Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Sorry yes I had the correct labeling in my head but didn’t post them with the correct label.
I think it is easier for bat control guys to develop power than high strikeout guys to learn plate discipline.
It isn’t like Gurevitch has bad plate discipline. His K% isn’t ideal but his chase rates are about league average. Kyle has stated in the podcasts that he sees signs in Gurevitch is improving and adjusting to pro ball and he expects his K rate to drop as he adjusts more.
Datallo at least has good EVs showing he does have power so I have more hope for him than most bat control guys as does have untapped game power. As far as what is working, what Gurevitch and Dattalo are both working at least for minor league stats. Gurevitch is hitting almost .300 so I’m unsure how stats wise he wouldn’t be a success so far. But realistically the surface level stats don’t matter as much. I want to see them making strides in development, but at the end of the day as well it doesn’t matter what stats they put up in A ball but what progress they have developmentally.
One must ask ‘concerning’ as compared to what, or who?
Other MLB pitchers taking the mound regularly this year. Pitchers with good stuff do exist and pitch regularly in MLB rotations just not the Cardinals so maybe that is your disconnect with stuff based pitchers.
McGreevy’s ERA is fine right now, but he has good batted ball luck and he has allowed some really hard contact. Based off his batted ball data, his expected ERA is 5.68. That doesn’t account for the Cardinals defense, which despite some beliefs, is really good and ranks as 6th in MLB by OAA. His ERA will run a good amount lower with that defense, but maintaining 2-3 full runs better than his expected over a season in unheard of in baseball history. His FIP is 4.42 so still a run worse than his ERA.
Again I see him more of a 3.75ish ERA based off what I have watched of him, but there is luck in baseball and McGreevy has been the beneficiary quite often. But his luck will not always be so good and he will regress to more of the expected ERA for him.
I did really enjoy the discussion this week going so in depth on the draft and the guest appearance of Kareem.
I’m curious on people’s thoughts of Tyler Spangler. I think he will be at the combine so we can finally see him soon. He looked like a hit / power guy who can play the left side of the infield last year. The problem has just been hin being out all year injured and a strong commitment to Stanford. Maybe in an ideal world they can underslot a college bat at 13 and then give a large overslot to Spangler in the comp selection.
Just a minor technical note, but audio wise Brian you are a good amount quieter than Kyle and Kareem. Kareem’s volume is quite high but maybe that is since I had the volume high on my drive to hear Brian.
I definitely am not in on Helfrick. His contact data is very concerning and I don’t think he is going at all. His college power numbers look fine on paper but I just don’t think he is going to have enough hit to reach any real power. You also have to look at how juiced college bats are at the moment so I don’t know how real his power numbers have been.
I really feel like there is a drop off in talent after the first 6 or 7 picks. I really don’t know what I would do at this point but I do know some players like Helfrick I am fully out on.
A is Dattalo and B is Gurevitch. Both have impressive stat lines but also it is a small sample and both have very high BABIPs although especially Datallo.
But prospect rankings are much more than just a 125 PA sample of stats. Datallo has impressed and his underlying data shows 70 grade plate discipline and 60 grade bat control with 45 raw power. Gurevitch is much more power focused with 70 raw power but less hit with 40 grade bat control and 45 grade swing decisions.
If you want more contact, Dattalo is your guy. But in terms of pure upside Gurevitch has a chance to be an impact bat which he does need to play what will likely be 1B. Dattalo is a corner infield only guy and his path to the majors in my opinion is much less likely if he can’t tap into more game power.
I hope McGreevy isn’t this years Liberatore. What I mean by that is starting the year off really strong and faltering mid year. McGreevy does have very concerning batted ball metrics that say he should regress significantly ERA wise. I didn’t think he was a true sub 3 ERA guy but I do think he is better at some small aspects of the game and will settle as a #3 type with a 3.75 ERA.
Even if they lock up young players as well which I want them to do, their salary obligations won’t be that high the next couple of years. They typically start off smaller and build up so May being on the books for 4 years doesn’t prevent them from signing JJ, Herrera, etc to a long term deal as their salaries would start getting a good amount higher ($20+ mill) 4 or so years down the road.
I don’t think the Cardinals will spend any more than they have to until they are more competitive.
Given the overwhelming success of JJ and emergence of Walker, I think the team should likely be targeting 2027 as the start of their real contention window. Those two have helped jump them up timewise. I would hope ownership isn’t painting on 2027 and wanting even further out. Sure sell this year what you can, but try to build a rotation for next year that can support the burgeoning offense that is already very young and controlled outside of Noot for at least 2 more years.
When do you expect their real contention window to begin? Maybe I am overly optimistic but the offense has shown signs that I think it is earlier than the FO expected as this past off-season.
MLB’s statements were they didn’t plan on cutting the 120 full time minor league affiliates which is reassuring. But from the rest of those proposals I think their plan is clear. Outsource development of 18-20 year old domestic players to colleges and cut the complex leagues. Then the DSL is will hold slightly more developed players for a year or 2 until they are ready for A ball.
They probably go for something like 120-130 total domestic players in an org so a cut of 1/5th to 1/4th total players each org has to pay. The other takeaway is they seem to want less risk and don’t like spending so much on both really young international and domestic players and want a few more years of development to weed out some players.
The international change I am on board with. The players shouldn’t be getting signed or at least verbal agreements so young. I don’t like the domestic changes and particularly the hard slots. Players already aren’t in a free labor market as they can’t sign where they want (drafted instead) and then taking away financial negotiation makes it completely team controlled and players should be able to negotiate their financial details. It isnt very American to not have any negotiating power over your salary.
I do understand from the owners the desire to cut the risk out of high schoolers but I also think it probably isn’t a fully shared sentiment among all owners. Some teams like the Dodgers are probably more than happy taking risks as the payoffs are higher.
On this front, I think what ends up negotiated in labor deals is players accept the international draft, domestic draft age requirement, but reject the hard slots and such a large draft pool decrease. The players likely lose here overall but I think they concede some ground here as their bargaining chip to avoid a hard salary cap.
You have to consider the new CBA as well. Both owners and players want more local tv contract sharing and owners want 100% sharing. There is also a good chance that teams are required to spend a certain amount and that amount would be higher than the current teams payroll and much higher than what they have in obligations for next year.
Signing someone like May is exactly what the team should do with that money they will need to spend. He is young and they need pitchers and even with most top prospects on the org being pitchers, they aren’t going to have a full rotation any time soon. May offers upside and with his age has less risk of falling off a cliff performance wise than most older FA SP.
Obviously it takes two to tango, but if May seems interested in staying in STL I would maybe offer something like 4 years $80 million right now. I expect if he keeps pitching like he has, he will be looking at maybe a shot at $100 million though.
If he isn’t interested, you explore trading him but the QO is easy to make if it still exists going forward
27 Mitchell walks because he doesn’t swing the bat and A pitchers have bad control. He has really dropped in my eye as like Chase Davis he is too passive to be valuable and won’t swing to actually do damage at times.
Baez has easy 70 grade game power. But I do want them to keep him in AAA longer to work on his plate discipline and contact. He has a swinging strike rate of 17.3% and his zone contact % is 78.2%. With his power, he can run worse numbers for those but I want to see him swing less out of the zone and when he swings make more contact. The BB% dropping shows he has changed his approach from last year and he doesn’t have to have an elite walk rate, but he needs to up it some.
Yesterday or the day before I noted Carrior hadn’t appeared in a game and at least yesterday he played DH for his first pro experience. Still likely on the mend of something if he missed 10 games and is DHing 1st game back
What a start by Dustin May. He was in control thr whole time attacking hitters. He was mostly fastball heavy with some really good sweepers thrown in as well
Whatever producer decided to put that Perfect Game bid up the whole PA should have a stern talking to