Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Crooks started off horribly, but he has been playing better in July and slowing bringing his stat lines up. They still don’t look good but that is from how and he started.
In July he is hitting .240 with a .345 OBP and .520 SLG which is good for a 149 wRC+.
He is still striking out way too much, but he is making contact at an acceptable rate in in zone pitches but needs to improve his selection. When he does hit the ball, he is hitting it really hard at least.
Quinn has absolutely turned it around. Fingers crossed something happens at the deadline to free up a rotation spot for him.
A+ and higher all had good pitching performances. Here is interesting that he throws no hit outings fairly frequently, but so short. Hopefully they actually let him pitch deeper as the baby him approach 2 years ago didn’t work.
HR totals are up in all the AA and below levels according to BA research from a late May and the suspected reason is an unintentional change to the ball resulting in a different drag coefficient
I mentioned the Mariners would likely trade one of their SP in another thread. I didn’t think Hancock would be the one they are looking at though. Maybe the Cards can send them another guy to get Hancock as he will have 4 years of control left
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/07/mariners-reportedly-willing-to-trade-emerson-hancock.html
Good question Brian. I just read their summary data and they listed in average the Cardinals as the shortest. Maybe it isn’t as much this year they targeted undersized pitchers, but instead they didn’t target large pitchers. Either way, their pitcher drafted height was the shortest, but height at least isn’t a good indicator of potential either.
BA looked at the draft and noticed the Cardinals drafted the shortest average pitchers. I noticed it last year and others did too looking at the player heights, but I had not noticed it this year.
Bling, I’m curious what Rainiel has done to disappoint then. He is only 1 year older than Condon, but already is performing quite well at AA. He had to adjust at first which is expected for a 19 year old in AA and still with that initial struggle is hitting 16% better than league average.
He has performed well, but also scounts love his swing mechanics and his tools. He has a simple, short lever swing that he he is able to generate very loud contact and actually do damage with it since it isn’t only ground balls. He has the best combo of hit and power by far in the system.
If you want a reason to be scared about Baez, look at his performance difference between fastballs and off speed pitches. I still have him high, but there are major question marks I have about him and fear his hitting profile may be like Gorman 2.0
A comparison of @stlcard25’s and my list
I had them higher
– Brandon Clarke: +18
– Yairo Padilla: +18
– Emmanuel Luna: +17
– Jacob Odle: +14
– Tekoah Roby: +10stlcard25 had them higher
– Brycen Mautz: +12
– Jesus Baez: +12
– Chen-Wei Lin: +9
– Ryan Mitchell: +8
– Won-Bin Cho: +6Players stlCard25 ranked but I didn’t (* means I have them graduated / graduating soon)
– *Jimmy Crooks (#6)
– *Blaze Jordan (#20)
– Ty Van Dyke (#34)
– Tink Hence (#35)
– Pete Hansen (#36)
– Payton Graham (#44)Players I ranked stlCard25 didn’t
– Blake Aita (#36)
– Jack Martinez (#37)
– Jalin Flores (#40)
– Sebastian Rojas (#41)
– Ian Petrutz (#43)
– Andrew Dutkanych (#45)
– Max Rajcic (#49)
– Austin Love (#51)Since June 1st, Quinn has a 1.79 ERA with a great 29.5 K%, workable 9.6 BB%, and a 0.77 WHIP (mostly from .151 BABIP).
I was really excited to see Padilla returned to action today and had a grand slam. I’m honestly surprised more people aren’t on the Padilla train with. He has hit, hit, hit since being a professional and is very athletic with a frame suggesting he will get much stronger to add power. He already has good raw power for a guy his age.
Here is my updated list. I feel good not great about it. I started by just putting players into groups and then trying to arrange within those group. Position players for each tier get the advantage in my book due to more realistic odds of them reaching their upside. The individual number isn’t as important as the tier and within a tier the guys could be shifted around.
+------+------------------------+----------+------+ | Rank | Player | Position | Tier | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 1 | Rainiel Rodriguez | C | 1 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 2 | Liam Doyle | LH SP | 2 | | 3 | Quinn Mathews | LH SP | 2 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 4 | Joshua Baez | COF | 3 | | 5 | Yhoiker Fajardo | RH SP | 3 | | 6 | Mason Molina | LH SP | 3 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 7 | Leonardo Bernal | C | 4 | | 8 | Yairo Padilla | SS | 4 | | 9 | Trevor Condon | CF | 4 | | 10 | Jurrangelo Cjintje | RH SP | 4 | | 11 | Tegan Kuhns | RH SP | 4 | | 12 | Tanner Franklin | RH SP | 4 | | 13 | Brandon Clarke | LH SP | 4 | | 14 | Tekoah Roby | RH SP | 4 | | 15 | Cooper Hjerpe | LH SP | 4 | | 16 | Jacob Odle | RH SP | 4 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 17 | Won-Bin Cho | COF | 5 | | 18 | Sebastian Dos Santos | SS | 5 | | 19 | Rocco Maniscalco | SS | 5 | | 20 | Tai Peete | CF | 5 | | 21 | Emmanuel Luna | CF | 5 | | 22 | Jack Gurevitch | 1B | 5 | | 23 | Deniel Ortiz | 3B | 5 | | 24 | Jesus Baez | SS | 5 | | 25 | Braden Davis | LH SP | 5 | | 26 | Chen-Wei Lin | RH SP | 5 | | 27 | Cade Crossland | LH SP | 5 | | 28 | Brycen Mautz | LH SP | 5 | | 29 | Ixan Henderson | LH SP | 5 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 30 | Andrew Williamson | CF | 6 | | 31 | Dee Kennedy | SS | 6 | | 32 | Miguel Hernandez | SS | 6 | | 33 | Ryan Mitchell | CF | 6 | | 34 | Luis Gastelum | RH RP | 6 | | 35 | Xavier Cruz | RH SP | 6 | | 36 | Blake Aita | RH SP | 6 | | 37 | Jack Martinez | RH SP | 6 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 38 | Caden Ferraro | 1B | 7 | | 39 | Travis Honeyman | COF | 7 | | 40 | Jalin Flores | SS | 7 | | 41 | Sebastian Rojas | C | 7 | | 42 | Chase Davis | CF | 7 | | 43 | Ian Petrutz | COF | 7 | | 44 | Dawson Montesa | RH SP | 7 | | 45 | Andrew Dutkanych | RH SP | 7 | | 46 | Cade Winquest | RH RP | 7 | | 47 | Cal Randall | RH RP | 7 | | 48 | Hancel Rincon | RH RP | 7 | | 49 | Max Rajcic | RH RP | 7 | | 50 | Mason Burns | RH RP | 7 | | 51 | Austin Love | RH RP | 7 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+Rainiel is a tier above every one else for me. The combo of great power and a good hit tool with a chance to stick at C makes him a likely above average regular down the line.
Tier 2 I see Doyle and Mathews as being big league SP most likely and 3-4 types as a likely outcome but odds of being better than that.
Tier 3 is where I likely vary. Baez the more I dig in, the more concerned I get as he struggles much more against breaking and offspeed pitches and I fear MLB pitchers will exploit him and he needs to address it otherwise he may be Gorman 2.0. Fajardo and Molina are missing bats at a very high rate and both (particulary Fajardo) have good command.
Tier 4 on the hitting side has two guys with great bat control that can play up the middle positions in Padilla and Condon. If Padilla were in this draft, based off his hitting tool, athleticism, and projectable frame would be a top 10ish pick. I think people who like a good hitting tool will really grow to like Padilla and Condon. For pitchers, it is a grab bag of guys with the change to be impact SP, but each with some high risk whether staying healthy or developing more consistent offspeed pitches.
Tier 5 for hitters are guys with every day starter upside, but each player has a pretty major flaw at the moment that needs to be improve. Most of them it is hit tool as they all in this group have good power upside. The pitchers I have Mautz and Henderson much lower than other people, but the data just shows they don’t miss bats that much and I think both can contribute at the MLB level, but more as #4/#5 type upside with likely pen futures.
Tier 6 I have some of the college draftees as I just don’t know as much and would rank them simlarly to Hernandez (has good upside) and Mitchell as all these guys seem to need to prove themselves going forard. The pitchers are some guys I like some of the traits they have and could see them being back end bullpen types.
Tier 7 are hitters with more chance of being role players rather than being MLB starters. The pitchers are in 2 sub groups with Montesa and Dutkanych having SP upside, but with what I would label extreme risk. The remaining guys are all RP who many of these will likely get a chance to pitch in a big league pen and provide some middle relief value. I actually went to 51 as Love is the bottom of that tier for me, but he does have some stuff to work with to pitch in the bigs as a middle relief guy.
I’m unsure why they are having Walker DH instead of Velazquez. That would be a big improvement just swapping them with Noot in LF instead
Oil writing in the worst OF arrangement he could have. If they are going to play Fermin and Velazquez in the OF, make sure it isn’t the same game.
Mathews has a good night again. Throwing plenty of strikes and good results to go with it. Am I the only one who thinks he is ready?
It looks like they are committing to Mautz in the pen with the other promotions to Memphis taking the rotation spots
Exit velocities are the same. For the 8-10% increase in distance, the comparison point was a ball hit with the same angle and exit velocity. But HR totals are up. Linking to BA as they did the research earlier this year.
The guy looking at them close that I am really moving up and higher than anyone else I have seen is Mason Molina. Last year I think I got overly excited about guys like Mautz and Henderson since they had sparking ERAs, but in hindsight the underlying data wasn’t as exciting.
Molina looks a lot more likely to me to be able to make that transition to the bigs. He is consistently putting up swinging strike rates of over 15% in his seasons so far which is 2-3% higher than Henderson or Mautz every did at their best of any level. He has improved his first strike % a good amount this year and his walk rate has been an acceptable amount. A pitchers first strike % is a very strong indicator of their future BB%.
Honeyman I think will land 40ish for me and maybe a little above it, but not much. The ceiling is lower if he can’t play CF as his bat doesn’t have a lot of power in it to play RF.
By the way, JJ Copper at BA said speaking with front office execs, the AA and lower ball had an “unintentional” change where a ball hit the exact same as last year would travel 8-10% further. For guys like Honeyman, that makes me question even his modest 8 HR total more.
Gassy is now positioned to earn himself his first ML “W”.
He did end up getting it. Wins are a funny stat aren’t they? Congratulations, you blew the lead, you deserve the win not the guy who pitched an excellent game before you blew it.
Reading back 1TD, I know the play you are referring to. That was a heck of a play by Winn earlier to even get to the ball let alone make the throw over
Ha yeah you could. For sure after the top 10 rounds it is mostly minors depth with a random guy developing well every now and again
I didn’t see any mention of it or a roster matrix move, but I did notice Joseph King must have started a rehab assignment in the FCL yesterday. It seems like the last 2 weeks so many of these pitchers out so far all of the year have started a rehab assignment.
Martin was an 18th round pick. The odds were very long and realistically guys at that point are minor league depth
Thank you! It may be a few days. I only got the top 6 guys in maybe 30 minutes of looking into them. I do try to dig up a good amount of info. After the top 6 there seems to be a fairly big drop off.