What is wrong with Dexter Fowler and what should be done?

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  • #81940
    1982 willie
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    well I wasn’t a fan of getting fowler when we got him so I feel I have the right to criticize all I want. fowlers the perfect example of how the cards ownership does business. they overpay guys who are either at their prime or in fowlers case, just past it but hope against hope that the gamble pays off. and then they try to hang on when it don’t. this idea that you have to play him just because you owe him this money is silly. you gave him the contract, its the price you pay for being not willing to dish out money long term for more deserving players. pay him and move on. the cardinals have better options, oneill for one. he strike out too much for me personally but hes at least a competent outfielder who will make the routine plays. and unless their drafting is horrible, they should have better options in the minors.

    #81967
    Nathan Leopold Jr.
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    Brian:

    The question I have is, “Have the Cardinals ever benched a big salary?” Sure the Yankess and Red Sox do those things but would the Cardinals sit a 16 million dollar player?

    #81968
    Brian Walton
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    nate, I am not aware of one. My guess is that if Fowler fails this time, they bite the bullet and trade him away while paying most of his salary. Maybe that happens in July or next winter, but I don’t think they keep him as a bench player long-term. And I imagine Fowler would welcome a move elsewhere at that point, so I don’t think the no-trade protection would be an issue. This is the worst-case scenario for the Cards as I see it.

    #81990
    PugsleyAddams
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    “Have the Cardinals ever benched a big salary?”

    A subtle admission from Nate that the Cardinals are in fact not cheap and have and will pony up big $.

    The more I contemplate the Dexter Fowler situation, the more I get the feeling that Dexter is in line for not just an improved season, but one that will garner him a few MVP nods. I’m not saying he’s going to win the prestigious honor, but he will receive some consideration. Hold on to your hats gang…..Dexter is going to light em up in ’19!

    #81994
    gscottar
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    Pugs, are you in one of those states with legal marijuana? Just kidding…..

    That is quite the prediction. I hope you are correct. I would be thrilled if Dexter could just repeat 2017.

    #81999
    Nathan Leopold Jr.
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    Pugs:

    Somehow, you have misinterpreted my post. My point is that since they are cheap they will be reluctant or or simply refuse to eat his salary. If they weren’t cheap they would have released Fowler after the season and signed Harper along with Goldschmidt and Miller…THAT is not being cheap.

    #82005
    mudville
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    Love that optimism, Pugs. I’m pulling for Dex. I want him to be good.

    mspaid, you forgot to mention Kimbrel. In order to have the ‘cheap’ label dropped, they would also have to give Kimbrel the 96, or so, millions that he feels is fair.

    #82007
    Nathan Leopold Jr.
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    Mudville:

    No, Kimbrel, Harper, Machado are not necessary. But releasing Fowler and signing, say McCutheon for right field would suggest they are not afraid of spending. Foolish spending like Fowler is not the answer but if they want the team to be a heavy favorite to win the division and make it to the WS they will have to change their approach. You can’t stop after Goldschmidt and Miller. They put on the brakes every year after one good acquisition and that’s why they miss the playoffs.

    #82010
    Euro Dandy
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    Pugs, are you in one of those states with legal marijuana? Just kidding…..

    Haha, I’ll have what Pugs is having! To paraphrase Vince Lombardi, maybe if Fowler chases the MVP, he’ll catch comeback player of the year.

    Pugs, if that (MVP) happens, I’ll come to Wisconsin and treat you and your better half to Packers tickets and dinner next season. I need a reason to go to Lambeau again and the Packers’ hopes as playoff contender probably ain’t gonna be it. Eh, who are we kidding?

    #82072
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Baseball Reference projects Dexy to hit .236/12HRs in ’19.

    #82075
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Baseball Reference does not do its own projections. They use “Marcel the Monkey”, which in the words of its creator “is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that’s the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier…”

    In other words, it is like steering a boat by looking at its wake. Interesting but you may or may not get where you want to go.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/marcels.shtml

    #82077
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    We’ll only know what outlet is accurate at the end of the season. For now, I’ll go with the monkey as opposed to MVP recognition. But who knows, maybe the monkey gets it wrong!

    ps…. thanx for that info.

    #82079
    Brian Walton
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    Paid - Annual

    Most people would acknowledge the wide range of possible outcomes in between the two extremes cited.

    #82108
    PugsleyAddams
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    Wisconsin is still dry when it comes to legal pot, but should be high soon, now that the Dems are in power once again, Scotty and Mud. Yeah, it just hit me like a rock on Friday that Dexter was going to have a banner year….and these sort of epiphanies seldom betray me. I’m thinking Dex puts up a WAR north of 5.0, with his WAA above 4. I won’t forget your generous offer, Euro! Start making your America’s Dairyland travel plans for this coming October soon…..the wifey and I would gladly have you and Mrs. Euro stay with us for a couple days since you’re springing for the Pack tics.

    #82114
    CariocaCardinal
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    Dont overextend yourself pugs. You still may have some Big Mac’s to buy!

    #82124
    PugsleyAddams
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    Ha! Right you are, CC. I have a few bets going this year. Besides the ones going here, last night I placed a $500 wager with a Brewer loving pal of mine that Fowler will hit for a higher average than Braun (200 PA min). You guys like my chances? I do.

    #82158
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Hmmmm.

    #82186
    Nathan Leopold Jr.
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    Pugs:

    What would suggest to you that a thirty-three-year-old, mediocre player will make up 74 points in average against Braun?

    #82188
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    I am not Pugs, but I know that Braun is over two years older than Fowler (who you seem to suggest is aging) and has struggled with injury. Further, in 2017, their batting averages were only .004 apart.

    #82191
    PugsleyAddams
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    Indeed Brian! I couldn’t have said it better myself….. and that should go without saying. I think it could be very close, but I like Dexter’s odds. As a quick aside, that Braun is one very strange character. Not a guy you’d want dating your daughter.

    #82193
    Bob Reed
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    Free

    “What would suggest to you that a thirty-three-year-old, mediocre player will make up 74 points in average against Braun?”

    I’m not Pugs of course, but I believe that Fowler will unquestionably hit much better than last year, now that John Mabry’s gone. Not good enough to justify a starting lineup slot, but still far better than 2018.

    To estimate how much better Dex will hit, let’s average the 2018 post-Mabry hitting improvements of Grichuk, Wong, Pham, Ozuna, Voit, Piscotty, and Aledmys Diaz. Some of those batters will of course be compared to their 2017 St. Louis performances, and some to their 2018 half-seasons with Mabry.

    Voit improved by 151 points of batting average (or 93 points above his career Cardinal number)
    Wong improved by 104 points
    Pham by 95 points
    Ozuna +31
    Piscotty +32
    Diaz +4
    Grichuk +7

    So let’s see. That’s 424 points of batting average, divided by 7, or just over 60 points apiece. An improvement of 60 points for Fowler would leave him with a 2019 batting average of .240 (the Marcels forecast says .236). In 2018 Ryan Braun hit .254, worst of his career. So it’s tough to imagine Fowler catching him. But here’s hoping.

    (Sorry for usurping, Pugs. Also, thanks for the kind comments of a few weeks back on another thread. I was out of town, incommunicado for a protracted spell. Thanks also to gscott, Euro, Pads, and muddy for their generous remarks back then. Please forgive the extreme tardiness of my response, gents.)

    #82242
    forsch31
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    Nate, if you think that McCutchen is that much of an improvement over Fowler, it tells me everything I need to know about whether I would want you to be my GM. McCutchen is only 6 months younger than Fowler. He outperformed Fowler in 2018 but Fowler was a slightly better hitter over 2016-2017.

    #82245
    Bw52
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    Anybody that wants either Fowler or McCutcheon to get a large amount of playing time is out of their freaking mind.McCutcheon was good for a while a few years back…Fowler never been more than average and now he is albatross who needs to be gone or stuck parked on the bench and used as a PH.

    #82282
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    I can see that some folks around here believe that Fowler will return to his previous pre-’18 form, others are hoping. And why not…. our real GM is betting the ranch on it. It may just be a dark path. Whatever the case the money spent will never be realized in performance. Sorry Pugs…. no MVP for you.

    #82319
    stlcard25
    Participant

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    At best, average Fowler would be around the 5th most valuable position player on the team. His replacements would fall around the same place. I’d hardly call that betting the farm. If he’s terrible, the team still probably contends. If he’s at his 2017 levels, they probably win the Central.

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