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Jager, teams don’t usually disclose which players’ contracts they insure and how much (full or partial). I have been told premiums can be high, so in some cases, teams “self-insure,” which means they take on the risk themselves.
Another factor is the size and length of the contract. A younger player on a one-year deal, like Rosenthal, would be less likely to be an insurance candidate than an older player on a long-term deal, like Fowler, for example. One other potential consideration is that given Rosenthal’s current injury status, a policy on his yet-to-be-determined 2018 contract may be quite expensive.
In summary, my guess is that insurance is not a significant issue with Rosenthal for 2018. IMO, the big financial hurdle will be deciding whether to pay him the salary he will be due as a sixth-year player.
I have never heard of a team taking out injury insurance on a player for time he is not under contract. Not even sure an insurer wiuld do it. Not saying it doesn’t or can’t happen just that I have never heard of it.
Right, CC. I realize I did not make that point clear. On the other hand, the team could likely get a feeling from the insurer on what it might cost for a policy based on potential contract amounts. They could use that information in guiding them in setting their 2018 strategy with Boras. But getting the policy itself would logically not be able to be done until/unless the contract is set.
For an injured player on a one-year deal, my guess is the cost of the policy would be prohibitive.
Of course, there is no reason the two sides could not agree on a new contract today, if that was their shared desire.
Lynn was coming back from TJ and his performance overall was average. His WAR was lower than Waino’s. His FIP was 4.82. His era and FIP went up from 2015 so did his walk rate and home runs allowed. The only thing that went down was his k rate. Just say no Lynn.
Lynn may be a great test case for how the free agent market is affected by sabermetrics. By the saber numbers, Lynn might be lucky to get 4/40.
Well I can’t imagine Lynn would get less than Leake got. He will probably get 5 years and between 90-100M.
thanks Brian…makes sense
i just wondered if when negotiating the new contract if we want to give one for his last arb year that they may put in insurance into the deal to protect themselves somewhat…
i hadnt thought about getting the insurance quote done as a means to influence the negotiations with Boras
also CC..didnt Brian just say that they don’t usually disclose this kind of information? Wouldn’t it then make sense that you or anyone else hadn’t ever heard of it happening?
I mean i havent ever heard of it happening either, but i guess it isnt disclosed very often so i dont see why hearing about it ever that is a decider in it’s practicality or possibility of happening
Still…i am happy to hear about this insurance information very intriguing….i kind of wish teams would disclose it more often
also…as for Lynn (i dont think i said anything about retaining him…whether i think it is good or not isnt being discussed)
the point wasn’t that Lynn came back and was superstar…the point is that he can back and pitched well…i could care less about the sabermetrics concerning him or anyone else…it had to do with coming back after TJ surgery and pitching meaningful and helpful innings in his role… which is why i brought it up…as his return AND Duke…and others throughout the league would seem to prove that players come back from TJ and can contribute in meaningful way…and if we could get a healthy Rosy for Dept/Oct. plus maybe playoffs that is worth the 6-8mil for next year OR a 2-3 yr contract lower with dollar amount per year would command IMO…mud assumed he woudnt be able to come back and be able to contribute…Lynn and duke…and lots others seems to prove otherwise
plus he was a target at the trade deadline so people were interested and he was healthy all year…and he will undoubtedly get a good contract this offseason…will it be super high? probably not because of the sabermetrics, but we know by now team dont make all their decision based on sabermetrics so i’d guess a lot else goes into the equation…
as for Lynn’s contract…hmmm…i lean toward Leake-ish… he will get a lot of deals at 4 yrs….but he will end up taking a 5-6yr deal from someone a bit more desperate, who can be more wasteful with cash, or someone high on him…5yrs 90-100mil front loaded…to the Cubs
Jager, I think CC’s point was a timing one. Until the contract amount is known, getting a policy written to cover it would seemingly not be possible. Getting an estimate in advance could be.
Jag, they usually dont disclose that info on specific players. They have talked from time to time in generalities. Some teams have. Other execs have talke$ anonymously how it works. In general, it doesn’t make sense anyway.
ahhh…i see now Brian…that makes a lot more sense…
my apologies CC…i did not read your comment right
and yeah…getting an estimate is maybe more the direction it seems i was thinking
First Jager you “couldn’t” care less, second he pitched ok. At the end of the season he failed miserable when it counted.
Phamfoolery facts
It took Pham his age 29 season to produce a good season.He had 2 previous poor partial seasons including 2016 when he struck out at a 40% rate even worse than the current target of blame(Grichuk).Pham fans say he will get better at age 30 in spite of vision issues and a lengthy injury history.Pham did have a good season but thinking he will duplicate or surpass that is just plain foolish.I think Pham is a decent player and can be useful.Counting on him to be a big impact guy is just taking a chance.As for Ozuna being a costlier upgrade I say go for it.Ozuna has had 4.5 MLB seasoni and has been productive 3.5 of them.He has been a starter since age 23.He should still be trending upward towards his peak and his cost might be 8 million or more in 2018 and more in 2019 and he will be 29 heading into Free agency after 2019.Why not trade for a guy who can give you 2 years production at reasonable cost and has a history of production?seriously? grammar attack?
it’s an idiom…where logic doesnt have to be at the forefront… beyond that…i was meaning it sarcastically
https://www.dictionary.com/e/could-care-less/forum speak for me is more conversational….and thus understanding the point is the focus…and to correct my “mistake” means you know the meaning well enough the meaning right? so my communication worked….i mean i also misspelled a lot in that post and used lots of incorrect grammar but THAT one you point out? really?
also…maybe i meant I actually COULD care a little bit less…
NJ…oh…and ok…back to the only part of your post that wasnt a personal attack and the only really acceptable part of your post as we are supposed to talk baseball here NOT grammar…
he was basically as good as he was before his injury,,he just gave up more HR balls…
and he isnt the first or only SP this year or any other year that fades a bit at the end…especially given he pitched the whole year and was healthy…AND was coming back from TJ…again Lynn didnt fall off a cliff in terms of production..more HRs is a bit bothersome but everything else lined up pretty well.. AND he pitched the whole year…even if he faded a bit…
this all is about Rosy coming back for the end of the year run next year and whether that can be expected or not…most of the time the guys come back and pitch well..Lynn did…and if his stats are low a bit over the year…he definitely got worse at the end…but we dont nor expect Rosy to be in all year…he would be two months max…
Lynn was pretty impressive through June outside of 3-4 poor performances (i use this because we’d get the first couple months not the end of the year with a returning from injury player)…and that is out of 16…so you are talking about a good outing 75% of the time for Lynn in the first months coming back from TJ
https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/player/lance-lynn/game-log/pitchingIf we got 75% good outings from Rosy for the last 2.5 months of the year…that’d be pretty good if we are looking at how good Rosy can be… and he could definitely be a big factor for a playoff push….non-tendering him is a possibility…but we dont have a lot of options and have invested a lot already in him and to a degree know what he can give when healthy…it could be a sunken cost to give him a contract even for just a few hopeful months and he doesnt make it back or is bad…but he knows he probably needs to come back and impress to get a contract whether from us or someone else…and he has an opportunity in StL to be THE guy if he comes back strong because of his pedigree…no one else is going to sign him to closer money or give him a closer gig going into 2019 unless he shows it…
but whatever…i think a Rosy 2yr deal to me is a risk…but a risk worth taking…a way to potentially even save a few bucks if we can get him back to what he showed even this year…and if he does what he wants and is good then we’d be potentially all in for giving him a premiere closer role with a new contract after that…OR he coudl use that 1.25 season we pay him for to impress for a bigger contract at still a very young age
dont agree…that’s fine…but at least debate what i am actually talking about…or don’t…do whatever you want
CC…i feel like Ozuna had a few rough years but interesting
so are you just sayin’ you’d not be interested in Ozuna?
Interested but do you really want to bank your playoff chances on one good year? The price would have to be good.
Ozuna was brought up to the majors way too early though. He went from high-A in 2012 to the majors in 2013 after only 47 AA PAs at age 22. Since then, he’s improved both his BB-rate and his ISO each year as well. I think his batting average will come down with his BABIP, but his power is likely sustainable.
I do want to add that I liked Ozuna a lot heading into 2017, but I don’t want to pick him up now. I’d rather they shoot higher. If we pick up an elite infielder though, I’d like to just stay with Piscotty in RF with Grichuk and Martinez as the 4th and 5th OFers.
A gap factoid to chew on. The two World Series teams each have six offensive players who amassed more than 3 fWAR each this season. The Cardinals had one.
Read a quick blurb by a sportswriter who thinks Marlins will trade Yelich instead of Ozuna because Ozuna is very active in the community and extremely popular with the fans.FWIW could be Marlins want to keep a fan favorite to give the fans a bone instead of thinking it’s a total rebuild.
I would rather have Yelich than Ozuna. Yelich is more athletic and appears to still be ascending in his production whereas I fear that Ozuna may have plateaued.
Lot of good stuff over at Viva El Birdos today. VEB makes the argument the Cardinals should wait one more year until making a huge aggressive splash since we aren’t likely to catch the Cubs in 2018 anyway. They recommend trading for Andrelton Simmons (which I have been in support of for months) and signing Lorenzo Cain.
While neither would be a middle of the order bat, the two massive defensive upgrades, along with beefing up the bullpen should put us squarely in place for a wild card and still have enough resources to make a bigger splash next offseason.
Brian Walton
A gap factoid to chew on. The two World Series teams each have six offensive players who amassed more than 3 fWAR each this season. The Cardinals had one.Fangraphs has DeJong at 3.0 WAR and Carpenter at 2.9. I realize you said more than, but that’s really close.
I don’t know who says it around here, but that VEB article doesn’t take into account the exponential aspect of WAR that I’ve come to believe in. I feel the same as someone else here that posted abut how a 5.0 WAR player is worth way more than double what a 2.5 WAR player is – For instance Donaldson vs. Gyorko.
If we are able to trade for a serious upgrade at 3B or SS or something, I’d love to get a guy like Cain. Some combination of Carpenter, Fowler, Pham, and Cain would be some serious table-setting.
Honestly, I think the Cubs end up trading Baez and Schwarber this year for a young TOR starter and then sign Cain to play LF. Then they can play Happ/Zobrist at 2B.
In 2016, Fowler and Zobrist put up .393 and .386 OBPs, while in 2017, the Cubs offense stalled with no one to hit in front of Bryant and Rizzo.
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