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The 11th round is often where teams get aggressive & draft a HS player or other upside play & then go over slot. We’ll see if that happens tomorrow. If not, it’s fair to wonder is Weatherholt worth punting on the other 18 rounds the draft vs. drafting someone like Montgomery (at slot( & then being able to be more aggressive throught the rest of the draft?? My working theory, completely unsubstantiated, is that the Nationals, armed with the extra 2.5 million in pool money from their trade with KC, were floating Weatherholt down to them.
I fear a scenario where both Burns & Smith are gone & then the Cards still draft for need & reach for Yeasavage at #7. High floor is synonymous with the Cards, much more than high upside-which the Cards should be targeting at the top of the draft & without a 2nd rd. pick.
It’s clear from Flores’ drafts (non 2020-the outlier due to extraordinary circumstances) that he & his team, under Mo’s direction, target floor much more than upside. While that strategy produces a higher number of MLB players than most, few have significant impact/All-star caliber players. Lots of depth pieces & glue guys. That strategy would be fine with me, if they were producing the occasional star in their International program. But, because their DSL program has been largely non-existent the past 5 years, finding younger, high-upside players in their system is like finding an unicorn holding a 4-leaf clover. That puts the onus on player procurement almost entirely on the domestic side of things…leading me back to my first point. Whomever the Cards take at #7 HAS to be an impact player and someone that can be regularly in the All-Star discussions. Picking 7th is no time for searching out the highest floor. Dare to be bold!!
Couldn’t agree more:Jnevel!! Throw in a half dozen errors & you have a fun product!!
Btw…it wasn’t great seeing the Cards top bonus guy not get out if the 1st inning! I’m sure there was tons of rust flying off him, but it’s still a reminder as to why most teams won’t spend big bucks on teenage, Latin pitchers. Of course, in classic Mo style (zigging when everyone else zags), that’s where the Cards invest thier money.
Speaking of higher bonus DSL pitchers, what happened to the 6’8″ pitcher they signed last year? Did he already wash out or just abandon baseball to play for the DR Olympic basketball team?? Haha
The Cards DSL team just had more hits & scored more runs today than they did in the entirety of last season!! Optimism for the major league team in 2030!! Haha
To add a layer to this discussion, both Elias & Sig Mejdal, his analytics guru /asst GM, were both members of the Cardinals organization-back in the Luhnow days (early 2010’s). This is back when the Cards were at the forefront of draft & development-especially pitchers (think Trevor Rosenthal, Joe Kelly & Kevin Siegrist). After Luhnow’s departure (& him taking many of their top minds with him to Houston), it seems that Mo never backfilled those roles with equally forward thinking people. It seems like it’s been all like-minded, safe (Cardinals way) type people. No one is pushing boundaries anymore or starting trends. The Cards front office are all “behind the curve” followers right now…
I know that this thread is related to the 2024 domestic draft, but since it’s evolved into a Cards/Orioles comparison, the Orioles had NO presence in Latin America when Elias arrived. Now, in a few short years (5 to be exact) they had more infrastructure in place & high-end L.A. prosects in their system than do the Cards. Juxtapose that with the Cards Latin American system which has since been contracted from two DSL teams to one & has provided no one of impact, or even exciting prospect that could be trade bait…not since Carlos Martinez.
I fear that both Burns & Smith throw too hard & have too good of stuff for the Cards to consider them. If they go pitching, I fear that it will be Santuccu or Hartle. Control & pitchability. Who really wants strikeouts or front of the rotation guys??
I fear that both Smith & Burns throw too hard & have too good stuff for the Cards to consider either. I fear that if they go pitching, it will be Santucci or Hartle. Love control and pitchability…strikeouts be damned!
I’m hardly a draft expert, especially this far removed from the draft, but any time a players floor is touted more than thier ceiling, it’s a safe bet to say that player is likely to become a Cardinal!! I just hope that the last two years worth of embarrassingly conservative draft picks is eschewed for a more aggressive approach, now that they are armed with a higher pick each round. I’m not expecting a Padres-like draft filled with upside, but maybe we’ll see a high school player drafted for the first time in a couple of years! Crazy notion, huh?? 🤣
If Hjerpe has to become a reliever, he becomes yet another highly drafted pitching “miss” by the scouting & development team. I know many will argue that just making the majors and offering up any value at all is a “win”, but for a 1st round pick, I believe much more should be expected.
Flores definitely has been able to ride an amazing 2020 draft for the past couple of years. But, unless the Cards plan to spend big to offset organizational shortcomings, Flores & his team need to start hitting on pitcher EVERY year! Hopefully now that Mo has embraced, or st least accepted that his pitch to contact philosophy is wrong & about 28-29 other teams are right to target power stuff, the quality of the pitchers drafted will improve. Additionally, if the Cards had any semblance of a Latin American program, they wouldn’t have to rely so heavily on the domestic draft! A complete gutting of the Latin American scouting & development team is warranted!
Couldn’t agree more with the tenor of this thread! The Cards are one of the best at producing WAR from the domestic draft. Why can’t that translate, at all, to the international side? They consolidated their DSL trams from two to one, presumably so that DeWitt could save (make) more money. Despite all of thier Latin American talent on one team, which should theoretically produce a strong team, as opposed to DSL rosters split between two teams, thier DSL team was an unmitigated disaster!! The complex league team, comprised of primarily the “cream of the crop” from prior DSL talent, was equally terrible. Why? Teams like the Dodgers Yankees& other teams who pick historically late on the domestic draft-missing out on the high-end talent, augment thier roster with Latin American players.
While Mo focuses on the MLB team & revamping the organizational pitching methodology this off season, a complete gutting of thier Latin American scouting & development staff needs to happen as well! No excuse about draft position or budgetary puke points to fall back on…
Anyone lamenting how bad the major league team is can quickly find solace…they’re not bad at all, when compared to either the Catds complex league or DSL teams!! Those two squads need to get a lot better to be considered merely terrible!! In many games, they get less than 5 hits & frequently have more errors than hits. To say that Mo has overseen a complete & total organizational failure this year is not overstating things…
For those fans like me who wish to find glimmers of hope at the lower levels of the system (i.e. dreaming on some teenage prodigy to someday save the Cards), there’s nothing to be found. I guess I need to get my Victor Scott jersey now, as he represents the only exciting player in the system-wuth Winn promoted.
Thank you jnevel & all others for the insights! I couldn’t agree more that the Cards need to start making the international market a viable, annual source of talent. An extra 5-10 million per year in Latin American infrastructure would be money far better spent than the annual 5 million to a middle reliever at the MLB level. I realize that the international market is highly volatile & the Cards are pretty much risk averse, but the Orioles, who largely ignored the international market until like 3 years ago (& can’t have that many long standing relationships), already have a better talent pipeline than the Cards…
Despite their terrible records in both the FCL & DSL leagues, are there any real glimmers of light or reasons for optimism (hope) amongst the individual players? I’m asking those who follow this closer than I do (i.e. merely looking at the box scores & cringing)…
I’m guessing that we would have read something, but I wonder what the delay is in announcing the signing of Luis Miguel Leon? It’s been two months since word leaked…
Thank you again for your informed insights & some speculation, Brian!
I know for years (maybe 15-20 years ago), the Cards didn’t even really have a presence in Latin America. For a team that eschews high ticket free agents, and quickly reaches a “puke point” when attempting to trade for young stars (to teams that won’t accept 20 cents one the dollar in prospect value and/or in a salary dump), there really is only one way to acquire impact talent… the domestic draft or via the international market. According to Mo, picking in the 20’s means a lack of impact talent (domestically) available in Rd #1. In my admittedly uniformed opinion, L.A. is where the Cards should invest way more $$. 10-15 million more spent (per year) in Latin American infrastructure. scouting & support would seem to yield far more than that same 10-15 million spent on a mid-tier MLB relief pitcher. That’s how the Dodgers and others have a never ending supply of MLB caliber Latin players, supplementing their big ticket free agent spending.
Thank you for the update Brian! I may gave misspoke, I was referring to Reiner Lopez. Has he made his DSL debut yet?
Since you mentioned the consolidation of the DSL teams from 2 to 1. Do you have any insights as to why they did that? Was it merely cost savings? Do you fear that with only one DSL team and significant yearly turnover, is there concern that the Cards may cut bait on players prematurely, due to a lack of in-game looks?
I understand that team records in the minors, especially low minors, don’t mean a whole lot. That said, the Cards FCL & DSL teams are dumpster fires!! Hopefully, it’s not as simple as “bad players make bad teams”. In this lost MLV season, I was really hoping for some “star” young player to develop. Maybe those on this board who know much more than I can assuage my concerns for the long-term prospects?
On that subject, did thier 6’8″ DSL pitcher make his debut yet? If so, I missed it…
I agree that the Cards are among the best at turning minor league players into productive mlb players. The problem, as I see it, is a lack of star power. For the past 10-15 years (Mo era) the Cards have relied their organizational depth, augmented by a couple of stars acquired from other teams, to remain competitive. The Cards 2 best players were acquired by teams looking for salary relief & willing to accept 20 cents on the dollar in prospect quality vs quantity. Is that model sustainable moving forward? Once Goldy ages out, where will the Cards turn for impact talent? The A’s have nothing left, neither do the Rockies. Lots of pressure for Walker to become a star, not just a good player!!
I think that this draft will tell us if Mo finally is acknowledging his HUGE mistake in leaning into pitchability and pitch to contact vs. bat missing, power, riding fastballs at the top of the zone (like every other successful team). If he’s finally awoken, I see the Cards drafting more college pitchers with big stuff and maybe questionable command, instead of 91-92mph. Once this draft ends & I read about the pitcher’s stuff, I’ll know if there is hope for the future. If it’s more of the same Pete Hansen’sof the world, well, you know…
Given how poor the mlb teams is, I’m even more fixated on the amateur talent acquisitions this year. Any idea as to how much money was spent on this prospect? I guess I thought that they used all of thier remaining money on that Leon kid?
Thanks for dropping this nugget!! Do you have any sense as to how hard he throws, or what type of pitcher (sinker/slider) he is?
I can’t thank you folks enough, both for the warm welcome as well as in the insight!
I worry that the Cards may miss out on slower developing players, due to the higher turnover rate in their DSL team. With only one team available & bringing in 15-20 new prospects each year, means that 15-20 guys have to go. Does having only one team mean that they might cut bait much sooner, even prematurely? There’s plenty of instances where guys didn’t develop until they were 20-21 vs. 18-19. I always defer to what the Dodgers do, as the pioneers & leaders in international player procurement & development.
Yeah, now that you mention it, I do recall The Epstein, while Cubs GM, complaining about the Cards getting comp picks. Now that he works for MLB, perhaps he played a role?
Thank you again for the insights!
Hi- I’m new here. I have a couple of questions that I can’t seem to find the answers to:
Can someone please explain why the Cards downsized from two DSL teams to one? Strictly money savings? An indication of a “de-investment” in Latin America-focusing more on other markets (Asian)?
Did the new CBA eliminate the cards form receiving a Comp pick, moving forward, due to their market size & revenue? Just trying to figure out why they received a Comp pick in 2020 & 2021, but not 2022 or 2023. Since I’m guessing that the city of St Louis didn’t become larger market overnight, does the formula for awarding Comp picks currently weigh more heavily on revenue (i.e. the Cards strength)?
Thank you in advance for any insight you can offer!
