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I’ll have to respectfully disagree about Crooks and Bernal. I think Crooks will be a .260 hitter with swing and misses. His defense is not as good as Bernal’s, and is 3 years older.
Hi stlcard25 – I appreciate the analysis. However, there are some nuances to be factored in the analysis. First, I have only ever looked at Memphis hitters joining the Cardinals roster, and haven’t looked at other teams. I would not include Contreras and Arenado in this analysis at all. Similarly, Walker and Scott made the MLB roster without having played at AAA. I would also exclude them from the analysis.
I indicated that I looked for a .150 OPS drop when Memphis hitters make the jump to the major leagues. Thus, I am basing it on AAA experience to their first full year in MLB. The analysis you have seems to include their AAA averages and MLB averages, which is different than what I use my back-of-the-envelop rule for. I use it merely to see if a hitter is ready, not to see if they will ever progress in MLB.
So, let’s look at some examples.
Ivan Herrera:
In 2022, he saw his first real action at Memphis (278 PA) and got a cup of coffee at STL (22) PA. He had a .770 OPS at Memphis and a .302 OPS at St. Louis. Based on my “rule”, I would not have called him up, because I would not expect him to hit.
So, let’s look at 2023. In 2023, he had 375 PAs at Memphis and 44 at STL. He posted a .951 OPS at Memphis and a .760 at STL.
In 2024, Herrera was on the opening day roster as catcher. So, the analysis stops. Herrera did spend time in AAA in 2024, but that was on rehab assignment. The rehab time skews the AAA averages.
Pedro Pages:
Pages is an anomaly. He had 170 PAs at Memphis in 2022, and had a .635 OPS. He then spent all of 2023 in Springfield. In 2024, he only spent 7 games at Memphis (with a .917 OPS), before spending the rest of the season at STL (with a .657 OPS).
He doesn’t fit the model of player development.
Brendan Donovan:
In 2022, he posted an .885 OPS in Memphis (131 PA).
In 2023, he was on the Cardinals opening day roster, and he posted a .773 OPS. He did spend time in Memphis in 2023, but that appears to be a rehab assignment.
Masyn Winn:
In 2023, he had 498 PAs at Memphis, and posted an .834 OPS. He then had 137 PAs with the Cardinals and posted a .467 OPS.
In 2024, he was on the opening day roster and posted a .730 OPS.
Lars Nootbaar:
In 2021, Lars Nootbaar posted a .900 OPS in 136 PA’s in Memphis. He then posted a .739 OPS in 124 PA’s in STL.
In 2022, he made the Cardinals opening day roster and posted a .788 OPS.
Alec Burleson:
In 2022, he posted a .905 OPS in 470 PAs at Memphis. He then posted a .535 OPS at STL.
He then made the opening day roster in 2023, and posted a .691 OPS.
Nolan Gorman:
In 2022, he posted a .915 OPS at Memphis in 188 PAs. He then posted a .721 OPS with the Cardinals in 313 PA’s.
In 2023, he made the opening day roster, and posted an .805 OPS.
Thomas Saggese:
In 2024, he had 528 PAs at Memphis and a .752 OPS. He also had 52 PAs with the Cardinals and posted a .556 OPS. I would not have promoted him, because I would not expect him to hit.
In 2025, he had 189 PAs at Memphis, with an .847 OPS. He also had 295 PAs at St. Louis, with a .641 OPS.
Nathan Church:
In 2025, he had 242 PAs at Memphis with a ..921 OPS. He also had 65 PAs in STL with a .504 OPS.
Jimmy Crooks:
In 2025, he had a .778 OPS in Memphis across 430 PAs. He then posted a .397 OPS in 46 PAs with the Cardinals.
Jose Fermin:
In 2023, he posted an .841 OPS in Memphis across 81 PAs. He then posted a .594 with the Cardinals across 61 PAs.
In 2024, he posted a .924 OPS in Memphis across 240 PAs. He then posted a .438 OPS with the Cardinals in 79 PAs.
In 2025, he posted a .913 OPS in Memphis in 293 PAs. He then posted a .793 OPS with the Cardinals in 70 PAs.
So, what are the takeaways?
– Yes, I still believe in a 150 OPS drop, it doesn’t happen every time, but it does happen most of the time
– I would be very reluctant to promote any hitter who doesn’t OPS at least .900 at Memphis
– The Cardinals keep lowering their standards as to who gets promoted, and it shows on the field#7. Jimmy Crooks
Crooks has a really good glove and I see him being a good glove catcher that has some doubles power upside. I think Crooks will be much better with the glove than Pages who is only slightly above average and Crooks has better potential with the bat although I would expect him at best to be league average with the bat and expect 90-100 wRC+ from him in his career as upside.
I didn’t realize BA had Jesus Baez ranked at #92 going into this year…. One of the better prospects that i assume most of us dont know a lot about. I’m guessing he falls around 10-12 for this group since he’s not as well known to us Cardinals faithful.
I indicated that I looked for a .150 OPS drop when Memphis hitters make the jump to the major leagues. Thus, I am basing it on AAA experience to their first full year in MLB. The analysis you have seems to include their AAA averages and MLB averages, which is different than what I use my back-of-the-envelop rule for. I use it merely to see if a hitter is ready, not to see if they will ever progress in MLB.
Thanks for sharing your thought process. That’s a fair assumption in general, with the caveat that age progression does matter. A 21 year old putting up an average line at AAA could well be ready to make the leap more than a 24 year old will ever be.
I do think that Bloom will be slower moving with our prospects in general. That was the consensus about his time in Boston. We will see if it pays off here. We desperately need 6 or 7 of these top 10 to become MLB regulars, and a couple of them to be All Star types.
BTW, a little less than 3 hours to go before we close the voting for #7. It’s a bit of a runaway, but every vote matters! We finish up at noon CT/1 PM ET.
Voting is now closed. Your #7 prospect in the 2026 TCN Community Top 50 Prospect voting is…Jimmy Crooks, C.
1. JJ Wetherholt, IF
2. Liam Doyle, LHP
3. Quinn Mathews, LHP
4. Rainiel Rodriguez, C
5. Joshua Baez, OF
6. Leonardo Bernal, C
7. Jimmy Crooks, CVoting is now open for the #8 prospect. Voting will close at Noon CT/1 PM ET on Sunday, October 26th.
8. Ixan Henderson
I liked this guy when he was drafted. Plus, I’ve enjoyed watching him due mostly to his great results. High strikeouts and low ERA. He’s been successful at every level thus far. I originally thought he would never make it as a starter. I’m beginning to doubt my assessment.
He’s also 6 months younger than Mautz, has always been consistently good, and has been better than Mautz at every level.
I feel like this is the point where it gets interesting. The first 7 were clearly best to me because they all have a great shot of being at least a MLB regular or they are Rodriguez who is super exciting early on.
Now it gets into the projection range where we’re guessing where a guy ends up. For instance, 8 of my next 15 or so all could be in the Cardinals bullpen by end of next season. But will some of them establish themselves as a starter? That’s the question. The next 22 names on my list are all a bit closely rated. I’m looking forward to this section of our rankings.
#8 Ixan Henderson
What JNevel said. Plus a few fine splits in AA this year.
The southpaw allowed lefties to hit just .199 and slug .292, but more importantly permitted righties just .216 and .296. Balanced splits means starter, not reliever. When the splits are nice and low like this, that is.
Home, tremendous .553 OPS allowed; on the road still excellent at .617.
Finally, OPS with bases empty .630. But men on base, just .518 across 217 plate appearances.
Ix has been generally healthy for four straight years, and built up his innings at a manageable pace: 80, 90, 105, 130. No pitcher is a great bet to be durable, but he’s a better bet than many, if not most.
Ixan Henderson is my #8 as well. I really like the way he competes, and he seems to be more than the crafty lefty type in the rotation. He’s done nothing but pitch well at every level. I think he has a good shot to stick in the rotation as soon as later in the season next year, or if not, in 2027.
Congrats to Jimmy Lee Crooks for getting the votes to secure Top Prospect #7.
Hate being a copycat, but I had “Hendo” at #8 when I finished my Top 50 the day after the regular season concluded. And nothing has changed my mind since.
I vote Philip “Ixan” Henderson as our 8th most valuable prospect por favor. As a quick aside, I also placed Baez at #16…….and again, nothing has changed my mind as to my placement of his top prospect status. Gracias.
#8 Ixan Henderson
I have had him number 8 on my list for awhile now and I concur with everything that has been said. While Bloom will probably not rush prospects it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Henderson makes it to STL before the end of 2026. In the meantime here is to a great start in Memphis.
This is a huge toss up between Henderson, Mautz, Hence, Hjerpe and Roby for me. Because of the injuries it comes down to Mautz and Henderson for me and based on a few clips I just watched:
#8 Henderson
Do we really think Roby will improve after suffering significant shoulder injuries two years in a row. He is great to dream on, but I doubt he shines next year.
Henderson has exceeded expectations each year and remained healthy and built innings.
Jesus Baez could explode at Springfield next year, but knuckleheads often get traded and usually knuckleheads be knuckleheads.I base this only on subtleties on the milb play by play and unfounded hearsay.
If I were going to gamble, I would bet on Hherpe out of the pen for the streach run next season.
For me Hjerpe is better than Henderson. Ixan always exceeds expectations.
Henderson at 8.I had Mautz one spot ahead of Henderson on my original list but several of you who follow the prospects closer than me have convinced me to switch them.
8 – Henderson
So far I the player I have voted for has been the TCN choice for the first 7 votes, but I knew the streak would end here as TCN favors results and proximity to the majors over the risk of younger players.
#8. Yairo Padilla
The farm has a clear top 7 players to me with a mix of players that have average starter upside while lower risk or others like Rainiel, Mathews, Doyle with All Star upside but more risk.
While I have Rainiel and Padilla both at a 60 for their 80th percentile outcome, Rainiel has a higher volatility while Padilla has extreme. Padilla’s range of outcomes are from a guy who flames out in AA to a top 5 SS in baseball. Padilla has a really great baseball body that projects to add more strength as he ages and he is very athletic. If Padilla can put it together and gain strength, hit the ball in the air more consistently, and stay athletic enough to play SS in the bigs, he has a chance to be one of the top 5 SS in baseball. That upside part though is what has me excited and willing to write him in as my 8th best prospect over other guys I do like like Ixan Henderson.
I am unsure why Roby keeps getting mentioned and Hence hasn’t been yet. Both have good stuff and both have pitched well at points, but Hence has the advantage we can possibly see him pitch for the big league team even in 2026 (I have classified him and Roby as RP at this point) while Roby won’t pitch a professional inning until 2027.
I think Roby has the best stuff in the cards minors other than Doyle and Mathews I also really like Henderson. Henderson can be a 2 or a 3. Robys health doesn’t affect my ratings. It’s frustrating that the Cards don’t give more info on health. Rincon, Hjerpe, and Hence are not given injury updates. I think Roby might be back for the AFL next year. This day and age, most pitchers come back as strong or stronger than before an injury.Hence is my next pick after/if Roby gets picked. I think Roby and Hence should have been picked by now, but I always value pitching over hitters.
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