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Brian Walton
Here is the trajectory they are on.
NL playoff odds: https://t.co/HfEHeDgBXj
100% Dodgers
98% Nationals
93% Diamondbacks
76% Rockies
55% Brewers
40% Cubs
20% Cardinals— Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro
Also per fangraphs: The projections give the Cards a 21.8% chance to win the division and a 10.4% chance of winning a Wild Card. Those along with their projected chances in a potential Wild Card game combine to give the Cards a 27.1% of getting to the NLDS.
My vote for replacing Weaver is Mark Montgomery.
2016 – Memphis – 45 1/3 IP, 30 H, 9 BB, 53 K, 0.86 WHIP, 2.18 ERA
This would let Duke get a few more AAA innings and Siegrist get his velocity back.
Montgomery was once heralded as the next David Robertson when he was in the Yankees organization. He always had control issues there, but seems to have gotten a better grasp on it this year in Memphis. He’s a big slider guy with a 91-92 MPH fastball. His lingering shoulder injuries should give us pause though to ever counting on him long-term (much like Siegrist)
Interestingly, we only picked him up out of necessity when Rosenthal went down at the beginning of the year and Tuivailala got called up. At that time, we needed someone to fill his bullpen spot in AAA.
bccran
He’s given up 66 hits in 84 innings and struck out 79. WHIP of 1.10.
That doesn’t seem very egregious to me.
With Weaver getting sent back to AAA, who do the Cardinals promote after the All Star break? Siegrist doesn’t seem ok with Derek’s report of decreased velocity.
If Molina ends up falling off a cliff, it sure is nice that we have the top catching prospect in the entire minor leagues ready to fill in for him.
NJ315
and what different breed would that be? Impervious to human tiredness? That is the most ridiculous thing ever heard “a different breed”. He is human like his teammates and they all get rest. He is a catcher and almost 35. Nobody wants Carson up just a backup that Matheny will play.
In the same vein of players like Cal Ripken and Michael Jordan.
Julio Franco and Bartolo Colon played for a long time and Molina’s own brother Jose carried on for a long time as well.
I’m 34 and run marathons at speeds faster than I did ten years ago. Maybe I will “fall off a cliff”, but most of my friends can’t do anything anymore, which isn’t the case for me.
I think it would be different if he was constantly getting pulling for minor injuries like Fowler or putting up poor production, but he isn’t doing either of those. Plus these ten days in a row are right before he gets a 5-day break.
Ratsbuddy
A couple of years ago I would have thought you were crazy if you had said that. Now I totally agree. I just don’t see what good he is doing. Poor defense, low average, that doesn’t cut it. But then again, everybody has a bad year so maybe he can right the ship either in the 2nd half or 2018.
Carpenter’s defense at 1B is not poor:
Back in May: 1B – Matt Carpenter: 2 DRS and -2.8 UZR/150.
Now: 1B – Matt Carpenter: 626 Innings, 4 DRS, 1.8 UZR/150
That’s above-average.
He also has a 119 wRC+ and a 118 OPS+. That’s above-average too. Look at more than batting average.
Cardinals2016
Great breakdown, but I think you greatly underestimate the Dodgers and Rangers. The Dodgers and Angels are his hometown teams so he may only waive the no-trade clause for them. Both the Dodgers and Rangers have prospects and aren’t afraid of the luxury tax ramifications. Also, Stanton only makes $14.5M this year and $25M next year. Plenty of time for teams to get under the cap when his pay gets exorbitant, especially at just $5-6M extra this year.
mudville
To me, he looks like he doesn’t have his head in the game most of the time.
Are you referring to Carpenter? I don’t see that at all with him.
14NyquisT
What a lousy move the Fowler signing has become. Putting an OF together for the future is greatly effected by having him around and paying him so much. There’s a lot of chatter about acquiring an OF with power to fill the middle of the order. We may need to trade off Piscotty instead. That Fowler money would come in handy in getting us a power bat instead of us doing the usual and winding up with Bourjos. Mozeliak will still be feeling the embarrassment as Fowler’s presence continues to disrupt this team going forward and his skills continue to evaporate.Fowler very recently was having an offensive season very close to, if not, his career best. In what world does that make his signing lousy? It’s still just $16.5M a year. This group think that he is struggling and his signing will hamstring us reminds me of all the folks bickering about Mike Leake last year. Cost-controlled production certainty is a very valuable attribute.
bccran
1.) The Fowler trade was to lock in a lead off batter so Carp could hit third and swing with power. That failure has really upset the applecart.
My quess is that they will try to see what they can get with a Wong/Lynn/Oh package.I still don’t understand what is so wrong with having the two of them hit 1 and 2 or 2 and 1. What difference does it make….really?
I feel like Molina is just a different breed at this point. He’s breaking a lot of barriers and assumptions.
I still think a little context is needed here. UZR is still rating all four of our main outfielders (Grichuk, Pham, Fowler, and Piscotty) as having below-average arms, Fowler and Piscotty getting hit the hardest. I just find that hard to believe. They all seem like very competent throwers with good arm strength. Grichuk and Pham would grade out as above-average without the “arm” component dragging them down. Fowler would still be below-average, but much closer to average.
UZR has Wong with a very below-average error rating. He has always had issues there, even though his range has been elite or close to it.
With DeJong looking pretty legit as a SS option with the bat, perhaps this limited data is accurate regarding his defense being above-average. That helps. Moving Fowler to LF and having Pham (or Sierra) in CF will help too. (Grichuk as the 4th OF)
For reference, Delvin Perez was on the Baseball America list in the offseason just six months ago at #86
He was #79 on the BP list and #91 on the MLB list.
Now it seems like they are punishing him for not playing until short-season ball. That’s standard for a typical HS draft pick.
I think they are definitely missing the boat on Sierra and Bader. They are top 100 guys.
I think Dakota Hudson should be #56b right there with Flaherty. Those two are the future.
Just about every day there is some intriguing pitchers going. Today its Gallen, Alcantara, and Oviedo.
I’m intrigued to see how Delvin Perez finishes the year. He was #79 in the BP offseason top 100. He hasn’t played at all at the time of this report so he should be finishing up in the 50s by seasons’ end.
He hasn’t hit much in JC this year in limited PT, but he also has zero errors after nearly 90 innings, which I think is incredible after putting up 17 in 300+ innings last year in the GCL.
Fowler should waive his no-trade clause because he can see the writing on the wall. His defense is not good enough to play CF in St. Louis, he is going to lose the CF job no later than next year, and he is likely going to be 4th OF in 2-3 years. He has no such issues in Miami. Also, he can save a few hundred thousand dollars per year in state and city income taxes.
This is a ridiculous paragraph. Fowler is having his best offensive season ever this year or at least was very close to it.
