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Another way of looking at the numbers (using Baseball Reference):
Fowler:
Age 24 – 1.7 WAR
Age 25 – 2.5 WAR
Age 26 – 2.8 WAR
Age 27 – 2.0 WAR
Avg WAR through age 27: 2.25
Age 28 – 1.8 WAR
Age 29 – 2.2 WAR
Age 30 – 4.2 WAR
Age 31 – 1.6 WAR
Avg WAR after age 27: 2.45Pham:
Age 24 – 0.0 WAR
Age 25 – 0.0 WAR
Age 26 – (-0.1) WAR
Age 27 – 1.5 WAR
Age 28 – (-0.1) WAR
Age 29 – 6.4 WAR
2017 was his first year with more than 200 plate appearances in a seasonCarpenter:
Age 24 – 0.0 WAR
Age 25 – (-0.2 WAR)
Age 26 – 1.1 WAR
Age 27 – 6.4 WAR
Avg WAR through age 27: 2.43
Age 28 – 2.9 WAR
Age 29 – 3.9 WAR
Age 30 – 3.4 WAR
Age 31 – 2.9 WAR
Avg WAR after age 27: 3.275Hosmer:
Age 24 – 0.8 WAR
Age 25 – 3.6 WAR
Age 26 – 1.0 WAR
Age 27 – 4.0 WAR
Avg WAR through age 27: 2.35Ozuna:
Age 24 – 0.4 WAR
Age 25 – 2.5 WAR
Age 26 – 5.8 WAR
Avg WAR through age 26: 2.9
Ozuna had a 4.5 WAR in his age 23 season which raises his 4 year average to 3.3.The point I am trying to make is that you have to look at each one of the players based on where they are in their careers. If you follow the overall trend in baseball based on their ages for the upcoming years, Ozuna and Hosmer should see an increase in their average WAR over the next few seasons. Carpenter and Fowler should start seeing a decrease in their average WAR over the next few seasons. Pham is right in the end of the “prime” years and could hold steady or decline.
IF, big IF, the Cardinals knew they could trade Carpenter (maybe with a prospect) for a quality #2 pitcher AND they knew Martinez would not be the hitter they saw last year, Hosmer would be a good pick up for up to $20 million AAV for up to 6 years. That covers the years from 2020-2023 when Carpenter may be gone. Although, the Cardinals have an option for 2020 at $18.5 million on him.
If Martinez could be the hitter they saw last season for the entire 2018 season and going forward, then use him at 1B since he is only 15 months older than Hosmer and much cheaper.
Of course context matters. Duh.
However… Hosmer was a big name prospect. There is virtually nothing not known about him.
Pham had his vision corrected. Of course that needs to be taken into account.
leone learned a cutter. Of course that needs to be taken into account.
Fowler? Average player, bad defensively who will have to move to a harder comparison position and thus wont have as much value. Stupid signing.
Hosmer? Would need to average 4 WAR to justify 5 years at 18 million.
Number of years he has done that? One. In his walk year. Think about that a second and reassess because he plays one of the hardest comparative positions and thus will have to pretty much play above what he has played previously in major ways to justify that contract.
Context matters. Duh. But trying to justify a bad contract with no upside by comparing people with extenuating circumstances (which hosmer does NOT have) isnt helping a case.
What do I want to do? What any adult learns to do.
You can’t win the lottery if you don’t buy a ticket. You cant get good players if youre not willing to pay the price.
… And sometimes you will lose. That’s the other reality of being an adult. But if you won’t even try you’ve already lost.
Duh, be opportunistic. But you also need the stones to make a real deal where you lose majorly on talent and years of control (see Verlander to houston). And if you are smart you do it NOW, not in midseason.
I want management to grow a pair and pay for players that will actually make a difference. Because hosmer won’t.
You have to pay to play unless you want to wait fifteen years for the farm to restock enough studs to compete.
And if there is no player of that stature on the market then you put up reyes, weaver, and flaherty and MAKE one.
This organization has stagnated because it refuses to break tendencies and go after real difference makers.
Sometimes I fear that our strategy is to just build a team that will consistently win 87-90 games and wait for the Cubs to cycle back downward below that mark. The problem with that strategy is that the Cubs are going to be a 95 win team for at least the next 4 years because that is when the majority of their core will be eligible for free agency if not re-upped before then.
A more aggressive approach would be to try to take the Cubs head on now and push ourselves up to that 95 win level but that would require bold moves and we tend to be more risk averse than that.
Bill DeWitt for a long time has been the head of a private equity group in Cincinnati. They buy/invest in closely held companies. He measures risk with those acquisitions and investments. All you have to do is look at the failure of many long term FA contracts in MLB and you’ll know where he’s coming from. That’s why he doesn’t want to go beyond a 3 year contract for an outsider. Ozuna is a perfect example of the business model he prefers.
We all know he is a successful businessman. He is making millions hand over fist. If, however, a goal is to win the WS then he is the wrong kind of owner. You have to be willing to take risks and yes sometimes sign a long term deal for a bunch of money knowing that the last years will not be productive but the first three or four could be and give you a chance at a trophy. Yes, it’s a risk but if you are not willing to take risks then the team will be respectable and nothing more.
Bill DeWitt’s record as an owner speaks for itself. He always wanted to avoid large multi-year contacts with players from the outside because he’s wanted to see how a player interacted with teammates, the front office, the fans, and the community before making a long term financial commitment. He would rather go with shorter contracts ala Berkman, Beltran, etc.
Things changed when he put his toe in the water with longer term contracts to outside players like Peralta, Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etc. It reconfirmed his decision over all these years not to do that. So now he’s back to the norm – draft pitching and use the excess talent there to fill position player holes as needed. The Ozuna deal had BDW written all over it. Watch the Cardinals come back now that that business has returned to usual.It is Bill DeWitt’s love affair with holding onto prospects that prevented the Cardinals from trading for Ozuna last year. The Cardinals determined cash was cheaper than prospects. And that is what led to the Fowler signing.
Some of the pitchers developed in 2017 beautifully to the point the depth was deepened and some prospects became strong trade chips that wouldn’t have been trade chips in 2016. Who heard of Gallen in 2016? Was Alcantara ready for a major league debut in 2016? Castano had a 6.00+ ERA at Johnson City in 2016. He was lights out at State College in 2017.
It’s not like Gallen and Alcantara were totally unheard of. Gallen was a 3rd round pick, which was exactly where he was projected to go…and they both did show up in the MLB pipeline
MLB 2016 pipelineBut the point was, the Cardinals pretty much announced they were going to sign somebody rather than trade, and that is what they did.
Of course, the year prior, the Marlins had a different regime and were seeking to trade Ozuna for different reasons (he and the Marlins had a public dispute the year prior). They also would have likely sought different prospects.
Exactly. With new ownership in Miami, the time was right for the Ozuna trade.
The time was also right for the Piscotty trade. And the time was right for the Grichuk trade.
Timing is sure important both in trades and FA signings.
Let’s see what happens with the remaining FAs as ST approaches.
Lengths of contracts may come way down.I agree with length being an issue. Id rather offer machado 5 years at 50 million than 7 at 35 and yes I realize the total numbers are close. Thr thing is… At the high end… WAR value is exponential. In other words one 7 WAR year roughly pays for that ENTIRE contract.
He has had several in that vicinity depending on who you use for WAR stats.
Eh… Thought about the math again.
Half of the contract for a 7 WAR year. Give or take any way. The math changes in any given year.
Point is the value in contracts is in superstars and in the 6 years of team control for new players.
Weren’t the Cubs suppose to win 95 games this past year?
I don’t know. I do know that they won 92 games and the division last year during a hangover year. I wouldn’t expect the hangover to last.
until the Cubs get another starter i dont see how they will be better than last year despite the “hangover”
Heyward was poor
Zobrist was poor
Russell was poor
Schwarber was poor
Quintana wasnt what they expected…not terrible but not greatAlmora is a nice but seems to be far from a sensational offensive player
Happ was a nice surprise
Baez took a step forward IMO
Contreras broke outRIzzo and BRyant are stable MVP awesome guys…that fixes a lot
they have zero depth in the minors
Zobrist is old
Lester is getting oldthe rotation has big question marks
for all the down years of guys that anyone could say “well those guys will be better” they have guys that outperformed, and they have guys that are older
IMO they are an injury to Lester away from being in 3rd place…and should the guys who are supposed to get better NOT get better…they might already be 3rd place
they add a top end SP…they are safe….but even then they are walking the line on hoping for no injuries… how long can they go before Bryant or Rizzo dont get hurt…it happens to everyone
Heyward has always been mercurial
Zobrist isnt going to get much better and really isnt a starter anymore
Russell has been up and down with his offense too
Schwarber…will his bat show back up to outperform what they lose from his poor defense
will Contreras have another career year?
will Happ get better or will he be another HR or nothing flash in the pan
will Baez continue to progress without striking out or go back to the K every day guy (his defense is amazing though, i don’t like his attitude on the field but man he is fun to watch)
which version of Hendrick and Quintana will show up?
was Chatwood’s poor performances REALLY about Coors? and is he really healthy?
Will one year of good non closing play from MOrrow really make him a dominant closer? (Davis saved them on several occasions last year)i think the Cubs are far from shoe ins to win anything…and the question marks they have are pretty extensive…i think they will make a move before we start the season but if not im not handing them anything
for better or worse the BRewers and Cardinals have went out and made moves to the plan their organizations put forth…the Cardinals have probably been the MOST active team this offseason with moves..and the BRewers seem to be doing the same thing now
to me i see a 3 headed snake for this division with the Cubs, Cardinals and BRewers as of today
the next team to make a bold move will nudge itself ahead..
the Brewers seem to be that team at the moment…followed by the Cubs…If the Cardinals are really done…we may be looking at an uphill battle in the division as we pin our hopes on youngsters and unprovensIMO…seeing the interest in Salazar by the BRewers…i think they make that deal happen…
Santana for Salazar…upgrading their rotation and that combined with a healthy Nelson being enough for themthen the Cubs sign Darvish…
a bold hitter get for the Cardinals woudl be nice…but i want the top end starter help..i dont want to pay for Arrieta…and Lynn and Cobb seem to want too much…trade for Fulmer, Stroman, Teheran, Archer…somebody young and controllable that has already proven themselves
i dunno… after Cain and Yelich…and knwoing they will undoubtedly move one really good outfielder (Brox, Santana, Phillips) which means they have another GOOD move about to happen…i put the BRewers in 1st place on paper right now
I would expect big bounceback years for Russell and Schwarber, especially Schwarber. We can’t assume he will put up “Dave Kingman” like numbers again like he did last year. He was coming off a major injury and from what I’ve read he has been a workout freak this winter and is expecting a big season this year. As for Russell, he had some off the field issues last year that probably hurt his production.
Bottom line is I’m not expecting another “sluggish” season from the Cubs if you can call 92 wins sluggish.
Schwarber and Russell getting better than last year is only a small part of the equation
also didnt Schwarber come back from his injury the WS year and he raked…he was healthy the whole offseason and then was pretty unremarkable
Russell offield issues? fine, but who is to say those are fixed? and that the result of those off field issues didnt create now ON-field issues
Their rotation is worse (-Arrieta – Lackey + Chatwood + Lester one year older = worse)
Their bullpen is worse (-Davis + Morrow = worse)those are two big issues
and even so…using the same logic of them getting better doesnt that hold up for Carp getting back to normal due to an injury? And Fowler getting full healthy year where he returns to his better play? same goes for Cecil, Gregerson… why can’t Wainwright be recovered from his down year? Why cant CMart actually take that next step? maybe even Weaver too
If we want to play the what if everyone gets back to what they can be I think the Cardinals players have a lot more value to be added than Schwarber and Russell coming back
I think we have a lot more questions than they do. We need more things to go right than they do. I think the World Series hangover is a real thing and that is why I expect them to be stronger this year. The Giants proved that over and over back when they were only good every other year.
Schwarber played in the 2016 WS but he still wasn’t healthy. He hit like crazy in that series on one leg. Last year was basically his recovery season and I expect him to be fully healthy this upcoming season.
I don’t think their rotation will be worse than last season. There is a 99% chance they will sign one of Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn, or trade for an elite pitcher. Plus they have Quintana for the whole season.
On paper, the Cardinals offense is better. Overall, our starting pitching seems better because of depth. The bullpens are probably a toss up. Reyes could make a huge difference, though, if he’s used at the back end.
You guys are obviously seeing something that I’m not seeing. I can’t think of one phase of the game (offense, defense, rotation, pen, base running, manager) that we are better than the Cubs. I hope you are right though.
Edit: I will say that we do have a better farm system than the Cubs since their good players have either been promoted or traded. That could bode well for the future.
Well, this is position-by-position three way comparison
Sporting NewsI would have bet the farm that Gyorko would have been elsewhere next season, still could be I guess. You’d have to think the moose deal is a given until you look at their Dwar next to each other..I dont know how much of a defensive upgrade he is. I also dont think you can pencil him in for 38 hrs a year obviously but 25 plus is realistic, again, im not sure how much of an upgrade he is there…
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