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Hey menk – I will answer for me. But I do think this is a great topic for Brian and Kyle.
I look at consistency (positive consistent production) over months of time as number one and showing the ability to completely dominate at a level (even if only for a game or two here and there) as my 2nd of two key traits. I keep those two in mind and weigh them. For me, Wetherholt coming into the season was going to be successful. I said that multiple times here. He had met both criteria hands down. I was also fairly confident about Gastellum and Blaze Jordan although I could be wrong on either. I was less sure about Crooks as he didn’t fully meet either of my criteria but was somewhat close on both. And for guys like Torres, he’s never really met my 2nd condition where he completely dominates anything so I would have expected him to struggle. This is why I’m skeptical about Dobbins, Mautz, Rincon, and Hansen, but fairly high on Baez and Matthews. Just my opinion though.
As we approach the trade deadline, I believe there are 11 possible Cardinals players who could reasonably be traded for various reasons. However, only 2 of them are super likely to go. Here are my thoughts:
Romero (95% chance) – Romero is a relatively effective lefty reliever, a commodity that is often desired at the deadline in which teams are willing to overpay for. He’s also in the final year of his deal. And, he’s replaceable with either Mautz or Hansen (or potentially someone we trade for). Consider these to be Romero’s final days as a Cardinal.
May (80% chance) – The only reason not to trade May is if you strongly believe in the Cardinals’ playoff odds against the Brewers, Dodgers, and Braves. May is in the final year of his contract and has proven to be a solid #2 starter about 75% of his outings (with some of those looking like a #1). Therefore, he’s a valuable trade asset and I don’t think Bloom will let that opportunity escape us.
Bruihl (50%) – Basically see what I put for Romero only he’s a little less effective. The two reasons his odds aren’t higher is that because he’s a little less effective, his value will be fairly low and the fact that the Cardinals have limited lefty reliever replacement options. They would almost need to get a left hander back in one of these deals (ala John King equivalent like they did in ’23) in order to trade Bruihl.
O’Brien (40%) – O’Brien is the exact kind of player that every single team will be looking for at the trade deadline. Closer experience. Years of control. Strikeout ability. The way the deadline works, teams may fight over him and shoot his value well over what he might normally be worth. If that happens, I can see Bloom pulling the trigger and getting the assets. The downside is the loss of a closer, which we don’t otherwise have as a replacement part. It also severely hampers our playoff odds.
Nootbaar (40%) – Nootbaar has one year of control remaining after this season. He’s come back fairly strong from his injury and will likely see some teams wanting to trade for him. The Cardinals have a few viable players for LF in Torres and Velasquez plus the option of bringing up Josh Baez. I still think there’s a good chance the Cardinals will want to see Nootbaar play through the end of the season and then consider trading him in the offseason, but if the deal is right, they should and will trade him now.
Velasquez (25%) – Teams are often looking for a bench bat with some thump, like when we added Tommy Pham. Velasquez fits that description. He has some years of control but if someone is willing to overpay for him, there’s really no reason not to trade him away.
Stanek (20%) – These odds would probably be higher if Stanek was more consistent. Still, he’s a power bullpen arm who can get strikeouts so someone may be willing to give us something decent for him. Plus, other than a mildly expensive option year, he’s not signed for next season.
Now we get into the real low odds section, but I’m saying there’s a chance:
Fermin (15%) – Fermin has proven to be a capable bench bat. He’s nearing arbitration. The Cardinals don’t really need him and if a team is willing to give something up for him, he could be traded.
Herrera (15%) – I know. Most of you don’t like this one. But I said this at the end of last season when he was much hotter and I thought they maybe should have traded him then. Herrera just isn’t a catcher because he can’t throw runners out. He clogs up the DH spot. He’s a good hitter, but maybe not as great a hitter as some thought he might suddenly be. Plus we already have too many catchers on the team. Herrera could bring back a nice haul of players. Probably not what we could have gotten last offseason, but still a good amount. It’s worth exploring.
Crooks (10%) – Crooks has lots of years of control and wouldn’t even be listed here if we didn’t already have Leo Bernal in the wings. Bernal is having a very good season at Memphis and could probably be called up to replace Crooks and we wouldn’t lose much of a beat. The issue here is that Crooks hasn’t done anything to increase his value at the MLB level so I’m not sure we would get the kind of deal we might want to get, which is why I gave this one very low odds.
Pallante (10%) – Teams need starting pitchers. You see all the injuries. Pallante has proven himself to be solid starter. He’s also going to be Arbitration 2 eligible next season, which starts to make him a little more expensive. I gave this one very low odds though because if May is traded, it would be hard to lose a second starter. That means 2 of Matthews, Dobbins, and Mautz end up in the big league rotation with almost no one in reserve.
Willie, my bet would be the tech geeks cost more on average than the experienced scouts but I don’t know for sure. I’m pretty certain it’s not about saving costs. It’s about getting better performance. And they are doing just that. That’s why everyone has started doing it to some degree. Hitters swing harder and quicker than they ever have. Pitchers consistently pitch harder and with far more movement than they ever have. The game has changed for better or worse. Some things are still very much the same. But much is different.
Slightly surprised by Rivas but I think Trey Richardson’s recent climb has pushed aside Rivas as the super emergency depth SS guy. Rivas was just never able to consistently hit or get on base. At best, he was a fringe utility prospect.
Koperniak lost his luster the past 2 seasons and it is pretty clear Savacool just isn’t any good at the upper levels. I’m not as surprised by these two. Savacool never got into my top 50 list. Koperniak certainly did at one point.
I don’t typically care one iota about the home run derby or All-Star game but watching the theatrics of Walker’s night play out given all the pains and struggles he has gone through was warming to my heart. Good for him personally. Now let’s hope he can continue thumping baseballs with regularity when the season continues.
Willie – there is no reason to bring science into the discussion about how large the world is. We should just rely on the sailors who have sailed around it to tell us.
Seriously, I realize how science seems to take some of the “game” out of the game. There’s a really good reason every team uses it though. It is just a better way to measure talent. You can absolutely screw it up. Data can always take you down the wrong path if you aren’t looking at it in the right way or collecting enough of it. But if you do a good job of collecting and analyzing it, it’s going to bring far better results than the qualitative analysis of several scouts sitting around a table giving their own projections. Just as in my world example above, science can tell you exactly how big the world is even if that scientist could never dream of having the skill or will to sail around it. That doesn’t make either the scientist or sailor better or worse than the other. It just means if they each harness their talents together, they can get a better result in the end. That’s what advanced analytics is trying to bring to the game of baseball and teams that do it well win more and make more money.
I think it comes down to risk/reward for O’Brien. If someone else values him very highly (higher than us), trade him because relievers have a lot of risk and relievers over 31 have even more. But don’t trade him just to get anything we can get – he’s not like Romero where you might as well trade him given his contract will be up.
Gscottar – I disagree on Gray. It’s hard to trade him again (I’m sure you meant May!). You are probably right on the rest. Nootbaar will take a strong offer though. Otherwise, they will keep him at least until the offseason.
I like the Kuhns pick as well Mud. Lots to build on there.
Condon probably struggles to hit for a bit after Low A as they work on his swing. Perhaps they can make him into a great player in 4 years or so.
27 – Shuster started in place of Mautz because it is likely Mautz gets called up to start a big league game soon. To replace Mautz, they decided no one was ready so they called up Savacool as a placeholder. Guys that are part of or who at least could be part of the long term plan if they perform don’t get called up until they are ready.
Given that last night’s game got postponed, they may not need to call up Mautz now – at least not yet – so it may have all been for naught but better to be safe just in case.
Having more teams reach the playoffs provides more excitement for fans even if it does water down what good looks like. I personally preferred either the 1 or 2 wild card approach (4 or 5 teams getting in from each league), but I fully understand why it is better for probably both the owners and the players to maximize the number of teams who get in.
Bling – Thanks for generating a good laugh after I read your last comment!
I had high hopes too. He has a good repertoire of pitches. He just seems to break down in big moments and has never really solidified control to where he needs it. Tonight he got hurt by multiple middle middle pitches.
Brian, at the time, I had them bringing up Gastellum for Rajcic and losing Pozo off the 40-man. Gastellum had a day off the day prior so he was relatively fresh. It doesn’t matter now.
I’m not even sure Soriano was available. They had Svanson, Graceffo, or Bruihl and as Bling said, the other 2 were more for long relief in extras. Svanson was really the only choice Ollie had available to him.
IMO, and I said this 2 days ago before that game, they should have swapped in a fresh arm for Rajcic and used that arm in the game that night to save someone for last night’s game. It was the disaster start Sunday that got us in this mess. Fortunately, Pallante and Leahy both pitched a decent amount of innings to help pull us out. Not quite there yet. We need a good long start tonight.
I guess it was too many runs to get back as the D-backs sub out their closer for a flame-throwing lefty who strikes out Wetherholt swinging.
Gorman went 0 for 4 with 4 strikeouts at Memphis tonight. I didn’t watch so not sure what to say about his swing adjustments.
Cardinals cut it to 4-3 as Crooks singles home Burleson. It’s now up to JJ with 2 outs and Crooks on first.
Nootbaar, Fermin, and Burleson manage to erase the shutout. Need 4 more here so we don’t have to go to the pen.
This top of the inning is taking forever. Our pitchers refuse to throw consistent strikes and Arizona has done a good job fouling off pitches when they do.
Just announced that was our 54th pitch of the inning. And number 55 leads to a walk to load the bases. Graceffo, throw f’n strikes.
And a wild pitch makes it 4-0.
Svanson with 9000 pitches this inning. Ollie comes out to pick up his arm after he secured only 1 out. Not his fault Walker lost a routine fly ball in the lights. However, Svanson could not locate pitches. That was a problem.
