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I haven’t underestimated the Cubs at all the last several years. If anything I was leading the charge explaining how they were building a monster while the Cardinals were sitting around. I could see it coming while some on this board doubted it would actually happen. Well it happened.
Having said that, Theo Epstein is no dummy and I don’t think they will spend $50m on their rotation this winter even if they have the money to do it. He knows that would cripple them in soon time. They might go after one of the big pitchers like Darvish or Arrieta but then they will trade some assets for a more affordable ace like Archer then have plenty of money left to rebuild the bullpen and add a another bat if they want.
I’m not advocating for the Cardinals to sit around and do nothing this winter. I think we can make a couple of moderately big moves that push up close to the 90 win mark (Simmons, Cain, or Bruce, etc…) then go for the jugular in 2019 when the Cubs will be farther along in their boom/bust cycle and will be forced to pay more to their young sluggers.
Mo recently stated something to the effect that Molina was the only untouchable this offseason. I’ve been thinking about that. It seems to me that the only real advantage we have over the Cubs right now is young, controllable pitching, therefore, I don’t think I would be trading any of that away.
We are not going to be able to out slug the Cubs in the foreseeable future even if we do add a big bat so let’s focus on our strength. True, the Cubs may deal some young bats for young elite pitching like Archer, but for now, we have the advantage there. They are most likely losing Arrieta and Lackey, and Lester will be 34 next season and starting to show signs of slowing down. That really leaves them with Hendricks and Quintana as young guns.
I say all of this to recommend that we add CMart, Reyes, and Weaver to the untouchable list and I would have to be blown away to consider dealing Flaherty, Hudson, Gomber, or any of the rest. I’m sure the Marlins or whoever else we deal with will ask for young pitching but I would say no unless we are made an offer we just can’t refuse. We have about 50 outfielders we need to trade plus a few infield pieces too.
Bernie Miklasz sees this as a “get rid of Matheny’s coaches and bring in Mo’s coaches”. I don’t think I would buy that unless Matheny really chose the guys who were let go. Didn’t the front office pick the previous guys, too?
You might be right about that Brian. I really don’t know who chose the previous staff. I always assumed it was a collaborative effort between the FO and manager but you never know. Regardless, when a team shakes up the coaching staff no matter what the sport is, it serves as a warning sign to the head coach that he is next unless performance improves.
I wonder if they are grooming Schildt to be the next manager?
I would be fine with any of the three. Maybe Eversgard will get the bullpen job. Would be a nice promotion for him.
Per Richard Justice of MLB.com:
Game 1 winner has won World Series 70 of 112 Times (62.5%). Done it 12 of last 14 and 17 of last 20.
Unfortunately the Game 1 winner didn’t win last year.
From what I’ve read about Gonzalez’s injury it sounds rather debilitating. I’d be surprised if he ever plays again. It is odd though that he would go to Europe as his teammates are fighting for a World Series. It is just downright disrespectful actually.
Gscottar:
What do you have to be to win the WS?
Well I think high quality starting pitching, a lockdown bullpen, and good situational hitting is a good place to start.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs do all of the above and then some. They have a very aggressive front office and they now feel entitled.
On another topic, most on this board, myself included, have been screaming for a MOTO bat. I keep pondering how in the heck did the Dodgers steam roll the Cubs with a lineup that didn’t look very intimidating on paper.
Taylor: Few ever heard of him before this season. Flash in the pan?
Seager: Missed the NLDS. A very good hitter but not really an elite slugger.
Turner: Very good hitter, not an elite slugger, but very good.
Bellinger: Could be considered an elite slugger but small sample size.
Puig: Who knows what you get from this guy from one minute to the next. I think mercurial fits the bill.
Barnes/Grandal: Decent players, nothing special.
Forsythe: Decent player, nothing special.
Pederson: Their version of Grichuk.
K. Hernandez: A combo of Joe McEwing and Tom LawlessThe point is you don’t have to be the ’27 Yankees to win the World Series.
From the early 80’s to the mid 90’s the Yankees were terrible. Only when someone in the Yankees front office (Gene Michael) finally convinced George to stop acting so impulsively did they start to win consistently.
I don’t get the Red Sox either. Pushing Francona and Ferrell out the door doesn’t make sense to me.
Why would a top flight manager want the Washington job? Harper and Murphy are free agents after 2018 and apparently you get fired if you don’t at least reach the NLCS or World Series.
Lot of good stuff over at Viva El Birdos today. VEB makes the argument the Cardinals should wait one more year until making a huge aggressive splash since we aren’t likely to catch the Cubs in 2018 anyway. They recommend trading for Andrelton Simmons (which I have been in support of for months) and signing Lorenzo Cain.
While neither would be a middle of the order bat, the two massive defensive upgrades, along with beefing up the bullpen should put us squarely in place for a wild card and still have enough resources to make a bigger splash next offseason.
I would rather have Yelich than Ozuna. Yelich is more athletic and appears to still be ascending in his production whereas I fear that Ozuna may have plateaued.
Bernie Miklasz has an interesting spin. The Cubs being dominated by the Dodgers will make them even hungrier this off-season and they may be competing with the Cards for relievers.
https://www.101sports.com/2017/10/20/cardinals-beware-getting-crushed-nlcs-will-make-cubs-hungrier/
Oh I have no doubt the Cubs will start the offseason guns blazing.
They will get Hickey as their pitching coach, trade one or more of their young sluggers for Chris Archer, sign or trade for an elite closer, acquire several elite set up men, and probably go after another big OF bat. Heck, they might trade for Stanton. They have one of the most aggressive front office’s out there.
I just hope our front office will be aggressive also.
Well at least with Dusty they didn’t have guys choking each other in the dugout.
The point is that a successful franchise doesn’t change managers every two years, especially when they are winning over 90 games per year. Is the ghost of George Steinbrenner running the team?
Dusty was a good manager. Decisions like this are why the Nats won’t be winning a championship anytime soon. They are really a joke of an organization. This will be their 4th manager in the last 7 years. The Cardinals have had 4 managers in the last 37 years.
One thing is crystal clear: You don’t win a championship without a lockdown bullpen. I think the Astros are finding that out and the Dodgers had a clear advantage over the Cubs. Whether we pay for one, develop one, or whatever we MUST upgrade the pen. We can’t go into the year with the attitude of “figure it out as we go because spending on the pen is a bad investment.” There is nothing more demoralizing than blowing late leads.
Nicasio would be an excellent setup man. We would still need a lockdown closer. I’m not sure the FO wants to spend that much on the pen.
Only one team has come back from 0-3 to win a series (2004 Red Sox). Hopefully the Cubs won’t be the second.
Could be heading towards a Dodgers-Yankees World Series. The TV networks would love that.
I’m fine with going to 32 teams but I think going to the NFL division approach of eight divisions of four makes more sense. There would be a lot of pushback for doing away with the NL and AL.
If the goal is to put each division team in the same time zone here is how I would do it. Not perfect but not bad.
NL East: Mets, Phillies, Expos, Pirates
NL North: Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Brewers
NL South: Nationals, Braves, Marlins, Rays
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Padres, DBacks
AL East: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles
AL North: Indians, White Sox, Tigers, Twins
AL South: Astros, Royals, Rangers, Rockies
AL West: Angels, A’s, Mariners, PortlandChapman, Melancon, and Kimbrel all have big deals and I’m sure Davis is about to get one too. I’m not sure I would put Holland in that category. If he wants that kind of contract I would pass. It would be better to bring back Nicasio, sign Rosy to a two year deal, and see what Alcantara can do. Also, Lyons is pretty solid and maybe Cecil will bounce back.
How the Dodgers are winning is pretty amazing. Their lineup is very weak w/o Seager. It is basically Turner, Bellinger, and a bunch of scrubs. (Ok, Taylor and Puig are decent). Seriously, other than Seager, are there any Dodger position players that would be a starter for the Cubs w/o switching positions? I would argue no. You wouldn’t start Tuner and Bellinger over Bryant and Rizzo would you?
They are winning with dominant pitching and enough hitting to get by. Sounds like old school NL style baseball. If the Cub lineup comes to life they could still easily win this series though which worries me.
I’m with Rat. Anyone but the Cubs!
Well I can’t imagine Lynn would get less than Leake got. He will probably get 5 years and between 90-100M.