give me Mayers, Arty, Mercado, and Seferina maybe a yougn pitcher….and I will give you the Division title…i think most would happily do it…
will it cost them? would it cost more? but you still have to ask yourself the same question…and we arent even talking BAder’s and Sierras and Weavers and Flaherty’s here… and at this point, a few key acquisitions are what could really turn the tide….and if they didnt work out..would it really crush us going forward?
yes a rental is a rental….you are losing value in a lot of ways…but when we did that with Rasmus…we got a World Series…yes we lost lots of his value…and we brought in a bunch of veterans..but they were the RIGHT veterans we needed..
Cozart, Bruce, Neshek… for a decent price IMO gives us more victories on their own, but also saves us from losses…we are competitive in almost every game…a few key veterans are ll that might be needed to tip us into winning streaks instead of 1 for 3 series or 2 for 3 series…
making up 4.5 games with the team on the field right now is do-able with 2 months to go….add to us and it becomes almost a sure thing that we can get at least VERY close to making those games up
many of you have already given up on this team…did so from the first losing streak…but the team has played and ought to stay in it…i dont care if the rest of the division was good or bad…. the point is that we are in it right now…and adding to this team right now…could make for a shift in the dynamic of the division…yes the Bucs are playing better…yes the cubs gave up their last prospect for Quintana…bYES we may not be able to solve the next years problems or next 5 years problems with a trade right now…but we coudl get ourselves to the playoffs… and without mortgaging the future…
i am not advocating for this deal…i am only advocating that a deal like this isnt as far fetched as some might believe…and that it has worth, value and promise in it…
you dont have to think so,….i get that…
I just dont understand why so mnay of you want to just give up and nto even try to get to the playoffs this year when it is absolutely attainable…and again…nto at the expense of our top prospects or even best prospects… this type of deal is based off the low value of rental players in the categories we are looking at…
the argument that why should we even try because we woudlnt win in the playoffs anyways is just not good enough…as we saw KErshaw or any star can go down at any time…you can have the best record (like us) at the end of the season and not win it… of all fans the Cardinals fans shoudl know the promise of getting inot the playoffs and figuring it out from there…we have won because of it and we have lost in the face of others rising up….
giving up just because you dont like the team is just lazy…admonishing the idea of only selling and only buying Mike Trout or superstars is just lazy… giving up is lazy…it’s easy to give up when the solution is not simple…
we arent clearing house…Lynn maybe Oh…maybe a surprise player is possible but we arent ditching Carp for nothing or throwing away Grichuk or PIscotty or Wong just because they ruined your fantasy baseball leagues…
we can be opportunistic with who we trade away…but we COULD also be opportunistic with looking at the low cost for rentals and see that going for it might just be cheaper than anyone thinks…
i expect the flames…so continue onJuly 24, 2017 at 1:52 pm #28515
Our problem is that a whole lot of the players are simply having down years. Piscotty, Carpenter, Oh, Cecil, Grichuk, Diaz, Fowler, Rosenthal (ugh). It happens. Gyorko and Pham are about it offensively. DeJong has shown some signs but I don’t believe he is a true SS and he strikesout a lot. Hard telling what we have in him long term.
Hoping these players all bounce back next year. If so, that means our #1 glaring weakness in my mind is a big bat in the middle of the lineup. Most other teams have that, we don’t. That’s why I keep hoping that we deal for Stanton here at the deadline in the next week or in the off-season.
r/RatJuly 24, 2017 at 2:08 pm #28516
Carpenter would probably fetch one top 100 guy and maybe two lotto tickets. Would you trade Bader, Hicks and Plummer for Carpenter? If you would, that’s fine but that’s basically his value.
Personally, I’d rather have his bat in the lineup the next couple years and as insurance for Gyorko regressing or getting hurt. The only way I’m happy with a Carpenter trade is if we get a heist back or are going to acquire a legit star on the left side of the infield (Donaldson, Machado sure, Simmons would be bare minimum).July 24, 2017 at 2:56 pm #28519
This requires base superstars tp build around.
We dont have them. We have a hodgepodge roster.
Idealistically wanting to win at all costs in a down year is how a down year becomes a down decade.
Buying with this current roster is nothing but destructive on so many levels that it crosses the boundary from foolishness into stupidity.
And yes… That includes if the marlins were willing to GIVE us stanton — at least before we clear our roster a bit. If that happens in the wrong order a bunch of other players lose value instantly and you effectively overpay in both talent and money.
Clear the decks a bit and then we can buy.July 24, 2017 at 3:14 pm #28520
i have repeatedly said this has nothign to do with renting at all costs…it is only based out of the opportunity to take advantage of the low prices of renting right now in the areas we are looking for…
i have read multiple times that Cozart isnt drawing much interest….i read another item today saying BRuce isnt garnering much interest…all of which indicates low potential cost….
and in that case why not try to do it this year?
trading away some of the clutter in the system isnt goign to kill our farm…even if we lose a good talent for a guy like NEshek…btu lose very little for BRuce and Cozart why not?
Yes we are missing long term fixes…btu renting now with the low cost of these rentals isnt goign to hurt us in the long run at all…and it isnt going to turn a bad year into a bad decade
we need a big bat for the long term… I dont think Bruce is that answer nor Cozart.. .BUT Bruce coudl be had for the rest of the year for almost nothing it seems
we need a long term SS…and a good defensive one at that…and one that can hit well… Cozart probably isnt the long term answer to that either…bu t he is available now…and his cost isnt going to be crazy high
we need to replace Oh in the offseason and we needa closer…NEshek isnt that right now…nor is he a super long term answer…but he is available …and while he will probably cost more than he should…he has goodworth for a team in need of fixing it’s pen… especially to a team where the pen is costing us several games…and has lost us 20 games this year… even give us HALF of those back…and we are 5 games UP in the division…
a power lefty bat….a stellar defensive SS and high average hitter…and a setup/closer/stopper…all things we are missing…all things we need longer answers for… all things that are available…and all alre things that could get us to the playoffs…
Carp Pham Cozart Bruce Gyorko Fowler Yadi Wong/Dejong…. that’s pretty solid
and NO it isnt Stanton..or Donaldson…but it coudl be had for pennies on the dollar it seems
and let’s say we already had those ttwo…and adding them was cheap… then woudlnt our team make sense to ADD…even a rental like NEshek..even if he costs more than a rental should?
this division is giving us an opportunity to go for it short term without mortgaging the future AND still setting us up for the offseason to fix issues for the longer haul…
why not seize it?
Sure maybe you still trade Oh and Lynn …maybe even Grichuk too… but that doesnt necessarily kill our chances…Grichuk would be a bench bat with BRuce here…whatever we get back if we dealt him woudl make up for buying now…
losing Lynn would hurt…btu the return would hopefully be worth it…and Weaver/Lyons, Flaherty coudl figure it out for the rest of the season… PLUS in the playoffs you dont need 5 starters anyways…and his return still gives us value at replacing what we lost..
Oh is easily replaced by NEshek in this situation…even if his return is small it woudl still make up for anything we lost in “buying”
we are stockpiling good prospects…btu we have no room for more on the 40 man…and are going to lose good prospects if we dont add them…and i dont see how all the spots are going to work out….i’d rather trade some guys to clear 40 man spots or make new decisions easier…rather than lose them to rule 5 and get nothing.
NOTHING in what i said talks about throwing away our future to buy right now…maybe one good prospect for NEshek and a bunch of coin flips or farther down prospects or higher up AAAA pitchers with uncertain roles is what i am talking…
and again..this is based on the low returns for better players who have already been traded…July 24, 2017 at 3:19 pm #28521
i agree we are missing that big bat…but getting that player right now…just doesnt look feasible…Stanton is probably the big option and it sounds like they are moving anything until the offseason….which leaves pretty much DOnaldson as the only option…and while i like him for the rest of this season and next year…he still is only better bandaid and no long term fix….his price will be high in prospects…and while he’d bring something back after next year i doubt it makes up for what we’d give up
Trout isnt available…MAchado isnt available…no one…
so we go with what we have or we see if we can find a band aid for the year that doesnt cost us much…and we can attack the long range problems in the offseason….
investing TOO much in this season is probably a mistake…but not investing much…is well worth it with the central being there for the taking…and the only way to go after Donaldson now is probably to overpay…if this was 2 months ago…i wouldnt have minded…more than half a season PLUS 2018 AND his compensation pick…would have been worth it to me… but doing it with 2 months to go…i dont know how much id overpay if at all…
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