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The heavy rain has begun. Looking now like it may be 8:30 or later before we get underway unless they start in the light rain.
It looks to me like the rain will last until around 8 pm. Long night of hanging around for me. They haven’t actually covered the field yet – just the mound.
Rain delay upcoming according to the usher in the netherworld up here. Not sure how long it will be.
I’m catching the game tonight from Busch Stadium although my wife and I chose the cheap seats tonight so you folks will have a far better view of the action. My goal is simply to try to inspire some more offense than the one inning we’ve had in the past couple weeks. Wish me luck! 96 degrees, but at least the air is blowing a little way up here!
I am expecting to see a bullpen of O’Brien, Graceffo, Gastellum, Mautz, Fernandez, Hjerpe, Soriano, and Winquest in a week. I could see Dobbins in one of those spots if Matthews becomes the fifth starter or O’Brien is traded.
Maybe not Hjerpe if they aren’t able to trade Bruihl.
They have only 7 pitchers in their pen because they chose to carry 6 starters. Graceffo threw 2 innings yesterday so he wasn’t available and apparently O’Brien was sick. That left 5. Gastellum, Stanek, and Soriano had already been used. The choice was either extend Soriano to a second inning (probably the better choice) or use the fresh Svanson. More right handers were coming up so Bruihl wasn’t a good choice. Svanson does have strikeout ability which is good in a runner on second situation but he also has been very hittable this season.
Marmol hasn’t had the bullpen pieces to rely on this season like he had the past two. It’s hard to try to manage what he does have effectively, especially when you have to think about who will be available tomorrow.
BB – I remember the post but doubt I could ever find it again. You said something like there was no reason to believe the Cardinals would ever develop a starter internally with their current group of prospects given that their track record of doing so was so bad in the past and Brian and I argued that they had a far better chance of doing so now because of the talented arms they had in the system versus what they had prior. Basically, from 2021-2024, there were so few arms to try to build up.
It probably has helped having the new development team in place as they seem to have helped Leahy for sure and probably have helped Pallante, Liberatore, and McGreevey.
Bling – When I said I was the low person on Hence the past few seasons, I apologize for bypassing you. I remember you saying he wouldn’t be in your top 100. So yes, you were definitely the lowest rater! Then again, you also declared there was zero chance the Cardinals would develop a single starting pitcher internally and 2 years later we have 4 of 5 and maybe soon to be 5 of 5. I often dismiss your comments like both of these as hyperbole.
Nootbaar wasn’t a good CFer in ‘23. My guess is he’s only considered an occasional fill-in option. It’s really just Church or Scott and neither seems to be able to hit.
Paul – They got Dobbins, Fajardo, and Aita for him. I have Fajardo as our number 3 best pitching prospect – he’s at least top 5. Aita has had a good season as a starter as well, but probably projects as an up and down starter or reliever long term. Dobbins is the team’s current up and down starter. They also got the Red Sox to take most of Contreras’ remaining salary. A pretty fair deal all around.
KCB – I’ve been the low man on Hence for 3 seasons now. I actually wanted him traded away when he was at peak value in ‘23. I have thought and still think he could end up as a solid bullpen option but it’s getting a bit more dicey on that happening. I’m ok with keeping him with that sole focus in mind.
If we didn’t have a hole at 3B, I’d probably try to trade Gorman for anything we can get just to clear a roster spot. So to do that, we need to trade for some kind of third base option.
We could also use a true CF option because again, no one is coming up soon unless they can fix Victor Scott. Maybe we can get a decent AAA guy with some promise in a trade?
We have a problem right now with our roster in that 3 positions are being held by guys who we are just hoping they find a way to regain some promise. That’s Hence, Gorman, and Scott. They’ve all lost nearly all of their once previous trade value so now it’s just down to hoping something suddenly clicks but the results have been very rough at AAA.
With Scott, he’s young enough still. Plus, the team doesn’t have another real CF option to backup Church so I think you just hope you can fix his swing.
With Gorman and Hence, I have no idea what to do. It’s a problem and not one with a good solution.
To me, Blaze Jordan is that right-handed bat that can platoon some with Burly, DH some, and play a little 3B. However, since we don’t have a real third baseman, he’s playing there regularly. That seems to be the player we should be looking for in a trade – an up and coming third baseman unless they think Jesus Baez will be ready by sometime next season.
Ok. I will play. You will notice a few huge differences in some guys I either like much better than others and at least 2 that I don’t. I didn’t list any current mlb roster guys other than Rajcic because they all should be about out of rookie eligibility.
Raniel Rodriguez
Matthews
Franklin
Josh Baez
Fajardo
Doyle
Bernal
Hjerpe
Cijntje
CondonKuhns
Gurevitch
Peete
Jesus Baez
Maniscalso
Molina
Mautz
Henderson
Roby
MitchellGastellum
Dos Santos
Aita
Ferraro
Kennedy
Padilla
Brayden Davis
C Davis
Lin
Deniel OrtizMiguel Hernandez
Randall
Cho
Williamson
Dohm
Odle
Graham
Winquest
Rincon
J FloresPena
Clarke
Prieto
E Luna
Brandt Thompson
Campos
Ledbetter
Richardson
Rajcic
HoneymanSince I did the 21 pitchers, here are the hitters acquired via trade since the ’23 deadline:
Sammy Hernandez – Solid numbers but has essentially become a backup catcher in an organization full of catching prospects.
Thomas Saggese – Has been an up and down guy between Memphis & St. Louis. Mostly utility depth at this point.
Cesar Prieto – Aside from a few at bats in the MLB, he’s been almost solely at Memphis for a few years now. Defense has improved some, but his calling card is still a good bat.
Tommy Pham – We basically got one huge home run moment in his first at bat and then nothing else.
Jesus Baez – Has hit well and been promoted to Springfield and hit well again.
Blaze Jordan – Hit a ton at Memphis and now trying to make it in the big leagues.
Tai Peete – Hit well and then got hurt. Then came back for like one game and got hurt again. I think he’s about to start another rehab.
Colton Ledbetter – Started the first couple months hitting about as bad as one can hit, but has been mostly good since.
Brayden Smith – Started off slow after the trade, but has really come on lately and may find himself on a prospect list soon if he keeps it up.That’s 9 total position players compared to 21 pitchers. It’s actually more position players than I originally thought. This group has had more success than the pitching group especially because of Baez/Jordan/Peete making up 1/3 of this group and all performing well.
Pitchers acquired via trade since the 2023 deadline:
Matt Svanson – MLB
Sem Robberse – Coming off injury on rehab, but has mostly struggled in recent past.
Adam Kloffenstein – Released last season.
Tekoah Roby – On the IL until at least September.
John King – Contracted ended last season.
Zach Showalter – Released this season.
Eric Fedde – Traded away for cash last season.
Shawn Armstrong – Released 2 seasons ago soon after being acquired.
Nate Dohm – Struggled mightily this season, but lots better as of late.
Frank Ellisalt – Has been on the IL all season.
Skylar Hales – Has mostly struggled out of the pen at Memphis.
Mason Molina – Finally, a pitcher in this list who has had a very positive season.
Hunter Dobbins – Has been up and down between Memphis and St. Louis. Average results at Memphis.
Yhoiker Fajardo – Another success. He’s pitched really well and might be a top 3 pitcher in the organization. Certainly top 5.
Blake Aita – Average results for a few months followed by far more success lately.
Jack Martinez – Got promoted and then has been hit hard since.
Richard Fitts – Looked good very early on but out for the year on the IL.
Brandon Clarke – Just made his first appearance off the IL hitting 103 on the gun. Honestly, I think that was pretty stupid of him and that is part of the reason I don’t see him staying healthy. But maybe.
Patrick Galle – He looked incredible early and then got promoted and has been a disaster since.
Jurrangelo Cijntje – Has been mostly good. Got beat up last night in his first Memphis start though.
George Soriano – In the Majors and has been relatively successful.I told you there were a lot of guys they’ve added. This doesn’t even count the drafts or Minor League signings. You would think we would be seeing better results overall, but in general, they have so far been worse year over year.
After acquiring so many pitchers in trades and bringing in a development staff to coach them up, our Minor league pitching performance is quite concerning. That’s not the case on the offensive side where oddly enough the team really didn’t acquire much of anyone via trade aside from Jesus Baez and part of a season this year of Blaze Jordan. If we want the MLB team to get better over the long haul, then we really need to see some of those results show up in the Minors. In fairness, many of our prospect pitchers started the season on the IL with many of them coming back in the past 30 or so days. That may change how this looks by season’s end, but right now, it isn’t pretty.
By ERA, here is the team’s position in their respective leagues:
Memphis: 9 of 20
Springfield: 8 of 10
Peoria: 10 of 12
Palm Beach 7 of 10
FCL: 8 of 15
DSL: 44 of 51As you can see, the DSL team has been truly disastrous on the pitching side. I was actually surprised there were any teams that were worse. Their ERA is 7.58 collectively. Ugh.
On the hitting side, things are much rosier:
Memphis: 6 of 20
Springfield: 5 of 10
Peoria: 4 of 12
Palm Beach: 3 of 10
FCL: 13 of 15
DSL: 7 of 51The hitting side is more “good” than “great”, but we’ll take it.
Any other thoughts on why the pitching has been subpar? I know our starters have been significantly better than our relievers.
LA – I understand you don’t believe it. As I tried to explain before, it’s because he didn’t have a path to the Majors early in the season. Therefore, he took the time to tinker with his pitches which led to lots of walks, but helped him hone in the movement of those pitches. It was never the case that he suddenly became wild and couldn’t control his pitches. He had the ability to turn all that back on. He was just searching for better, more effective versions of his pitches that would help him achieve better long-term results rather than short term gains of just looking good. Now that things have changed and he has a legitimate shot of being called up, he is turning it on.
Either I’m a really lucky guesser who just happened to pick the perfect moment to post some crazy theory or I was right all along. The truth is a little in between. I watch Quinn pitch and often listen to his comments and I made my best inferences from that.
You are definitely not the only one Albert. I posted about how good I think Matthews really is when everyone got down on him and right before his current run of successful starts. I was astounded that people were starting to rate him in the teens or even as our 20th best prospect. Since then, he’s rattled off 5 or 6 great starts in a row. I absolutely think he’s ready. And, I think he might even be our best starter in the Majors today – depending on which version of Dustin May shows up.
