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@jnevel Interesting observations on the OF. The jury is still out on Davis, but he hasn’t looked good so far.
Cubs win with another masterpiece by Imanaga. 7 shutout IPs, 7 Ks, 1BB, and 4 hits. I doubt he would have wanted to sign in Stl, but he would have been a great signing.
Bling, we will have to disagree.
But, I won’t try to get you off the bandwagon, the herd has stampeded off that direction and its where to be at the moment.
Haha well I would rather be with the times than refusing to adapt and going to the way of dodo. What works at one point won’t work when the environment around you changes. You don’t pass the herd by refusing to change. You pass the herd by taking the good that the leaders of the herd are doing and innovating with further improvements.
My fear is the short attention span crowd have forgetten all about the past failures with the ‘stuff’ types, and buy into this latest red herring, with the results that the current regime lives on, and all the new hard throwers turn out like the old hard throwers.
My fear is people fabricating the Cardinals focus on ‘stuff’ and also assuming the pitch to contact types have been our successful pitchers. Every public organization that analyzes MLB teams have long noted the Cards pitch to contact approach on player acquisitions; the Cardinals FO itself has came out and said they had this approach as well. Despite all the evidence pointing to the Cards being a pitch to contact org, how do people think we have prioritized stuff as an org?
What actual players at the top of the MLB draft have the Cards taken that have been stuff over command types? Tink Hence who is one of our 2 pitchers that looks to have #3 starter or better potential with Roby being the other and he is also a stuff guy. Why aren’t all of these pitch to contact types like McGreevy succeeding to be our front line starters? We have taken some players in IAFA that have had great stuff like Alex Reyes, and the unfortunate part of good stuff is the increased injury risk and it wreaked him. Jordan Hicks is another stuff guy and our pitching coaching was horrible and now we are watching him excel in SF throwing still with an average FB of 97.2.
Yes thanks Brian as I couldn’t seem to find this with a search when posting on mobile.
Fangraphs definitely seems low on fielding grades quite often, although admittedly there is much less video of fielding for scouts to get a hold of on minors players. One I found striking was the older report on Nootbaar that he was a power only bat that couldn’t field enough and would be destined to 1B.
For the current Cards, I was a little surprised to see him Roby projected as a RP, although he does state mechanical issues and the blurp states Roby has mid rotation upside. To me, the interesting part is getting to compare various outlets on individual players. Blake and MLB.com have Roby as a 55 command potential, while Fangraphs has him at 40
Winn with a 50 power projection and statements of thinking he will grow into power are exciting. With his glove (I’m personally higher on Winn’s potential with the glove than 50) and arm, he would likely have some 5+ WAR seasons if he can get to 20 HRs like he projects.
Hjerpe’s report is actually more exciting to me than I thought it would be given his command problems. I was glad to see his stuff is above average given his deception and a deadly slider. Let’s hope he can put it together.
Other exciting things for me were the reports on Quinn Matthews and Chen-Wei Lin. I assumed Matthews velocity was up given his results, but it was great to read it has been mid 90s. Lin’s upside seems great if he can learn to control that big body. I was also really glad to hear he throws a splitter and it has plus potential.
We do really look to be lacking on the hitting side after some recent graduations. I think we are okay given the youth on our MLB roster for a while, but it would be nice to restock there. Davis’s having really bad swing and miss problems doesn’t help there. We have a few utility types like Saggesse/Prieto and then a bunch of C’s and not a whole lot of upside on batters. I’m still excited about Jonathan Meija and his ceiling; I’m admittedly a sucker for up the middle players though with the potential to have an average bat at least with some power.
My question is, why is Flaherty suddenly a great pitcher again? You are seeing that more and more. Players “suddenly” can play once they leave St Louis. Do the Red Sox have a better pitching coach? Better manager?
Yeah I think other teams have better pitching coaches and a better pitching philosophy that make much better use of analytics than we do while also tailoring the adjustments to the individual pitcher and their biomechanics. That is why I would like to bring in someone from Seattle or some other good pitching org to see what they are doing different.
Are you saying that the velocities of other organizations’s top pitcher picks is higher?
Yes other teams are drafting pitchers more based off of stuff rather than command and then trying to teach those pitchers to well, pitch. This is risky but with good upside. The Cardinals draft safe control focused pitchers that don’t have above average stuff, which is safer with high floors of being MLB players, but not as much payoff of developing #3 types or higher. Velocity isn’t the only determining factor though as you can have above average stuff while throwing any velo. But generally as velo goes up, stuff does go up as it means less time for the hitter to react. Other orgs are targeting high. Spin rates and deception are another part of stuff that can be targeted.
I’m not going to do a full comparison of the drafts, but I’ll have selection bias of the Mariners who have been a pitching factory as of late. I’m only picking players that have reached the majors and look like #4 or better starters to save myself some time. It isn’t completely apples to apples as they had some picks higher than us, but they also found some good SP in rounds 4 and 6 lately. I also don’t know how George Kirby lasted that long with the stuff he had and that amazing control. I guess it was he was from a smaller school, but he certainly looks like a front line starter now.
Year Round OvPck Name Type Velocity Control 2021 4 113 Bryce Miller 4Yr 94-97 30/45 2021 6 174 Bryan Woo 4Yr 93-96 30/40 2020 1 6 Emerson Hancock 4Yr 93-96 35/55 2019 1 20 George Kirby 4Yr 91-96 55/70 2018 1 14 Logan Gilbert 4Yr 94-97 44/55I am confused. Is the perceived problem that the Cardinals are drafting too many high velocity pitchers or not enough of them? Are they taking the wrong guys and trying to turn them into something they are not?
Once the problem is clear, then what should be done about it?
I would like to see the Cards try and steal some front office people from Seattle to get an injection of good ideas into the org on the pitching side. As far as draft strategies, I think the Cards could do a better job of targeting upside players with our top draft picks. The org has done an exceptional job of turning the mid round position player draft picks into MLB starters, so they are doing something right. The consistency of the org of finding MLB starters later though to me means they have more luxury to take upside picks at the top of the draft. Some will bust but they can hopefully find some stars. The 2020 draft they certainly took upside with Walker, Hence, and Winn, and those 3 have the potential to be homegrown All-Stars, but time will tell. Our pitcher draft choices have seem extra conservative and we are not developing our own SP as even these floor picks aren’t developing enough to be MLB SP. We aren’t developing #5 SPs, let alone #3 and above. I would like to target pitchers with more upside with bigger stuff and trying to teach them to pitch.
EDIT: To add on, I do want to say I would stick with Flores as the Scouting Director. He has had some good choices and whatever he is doing to find solid mid rounders, we need to continue. I think having some new ideas injected into the pitching philosophy could help us turn around our pitching selections and development. I would be in favor of replacing some people in the development side of the organization though.
With respect to drafting, the Cardinals too often go for players they perceive as “safe” picks to make the show in the first round. I am talking about pitchers, of course.
Yep this is what my thoughts are on our pitching draft choices.
The bats are really starting to warm up. Donny and Noot with over 700 OPS now. League average and on the way up as of late
That is exactly what I want to see Burly doing. Pulling the ball in the air on an inside pitch. Those will squeak out of the park and tally onto the HR count.
I just looked at the Pittsburgh box score and wow Skenes pitched great his 2nd game. 6 no hit innings with 11 Ks and 1 BB.
Agreed 1TD. I dont want to give up on Gorman for some early season struggles as a 24 year old. He certainly has some improvements to make, but he has plenty of time to do it and he has the tools to be great
Bling, the Cards have consistently drafted slower throwing more control oriented pitchers in the 1st 3 rounds since Flores took over (and really before as well). I went through our top 3 rounds of draft picks that were pitchers and pulled their noted velocity from the year they were draft along with their projected control. Only 1 has been an above average SP (Gallen) and unfortunately that was after he left our org.
The Cardinals haven’t really taken any SP that would have great stuff overall. The Cards have had some flame throwing RP they have acquired under Flores (Fernandez), but we aren’t drafting them with our top picks for the most part. The industry and prior reports all show that we as an org have focused on pitch to contact types. Even Mo has came out and said they had this approach and are now in 2024 shifting. My question is this; why would we keep going down the route of drafting pitch to contact when we aren’t developing MLB starters? Shouldn’t we try something else?
Year Round OvPck Name Type Velocity Control 2022 1 22 Cooper Hjerpe 4Yr 88-92 35/55 2022 2 59 Brycen Mautz 4Yr 90-94 35/60 2022 3 97 Pete Hansen 4Yr 88-92 35/55 2021 1 18 Michael McGreevy 4Yr 91-94 45/55 2021 3 90 Austin Love 4Yr 92-95 45/55 2020 2 63 Tink Hence HS 90-94 25/55 2020 3 93 Levi Prater 4Yr 88-92 great 2019 1 19 Zack Thompson 4Yr 91-94 45/50 2019 3 96 Tony Locey 4Yr mid 90s weak command 2018 1 43 Griffin Roberts 4Yr 90-93 45/50 2016 1 34 Dakota Hudson 4Yr 92-95 50/45 2016 2 70 Connor Jones 4Yr 90-92 40/50 2016 3 106 Zac Gallen 4Yr 89-93 45/50Fangraphs released their Cardinals prospect lists, and they don’t think too highly of the system which makes sense. We don’t have Star level players as we as an org have been too high in the high floor types.
@blingboy you should be ecstatic what the industry thinks of the Cards. You are always preaching the Cards should focus on command over velocity, and that is what the org has done to a resounding lack of success on the pitching side.A common theme among a lot of the pitchers in this system is that they have deeper than usual arsenals along with a mix of feel and/or deception, and St. Louis also has a lot of soft-tossers who haven’t been able to find more velocity in pro ball.
ATM, that’s a decent analysis. I’m curious as to Burleson’s home run potential if would try to pull the ball more.
Yeah this is something I had pointed out in a gameday thread the other day. Burly does have a profile where he would hit more HRs if he pulled the ball more instead of splitting evenly on pull, center, and oppo. I don’t think he has to make a drastic change, but if he can focus on hitting more inside pitches and pulling them in the air he will find himself hitting more HRs. Isaac Paredes is a great example of how average raw power can turn into above average in game results if you pull the ball in the air.
@Shady Long term, Walker and Gorman. They have tools that Burleson doesn’t have. Fans are quick to dismiss prospects who don’t succeed immediately, but Walker is a very young man with sky high potential. Even Jackson Holiday struggled in his initial MLB appearance this year and many other young players such as Julio Rodriquez and Corbin Carroll have as well this year. Walker still has plenty of time to put it together and has been taking much better ABs, striking out less, and getting more hits in AAA albeit with the power lagging behind. I’m not too worried about that as he needs to work on his approach and the power will come.
Gorman has a really interesting skill set. He has 40 HR power potential while playing average-ish to slightly below average 2B defense. I think he will always be streaky with the K’s, but his upside is a multiple time All-Star. His walk rates will also lead to him getting on base at a league average rate I suspect despite him likely always running league average or below BA.
No disrespect to Burly though. Burly has been playing very well and I am excited to see him hitting for more power. His upside isn’t what Walker and Gorman have though as he will always be a below average base runner, below average fielder, his walk rates are very low, and his power likely won’t ever be plus. He can compensate for the walk rate a little potentially with a really good BA. I see him as being a solid role piece though.
Meija was back in the lineup today for FCAR which was good to see. 2 for 3 again today and he is slashing .320/.433/.600 albeit a small sample size of 25 ABs. If he keeps playing well, I doubt it takes long for them to send him back to Palm Beach.
A Roku game? I understand from a business perspective that each streaming service wants to get into sports for the money. However, the more that enter the sports competition, the worse the user experience gets. Before you know it, you’ll need 10 streaming service where you are paying $15 a month just to watch your favorite sports teams on a consistent basis. I for one have been trying to vote with my wallet / viewership and havent been watching the random Apple / Roku, etc games.
Goldy! Maybe since his April and mid May was so bad, his summer months will be extra good. He has always been a slow starter, but this year just looked different for him with so many bad swing decisions. Still some in this game too though
I thought for sure Siani was going to get a hit out of that. Good job by Canning though to field it.
The best thing that could happen to Hjerpe is if he could somehow follow Jordan Hicks out the door. Get somewhere where they would have him dial it back a couple ticks
Being a little bit picky, but everything I’ve read about Hjerpe already has him being a slow throwerat around 89 MPH on his fastball. It is a little concerning his control has dropped off so much as out of college he was projected by the industry to be average to above average efor future control. Hjerpe is a really funky side armer which may be why he is suddenly having more control problems. But that funk is why in college hitters and the minors so far have struggled to hit off him.