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Of course context matters. Duh.
However… Hosmer was a big name prospect. There is virtually nothing not known about him.
Pham had his vision corrected. Of course that needs to be taken into account.
leone learned a cutter. Of course that needs to be taken into account.
Fowler? Average player, bad defensively who will have to move to a harder comparison position and thus wont have as much value. Stupid signing.
Hosmer? Would need to average 4 WAR to justify 5 years at 18 million.
Number of years he has done that? One. In his walk year. Think about that a second and reassess because he plays one of the hardest comparative positions and thus will have to pretty much play above what he has played previously in major ways to justify that contract.
Context matters. Duh. But trying to justify a bad contract with no upside by comparing people with extenuating circumstances (which hosmer does NOT have) isnt helping a case.
What do I want to do? What any adult learns to do.
You can’t win the lottery if you don’t buy a ticket. You cant get good players if youre not willing to pay the price.
… And sometimes you will lose. That’s the other reality of being an adult. But if you won’t even try you’ve already lost.
Duh, be opportunistic. But you also need the stones to make a real deal where you lose majorly on talent and years of control (see Verlander to houston). And if you are smart you do it NOW, not in midseason.
I want management to grow a pair and pay for players that will actually make a difference. Because hosmer won’t.
You have to pay to play unless you want to wait fifteen years for the farm to restock enough studs to compete.
And if there is no player of that stature on the market then you put up reyes, weaver, and flaherty and MAKE one.
This organization has stagnated because it refuses to break tendencies and go after real difference makers.
… Career WAR average per year shows long term downside. It takes into account injuries, bad years and everyday effort.
It punishes mediocrity.
You can have up seasons and down seasons. I get that. But your WAR average is pretty much who you are.
Yes you can remove things like september callups etc. Im good with that. But when a guy produces like an average player for the better part of a decade…
Well, he is average. Mediocre. Whatever word you want to use.
The ONLY argument pro hosmer that I see is that he is entering his prime years and should produce a bit more.
Guess what? 3 WAR per year is still not worth 18 million per year or more for 5+ years.
He isnt in the same time zone of being a good signing.
Cherry picking?
An average big league starter (give or take) gives 2 WAR.
Im saying between two top 100 players we can get an average guy.
Sure it might not happen but I am hardly coming close to asking for the moon here. Seems reasonable at worst.
Here’s some easy obvious math to illustrate :
Fowler + hosmer = 17+18 (estimating) = 35 = 4 WAR (4 extra wins over a replacement player per year)
Bader/O’Neill + carpenter does that for 25 milion less
Machado (Orioles) = 35 million, maybe 40 = 5 WAR and you can put voit at 1b and conservatively get 1.5-2 and bader/O’Neill in the outfield and get the same.
Point with this? Pay for superstars, not schmucks.
I’ll short version it for you :
If their WAR isnt on average in the 3.3-4 range or higher they are never worth a long term contract.
Ever.
And even then it takes some convincing.
There are players left that are doable. Darvish for one. Depends on the price.
Hosmer isn’t in the same time zone of being a good value.
Yes. I do.
Past performance and future returns and all that.
Fowler career average WAR : 2.2
Hosmer : 2.0You’re buying another career year and an average player.
I dont doubt the sentiment.
If I remember the math correctly, we’ve spent huge parts of the last couple decades in the lower half of prospect lists while spending most of the time in the playoffs (and overall in the top 5 of WAR produced).
There is sentiment and reality.
Baseball america is specifically ridiculously cub centric.
Remember corey patterson the #1 prospect in baseball? Lol
I think it has been fairly well demonstrated that prospect lists hate the cards.
At times I get really frustrated. Right now I’m just shrugging. It is as predictable as the sunrise.
Well, that and we’ve got a foot of snow with another foot coming.
I think I agree on darvish. 4 years/90 seems like a decent value signing.
He is walking the line a bit… But if he pulls out one year similar to 2013 we win.
Or three years like last year. Either one.
Trade for another hitter or a closer and we end up staring right at the cubs and not blinking. Good enough to make a run any way.
Nj315..
Hosmer is pretty much the definition of a Fowler and leake type signing. 2-4 WAR guys for tons of money better spent elsewhere.
Within the boundary of average is pretty much by definition mediocre.
An average of 115 or so ops+ for hosmer (by far the better of the two) is still within the bounds of average. He is “slightly above average” and still…
Mediocre. And pretty much average.
He’s a decent player. That’s it. You pay for decent players you get a decent team.
Decent teams are a dime a dozen.
Pads for the win… 🙂
That graphic, for all my quirks and ranting (occasionally wrongly) is exactly why a slightly above average outfielder with a big contract is expendable.
Paying for WAR on the margin (free agents) means paying for mediocre is always stupid because you end up paying millions for an extra .5 WAR. It also means when you have viable replacements in your pipeline that you have to be proactive in clearing the way or you end up with untradeable contracts and players.
REGARDLESS … I realize we aren’t trading fowler no matter how wrong it is. But I think we could end up with more deals yet… Simply because of that graphic.
Our depth in pitching and outfielders is ridiculous.
It could very easily be something like O’Neill for a closer… And it doesnt have to be before the season starts necessarily.
The worst part of a pipeline that deep is that you are pretty much forced to be proactive. However if you are smart, you can make some nice moves to help.
This one helped.
Leone should help. A lot. That’s the single most offensive division in baseball and he put up an era under 3.
Closer? Maybe. But I’d be more comfortable with an established stud.
To be fair… Most people would. I’m willing to give him a shot. I would just feel more comfortable if I could see a slotted bullpen with defined roles.
Gordo needs to actually pay attention to the team that he is supposedly very familiar with… Because he has written commentary on them for years.
We’ve got three guys for sure, and up to six that would give us what grichuk did last year. At least three should give us more if we give them a shot. And that’s the point.
We get a very good pen arm and another 100 mph arm. For our fifth outfielder.
Repeat : our fifth outfielder.
And he said it himself… We’ve got more guys in the pipeline. MANY more.
You have to keep that pipeline from clogging or you end up with a very crappy situation.
It isn’t rocket science.
To be fair… We could have a line on an elite guy. Throw one of those in and our bullpen looks extremely solid in both depth and quality.
I agree in a sense.
That’s what your aaa club is used for… If you need an arm and have a good aaa club youve got several ready made middle relief arms at minimum.
Last I checked we’ve got arms coming out our nose at aaa and a very good team. Find a way to use them instead of limiting yourself to two pinch hitters per game.
It is insane roster management
Agreed.
All I have to say : if you need a pinch hitter in the 12th inning, you cant call to memphis for a hitter.
If someone cant pitch because his arm is tired, you can call another guy up before the game.
Stupid is the mild term. Extremely mild.
Didn’t see that sorry.
I can see 13 in the al… In the nl… All I will say is omfg… I dont have a rant in me this morning for how dumb that is. If the rosters went to 26 fine. They haven’t yet.
Im going by the assumption that the front office wont let matheny be stupid anymore (13 pitchers).
I didnt see any announcement thereof.. So if I missed it so be it.
And yeah, I’m counting to 13. Because sane managers in the national league where pinch hitting is necessary constantly don’t take 12.
He doesnt need to displace anybody imo…
Assume 13 pitchers (stupid but assume it because matheny isnt smart).
Carpenter
Dejong
Martinez
Garcia
Gyorko
WongMolina
KellyOzuna
Fowler
Bader
PhamThats twelve guys. Maybe I missed someone.
They SHOULD take 13 or 14. Imo valera bridges that gap because you can play him nearly anywhere.
Also, do you really think nobody is going to get hurt?
Maybe valera is just the insurance policy. Im betting given their depth theyll give him a shot. Otherwise there are better ways to use that 40-slot.
