Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Great outing by Liberatore. I know it is the White Sox, but his stuff looked good and he was hitting his spots more than he did last year in starts.
Burly would have been my choice to trade as well as I don’t like DH only types, but I doubt he really had much value or still has much value to warrant someone trading for.
Would you have left Gorman in yesterday to finish the game Albert?
Probably, but I wouldn’t have felt very confident in him. Maybe getting another walk off would improve his confidence and he could get back on track.
Someone needs to tell Edmonds that he doesn’t have to comment on the big LF-CF gap every time. I don’t recall a single time he has mentioned it that a hitter put the ball there.
My gameplan would be to tell the hitters to take as many pitches as they can to get Crochet out of there as fast as possible.
I want to believe in the Pirates as it is nice to see an underdog team, but I am unsure of their offense long term. Jones and Skenes are really exciting, but they don’t have much promise on the offensive side and Nutting won’t spend to bring anyone in.
I’m very happy to see Fermin playing against the Lefty over Gorman as well. Gorman needs a few days off to work on his swing and Fermin deserves the platoon spot for 2B at this time.
I’m actually excited to see Carlson play again this year. Let’s see if he can bring something fresh to this team and get the team on track. Maybe he can play well enough to clearly deserve that starting CF job.
The SB will go up when Edman is back. The team also needs to get on base more and the SB rate will go up as well.
However, this isn’t the track and field, but rather a team sport. How many times last year did you see a Cardinal relief pitcher pitch effectively in garbage time, only to stink up the joint in a close contest?
Kittridge was asked to hold a lead, and he didn’t do it, and we eventually lost he game. Who cares what he does in a mop up role tomorrowI was trying to illustrate to you that you were using WAR as and end be all stat for the results. Yes team wins matter at the end of the day. He has consistently pitched well in high leverage games though and one “bad” game doesn’t make Kitty useless. If anything, the blame is incorrectly being placed on Kitty when it should be on Lynn for walking 2 batters.
It doesn’t really matter. There is 0% chance Kittredge has accumulated 0.7 WAR in 14 innings
Kittredge has allowed 1 earned run over 14 innings for an ERA of 0.64. Assume the replacement level RP has a ERA of 4.5 on average (generous estimate), and they would have allowed 7 runs in that same amount of 14 innings. That is 6 runs of difference in high leverage situations where the game is on the line.
So, rather than adding a full run for each runner to the ERA, you would add whatever that probability is.
Again, you are using the wrong stat. Exactly what you are asking for is available as a stat which is Win Probability Added. Palacios has a WPA (higher is better as it is a summation of % chance added to win probability) 0.61 and Kittredge has a WPA of 0.59. Palacios has been worth 2 more % chance of winning over the season than Kitty.
Not really. Kitredge has accumulated 0.7 WAR in 14 innings. At BEST, he has saved the Cardinals 5 runs. If you factor in inherited runners, he has saved the Cardinals 2 runs.
Meanwhile, Palacios has generated 21 runs. So, if it was 4X, and 5 runs saved equals 5 runs produced, Palacaios would be at 2.8 bWAR by now.
You are using the wrong tool and are basically trying to use a hammer to put a screw into the wall. Runs, RBIs, ERA, and inherited runners allowed are team statistics. WAR is trying to measure the individual players contributions. Even a mediocre player can look great on a bad team when measuring them by runs and RBIs. I’m not saying Palacios hasn’t played great as he definitely has been. But Kittredge himself has also pitched very well. Sure he allowed some inherited runners to score, but how many runners has he prevented over an average RP due to his ability to prevent runners to get on base?
Agreed. O’Niell plays 50% of the time, and was owed $5.5 million. But you trade him for prospects, not relievers.
It takes two to tango. O’Neill’s value had dropped significantly due to his poor play. Add on that we didn’t have leverage as other teams would have known about the “clubhouse” issues from Marmol thus making his value really low. I’m sure Mo tried to get prospects for O’Neill, but if no one was willing to give them up, he can’t force it. Now maybe the better move was to find a new manager and keep O’Neill, but we still do have a clogged OF in the off-season.
WAR is a great tool, but it isn’t the only tool in the box for creating a roster and sabermatricians will state that as well. WAR does a good job of comparing players and their impact. RP definitely do have less of an impact compared to full time players, although you still need them for a good roster.
WAR also tries to account for a single players contributions and not the team’s and thus tries to assume everything the player does in isolation. Some players in the past have looked much better just because the other players on the roster are great and they benefit from it. But if you want to truly evaluate a player, you need to know what he himself contributed.
That philosophy is why RP don’t get hurt for allowing inherited runners to score. In isolation, Kittredge did his job. Now for a team effort, it certainly hurt to allow those runs, but he was dealt a bad hand to begin with of 2 runners on base with no outs. On average, one of those runners is going to score in that scenario.
If you want to know what a player is contributing to the team’s overall chances of winning, I think you want to look at Win Probability Added instead.
It is also worth noting that O’Neill was this forums whipping boy the last 2 years. The majority wanted him gone while a few did want him to stick around given his tools. Fans are too eager to over react to both under performance and over performance. Sometimes patience is key.
This is with the benefit of hindsight and also ignores surpluses and needs. In the off-season, it was generally seen that we had more OFs than roster spots for them while we also had a weak BP. While I was a fan of both O’Neill and Palacios, I understood the trades at the time. I also don’t think O’Neill would be playing nearly as well on this team with Marmol and the tensions there.
I doubt anyone here or anywhere predicted the Cardinals top 3 CF options in Edman, Carlson, and Nootbar would be in the IL at the same time. We knew about Edman, but not the extent and I doubt even the Cardinals FO knew the extent given their comments. Now I do think the Cardinals were way too aggressive with Scott as he should have been in AAA to start the season, but I lurked these boards and many were clamoring for Scott to make the team as well.
In general, comparing WAR in a trade isn’t a good measure as each team has different needs and those teams may be in different timelines of competitiveness. Sure RP don’t earn a lot of WAR, but without good RP your team can’t maintain leads consistently. It also becomes much more difficult to win in the playoffs where RP are even more vital.
ZTR, I don’t feel as confident in our rotation long term. Gray is an obvious ace, but after him we have a bunch of mediocre pitchers. I know Lynn and Gibson have good ERAs, but both are by all measures expected to have mid 4s for an ERA and are due for regression.
I do think the bullpen is much improved this year.
Bling yeah the splitter went away because people thought it caused injuries. A lot of research has shown the cause of injuries isn’t the pitch types, but the velocity. Thus the splitter is making a resurgence a little in the US. Look at the top Japanese pitchers though that have came over and they all throw it and well.
Lynn does not look good so far against a really bad lineup. I expect him to pitch more like this the rest of the year.