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I’m becoming a big fan of his because he seems to have a nice combination of power and speed. JR seems to think his ceiling could be higher than A.Garcia, Arozarena, and Williams. Does anyone know what turned his power switch on this year? Thanks very much.
The ability to stay healthy enough to play a full season certainly helped.I think the potential has always been there but he couldn`t stay on the field .
Bw, that’s probably why we got Thomas for “considerations” from TOR. He’ll probably be penciled in for Memphis in ’19. AGarcia seems to be ahead of him right now because Garcia is in St Louis. Arozarena is having trouble with his AAA hitting, and Williams had a so-so season. One of those three will make the big team in ’19 if the Cards figure out how to unload Fowler.
Thomas showed off his power in the AAA final by belting a monster shot.
Memphis OF next season could look like the 2018 version.Arozarena,lane Thomas,Adolis Garcia and Justin Williams.
The “considerations” was international cap money the Cardinals could not use, anyway.
At the start of August, right after Thomas joined Memphis, I asked him the same question point blank about the reason for his emergence. He was very straightforward and clear. He attributes it to exactly what Bw52 said – health.
Stubby had seen him with the Jays and was really pleased the Cards got him. Johnny Rodriguez just loves the guy. The AFL presents a great opportunity for him.
For more background, Derek Shore wrote a very good and in-depth article about Thomas earlier this season, including views from scouts and some of his former Jays coaches.
Springfield’s Lane Thomas Makes Big Impression in Short Period
Lane Thomas looks like he might be the real deal. All the hoohaw about Cuban outfielder signings, and he may be better than both. I want to see another big year, and I think he should move way up in the rankings. 2 things in the way, 1) what the cards decide to do with FOwler and his contract, and how O’Neill plays. I see a big improvement in O’Neill next year. Tyler has improved in small increments this year.
“…international cap money the Cardinals could not use, anyway.”
Could you clarify this statement, Brian? Because I know what Derrick Goold means when he says it, and his assertion is I believe provably inaccurate.
I have debated DG during his chats, and he has made quite clear that his underlying premise when he says the Cards “cannot possibly spend” their 2018 international budget, is that there aren’t any unsigned 16-18 year-old kids out there who could be good enough to justify making room for them on the 2 Cardinal DSL rosters.
For me there are three enormous flaws with Goold’s argument.
1) As well as the two Redbird DSL teams played this year, I can guarantee you they were not overpopulated with future major leaguers. In other words there is always and forever room available for a good prospect — and especially so when the parent organization has doubled up on teams in a given league.
2) The international teen amateur market isn’t just the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, but also includes other significant baseball nations like Panama, Nicaragua, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, and at least one or two others that don’t pop to mind right now. Goold’s claim whether he makes it explicit or not is that there isn’t a single significant young hitter or pitcher worth signing right now in any of those aforementioned seven baseball hotbeds. I very seriously doubt that this is the case; but even if it were true, there is still the oft-neglected fact number 3.
3) This year’s signing period doesn’t end in the fall, or the winter, or even the spring. In fact it doesn’t end until next June 15 unless I’m mistaken. So by saying that the Cards “can’t spend” their international bonus money, Goold is by extension also claiming that there will not be — at any point between now and next June 15 — any young pitcher or position player emerging in any of the above countries. That is nearly a statistical impossibility.
Put numbers 1, 2, and 3 together, and Goold’s case is baseless. In my opinion.
I don’t think they are going to go out and sign 50 some-odd players for $100k each though. It’s probably tough to find more than 20-30 players that are good enough for a contract.
Aren’t most of these players rather well-known before then too? You had mentioned in another thread that Malcolm Nunez, for instance, had been in talks with the Cards since he was 14.
Bob, it is a case of math. With over $5 million to spend and a cap of $300,000 per player, the Cardinals could sign as many as 16 international free agents at the $300K maximum and still have money left over.
While bonuses are not all reported, the Cards did not sign anywhere near 16 at that price, however. In fact, I know of only one $300K player this year, Nunez. Last year, they signed five for the max, as best as I can tell.
How many $300K-valued free agents are available and could the Cards sign more than their “fair share” of one of every 30 of them? (Of course, they are competing with the other 29 organizations for players.)
If the Cards’ average signing bonus is $50K per player, for example, they would have enough money to sign over 100 international free agents! Hence, they traded away some of the excess cap space they likely could not use.
It would not be smart business to overspend just for the sake of overspending, as that would artificially inflate the market.
With the two years of the $300K cap gone starting July 2nd, 2019, the Cardinals can then again try to compete to get the top international free agents, potentially shifting back from a quantity to a quality-based approach.
In that vein, it will be interesting to see how long they keep the second DSL team. I could see two or three years max as they sort through the bubble of penalty years signings. As a side point, as good as the DSL Blue and Red hitters were this season, the pitching was far below average.
Robert Reed
Put numbers 1, 2, and 3 together, and Goold’s case is baseless. In my opinion.
Unless you like puns and anecdotes most of Goold’s writing is useless in my opinion.
Thank you for responding, Brian.
As far as smart business is concerned…let’s say the Birds were to sign, over the upcoming winter, a relatively obscure 16-year-old Nicaraguan middle infield talent for $300K even though the kid was generally valued by the industry as a ~$150K talent. If that player goes on to be a Greg Garcia style bench contributor, according to Fangraphs that’s more than $20,000,000 of surplus value. That’s what I call very smart business for the Cardinals, relative initial “overspend” or not. And maybe I’m naïve, but as for your concerns about inflation, I can’t see a purchase or two or three of that magnitude having much inflationary impact on the int’l market in general.
And I suppose that when it comes to the concept of overspending, there’s a broader point that I should have emphasized earlier. As a general rule, I would argue that (individual cases notwithstanding of course) on the whole it is nearly impossible to overpay in the domestic draft/international amateur markets, just as conversely it is nearly impossible to get a bargain when buying the top shelf free agents at the MLB level. As a rule, amateur players, whether domestic or international, are invariably the best investment a team can make.
Again, just one decent MLB bench player generates as much surplus value at the MLB level as the cost of four entire years of international signing classes, and that’s assuming a club uses their whole $5M budget — which in my opinion they always should. But you probably already guessed that.
No one knows better than a Cardinal fan that pittances sometimes turn into princes. See Albert Pujols, Matt Carpenter, et. al.. Therefore any dough left un-invested is an opportunity missed, in my book. Now, I’ll grant that the calendar certainly does make a difference. If this were next May, and the Birds had a bunch of money they hadn’t spent yet, that would be different, maybe there really wouldn’t be anyone of substance worth buying before the June 15 deadline. But young talented players will emerge between now and June. It’s almost axiomatic, given their youthfulness.
Anyway I’ve spoken my disgruntled mind on the subject. My powers of persuasion were pretty weak tea, I guess. Thanks again for responding at any rate.
Oh, and I like Lane Thomas. Lane Thomas thread. I like him. If most of the 2018 power sticks, he can start at CF for awhile for someone. BPro loves his glove, has him worth +5 runs per 150 games as a pro, as a centerfielder, over a sample of 400+ games. And one more thing. People ooohed and aaahed over his big blast of a homer in the Triple-A title game v. Durham. But I liked the triple more. He was fooled a little, out in front and reaching for it, but kept his base, kept the weight distributed well, didn’t truly lunge except for his hands, and hit it off the LF wall on one hop.
Bob, it is a case of math. With over $5 million to spend and a cap of $300,000 per player, the Cardinals could sign as many as 16 international free agents at the $300K maximum and still have money left over.
Which is exactly what the Padres did.
I think the draft spending caps have helped the Cardinals. I felt that they went cheap too much before the caps but since have spent as much as they can. I also want them to do that internationally. To put the kind of teams we put on the field in 18 in the DSL with the $300,000 cap speaks highly of our Latin organization. With the full budget available we should really shine.
I like Lane Thomas a lot as well. I believe that is why they felt they could trade away Machado. And if Torres turns out like some feel he will it will be a big plus deal for the Cardinals.
While the DSL teams had a fine year in 2018, it was heavily, heavily imbalanced in favor of offense. The Cards need to find some elite international pitching.
Memphis’ pitching was outstanding, but Springfield pitching was bad. Palm Beach and Peoria’s pitching were middle of the pack. State College pitching was rough, JC’s was terrible and GCL was buoyed by college pitchers who were placed below their age-appropriate level.
#stlcards prospects Tyler O'Neill and Lane Thomas appear on the Triple-A fly ball distance chart, with the latter receiving special mention. The two are TCN's 2018 Players of the Year at Memphis and Springfield (shared), respectively. Thomas is now playing in the Arizona Fall Lg. https://t.co/8NqoIrJqST
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) October 11, 2018
I saw that in the article, Kiley mentions that Lane “only” had a 110 wRC+ at the AAA level. Perhaps he (and other Cards prospects) are punished for playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the PCL? I believe that Fangraphs only adjusts for the league in their stats, not park…which obviously skews toward guys who play in places like Albuquerque, Colorado Springs and Fresno, which are fantastic hitters parks, and away from places like Memphis and New Orleans. Perhaps that 110 would be in the 120s if you adjusted for park as well.
Anyway, just a thought. I like Lane. I think he could be a better version of Grichuk, which might not make him a starter in St Louis’ crowded OF, but could make him a very valuable 4th guy or allow one of the top guys to move in a trade (like we saw with Mercado).
It will be interesting to see how Thomas does in 2019. MLB.com gave him no love on their top 30 prospects. OH well, he can just fly under the radar.
If he hit LH he might be able to make the opening day roster but RH hitting OF’s are a dime a dozen in our system.
Thomas had a better 2018 than any other RHH OF in the system not named Tyler O’Neill. Now he is on the 40-man so it should be an interesting battle at least between he and Adolis as to who is the next OF in line.
My point being is that if he hit LH he would definitely be ahead of Garcia right now and maybe O’Neill as well. Our team and system is crying out for LH bats since Gorman is still a few years away.
I get the “need more LHH mantra”, but the guys who are here are what they are.
To that end, Thomas did most of his damage at Springfield this season. In 100 games, here are his splits:
vs. LHP: .256/.320/.478/.798
vs. RHP: .262/.342/.490/.832In my assessment, he stands above the “dime a dozen” label. Maybe not a future star, but a pretty good player by all indications.
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