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51. Rancel Rincon
52. Osvaldo Tovalin
53. Nelfy Ynfante
54. Samil de la Rosa
55. Chris Rotondo10 Honorable Mentions in no particular order: Scott Hurst, LJ Jones, Nick Trogic-Iverson, Andrew Marrero, Wilfredo Pereira, Anyelo Encarnacion, Yordelin Peña, Alfredo Ruiz, Logan Sawyer, and Zuniga
Brian,
Since we’re on this line of thought, I’m really curious where Rancel Rincon ranks on the list. He’s definitely my favorite prospect that didn’t make the top 50 (safe to assume he’s not in the top 8 yet to be revealed!). He’s the one guy who didn’t make the list that I’m the most confident about making it in the future.
Thanks for any input you might be willing to share!
LJ Jones is very limited defensively so he has to hit well to be a valuable prospect and thus far he has been a good hitter, but not really a “very good” hitter. He is not young as he’s going into his age 24 season and hadn’t made AA yet. For perspective, he’s 6 months younger than Carlson who now has 2+ years of mlb service. He does have some serious power potential, but it’s pretty raw right now. He tends to strike out a lot. And, to my eye, he tends to be very streaky. So for me, he’s somewhere in the mid 50’s to maybe even low 60’s on the list. We’d all love for that entire 2020 draft class to be amazing (it still is either way) which I think artificially drives up LJ in our thoughts. Maybe he does make it as a 1b/DH some day. But if he does, I’m betting it won’t be with St Louis as there is just so much talent in front of him. He will be rule 5 eligible at the end of this season so we will know then what the Cardinals think of him long term.
I totally get the huge risk factor for Bernal and Mejia. Mejia is basically in the extreme risk category. But unless your team desperately needs a left-handed bullpen arm now, I’m thinking any team would still rather have Bernal or Mejia in a deal over Thompson. Wouldn’t you?There’s certainly some risk that Thompson isn’t very good either. But his floor is low leverage middle relief and I get that is still something vs a floor of nothing for Mejia and Bernal.
And I think our community definitely rated him high at 9. They liked him for his limited good results in the Cardinals bullpen. It seemed like some had him as high as #6 or 7.
I was just expecting to see him lower than top 10. Just my opinion. I accept that I may be wrong and hope Thompson proves me so.
I’m really surprised we haven’t seen Thompson yet on this list. I have him at 14 although basically he was a toss-up with Gomez at 13 on my list. I really have to think that if we offered another organization their choice of either taking Thompson from us in a trade or taking Bernal or Mejia, they’d choose Bernal or Mejia nearly every time. Therefore, those 2 guys are more valuable and likely are better prospects. Thompson is most likely bullpen only now and I’m not real confident that he’ll be better than average there. He may. He was in a small sample size last year with several low and high leverage inning mixed in together. Sure, he’s got the pedigree of a first rounder. But who would you rather have in your organization if you had to lose 2 of the following: Thompson, Bernal, or Mejia? I’d likely keep Bernal first and then Mejia next. And that would be a tough decision between those 2. But Thompson would definitely be out.
I’m happy to have him. We struggle with bullpen lefties and have for many years. And there’s still some time to develop. But is he really top 10? Call me surprised.
I like the Cubs starting rotation. Their bullpen is probably bad though. Although bullpens can be so difficult to guess at. But their lineup still looks terrible. Contreras was their best hitter last year. Maybe Swanson produces at that same level, but probably a little less. Otherwise, I don’t see where they are getting any help outside Hoerner and Haap both being around average. Maybe Merton comes up and hits some home runs? But I doubt he’ll be much better than replacement level. Maybe Bellinger gets to about average as a hitter? I doubt he can get better than that. Overall, I just don’t see them scoring runs. They may still finish in 4th behind a Pirates team that could quietly take a step forward. I for one would love to see the Cubs finish dead last, but it will be hard to finish behind the Reds.
42. Ralston
43. Sawyer
44. RedmondI would vote for Wilking Rodriguez, but it just feels wrong since he doesn’t really fit as a prospect except by technicality.
Rancel Rincon and Samil de la Rosa should both make our list. And, I think Nelfy Ynfante should too. These are all very young guys who have had some good seasons now. I also think Grant, Rotondo, and Marrero should get serious consideration from us. And then there’s still Pinder and Hurst that are probably not more than AAAA guys at this point, but at least they are almost sure things to get at least a handful of MLB at bats at some point. Also, Zuniga who we just gave a roster spot to. And finally, Gustavo Rodriguez had a good season and is also doing spectacular in the winter leagues so I guess I could see him as a fringe top 50 guy as well. I would probably put Heredia a little behind him so probably in the 55-60 range. And I’m just not a fan of Rivas because he can’t really hit. But I can see an argument for him around 50ish too. And I didn’t mention Anyelo Encarnacion who really had a great year with the bat. But he’s so young. I think that’s about everyone – at least everyone outside of some of our other newly drafted pitchers that’s we just haven’t seen enough of yet.
39 Scott
40 Ralston
41 Logan SawyerOthers we should consider:
Rancel Rincon – He had lots of success in the Domican as a starter in 2021, then had several great outings this year in the Complex League and then made a few starts at Palm Beach. Last year I was disappointed to not see Paniagua in the top 50 of TCN list and challenged that one as the only miss. This year, while I don’t feel quite as strongly as I did about Paniagua, Rincon is that miss. I really like the way this guy goes about everything and how quickly he adapts. He’s definitely my favorite unrated prospect.
Osvaldo Tovalin – since we somehow voted in Buchberger, Tovalin is extremely similar in a lot of ways but significantly younger. He’s a really good hitter and semi versatile. And, like Buchberger, he has a penchant for coming up with key RBIs.
Chandler Redmond – Serious power. 4 homers in a game. And he can take a walk. He used to play all over. Now he’s pretty much 1B only. But he does it well.
Scott Hurst – The problem with Hurst has always been that he couldn’t hit – not for average or power. Except that in 2022, he suddenly had an OpS over .800 for much of the season. Plus he’s an excellent defender in the outfield. I actually thought there was an outside chance he could get taken in the Rule 5 draft. He’s suddenly a little interesting again and I’m intrigued.
Chris Rotondo – Drafted as an OF in the later rounds this year, he went out and had a very productive year. I actually really like him (for a late round pick).
Chase Pinder – Always hurt. But when he’s not, he’s an excellent hitter. Plus, he plays all 3 outfield positions well.
Samil de la Rosa – Our best hitter at Palm Beach. And he played all over the infield. Lots of errors, but very young.
Luken Baker – He is like the hulk. Which is really fun when he connects with the baseball. And not so fun when he strikes out or runs the bases.
Andrew Marrero – Did really well now that he’s no longer a starter. Very good reliever results. I’m not really a believer long-term, but the results were great this year.
I’m also a fan of Yordelin Peña and Alfredo Ruiz, but the results aren’t there enough to put them in the top 50 yet. But look for them next year.
Very interesting indeed. That gives us $7.5 million more this year to spend plus the roughly $5 million that was already still in the budget. Not quite Rodon amounts, but perhaps someone else in a trade that helps consolidate our extra pitching?
Ok. I hear you. But part of that is that he walks a lot of guys too and gets some extra outs on the base paths. But point taken. I’m rooting for Tommy. I like him too. But I still believe he’s behind a boatload of guys to ever make it to The Show.
Blingboy, I understand why people like Parsons. He’s got a great back story. He is durable. And he is flexible in that he jumps back and forth from bullpen to starter whenever needed. But the downside is that he’s now 27 and going to be 28 by end of next season. He strikes out less than 1 per inning and he walks half as many as he strikes out. Plus, he’s just so inconsistent and doesn’t really have any plus pitches. Also, we have around 23 pitchers now on the 40 man roster and only 13 can fit in St Louis. So Parsons is behind at least 10 guys from getting called up plus probably several others who are coming up behind him or Whitley who lost his spot. So that’s why I just think he has no chance to make it to St Louis. And, I’m sure we won’t see him in Brian and Blake’s top 50 as well. Therefore, I don’t think he has any discernible value to the Cardinals right now and since this is a Cardinals prospect list, to me I have him somewhere between 68-75. I get that this is just my opinion. I’m just expressing that I don’t think he’s anywhere close to being top 35.
30. Granillo
31. Scott
32. PagesI’m confused. I don’t think Parsons or Buchberger rank in the top 70 Cards prospects, let alone top 30. I like Parsons and am rooting for him, but I just don’t think he will ever make it to the St Louis roster. His stuff just isn’t crisp enough to get MLB hitters out. And he’s so inconsistent. There was almost no chance he was getting taken in the rule 5 draft. I feel almost certain that Buchberger never makes it to the MLB. At least not with the Cardinals. He does have a knack for some timely RBIs. So that’s a plus. But I just don’t see him ever getting past AAA.
Agreed Blingboy! Mo is often surprised by who he’s noted to be pursuing. Swanson really makes no sense at all.
I’d be ok with Jansen – just not real excited. I think if they trade for Jansen though, it means they have a lot of confidence in Herrera being with him in a future equal timeshare. But it’s likely Knizner getting the timeshare for the first half season. Not exciting, but probably an overall improvement to the team depending on who we trade away.
24. Davila
25. Granillo
26. AnticoI really love all 3 of these prospects as under the radar guys (although Antico may not be quite so under the radar now). They all made giant leaps last year and may do the same this next season. Granillo is my favorite underrated prospect in the whole system. But I think 22 on my list is realistically as high as I can put him – which equates to 25 here in this list.
There is no way I’d ever give Carlson for Reynolds – not even straight up let alone throwing in Liberatore too. I don’t see the Cardinals ever offering that trade to Pittsburgh. There’s just nothing to be gained. People are down on Carlson because he hasn’t become great or even really good. But he is still good. And he’s very young with lots of time to get to really good. And maybe he doesn’t get there. But he’s a strong bet for 3-4 WAR each year for the next 5 years. Worst case, he’s a 2.5 WAR player. Best case he’s probably a 5.5 WAR player. He’s 3 years younger than O’Neil, a year younger than Nootbaar still and is the same age as Burly and Moises Gomez. If we had put Gomez and Burleson on our MLB roster 2 years ago they would have struggled mightily. Carlson is a really valuable cheap asset to have around and it would be crazy to trade him for Reynolds.
I don’t know how they can defend ranking Lizandro Espinoza as a better prospect than Moises Gomez. While Lizandro may be an ok hitter, he’s likely limited to second base due to his arm strength, has zero power in a 5’7” frame, and doesn’t run real fast. Best case scenario seems to be future AAAA utility infielder. I can’t imagine that he would have any value to another team if we went to try to trade him. But Gomez certainly has some value. He will definitely be able to hit home runs at the MLB level. And, he plays a passable corner outfielder. There’s just the big question of how many strikeouts will go along with it.
And they have Nathaniel Heredia ahead of him too. Nathaniel is a 22 year old bullpen only pitcher with mixed results at A ball. I actually kind of like him, but again, there’s no way he is more valuable in a trade than Gomez.
