- This topic has 560 replies, 44 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Some are so anxious to try to undermine that they just don’t get it. Let me explain. Even at #7, the Cardinals are fortunate to have a chance to pick a top tier collegiate player. There are seven considered “top tier” and the Cardinals pick seventh. They are fortunate.
I wish they drafted 30th.
THE 2024 @MLBDraft IS ONE MONTH AWAY!
Here's our latest mock ⬇️ https://t.co/t5XzHM9bBY
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 13, 2024
This draft class just feels off to me. It is a very 1B top heavy draft, although I think Condon will make an alright RFer. Players drafted as 1B have not historically done well even as top draft picks. I really am not a fan of Caglianone and I have a feeling he lasts into the 10s despite being projected in the top 5 always. The guys swings at everything. He didn’t strike out much in college, but that approach will be exploited by pros.
I like what I have seen of Wetherholt, but that is a big if depending on the physical evaluations. I originally liked Montgomery, but looking at the history of college bats striking out at his rate, I would skip him.
I don’t like taking pitchers at the top of the draft given the double risk with them. They can bust first of all, and then the odds of a pitcher staying healthy are so low especially for top stuff guys. I would consider Hagen if he is available, but I bet the Royals take him.
I’ll probably be burned for liking Griffin since he has the best tools in the draft, but the biggest bust potential as well. It all depends on what the org thinks of his hit tool and if they can work with him on it. Rainer is definitely the safer of the HS SS but doesn’t have the same upside.
There just aren’t any players I love at the top of this draft beyond Condon and Bazzana, and neither makes it to us.
I look forward to seeing Eric Longenhagen’s rankings as he seems to often be more realistic on tool evaluations. Sometimes I feel MLB Prospect Pipeline isn’t willing to hand out below average grades on tools of top talents even when they actually are below average. Eric also has good info from the teams and he factors that into his evaluations as well.
Brian – 2016 to date. Flores years with the draft. I just did a spot check on the Guardians and their total WAR for that period is in the 80’s, so that is an organization that has prospered from the draft.
BOC, you seem to have no other objective here than to bait others on Burly. This is your last warning to contribute to Cardinals baseball discussion or head to time out. Your decision.
I just watched the FSU-TN CWS game. By far, the star of the show was Christian Moore, the 2B for Tennessee. 5-6, Cycle + double. At least three of his hits were 112+ mph.
He had 32 HR coming into the game, now has 33 on the year. Coulbe be a top 10 pick.
The players I would like to see drafted in rounds 3 & 4 (if possible) – Dylan Dreiling, hit the walk-off double. Was shaky on defense, but good at the plate. His strikeout numbers on the season were pretty high, but he is only a sophomore (draft eligible).
Jaime Ferrer – would be the other player I would like to see the Cardinals draft. 2-4 with double & HR.
Cam Smith was by far the best defensive player on the field.
It’s clear from Flores’ drafts (non 2020-the outlier due to extraordinary circumstances) that he & his team, under Mo’s direction, target floor much more than upside. While that strategy produces a higher number of MLB players than most, few have significant impact/All-star caliber players. Lots of depth pieces & glue guys. That strategy would be fine with me, if they were producing the occasional star in their International program. But, because their DSL program has been largely non-existent the past 5 years, finding younger, high-upside players in their system is like finding an unicorn holding a 4-leaf clover. That puts the onus on player procurement almost entirely on the domestic side of things…leading me back to my first point. Whomever the Cards take at #7 HAS to be an impact player and someone that can be regularly in the All-Star discussions. Picking 7th is no time for searching out the highest floor. Dare to be bold!!
I’m not sure if I agree Gronky. That has certainly been the criticism of the Cards in the past. But I think Flores has actually been far more aggressive with the Cards early draft picks. My examples:
2019 – Tre Fletcher was a big reach in the 2nd round. Lots of upside. Zero floor. This one worked out as bad as could possibly be imagined.
2020 – Jordan Walker was considered somewhat of a reach in the first round. Lots of upside. But he didn’t have a position and he struck out a lot. Tink Hence was a bit of a reach at the end of the 2nd round too. He had high upside but tons of question marks with his size and age.
2021 – Baez was picked in the 2nd round. Not at all a reach as he had first round talent. But certainly a guy with high potential but a low floor.
2022 – The Cardinals again went after upside, this time in the first round by taking Cooper Hjerpe who certainly was considered risky, but with lots of upside. He was projected to go about 10-12 picks later.
In 2023, the Cardinals went with a lot of safer picks.
The results haven’t necessarily been great, but I think the Cardinals have changed to at least sometimes going after high upside picks. There are some truly “Cardinals” traditional picks in there too like Thompson and McGreevey.
When Gronky is talking about “floor” guys – I agree with him with respect to college pitchers. In almost every draft we have chosen a college pitcher, there have been other pitchers who I liked more that had more upside.
Hjerpe was the only one that I recall that had high upside.
BA’s Mock 4.0 has the Cards taking Bryce Rainer, SS/RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif. (or maybe Nick Kurtz).
That is Flaherty’s high school. (They have Wetherholt going #1.)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-mock-draft-4-0-projecting-the-top-39-picks/
Fun watching FSU hitting approach going up to the plate ready to hit and not take pitch after pitch down the middle and never swing the bat.
Most recent mock draft from ESPN posted this morning.
7. St. Louis Cardinals
Hagen Smith, LHP, ArkansasThe Cardinals are in a good spot, with one of the two top pitchers likely to make it, none of the elite hitters are really in play — making that decision beyond their control — but they could act as a floor for Wetherholt, and they could also get their choice of any high school player in the country.
Smith answers too many questions for the organization at large — St. Louis has lacked frontline starting pitching recently — to pass up given what’s available. Rainer is believed to be in play here, as is Montgomery, but a college player is more likely to be the pick.
FWIW, the other two major mocks (BA and MLB) both have Smith going to the Royals with the pick just ahead of StL.
I’m all in on Wetherholt! I believe he’s the best player in this draft and there is a chance he’ll be there at #7.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.