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  • in reply to: Free agent Steven Matz #177690
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    A lot of these guys that are getting high-dollar 1 and 2 yr deals like Syndergaard (’16: 155 ERA+), Paxton (’17: 140 ERA+), Duffy (’14: 156 ERA+), Kluber (’17: 202 ERA+) ~ all had at least one high-end career year that teams are hoping to re-capture.

    Matz’s best year was a 118 ERA+. MLBTR has it broken down best:

    TOR guys: Scherzer, Stroman, Gausman, Ray, Rodon ~ First 4 all got $100M+

    Former TOR guys: Greinke, Verlander, Kershaw, Syndergaard

    Mid-rotation arms: Desclafani, Gray, Matz, Rodriguez, Wood, Cobb

    Old vets: Anderson, Lester, Happ, Kim, Wacha

    Rebound hopefuls: Duffy, Bundy, Davies, Foltynewicz, Paxton, Kluber, Martinez, Archer

    Matz compares well with his group of 6, albeit with the worst career ERA+:

    Rodriguez, 29 (110 career ERA+) 5yr/$77M
    Gray, 30 (107 career ERA+) 4yr/$56M
    Matz, 31 (96 career ERA+) 4yr/$44M
    Wood, 31 (112 career ERA+) unsigned
    Desclafani, 32 (104 career ERA+) 3yr/$36M
    Cobb, 34 (105 career ERA+) 2yr/$20M

    in reply to: Jose Rondon Non-Tendered #177683
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    He is kind of pointless if you have Edman, Sosa, and DeJong all healthy.

    I think this means they just like Anderson Tejeda better really. With the potential DH coming, you should only have one MI bench guy.

    in reply to: So what are we going to do? #177681
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    I thought Boyd had the Flexor tendon issue?

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177646
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    My five for #21-25

    #21 – Austin Love, RHP
    #22 – Gordon Graceffo, RHP
    #23 – Dionys Rodriguez, RHP
    #24 – Jack Ralston, RHP
    #25 – Tre Fletcher, OF

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177644
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    What am I missing with Jake Walsh? It seems he barely pitched in 2021 (22 innings is low even for a reliever) and is already 26 years old.

    in reply to: 2021-22 MLB Offseason Activity #177641
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    stlcard25

    Daniel Hudson headed to the Dodgers, it looks like.

    I would have really like Hudson and the guy the Rays got in Brooks Raley. Maybe they will get Collin McHugh (1.55 ERA, 247 ERA+), Andrew Chafin (1.83 ERA, 230 ERA+), or Corey Knebel (2.45 ERA, 169 ERA+) still.

    in reply to: 2021-22 MLB Offseason Activity #177630
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    I actually like the idea of a shortened time to do FA deals in the winter. It completely hurts agents like Boras that like to slow play the market.

    It feels very much like the NBA FA season, which is a ton of fun to follow.

    in reply to: 2021-22 MLB Offseason Activity #177566
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    Right now, they have a $267M payroll and will probably still get a DH or push Escobar into that role (by signing a Baez or something)

    in reply to: 2021-22 MLB Offseason Activity #177565
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    I was saying early on that Scherzer would like likely get a 3yr/$90M deal (pre-Dodgers maybe $75M), but man, $130M is crazy.

    On paper, the Mets should be really good, even if old. Taijuan Walker is a solid starter and Tylor Megill is good. Then, you don’t know what you may get from Carrasco.

    Lineup-wise, they’ll get Cano back at 2B and Nimmo and Canha are really good OBP guys as is Marte so if Lindor can get back to go with Alonso and Escobar….man. That’s a tough lineup.

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177555
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    Bob Reed

    Much like Josh Baez and his .158 batting average, or Tre Fletcher and his 40% strikeout rate, I don’t think it’s possible to find an MLB player, past or present, with a minor league season as bad as those guys in his past.

    Baez only had 95 PAs. He did have a strong BB-rate of 14.7% and a projected SB total of 30+ for a full season. I didn’t have him in my top ten, but I had him in the mid-teens. I think that’s fair.

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177554
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    #16 – Delvin Perez, SS
    #17 – Alec Wills, RHP
    #18 – Tink Hence, RHP
    #19 – Austin Love, RHP
    #20 – Gordon Graceffo, RHP

    Surprised that no one has mentioned Dionys Rodriguez yet. Jack Ralston (6’6) also is an intriguing arm even if he is older.

    in reply to: Free agent Steven Matz #177368
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    Mrperkins

    The contract is too long if you expect regression or injury. I don’t. I think he will be a bargain. I would even go so far as to say I prefer 4/44 to 3/33 as I think his success here would have commanded more than 11mil after year 3. I guess time will tell.

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    I’d bet Matz is more likely to be out of the league by year 4. My guess is that this deal is similar to the Peralta deal where we get all the value in year one and two.

    in reply to: Free agent Steven Matz #177367
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    Did you all see where Sherman said the Mets were willing to go to the same 4yr/$44M deal? I suppose it’s nice that the Cardinals didn’t have to pony up an addition year over the competition for once, like they did with Fowler and Leake.

    in reply to: Free agent Steven Matz #177358
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    stlcard25
    I wish we hadn’t seemingly burned the bridge with KK (although I couldn’t blame him for wanting to return home either) because Kim would actually be the perfect candidate.

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    I think he was mad he wasn’t starting when he was pitching poorly. I don’t fault the Cardinals.

    in reply to: So what are we going to do? #177357
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    LACardFan


    @kscardfan
    – Bader’s career WAR is 10.6. He has 1451 plate appearances. If you normalize those plate appearances using 600 plate appearances = a full season you get that Bader produces 4.38 WAR per 600. This includes his 2019.

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    With Bader, you can’t project a full season for him. It hasn’t happened, plus I don’t like how much WAR values OF defense. We went through the same thing with Heyward. I like Bader and I am wouldn’t change our OF at all, but he’s just above-average for me.

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177347
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    My picks:

    #11 – Joshua Baez, OF
    #12 – Brandon Donovan, IF
    #13 – Andre Pallante, RHP
    #14 – Delvin Perez, SS
    #15 – Malcom Nunez, 3B

    Perez here worries me since the Cardinals didn’t even protect him, but it’s more of a faith-driven choice. Baker is coming up and he’s in the same boat.

    I moved Pallante up after his excellent stint in the AFL. I had him below Hence and Rondon. I liked Rondon when he was a 21 yr old at AA in 2019, but the lost 2020 derailed his prospect status a lot. Hopefully he gets back on track in Memphis’ dynamic rotation next year ~ Pallante, Rondon, Woodford, Oviedo, Thompson, and Liberatore. We haven’t had an experienced, prospect-heavy AAA rotation like that since 2017 (Weaver, Mayers, Flaherty, Gonzales, Gant).

    Nunez was still young for the league in A+ ball and had a 120 wRC+. We’d be looking at him different if he stayed there and continued to hit ~ .804 OPS.

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177340
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    That’s the same top 10 I have just in a different order! I have Herrera at 3 and McGreevy at 6 on mine.

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177339
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    Plummer was but he’s a free agent now

    in reply to: Free agent Steven Matz #177337
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    I’m not a fan of the terms, but Matz looked like their guy from the moment he wasn’t offered a QO.

    I hope this means they go after another higher risk option as well though that could move to the bullpen, like Kim.

    Nick Martinez seems like the guy but I really like Michael Lorenzen or Daniel Duffy too.

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177293
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    Good call.

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177288
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    #10 McGreevy – 1st Round Pick, 6’4 College arm.

    This is the Cardinals getting back to what they draft best – college pitchers – starting in 2005 with just 1st rounders, you go:

    05 – Perez
    06 – Ottavino
    07 – Mortensen
    08 – Lynn
    09 – Miller
    10 – Blair
    12 – Wacha
    13 – Gonzales
    14 – Weaver
    15 – Woodford
    16 – Hudson
    18 – Roberts
    19 – Thompson
    21 – McGreevy

    Didn’t pick one in 11 (Wong), 17 (scandal), 20 (Walker)

    Didn’t work out with Mortensen (part of Holliday trade though), Blair, and very likely Roberts, but everyone else on the list made the majors with success or still can (Woodford and Thompson)

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177221
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    I like Michael McGreevy here at #9. He’s at #6 on my personal list.

    in reply to: So what are we going to do? #177057
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    blingboy

    I think Mo has previously said he doesn’t like signing a closer to a big multi year deal. Don’t remember when or where or the context.

    Neither Melancon or Knebel are designated closers. Melancon probably would only get a 1 year deal as well, although I assumed the worst-case contract.

    We have a *closer* technically too in Gallegos.

    Mozeliak has spent big money ($5-14M AAV) on FA RP (Cecil, Miller, Gregerson, Holland, Broxton) and moved expensive-ish pitchers into the bullpen like Martinez and Kim.

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177056
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    cardsfan64

    Didn’t think he would be eligible. Will have to consider him as well!

    Yeah, I mean Nootbaar has already proven himself in the MLB and he outhit Yepez in the AFL.

    in reply to: Community 2022 Top Prospect Voting #177033
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    I really feel like our top 4-5 guys all should be top 100 MLB guys.

    Liberatore and Gorman will be for sure, but Walker and Herrera, to me, look like the top 100 players too.

    Herrera looks like he should slot in behind Rutschman and Bart, above Wells of the NYY, who’s still in A+, and Francisco Alvarez of the NYM.

Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 1,539 total)