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I wasn’t aware of this, but Johnny Bench, Mike Schmidt, Randy Johnson, George Brett and Greg Maddux were all plucked from the 2nd round of the draft. Someone noticed Rickey Henderson in the 4th round and Nolan Ryan was stumbled upon by the Mets in the 10th round. When ranking each Big League team’s greatest draft picks the Cardinals and Indians are widely considered to have taken their greatest draft picks from a lower round than any other organization. Jim Thome was taken by Cleveland in the 13th round. That same number 13 was also lucky for the Cardinals.
BA’s latest mock has Wetherholt going #1 to the Guardians. Blake and I will be discussing the various mocks and a Cardinals dark horse or two on tomorrow’s podcast.
I realize that draft past the first few picks isn’t easy to pin down…but any thoughts on players we should have an eye on for when the Cards’ 2nd pick comes around at #80?
This is a year when having the 2nd round pick and the Competitive Balance pick would have made a nice difference. I believe this year the Comp pick would have been in line for a pick between rounds 1 and 2. $2.5M or so for slot, and then $1.6M for the lost pick for Gray.
Gray in the rotation is a decent consolation prize.
LA24…there are no sure things but Hagan Smith has to be the pick for the Cardinals if he is available.
Fangraphs put out there mock and have Rainer going to the Cards. Longenhagen mentioned that he has heard Rainer, Burns, and Kurtz. He says KC is mostly linked to Smith and Rainer.
I fear a scenario where both Burns & Smith are gone & then the Cards still draft for need & reach for Yeasavage at #7. High floor is synonymous with the Cards, much more than high upside-which the Cards should be targeting at the top of the draft & without a 2nd rd. pick.
Here is ESPN’s latest mock:
1. Cleveland- JJ Wetherholt
2. Cincinatti- Jac Caglianone
3. Colorado- Charlie Condon
4. Oakland- Travis Bazzana
5. Chicago (AL)- Konnor Griffin
6. Kansas City- Chase Burns
7. St. Louis- Hagen Smith
8. Los Angeles (AL)- Braden Montgomery
9. Pittsburgh- Bryce Rainer
10. Washington- James TibbsConcerning Smith Kiley McDaniel says:
“I assume this is as low as any of those consensus top five will fall, but they don’t in this scenario, instead giving the Cardinals a shot at picking a potential frontline starter in Smith. Rainer has been discussed here, but I think Smith and Montgomery are the realistic options.”
I fear a scenario where both Burns & Smith are gone & then the Cards still draft for need & reach for Yeasavage at #7. High floor is synonymous with the Cards, much more than high upside-which the Cards should be targeting at the top of the draft & without a 2nd rd. pick.
I’m not so sure that’s true anymore. The Cards have went generally away from the safe pick approach in the first round in most drafts since 2018, IMO.
2018 Gorman HS IF
2019 Thompson college LHP
2020 Walker HS IF
2021 McGreevy college RHP
2022 Hjerpe college LHP
2023 Davis college OFOf those, I’d really only say McGreevy is a floor over ceiling guy…the rest were ceiling over floor players that generally fell a bit to get to the Cards. That seems to be their biggest tell where they usually pick.
Gscottar, I’m basically sold on Smith as being the guy I would like most at this point. I think Wetherholt could end up as the best player who has a chance to fall to #7, and Burns has a better shot at becoming the best starter in the game. I think Smith is a Hjerpe+, and I think Hjerpe will be a 4 or 5 for us at worst, or a very good bullpen guy. I’d be happy with any of those 3. I’d be ok with Rainer. Not happy with Griffin, Montgomery or Kurtz.
I think our best case scenario is outlined in the MLB mock that you share. We need someone to take Griffin or Montgomery ahead of us. That would mean that at least one of Burns, Smith or Wetherholt will be available at 7, since Bazzana, Cags and Condon are locks in the top 4.
This would have been a good draft to have the trade pick option because if Smith or Burns not there then trade back and get extra picks. Cardinals also picked the wrong year to pick in top 10.
I think Burns or Smith and then who knows. Flores needs to hit on this pick, because not sure if Michael McGreevy, Zach Thompson, Chase Davis, are not being developed or misses by Flores. Gorman and Walker I tribute to Cardinals screwing them up. Hjerpe I have hope for.I’ve seen Kurtz in several mocks going to the Cardinals, I wouldn’t hate that, but strictly a 1B option is beyond risky.
I also hope this is the last year we have to sign a free agent attached to a qualifying offer. We have done it two offseasons in a row which hurts our draft, especially this year picking so high.
The big day is today and like MLB clubs this week, I spent some time putting together what would be my draft board. I am excited about the draft and wanted to write down my order so everyone can ridicule me in a few years when I am inevitably wrong. I’ve spent more time investigating players and my thoughts on some have changed now that Fangraphs also released their board which isn’t afraid to scrutinize players.
I will say I am very glad the Cards pick at 7 and not 8. I didn’t plan it this way, but I see a group of 7 that I think is a step above the rest. I’ll break this down into tiers with my rankings in each one.
Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
1. JJ Wetherholt* – SS
2. Charlie Condon – RF
3. Travis Bazzana – 2BI put an * next to Wetherholt and that is dependent on medical evals. Wetherholt has the best bat to ball skills in this draft, has slightly above average pop, and has the range to play SS albeit with a below average arm. That has him as my best overall in the class given the position and bat to ball skills. If he somehow falls to the Cards, you absolutely take him. The posters on this site love bat to ball skill with low K%, and Wetherholt is by far the best in this class in that regard while also having upside with power.
Tier 2 – The Hagen Tier
4. Hagen Smith – LHPI have stated I do not like drafting pitchers, and that is generally true if there is a equal talent available that is a position player. While I like the tier 3 position players, they all have hit tool risk that has me putting them a tier below Hagen. Hagen looks like a #2 SP, but we do need to see him develop a changeup. The injury risk is always there and Hagen had TJ surgery, but I do believe in his upside.
Tier 3 – Upside with Some Risk
5. Bryce Rainer – SS
6. Braden Montgomery – RF
7. Chase Burns – RHPAll 3 of these players have flaws in my book, but they all have great upside and I am betting on that upside playing out. Both Rainer and Montgomery have some hit tool risk, but have above average power. I also think both can improve their hit tool over time. Rainer has the potential to be a regular All-Star with his tools, but does need some tweaks to his swing to be a more consistent hitter. Montgomery should drop switch hitting in my opinion and only bat LH. He has better plate discipline as a LH and has a better LH swing overall. I really debated between Rainer and Montgomery for 5, but settled on Rainer since he will likely stick at SS with good range and a cannon arm. Burns has great upside as a #2 starter, but I think he carries more RP risk with his violent delivery. His upside is so great though and he clearly misses bats.
Tier 4 – Star Upside, Dud Downside
8. Jac Caglianone – 1B
9. Konnor Griffin – RF
10. Theo Gillen – 2B/CFThere is a clear dividing line between 7 and 8 for me. Cags and Griffin have really, really good upside, but are probably 2 of the riskiest players in the draft. Cags simply swings at everything and will be exposed by pro pitchers. Griffin has all the tools in the world, but they are completely untested as he played against bad competition. If I think a player has below a 40 hit tool (I do on both), then I am very hesitant on them and really need to take them unless there aren’t great alternatives available. Gillen is unique in that if he were healthy, I think he would be a top 10 pick. He has the best bat to ball skills of any HS and has pop as well. But it seems teams are scared of his health.
Tier 5 – The Next Group
11. Cam Smith – 3B
12. Nick Kurtz – 1B
13. Brody Brecht – RHP
14. Trey Yesavage – RHPSmith, Kurtz, and Yesavage could be big league regulars, but I see them as more floor over potential and would very much not want the Cards to take any at 7 as we need upside. Brecht has ace potential upside, but only recently started focusing on baseball full-time (played football and baseball at Iowa) and does not have command at all yet. His stuff is up there with Smith and Burns. I also would not want the Cards to draft Brecht (especially not at 7), but would trust a middle team like the Mariners more to develop him and turn him into an ace.
Group College Favs
Other names I have seen people like, but I don’t see them being valuable big leaugers are Christian Moore and James Tibbs III. Both have serious question marks with Moore’s ability to make contact regularly and play D anywhere other than 1B in the future with Tibbs question being his ability to play defense anywhere. Both simply need to rake at the big league level to be valuable given their defensive liabilities.So, BA has no credibility because one staffer made a minor reporting mistake? You are consistent at least.
Haha yeah I want to clarify my statement as well. It isn’t I don’t trust BA, but when it comes to box scores, MLB is the most trusted authority.
I think there are 2 type of teams on Wetherholt. One who thinks he is healthy and have him in the top 3, and others who aren’t as sure on his health having him in the 6-10 range. For all it is worth, if his hamstring still isn’t fully healthy, I still take him if I’m the Cards. You do not get a chance to take a #1 overall type of player often at 7.
Agreed. I’ve never thought to check BA for box scores. That is not in their wheelhouse. But I trust them in having industry contacts and in player evaluation. That is why I subscribe to them. That didn’t change due to one typo.
Be nice if either Smith or Wetherholt are still available at #7. Kurtz will likely be there and would be a solid pick for the Cardinals.
Rainier is pretty much the one guy I hope they DON’T pick. Concerns about not being able to catch up with the fastball in high school before you even get to use a wooden bat is too much for me. I’d take Kurtz over Rainer.
I understand the hesitation. Every hitter available after the top 3 has some type of noticeable flaw (and pitchers with general health concerns). In this draft, you either have players who are very low on the defensive spectrum and will have to really, really hit to be valuable, or players with hit tool risks. A hit tool can be improved and often is under proper coaching, but you can’t coach an un-athletic 1B to play a more valuable position.
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