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Who do the mock drafts have us taking? I would have us taking the best arm available, preferably Flukey, if available. Some mocks have him falling to us.
BA says hitters, hitters, hitters are the only thing they are hearing to the Cardinals at 13.
Fangraphs mocked Grindlinger to the Cards, BA has Helfrick, Sports Illustrated has Tryler Bell, MLB Prospect pipeline last week had Bell as well
Brian and Kyle were mentioning that perhaps the Cards would go with prep bats this draft since the CBA could eliminate HS prospects starting next year. I would be ok with that over going with a college catcher or shortstop, for sure.
I would be ok with that over going with a college catcher or shortstop, for sure.
The statistics say you are far better off drafting college players…
The statistics say you are far better off drafting college players…
Of our current starting contingent, Herrera was an international sign (basically a HSer), Winn, Jordan and Walker were high schoolers, Crooks, Burly, JJ, Church and Nootbaar were college guys. From the starting staff, May and Liberatore were high school guys and Leahy, McGreevy and Pallante were college guys. So there are slightly more starting caliber players from the college ranks than preps, but it’s not that big a difference.
I’m sure the stats are that college guys provide more overall value. That’s basically why the Cards have done pretty well in the draft over the years despite not great draft slots…they are good at finding those averageish MLB guys at value. I’d just be more willing to take the risk to find a star in this draft if there won’t be HS guys going forward, especially if the alternative is drafting a guy at a position I feel pretty solid about for the foreseeable future.
I dont believe in drafting for hope, never have. Drafting is where a analytics and such should reign supreme. Far more valuable and useful in drafting than looking at player stats to determine team value and direction. But thats just me.
In fairness to Pallante he didn’t pitch that badly. He never actually caved. He hung his knuckle curve for a 3 run HR. But the rest of the scoring happened because everything the Brewers hit found a place to snake through the infield or drop just out of reach in the outfield.
Here is my draft board for the first 20 picks. No way things go this way, but just the ranking of how much I like certain guys.
Tier 1
1. Roch Cholowsky – SS – College
Take Masyn Winns glove (minus the arm) and then throw on + power projection with great swing decisions and the ability to hit for a good average. By far my favorite player in the class and I think this guy will be a star.Tier 2
2. Grady Emerson – SS – HS
3. Vahn Lackey – C – College
4. Drew Burress – CF – College
These guys are all likely big league starters with more upside in the tank and combine good hit and power along with the ability to play up the middle spots. I have Burress very high. He is undersized, but this guy can play and he hits the ball hard. Harder thanmost in the class despite the size and he lifts the ball too instead of smashing it into the ground.Tier 3
5. Eric Booth – CF – HS
6. Jackson Flora – RHP – College
7. AJ Gracia – CF – College
8. Tyler Spangler – SS – HS
9. Landon Thome – SS – HS
I see some risk in all of these guys, but all of them have upside that allow them to be All Stars if they can put it together. Gracia I feel has untapped power potential with that big frame and will improve over time and he gets really good reads so CF is a possibility for him. Spangler and Thome are two of the more impressive HS guys who both have good power projection while also having good hitting fundamentals with good swing decisions; neither likely stay at SS, but they have the hitting tools to be impact bats. Despite being HS guys I think they are less risky than many of the college players with the quality of their bat control and swing decisions without major holes in their game.Tier 4
10. Tyler Bell – SS – College
11. Christopher Hacopian – 2B – College
12. Ace Reese – 3B – College
These guys all have flaws, but they can be big league regulars albeit average or slightly below averageTier 5
13. Bo Lawrence – 3B – HS
14. Jacob Lombard – SS – HS
15. Sawyer Strosnider – RF – College
16. Cole Carlon – LHP – College
17. Hunter Dietz – LHP – College
18. Gio Rojas – LHP – HS
19. Zion Rose – CF – College
20. Cameron Flukey – RHP – College
These guys all have upside and some like Lombard heaps of it, but they all are quite high risk and are more rough around the edges. In general I really do not like this college pitching group.Here’s how we rank in ERA for our minor league teams:
Memphis is 6th out of 20 teams.
Springfield 8th out of 10.
Peoria is 10th out of 12 teams.
Palm Beach 7th out f 10.
FCL 9th of 15.
DSL 42 of 51.I believe we have some injuries and young arms. But I believe we’ve got to prioritize pitching. If a position player falls we should take him obviously. And our relied pitching is really thin. I understand that we will have failed starters who could excel in the pen, but as of now with Gastelum added, and Rajcic injured our only option near the majors is Rincon.
My point is, you should only be drafting HS players if you have a 90+% conviction they are going to be superstars. Otherwise, the statistics tell you to draft college players.
It is amazing to me how a sport so heavily based on statistics ignores statistics against it’s own self interest.
Every other major sport the draft class can have an immediate impact – with baseball you are drafting for 3-4 years out usually. It’s too bad the ping pong balls screwed the Cardinals down to 13th. You really need a top 5 pick or so to think the player can reach the bigs in two years.
The truth is that Bloom may not even be around by the time this year’s draft matures…
27, you don’t draft on need and you draft for the best player available. The pitchers at the top of this class aren’t great outside of Flora and no way he makes it to 13. I also really don’t want a C but part of that is Helfrick is a guy generally mocked around 13 and I don’t like players with 30 hit tool (Gorman).
My point is, you should only be drafting HS players if you have a 90+% conviction they are going to be superstars. Otherwise, the statistics tell you to draft college players.
I understand your point and that you are right that if accumulating value is the goal, then the Cards should only draft college players this draft. My point is that rather than draft guys at positions I’m not very excited about from the college ranks (Helfrick and Bell are the two I’m thinking of in specific), I would rather go with HS players (which may be less than ideal, but speaks to how even less ideal I think drafting a college C or SS would be).
I’ll also add this piece of data…of the Fangraphs top 30 position WAR right now, 10 are HS draftees, 14 are international signees and 6 came through the college ranks. On the pitching side, the top 30 consist of 6 HS draftees, 4 international signees and 20 college draftees. So…draft college arms and take a more measured approach to bats? One year’s data would seem to suggest it.
I agree that drafting a catcher doesn’t seem like a good idea but I admit that I am biased towards Helfrick so if we did draft him I wouldn’t object too loudly.
The Cardinals are drafting to pay the rent. They have no business taking extra risk in the first round or top few rounds hoping for a jackpot. That is for systems that are loaded.
The Athletic is running an article with details for MLB's All-Star Week activities. Sadly, the Draft is not even mentioned. And they're not alone in downplaying it. Rounds 1-4 are Saturday at noon CT. Rounds 5-20 are Sunday at 10:30 a.m. CT.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 10, 2026
Sad that baseball drafts arent viewed like other sports drafts but given that games like football and basketball are basically pick up n play sports i understand. I dont care about all star week, with interleague play we have all star week all the time. I will pay attention to the draft as much as i can.
The Cardinals are drafting to pay the rent. They have no business taking extra risk in the first round or top few rounds hoping for a jackpot. That is for systems that are loaded.
You could also make the argument that for a small market team like the Cards (get used to it), the draft and international market are their only ways to collect a star level talent. On some level, that’s going to lead to a team maybe taking a bigger swing at a player who could turn up stars. Teams that have lots of money can afford to play it safe in the draft and collect 2 WAR type players, knowing they can buy the type of All Star/MVP level guys that you need a bunch of to win a title.
There is Nothing sad about the Cardinals getting 7 picks on the 1st day. Some of you are just sad people.
If these high school players were future stars of the calibre of what they are beling bet on, it would already show and they wouldnt sputter out. Maybe there needs to be people with the talent to know what talent is in these levels of scouting. I still think drafting high school players for that one lucky draw is kind of like buying a mystery box hoping honus wagners rookie card is in there.
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