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Brian,
7 of the top 30 in the Padres #1 farm system came from the 2016 signing period where they went after 8 of the Top 40 international prospects and spent $60 million.
3 of the top 30 in the Cardinals middle-of-the-pack farm system came from the 2016 signing period where they went after two or three of the Top 40 international prospects and spent $16 million.
But if you believe in quantity over quality, then you are absolutely correct. Let’s just start four DSL teams.
Look at the difference in signings between the Padres and Cardinals
Which team looks like they are most trying to improve?
Well, putting Jose Martinez in right field isn’t that big of a dropoff after having Fowler there most of the year.
can someone post the link to the article or info that shows the Fowler is the first to leave and last to get to there for practice etc.?
What is the original source not necessarily WHO told whoever who reported it, but WHO reported it in the first place and where is that link?
Jager, we all had a discussion about this last year as soon as Ortiz reported it. Ortiz used to be Fowler’s biggest fan at the time of the signing, because he considered Fowler a “friend” from their times in Denver and Houston. He now openly calls for Fowler to be benched.
When teams are winning, teammates hardly ever bother to notice or even care if Dexter Fowler is usually the last guy in the clubhouse and one of the first to leave.
So, let’s not try to act like this is coming out of nowhere.
Let me explain it this way.
The Cardinals will be better off by:
1. Upgrading four positions defensively
2. Upgrading three positions offensivelyOffset by:
1. Downgrading one position defensively
2. Downgrading one position offensivelySo, here’s the basic math:
4>1 defensively
3>1 offensivelyBut hey, if you want to complain about the front office giving us a first baseman that can’t field, but then argue there is no better alternative to the first baseman that can’t field, then there is absolutely no reasoning with you.
How many errors has he caused to be attributed to other people?
How many calls should have been errors, but weren’t called errors because the play was close and he didn’t stretch for the ball or scoop it up?
But if you want to improve the offense, the answer is simple. Replace Fowler with O’Neill. Replace Pham with Bader. Replace Wong with a trade for Cabrera.
I just upgraded two positions offensively and defensively. One position offensively.
Moving Carpenter to 1B and Gyorko to 3B upgrades two other positions defensively.
Matt Adams was hitting .275/.351/.575/.926 with 13 home runs before hitting the DL last week.
We traded him for a Single A player, and he could actually play defense.
While 1B isn’t the most challenging position defensively, we have seen too many times where we give away outs at 1B because JMart is beyond terrible.
An error costs a team an average of 0.7 runs. Think about it.
If you could fill out the lineup cards, what would you change?
I would never let JMart be anything other than a pinch hitter. The only exception would be in a situation like last year, where we had one outfielder injured and then another got injured in the game, and it was either Gyorko or Greg Garcia had to go in the outfield. I would have had JMart finish the game.
I, like many readers here, believe that for the Cardinals to get back to the postseason, we need players that can contribute both offensively and defensively, not just one or the other. Thus, the Cardinals need to begin purging one-way players this offseason.
Two weeks ago, I previewed where the Cardinals can trade Jose Martinez, and it seems that the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are the most likely options in the offseason, with the Houston Astros the most likely to trade for him at the trade deadline.
Forsch asked for a similar analysis of Koten Wong’s likely trade destinations. So, here it goes:
Arizona Diamondbacks – Arizona has Ketel Marte currently manning second base. Marte just signed a 5 year deal with Arizona this past offseason, and is scheduled to make $2.4 million to Wong’s $6.5 million next year. While Ketel Marte is even lighter hitting than Kolten Wong, he has a 5.1 UZR/150 in 562 innings to Kolten Wong’s 4.5 in 3291 innings. Nope.
Atlanta Braves – they have Ozzie Albies, one of the best young prospects in the game. Nope.
Baltimore Orioles – During his time in the majors, Jonathan Schoop has a negative UZR/150 at second base and a lower OBP than Kolten Wong. He does, however, hit home runs, allowing him to accumulate 7.1 WAR during his five years in the league compared to Kolten Wong’s 8.1. Schoop is currently making $8.5 million this year, however he is in the third year of arbitration, and thus can be released without consequence during the offseason. A trade of Wong to Baltimore can improve their defense and save them several million dollars, so it at least appears possible.
Boston Red Sox – the Red Sox are a legitimate World Series contender. They currently have Eduardo Nunez as their 2B. He owns a -8.3 UZR/150 since 2013, though his career .724 OPS is better than Wong’s .694. Nunez is only making $4 million this year, with a $2 million buyout, but he has a player option for 2019. The Red Sox are a possible trade partner if Nunez opts out.
Chicago Cubs – Nope.
Chicago White Sox – Yoan Moncada – one of the best prospects in the game and core to their rebuild. Nope.
Cincinnati Reds – They have Scooter Gennett, who has a career 9.0 WAR to Wong’s 8.1. Because they are in the same division, I don’t see a trade for Wong likely unless they trade Gennett to a contender at the trade deadline.
Cleveland Indians – Jason Kipnis is a league average defensive 2nd baseman who, for his career, has a .752 OPS compared to Wong’s .694. Kipnis is scheduled to make $14.5 million next year, so I don’t see a trade happening.
Colorado Rockies – DJ LeMahieu has a 3.1 UZR/150 since 2013, compared to Wong’s 5.1. But LeMahieu has accumulated 9.6 WAR compared to Wong’s 8.1 over that same time period, thanks to his bat. LeMahieu is making $8.5 million this year, and is a free agent at the end of the year. They have Garrett Hampson in AAA, and Brendan Rogers in AA, so might let LeMahieu walk and replace him with youngsters.
Detroit Tigers – they have Dixon Machado. Lighter hitting and only a slightly better than average defensive 2B, Wong would be a clear upgrade for the Tigers, however he will be making $6 million more than Machado next year.
Houston Astros – Jose Altuve. Nope.
Kansas City Royals – Whit Merrifield. Since entering the league in 2016, he has posted a UZR/150 of 2.0 and accumulated 6.2 WAR to Wong’s 5.7 UZR/150 and 4.1 WAR. Merrifield is still under team control, so it seems logical that the Royals would stay with Merrifield.
Los Angeles Angels – Ian Kinsler is 37 and making $11 million this year. He is a free agent at the end of the year. His offense has declined this year, but his .660 OPS is still better than Wong’s .613. While Wong is having a breakout year defensively, Kinsler’s career numbers are better than Wong’s, and even this year, at age 37, he is putting up solid defensive stats. The Angels would be a trade candidate IF Kinsler retires or signs with another team.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Max Muncy is having a breakout season for the Dodgers, filling in at 2B & 3B. Chase Utley needs to retire. Logan Forsythe is having a miserable season at the plate. It’s possible the Dodgers could acquire Wong for depth, though my guess is they won’t like Wong’s me-first attitude.
Miami Marlins – Over Wong’s five seasons in the big leagues, Castro & Wong have accumulated the same 8.1 WAR. They just do it in totally opposite ways. Wong with his glove, Castro with his bat. The Marlins are looking to save money, however, and Wong’s $6.5 million contract next year has to look better than Castro’s $11 million. Perhaps the Cardinals can trade Wong for Castro + a prospect in a change of scenery deal?
Milwaukee Brewers – Jonathan Villar – has a slightly better career OPS, but Wong is much better defensively. Wong also makes more money, and this would be an intra-division trade. Keston Hiura, who was drafted in 2017, is already in AA. Nope.
Minnesota Twins – Brian Dozier is making $9 million this year, is struggling to a .689 OPS and is a free agent at the end of the year. The Twins do, however, have Nick Gordon waiting in the wings at AAA, and have Jorge Polanco on the big league team. They will probably go in-house for Dozier’s replacement.
New York Mets – Asdrubal Cabrera – another offensive first second 2B, he is also a free agent at the end of the year. Mets are lacking in-house options, so they could be a fit depending how free agency shakes out.
New York Yankees – Gleyber Torres. Nope.
Oakland A’s – Jed Lowrie is currently their 2B, and has accumulated the second-most WAR in MLB at the position this year. While he is a free agent at the end of the year, they also have Franklin Barreto on the roster, who represents a low-cost option.
Philadelphia Phillies – They have Cesar Hernandez under two more years of arbitration with Scott Kingery waiting in the wings. Nope.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The team has two options on Josh Harrison following this year. They also have two 2B/SS prospects sitting in AAA. I would have to think they would be unwilling to trade with the Cardinals, unwilling to take on Wong’s salary, and more inclined to fill from within.
San Diego Padres – They have Luis Urias in AAA. Nope.
San Francisco Giants – They have Joe Panik, who has accumulated 9.4 WAR since 2013, during which time Kolten Wong has accumulated 8.1. Panik is under arbitration for two more seasons, and is earning $3.4 million this year. I don’t see it.
Seattle Mariners – Robinson Cano and his $24 million salary are locked up through 2023 – unless he fails another drug test. They also have Dee Gordon.
Tampa Bay Rays – when you combine the past two years (you are supposed to average three years, but Robertson has only been playing two), both Joey Wendle and David Robertson have a higher UZR/150 than Kolten Wong. Both are making the league minimum. They also have Nick Solak and Brandon Lowe in the minors. Nope.
Texas Rangers – Rougned Odor is a negative defender and the last two years has struggled with the bat. He is, however, signed through 2022, and his contract would be hard to unload. Don’t see it.
Toronto Blue Jays – assuming Vlad Jr, takes the reigns of 3B next year, Yangveris Solarte would slide over to 2B. Wong would be an upgrade over Solarte and Devon Travis defensively, but the Blue Jays will probably stay with their current options.
Washington Nationals – Daniel Murphy is a free agent, William Difo is not really better than Greg Garcia, so yes, the National represent a possibility.
The Detroit Tigers, like with JMart, seem to be the strongest fit. One can make an argument for the Nationals and both Los Angeles teams, depending if their current 2B’s retire or go elsewhere. Miami could be a trade partner in a scenario where the Cardinals acquire a prospect to help Miami save some money. The Mets are also possibilities depending on whether they trade Cabrera and how the free agent market shakes out. Baltimore could be a possibility if they were to simply let Schoop go and save a few million dollars. Boston is a possibility if Nunez opts out, or they just want to improve defensively.
The Red Sox and the Dodgers could best cover Wong’s offensive shortcomings. An infield of Wong, Simmons and Cozart could also be fun to watch in LA, though the Angels jettisoned Danny Valencia last year because he couldn’t hit.
In terms of how the Cardinals could improve, it would appear to be to sign Jed Lowrie or DJ LaMahieu in the offseason, trade for one of Tampa’s 2B prospects, or take a chance and promote Schrock (and his roughly .700 OPS) from AAA.
Let’s break this down:
1. Who fills out the lineup card?
2. As for Wong, I totally agree. I thought they should have moved on from him two years ago…If for no other reason than his me-first attitude.
3. Mo didn’t “give” Matheny an injured SS. That happened. It’s part of the game. It happens to every team
4. Again, who fills out the lineup and puts Carpenter at 3rd to make room for the worst fielder many of us have ever seen?
5. If you believe defensive metrics like UZR/150, Ozuna is ranked 6th out of 15 qualified left fielders this year. Of course, Schwarber is second…
6. They’ve known about Pham’s eye condition for years. Evidently, Mozeliak was out-voted in terms of keeping or getting rid of Pham. This sounds like a DeWitt decision.
7. Probably the biggest blunder of the Mozeliak era…one that is any other business would probably get the decision-maker fired. A $50 million overpay? Sheesh…but at least he has been riding the bench more frequently the past few weeks…which gets back to the person filling out the lineup card…Early in Matheny’s tenure, Mozeliak would trade away any pieces Matheny misused or did not use at all. I think right now, there are just too many pieces that have to be traded away, in combination with the front office having grown scared of making trades…
Man, does the Cardinals’ front office really look at FP and errors still? Is there any value there?
Yes, there is absolutely value there, because as unsophisticated as they are, they tell us what our eyes tell us and what common sense tells us – this is a bad defensive team.
I say this because the Cardinals, as a team, rank 11th in all of baseball in DRS and 16th in UZR/150. Last year we were 5th in DRS and 10th in UZR/150.
I assume you’ve taken at least a 300 level statistics course in your life. Now, how big is the error term for DRS and UZR? How much multicollinearity is there in each of those measurements? Can you definitively say a team that ranks 10th is better than a team ranked 15th? Why can the two measures produce vastly different rankings?
This isn’t and hasn’t been a bad defensive team.
So, you ignore JMart at 1B, Carp at 3B and Fowler in RF? How about Ozuna in LF? Munoz at SS?
Defensive statistics still have a lot of improvement to go before they can be taken as the gospel.
Statcast data will be helpful in refining the models, but that only became publicly available last year. Even so, I would rather look at the individual components of the metrics than some combined number with an error term of some unknown size, but which is widely acknowledged to be quite big.
Let’s face it, Jose Martinez has no business playing in the field. He needs to be traded to an AL team where he can be a DH. So, let’s look at the American League teams to which JMart can be traded this offseason:
Baltimore Orioles – Mark Trumbo is scheduled to make $11 million next year. He’s battled injuries this year, and only has a .320 OBP. Given his contract, this is unlikely to happen.
Boston Red Sox – They have JD Martinez. No chance of this trade happening.
Chicago White Sox – Matt Davidson – .339 OBP & .805 OPS. Pre-Arb. They probably stick with him.
Cleveland Indians – Edwin Encarcion is set to make $20 million next year. He only has a .306 OBP and .773 OPS. This probably makes more sense as a trade deadline deal, as their window is rapidly closing.
Detroit Tigers – Victor Martinez – age 39, free agent at end of year. He has a .298 OBP and .635 OPS. Tigers would save about $17.5 million AND improve their roster, and they were really just trying to cut payroll, not tank. This seems like one of the favorites to trade for JMart.
Houston Astros – Evan Gattis is on a one year deal. He only has a .305 OBP but a .793 OPS. I would guess they stick with him. Though if the Yankees are able to trade for pitching, Houston might be inclined to upgrade their DH for the playoffs.
Kansas City Royals – If it weren’t for the fact that they traded him to the Cardinals for cash, they’d be much more likely to consider trading for him to be their DH. They gambled on a low cost Lucas Duda for $3.5 million, and he’s been injured half the year (like normal for him). Can Dayton Moore admit a mistake (unlike the Cardinals front office)?
Los Angeles Angels – They have Albert Pujols. And Shohei Ohtani. No chance, unless they think JMart’s bat can be enough of an upgrade over Pujols to get them in the post season.
Minnesota Twins – They are on the hook for $8 million next year for Logan Morrison’s .294 OBP and .643 OPS. They are on the fence about buying or selling at the deadline. If the Cardinals were actually sellers at the deadline and the Twins buyers, this would make sense, but I don’t see either of those two things happening right now, much less both. During the offseason, Minnesota is more likely to hope for a rebound.
New York Yankees – They have Stanton, Judge and Gary Sanchez. Nope.
Oakland A’s – They have Khris Davis for one more year of arbitration. And while they could save about $10 million by releasing Davis and using JMart, I don’t see this happening.
Seattle Mariners – Nelson Cruz is 37 and a free agent at the end of this year. While he is currently outperforming JMart, if the Mariners want to save some $$$ to address other needs, a trade for JMart might make sense.
Tampa Bay Rays – They have CJ Cron for two more arbitration seasons, however they are always looking for ways to reduce payroll. The only way I see this trade happening is if the Cardinals take back more salary, but the Rays don’t seem to have any high salary players that would interest the Cardinals.
Texas Rangers – The Rangers have Shin Soo Choo scheduled to make $21 million each of the next two years. Don’t see it happening.
Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays have Kendrys Morales scheduled to make $12 million next year, but he only has a .308 OBP and .713 OPS. In a division with the Yankees and Red Sox, you have to take whatever upgrades you can get. But unless they can somehow trade Morales’ contract, I don’t see them trading for JMart.So, teams who seem to be the best trade partners for JMart this coming offseason:
– Detroit Tigers
– Houston Astros
– Kansas City Royals
– Seattle MarinersHouston, of course, doesn’t really need a DH, as they can probably make better use of their roster space by having Yulieski Gurriel and their outfielders rotate through the DH position.
And KC is unlikely to trade for him due to optics.
Well, yes, ideally you are composed of players that are above average both offensively and defensively.
But we have Carpenter, who is below average defensively anywhere besides first base, and his production doesn’t really merit being a first baseman.
We have JMart, who is atrocious defensively.
We have Wong, who is offensively challenged and has only had one really good year at the plate.
We have Dexter Fowler, who falls into the atrocious defense category. And seems to bring a lot of other baggage.
Really, what needs to happen is JMart needs to be traded to a team than needs a DH (Toronto, Texas, etc), Wong needs to be traded anywhere but here, Fowler needs to be benched until he decides he wants to EARN his paycheck (because he has no trade value), and Carpenter needs to play 1B until his contract expires (because his trade value is only marginally above Fowler’s).
Make those trades, bring up O’Neil and Schrock, and play it out.
In the offseason, they are going to have to have a reckoning with Fowler.
The last two seasons, there has been discontent in the locker room, despite Matheny being praised for his leadership abilities.
If you’ve watched the Cardinals play this year, it looks like there is more of the same. We won’t actually know about it until it blows up or it is leaked to the press, but it sure appears that this is a team that is just people showing up rather than people playing together and trying to win.
Two offseasons ago, the Cardinals said they were going to prioritize defense. This year, they are clearly prioritizing offense. You can’t send mix signals. Choose a path and go with it. That’s what leadership is about.
If you’ve read Michael Porter’s “Competitive Strategy,” you know the worst thing you can do is be stuck in the middle. That is exactly where this team is right now. Stuck in the middle between choosing offense or defense. You can’t say you care about defense and keep running Carpenter out at 3rd, JMart at first and Fowler in right.
So, either go with the best bats or the best defenders, but don’t try to mix and match.
And I mean, if Fowler really told him it wasn’t in his contract, it’s up to Matheny to make an example of Fowler. I wouldn’t let him off the bench the rest of the year.
I believe Mo has said that Matheny makes the lineups. So, if he and Fowler are having all these issues, why has he started in 51 games?
What do you do when a player who is underperforming refuses to take extra batting practice?
You let him ride pine and only appear as a pinch hitter
What do you do when a player swings for the fences when told to just make contact?
You let him ride pine and only appear as a pinch hitter
What to you do when a highly paid player just loafs after the ball?
You let him ride pine and only appear as a pinch hitter
What do you do when a highly paid player loafs down the 1st base line?
You immediately bench him to set an example
What do you do when you ask a player to do a little extra and he says it’s not in his contract?
You let him ride pine and not even appear as a pinch hitter even if only relief pitchers are left on the bench.
