[thejager]

CC…i think that is a very good point… a second choice isnt always a “bad” choice… and no one knows how Heyward or Price would have done in STL or Leake somewhere else…

what i am saying is that we have swung and missed at some big targets recently, (you can include some international signings as well)…if the front office obviously targets these guys for a reason and actively is willing to pay a lot for them even beyond their comfort at times…unfortunately they may hve to redefine that level of discomfort if they are wanting to continually target some of these higher end FAs and trade targets etc…. either that, or stop targeting them and spend your time on things you can comfortably attain….

i still believe we would might have made the playoffs had we targeted Gray from Oakland (for Piscotty and Flaherty) earlier instead of investing so much in a possible Lynn deal that never happened… not only would it have helped during the year it would have helped in the offseason to make some of these decisions easier…from whether to re-sign Lynn or not, to finding another potential starter, to clearing up a 40 man spot, to the outfield and young starter clutter, and longer term rotation concerns

and at the end of the day it is all in the past…but it seems to be part of a potential pattern where we want to do something but it is comfortable enough or we hit our line in the sand…and other teams chomp at the bit and take advantage of us doing so… whether it is the Padres just waiting for us to not protect a prospect, or us investing too much time in a Lynn deal that had to be perfect, or missing out on Robert, or not throwing the extra money at Heyward or Price, or GOurriel (possibly both of them), even to missing out on Kang by a few bucks a while back…

We have so many moves that seemingly need to take place this offseason that we need to be prepared for some of them to be uncomfortable if we want to get them done…..it may not work out and we may end up with second choices who end up ok or even good, we may lose prospects in the Rule 5, we may get stuck with paying more for a lesser talent…

i guess to me id just rather lose the extra money or prospects on what we actually want rather than what we have to settle for…. IF i am going to give up more

sorry…morning babbling…

[thejager]

Mike…i dont think Girardi will last long on the open market if he wants to coach this year…if not…then perhaps that scenario coudl play out…

I think Oquendo would get the gig if MM bowed out early…he did interview for the job back when MM was hired right? I also think Clapp might get a shot as well

[thejager]

also that’s again not the point…

the point is in generalities…not the specifics… it’s about getting the guy we WANT instead of the guy we are forced to settle on

hindsight on performance doesnt really matter to me…the point i was making was on being aggressive in the market to get the things you want instead of hoping that what falls to you gives you good returns

i think missing on Price lead to Leake and missing Heyward led eventually to Fowler…perhaps the deals will end up being awesome in hindsight but that really isnt the point

if you target Machado and get Asdrubal Cabrera…it doesnt mean the Cabrera signing is bad for whatever it is worth… the point is you didnt get your top choice….and that is what i woudl like us to do

sure you strike out doing that sometimes too (perhaps Cecil?)…

still if you are targeting an Ace and settle for a #3

[thejager]

grats to Yadi

Barnhardt had a pretty impressive season behind the dish…didnt see alot of Posey this year, and a lot of Molina who i think was much improved from last year

will be a tough call, Barnhardt might deserve it but not get it… Posey or Molina will probably always get bonus points for past and offensive prowess (though Barnhrdt wasnt a total slouch on offense)

[thejager]

oh! good call CC

I wanted to ask about his contract too…i thought i knew waht was going on with him this coming year but at some point i read something different and now i am confused again
Brian..can you give a quick explanation?

[thejager]

i have been worried about our SS depth for years now…and still am…Dejong and Diaz both dont seem like the long term solutions in the field, even if their bats are nice…I know wanting Simmons might be a pipe dream but that kind of move woudl definitely clear up any issues in the middle infield and SS specifically…

i am curious about Delvin too Brian…tough call on where to place him…

as for his trade value…we kind of bought low on him to begin with as his draft stock dropped after the substance issue right? I am definitely nto as high as i wanted to be on him right now…last year i wouldnt have given him up for much…but now, and despite knowing he is young i am ready to move him if need be…everyone is on the table to get us reorganized…

[thejager]

i dont think the Cubs will spend all that money either…i am just saying that they CAN spend a lot of money if they so choose

again..the point of my numbers was to say that the Cubs have a lot of money they are taking off the books this year and they could spend even more than they did this year if they wanted so the exact amount isnt the point… the point is they have a huge payroll and obviously can spend whatever they want and arent afraid to spend a lot to get what they want

i dont think they will, as i agree with what someone else said about their kids…they have another couple years but those big paydays for their cheap young players are coming and they are going to be huge paydays when they do come…which might lead them to trade a few of them right now to get bigger parts for their rotation longer term and then those big paydays would be lesser…if they need to start paying their kids around 2020-2021 they could trade a few and sign a few short term Fas that would coincide with those big raises coming onto the books

but there is a real possibility they throw big money to keep Davis and Arrieta and then also trade for a big time pitcher on a lower amount contract (ala Quintana) like Archer or Stroman….then replace the lost parts with a few other FA parts

i think we need to be fast or we will get outmaneuvered…we have assets and money, and may have to pay abit more to act fast, but i think if we wait too long we will end up with Mike Leake solutions when what we really want are David Price solutions

[thejager]

seems like a strong hire

i read Maddux said StL was his top choice

[thejager]

Pads…i just went to Spotrac…i guess it was off…but it wasnt off by a crazy amount of anything the basic idea still applies

also on the baseball reference site it looks like that is pretty close
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/chicago-cubs-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

but again the exact amount isnt the point anyways…they can bring on major salaries to fill all their desires and still be around what they paid this year

[thejager]

We need to make a lot of changes though and protecting more guys from the possibility of moving makes it harder to make a deal happen

to me…Molina, Wainwright, CMart are untouchable…

Reyes is close but i’d offer him up on the right deal to make it impact the rest of the deal or the farm
I was fine with moving Kelly for the right deal before Knizner had a big year and i still am ok with it…
Weaver is close now…but i like that his value is really high right now…he may be a good sell high guy who actually can hold that sell high price with his youth and upside

but again..moving any of these guys has to be for good deals…I dont want to lose Kelly and Reyes in a deal for Donaldson…now if it was Donaldson, Stroman, Osuna…maybe we have something going…especially if we coudl pair that with a deal for Stanton utilizing a quantity style deal instead of super high quality…

it will be a crazy offseason though….we could go in so many directions and each move will effect each future move….i think we are going to make at least one big move very fast out of the gate into the offseason…and maybe some smaller deals to free up 40 man space..

there are ways i’d prefer us to go…but there are so many options at this point it is hard to even think what is “best”

but GScott…i get the sentiment…i’d prefer to keep out young pitchign too…but i just dont see how we can while still making the deals we seemingly need to make to bring the changes we want…unless we go the FA only route…which still woudl hurt the 40man problems and glut in the outfield..

[thejager]

I think Eversgard will get a look but will probably end up with the bullpen coach job as long as the new pitchign coach is cool with it

I like Maddux and Hickey…but we will have to really drop coin to pry hickey i think from the Cubs grasp

[thejager]

agreed on the Cubs just buying whatever they need to fill any holes…with how cheap their core offensive players and contributors are they really wont be pushing much money anyways

they are at 177million right now…that bumps down to 94million for 2018 without additions and raises

roughly 83million just to not go over payroll of this year

so for giggles:
Darvish 25mil per year
Arrieta 20mil per year
Davis 15mil per year

that’s only 60 million

Throw in Cain for 15mil per year

add in some raises and they are still right about where they were this year

that doesnt even take into account any trades they could pull off with their young guys…a Schwarber for Archer deal would wreck the NL Central…they could throw in others to make it work and still have a big advantage in budget wars and young cheap talent…

let’s say Hendricks + Schwarber for Archer…yeah they lose their own young SP cheap talent but they get back a front end starter for cheap…they lose Schwarber who doesnt have a fit anyways…Rays get a young SP and a young power slugger…if they could get away without moving Hendriks in the deal great…but i think Hendricks Schwarber would get it done…it woudl add a bit to the budget but ARcher is cheap

they go into 2018 with:

-Darvish, Archer, Lester, Arrieta,…Montgomery or whomever….doesnt really matter
-Cain, Happ, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Heyward, Rizzo, Contreras …no order
-Davis, Edwards in the back end…youngsters and a couple cheap RPs fill out the rest
-bench is Almora, Zobrist, Caritini etc.

i dont see any real weakness outside of a #5 starter and a little bullpen depth…but they have 4 Aces and Davis and Edwards are pretty nice out of the back 2

and that really isnt with spending much more money than they already have but so what? it’s not like they are hurting for money and their kids big paydays are still aways off

[thejager]

Brian…why would i be sorry i asked? I have no agenda…. i wanted the information to have a better idea instead of just using the 100 win season sellout number as that seemed a high water mark for regular season success (which to me seems linked to overall larger attendances in theory)

i appreciate the information as that is not something i readily know where to find

can you go farther back than 4 years?

It would be interesting to see how the sellouts mirror the regular season successes over the years

it would also be interesting to see how those sellouts are spread out over the year…and relate that to the team’s early season record

-this past year i think was undone because of the early season struggles in wins and losses combined with the poor fundamentals…even though the team was in it all year the team “felt” like it was bad because of that early season problems and i think the low sellouts are probably indicative of that

-the year before last…i kind of blame the Cubs running away early with the division having a huge lead in the standings that made people stay away…again…they were in ti all year, but looking at the standings every day and seeing the Cubs up by double digits in the divisions just makes you “feel” like the team isnt worth going to watch

-the 100 win season was a fun ride, we were up all year and only stalled at the end of the year IMO when the injuries really piled up…that high win total and leading the division definitely gets people into the park…but really was the team that much better than the last two years?

-2014 was coming off our WS appearance so sellouts would seem to be a given after a run like that…and the team was good and was good enough to make the NLCS…they won 90 games and were in 1st for 45 days (1.3 of the season ish)…the division was tight the whole year with us never being in 1st by more than 4.5…and we were behind by 6.5 at one point that season too…a tight race where we are in the lead 1/3 of the time, coming off a WS appearance and a good team sellouts seem obvious

again…i think sellouts are definitely an interesting thing to look at and the last 2 years are definitely telling…i just want to see more information…that is my agenda

[thejager]

very interesting…definitely soft

though with a 100 win team is that the best bar for measurement?

what was it the year before?

[thejager]

while it may have been clunky..i did express it was TWO years…. (first year healing from injury…after that working at his own pace… it is in my first line of my post)

and i know of that article but not really any proof

i did forget the 1987 reunion thing…though is that really a slight at MM? seems a weird way to take it out on MM. To me that reads more as a problem with MOz or the front office more than MM, as MM has nothign to do with that old team and not showing up for his old teammates really doesnt hurt MM in any way…it does kind of slap the front office in the face though

as for your inside sources…i dont see why you’d lie so i dont mind taking them into account, and to be honest it isnt that i think there is NOTHING to some behind the scenes issues it is just that i think often people take small things and blow them up to be more than they actually are…it dosnt mean that the smoke that started the discussion didnt exist it just didnt need to be more than smoke yet can often turn into a blaze

At the end of the day, i think there was something that happened with MM or the organization, but it couldnt have been so bad for Oquendo as he didnt leave the organization and now he is back manning his post at 3b….

disagreements or fights or hurt feelings or whatever happen in the clubhouse or the boardroom or the dugout or the practice fields or wherever…that doesnt mean that leads to total breaks or no ways to mend the problems…

was there a rift? we will never know for sure… but what we do know is that it wasnt a rift to the point that forced Oquendo to leave the organization or make him not come back…

[thejager]

I dunno Brian… Oquendo healing for a year after surgery and being away makes sense…being down in Florida after that working at his own pace without all the flying and day to day stresses of 3B coaching

Mo going down there to personally chat with him is interesting but far from proof of a rift between him and Matheny….it could just as easily be trying to coax and convince a guy who was basically retired to come out of retirement after an injury put him there and he realized he liked it…

could there ALSO be some disagreements in coaching styles? sure…id kind of expect there to be with any set of coaches…but Oquendo did not stop being 3b coach he had a n injury that forced him out…deciding to come back or not is a totally different question

I am all for reinterpreting the situation and facts though… will you post the quotes and articles with the sources for the “rift” line of thinking?

[thejager]

Or maybe all the hubbub about Owen do not liking Matheny was all overblown or nonexistent

[thejager]

that’s the big question Perkins isnt it…

I think everyone wants to groom them, but when you dont have time to groom them you pay for them…

but looking at the playoff teams how many of the lights out closers are homegrown

Yanks have Betances but Chapman, Robertson make him a look a lot better
Giles isnt the Stros..and whiel he has been groomed a bit in the spot he came over in a mpt small trade with the Phils
Davis isnt the Cubs
Jansen is homegrown right? so there is one
Kimbrel isnt the Sox
Miller isnt the Indians
all the pen for the Nats isnt theirs right?
Rodney isnt a Dback
Holland and Mcgee arent Rox
Belisle? isnt a Twin

now they arent all TOP flight closers making huge money… but outside Jansen and Betances none of them are homegrown

I think Rosy is worth waiting for…he has proved it before and even this year…and he isnt expensive…but a young arm with experience and velocity that we already know is a hard thing to find..Reyes can help but is unproven, Alcantara and Hudson are a coin flip and the rest are uninspiring IMO…Tui would be interesting but hasnt done anything to deserve the role, BRebbia i like but him being Socolovich 2.0 is a real possibility… Lyons has been impressive and while he earned the shot it seems a gamble…

Nicasio was solid, but he tends to be pretty streaky…i’d be willing to sign him for competition for the spot but i’d want another vet option too just in case…NEshek, and a few others will be available

Holland isnt worth the investment and his up and down year, i just dont trust him

Davis to me is the one you want if you’re going to pay for one…and he probably is worth it…but he is the golden goose for the offseason so i dont know if we’d be willing to throw as much as the Cubs or whomever will be throwing money

[thejager]

CC…i feel like Ozuna had a few rough years but interesting

so are you just sayin’ you’d not be interested in Ozuna?

[thejager]

as much as i wasnt a huge fan of going after Turner last offseason it really seems like we swung and missed for what to figure out

not that Turner would be the best #3 hitter but he seems like the type of #3 hitter we needed

but we did not go after him and instead bent the knee to the fans who were clamoring about how bad Grichuk was in CF (even though eh really didnt rate that poorly)…and then we got Fowler (even though some of our best prospects were CFers)

add in that management thought Peralta was ok (why woudlnt they?) and having plenty of internal handcuffs for 3b…Turner just didnt seem the guy to go with

sure it is all hindsight…and Turner had some red flags too…but not getting that veteran middle of the
order bat really messed us up… we added a good player in Fowler but he was pretty redundant within the the team (leadoff we already had, Cf prowess we had coming from the minors at worse and Grich wasnt THAT bad, even speed in the running game we had coming up from the minors)

we put our entire hope for production in the middle of the lineup (and the lineup itself) on:
-Carp at 3 which he never did…just projected him to do well in it
-Piscotty to at least provide similar production…
-Grichuk to get a little better…didnt..stayed the same
-PEralta to provide steady even if declining ability
-Diaz being productive again and at least not WORSE at SS

all 5 of those things did not work out…that’s basically 2-5 in our lineup…you could even put Fowler leading off and igniting us as something we banked on and it didnt happen…so 1-6 in our lineup was all hopes and all of it flamed out…and MM had to find a way to make something work…but when your offensive team makeup plan goes 6/8ths in the wrong way…what are you supposed to expect?

that is why i think MM did a pretty great job managing this year…not because he didnt make mistakes, and didnt cost us some games with his decisions IMO, but because he took all the poor play, injuries, and misputtogether parts and found a way to put a playoff contending team on the field..

[thejager]

what about snagging Ziegler form the Marlins

as part of a bigger deal for one of the outfielders OR just by himself…

i am sure they’d like to move his salary

a Stanton Ziegler deal would be nice…

[thejager]

Didnt Brian already come in once and tell everyone to stay on baseball?

just stop, if you dont want to talk about the topic then dont comment…if you cant make a comment without attacking someone or backhandedly talking about someone then dont comment…

if we cant do this then we should shut this thread down as all it is doing is provoking and antagonizing people

id prefer the topic stay open and people to talk about baseball…but some people dont seem to be able to state their opinion without antagonizing another poster or group of posters at the same time…if you ant make your argument without putting someone else down for having their own argument then it is pointless

Some people cant seem to disassociate a person from a person’s opinion, nor can some people consider that opinions change over time, or that some people can write something just to talk about it whether they agree or not…

i include myself in this “demand”…and thus will end my post that is specifically about what shouldnt be happening albeit not-maliciously…

im not a moderator obviously so listen or dont listen…but really are we all not adults enough to stop this bickering without Brian having to step in?

Id say just about everyone in here is part of the problem, so that means it’s everyone’s job to be a part of the solution…so everyone should make a change…myself included

[thejager]

why is it that defending MM or taking the time to defend him regardless of personal opinions is deemed a fanboy?

no matter what anyone tries to “prove” this issue is NOT black and white…good or terrible…and the management of the team has decided he is their guy at least for one more turn this next year…we can endlessly debate MM but they guys upstairs must be seeing something that would make them make that decision…if it wa so obvious then he wouldnt be back….they can make mistakes too…but they obviously see something in him…whether you like that reason or not it has been made..

so positing BCC or anyone else as being the ONLY ones that think MM is capable and deserving of keepign his job and another chance are definitely not alone…and perhaps unfortunately for many posters and fans that opinion is the one that is putting the manager in the dugout so that position and opinion has weight

trying to tease out why they go with that decision is not simple but it does take discussion to try to figure out AND coming to it with an open mind and without personal feelings…we all fail at that some times…but some people dont even try…

so without personal opinions in place why would the Cardinals decide to give MM another year? if it is all so obvious what are the obvious reasons he is getting another chance? It is a business and if it was so unbelievably obvious i dont see why Dewitt wouldnt make the move.

To me it reads as management still likes MM for the reasons they hirewd him…he did well early and has made a competitive playoff team every year even if he has missed out the last two years. And IMO they have determined that major factors to the Cards missing out have come from sources outside of MMs control, whether that is injury, death, poor play, luck perhaps even their own inability to give him the parts he needs to win. And because of that they are giving him one more year to get it figured out…

Which to me leads to the inevitable next question which is…unless they are willing to drastically change the team and some of those things that kept MM from succeeding with the club i dont see why he is staying///which is why i think they will be very active

i think the management sees a guy who is only a few pieces away from putting a very good team back on the field…he has already shown he an win a lot of games with the right players…and i think they know they have missed out on some of the guys that were supposed to help…and some of the projects and kids havent panned out the way they wanted…regardless of MMs impact on them

There is alto of pressure on management, coaching, and the players to get into the playoffs…i dont want to say “turn it around” because we have missed the playoffs the last two years by like 5 games total)…which to me seems like the clear identifier that the team needs a few key pieces…

the way MM managed this season with all the new kids and veteran upheaval with performance and injury IM was exemplary…and that is what management sees IMO…they see a guy who didnt have much to work with but ended up staying in it…

plus i think management had given up at the trade deadline yet despite that MM still pushed the team to the brink of the playoffs…and i think that management knows they made that mistake which is probably the reason the team didnt make the playoffs…we didnt need a ton more wins jsut a few…and few moves would have been all that it took…i also think they recognize their own failure last offseason after seeing how things turned out this year…an i think they recognize that isnt on MM…it’s on them…

now that isnt all of it otherwise Lilly would be back…there obviously was something going on with pitcher management that we dont know much about…

anyways…

Brian…nice link…though it is pretty surface level..id like to see the actual metrics instead of just referring to them with an offhanded remark… i thin kthe guy is super smart…but anyone could say well i have done all this research and it shows so and so is the best hitter ever…im not going to show you that info but i am going to say it

[thejager]

You didnt like Duke Pads??

i thought he did well in his time with us…id be interested to see him for a whole year

[thejager]

if winning percentage is ONLY the manner of determining worth then MM still rates pretty high…

he may have trended down in the last two years… but he is still far from terrible…

we were 12th in wins…out of 30
we tied for 11th in 2016
and 1st in 2015…
and 5th in 2014

that doesnt look like a manager who does know what he is doing…it looks like one who has never dropped below 12th in the league in getting wins

IF we are going by wins as the sole determining factor… just simple wins and losses as determiner…MM has done very well compared to the rest of the league

sure a drop from 1st to 1th and 12th is big…but reasons dont matter in wins and losses as the sole determiner of worth for the manager…if he is as bad as some of you say then by the same standard he must have been the BEST as well…which no one seems to ever give him any credit for…

they blame him all day for the last two years but then say 2015 and 2014 he had no part of…that is absolutely illogical and completely bias to your opinion…

me i dont think wins and loses tell the whole story…and obviously not… but when you get into that WHOLE story it gets REALLY complicated REALLY fast…

so show me a better tool for determining manager worth than wins and losses…but if it comes back to vague opinions and specific games as proof that is just anecdotal information…

people still think our defense was abysmal…yet
-tied for 15th….ahead of everyone in the division except Cincy..and 5/10 playoff teams are lower than us…but advanced fielding metrics blah blah…people comment and discuss and REMEMBER errors more than range concerns.
-and defensive runs saved we were +4 13th…2nd in the division
– and YES we still rate very low on defense in several categories…

but we arent the worst by any stretch even if people think we are…AND we got better throughout the year if you look closer into the numbers…getting much better after the beginning of the year…

and YES…we should expect better…but this isnt black and white…we are far more towards being good than we are to being terrible

it just runs around and around…

i found this article on fangraphs from 2016:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-should-we-evaluate-a-manager/

doesnt make it much clearer..

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