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As for trading Gyorko, I still don’t see it happening…
P-D article**Good to see you again, grays!**
Hope all is well Brian, always nice to get this sentiment from someone other than my dog : ) ha!
Wow.
2B – Wong has all star potential
SS – DeJong the best compared to Cubs and Brewers
3B – Gyorko is everything the Cardinals could have hoped for.
LF – OZuna ia best comparted to Cubs and Brewers
CF – Pham has highest ceiling compared to other two.
RF – Fowler is best compared to Cubs and BrewersRotation –
Martinez only starter who could win Cy Young.
Rest of the rotation the strongest
Rest of the bullpen is the strongest.Pretty nice.
Well, its not quite that rosy.
They gave the Cubs the edge at 1B, 2B, 3B, C, Top of Rotation (citing 3 top of rotation starters to one for Cardinals)
They gave the Cards the edge at SS, LF, RF, Rest of Rotation and Rest of Bullpen
They gave Milwaukee the edge in CF & 9th inning BullpenAnd they gave the Cardinals the edge in RF because they don’t know who is playing there for the Brewers.
Of the 12 different positions they have:
Cubs: 5
Cards: 5
Brewers: 2That would suggest the Cardinals are as good as the Cubs. The problem though is that the areas in which the Cubs are better they are WAY better: 1B, 3B, top 3 in rotation.
I would say that the Cards are WAY better a SS, in LF, and possibly in RF. Kinda evens it up as far as
position players. There’s also a possibility that Martinez, Wacha, and Weaver will compare favorably at #1-3. You never know. JMHO.I was driving, and couldn’t get the pundit’s name. But he said that Jose Martinez’ exit velocity for balls off the bat was in a grouping with JD Martinez and Joey Votto. Just though I’d mention that. Also, I keeping hearing comments that say that JMart will be our first baseman, and Matt Carpenter will be a super sub. If JMaart has a Spring like he did last year, that will probably turn out to be true.
The 3-way comp, although I don’t agree with much of it, is an interesting read. I always like to see what others are feeling regarding the Cards in 2018. Thanks C-2016.
I would say that the Cards are WAY better a SS, in LF, and possibly in RF. Kinda evens it up as far as position players. There’s also a possibility that Martinez, Wacha, and Weaver will compare favorably at #1-3. You never know. JMHO.
Pretty optimistic take bccran.
DeJong way better than Russell? Well DeJong was better in 2017 but will DeJong be Diaz 2.0? Will Russell rebound from off the field issues? Russell was the starting ss for the NL in 2016 so there is a lot of talent there. For now I would say slight edge to DeJong.
Ozuna way better than Schwarber? he certainly was in 2017 but there still unanswered questions. Was 2017 an outlier for Ozuna? Will Schwarber turn out to be the next Dave Kingman or Andre Dawson? The jury is still out on him. For now Ozuna has the edge.
Fowler possibly better than Heyward? Maybe so. Fowler has abetter offensive game but Heyward is the best defensive RF in MLB whereas some on this board would consider Fowler one of the worst OF in the game. I still say slight edge to Fowler.
Martinez, Wacha, Weaver better than Lester, Quintana, Hendricks? I don’t see that one at all. The only advantage the Cards have in the rotation is depth. The Cubs have nothing at AAA although they will probably make another addition before the season starts. Right now the Cubs are a couple of rotation injuries away from a problem.
Pitching
That depth advantage is a lot more advantageous than you’re giving it credit for.
Lester had a 4.33 ERA in 2017 while Quintana had a 4.15 ERA. That’s not very good. They hope Chatwood’s struggles were Coors-related, but it’s not a given. Hendricks had that odd finger injury that happens every time he throws a curveball. I don’t think Montgomery is a quality starter either. He was awful as a full-timer with Seattle, although he is young.
Eddie Butler is not very good and the only pitcher they have in the pipeline is Tseng, who is okay. Their best pitching prospect is Alzolay, who is no better than Ryan Helsley. That’s how far away their pitching pipeline is from ours. Helsley is behind about 5 other pitchers in our system with 3-4 more right there with him. Lange and Little from this past draft seem very Cardinal-like. I like them both a lot but that will be 2019-2020 debuts.
One thing everyone fails to mention too when discussing Wainwright is that he adds nearly a full win of WAR with his hitting. He was worth 2.2 fWAR last year and 3.8 fWAR the year before.
The Cubs bullpen collapsed in the second half, while our’s improved tremendously.
They’ve added Cishek, Morrow, Alvarez, brought Duensing back, and will have a full year of Wilson. We’ve added Gregerson and Leone and have an entire second batch of potential relievers in AA/AAA.
I like our pitching staff a lot more than theirs at the moment. If they add another starter, then it would shift.
Infield
Cardinals 1B WAR, 2017 – 3.9 (5th best)
Cubs 1B WAR, 2017 – 4.1 (4th best)Rizzo is barely better than Carpenter/Martinez
2B is even if you ask me.
Wong 2017 fWAR – 2.1
Wong 2017 bWAR – 1.9
Baez 2017 fWAR – 2.2
Baez 2017 bWAR – 2.9Wong had a .788 OPS this past season compared to .796 for Baez.
Projections:
Wong 2018 fWAR – 2.3
Wong 2018 zWAR – 2.3
Baez 2018 fWAR – 2.2
Baez 2018 zWAR – (not out yet)Wong is a plus-plus defender at 2B that had a down year. He has a +18 DRS and a 2.5 UZR/150 in over 3,700 innings at the position.
Baez has a +14 DRS and a 4.0 UZR/150 in over 1,100 innings at the position.
The Cubs may have the better second baseman overall as Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist can cover the position, while the Cardinals will have either Gyorko, Carpenter, or Garcia playing there. If the Cardinals shift either Gyorko or Carpenter to 2B, they hurt the team at other positions while Happ and Zobrist aren’t penciled into any specific spot as of now with Almora in CF and Schwarber in LF.
Also, Baez is the better player overall given his ability to play an above-average SS. That doesn’t help the Cubs if they don’t use it, given Russell’s presence. His youth is more enticing as well, but, for 2018, and specifically comparing the two as 2Bmen, I believe it’s a toss-up or very close.
DeJong is not likely going to be better than Russell. Russell is a great defensive SS, giving him such a high floor to project onto.
1B – Cubs (not by much)
2B – even
SS – Cubs
3B – Cubs (massive gap)
CA – CubsThey have a big advantage in the infield.
Outfield
LF is a big win for the Cards. Schwarber nearly kills any advantage he has with the stick with his brutal defense. His offense isn’t that promising either.
CF is a massive win for the Cards also. Even if Pham drops off, I don’t see anything resembling a star in Almora. His defense isn’t even that good.
Heyward’s defense supposedly dropped off in 2018 according to UZR (range mostly) If so, he is not going to be better than Fowler in RF. They didn’t even play him in the playoffs last year.
Big advantage to the Cards in the outfield.
I hope you guys are right. I really do. No one wants to see the Cubs lose more than me but I choose to try to be realistic about it. But hey, pass me the kool aid. It must taste good.
Wong has the potential to take a major step forward with several factors imo… But in general I agree with the above.
Carpenter should improve. I dont see him hitting that badly two years in a row. Bounceback year to an extent. Martinez should drop off some. Basically a wash at 1b but yes… Cubs win.
Other than that I think you mostly nailed it. The fact that Fowler and heyward are so close in production says volumes about both.
gscottar: There are some on this forum who can talk this roster into the 27 Yankees. I laugh just reading some of the valuations of the Cardinal players. I’m not sure we can finish second in the division. And, I can’t see this roster winning more games than the Diamond Backs or Rockies.
gscottar
I hope you guys are right. I really do. No one wants to see the Cubs lose more than me but I choose to try to be realistic about it. But hey, pass me the kool aid. It must taste good.
I actually think the Cubs are better than us. Their infield advantage is that much better than our outfield one. Our staff is an advantage right now, but it’s close and it could very well tip in their favor with a Darvish addition. I didn’t mention the bench much, but they have a big-time advantage there too with Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist able to fill in nearly everywhere. They also have Tommy La Stella and Victor Caratini, a couple of other guys that could be starters elsewhere.
Fowler and Heyward are “so close in production” – only if you believe the latter’s defense covers this gap and more.
Last season:
Fowler: .851 OPS, 122 OPS+
Heyward: .715 OPS, 85 OPS+2016:
Fowler: .840 OPS, 123 OPS+
Heyward: .631 OPS, 68 OPS+Heyward’s career-best OPS season, which was way back in his rookie year of 2010, was LOWER than Fowler’s OPS last season.
Heyward had better defend like a shortstop because he is hitting like one! Wait! I take that back. Even Greg Garcia had a higher OPS+ (87). Piscotty’s 88 got him traded, but Heyward is untradeable, even with his supposed elite defense.
Even if they had the same salary, I would take my chances with Fowler.
I agree that id take fowler with salaries equal…
That doesn’t negate the fact that having the two of them so close in production says bad things about both of them.
Very bad things.
Fyi… Fangraphs WAR for heyward last year was 0.9 (aka worse than grichuk who was playing less).
Fowler was 2.7… Barely above average.
In other words… Neither worth the money or even close.
So how are 2.7 and 0.9 “so close”? I still don’t get the Fowler bashing. His contract is what it is. I would not be in favor of the Cardinals paying for him to play somewhere else. His “barely above average” fWAR was 4th among Cards hitters. Only Pham, DeJong and Carpenter were better. Once he was healthy, he was the team’s best hitter the final two months of 2017. If he picks it back up defensively in right, he will be just fine.
Of all the things there are to worry about with this team, Fowler should be nowhere near the top of the list, IMO. Yet he keeps coming up as a perceived problem.
We aren’t as good as the Cubs. Even if we were really even with them they’ll add a starter and be better.
We don’t have a closer. That and the rotation might keep us from being a top 6 team unless the offense is just ungodly and some guys flat out repeat last years production. Plus I’m not sold on the defense being that much better.
I agree Brian. Fowler when healthy was a good asset on offense and I thought he should’ve hit clean up most of the season. I think that Bat plays in OF a lot longer that some people think. I think he can be around a .800 OPS guys at least 3 of the next 4 seasons of his deal. Only question is his health and I think some have reason to worry.
BTW Fowler had career highs in homers and rbi in the lowest about of plate appearances since his rookie season. I know….those stats are meaningless to the crunchers. His defense stunk but will get better now that he’s shifted to a corner. Too bad it isn’t LF where he belongs.
I never said they were close. I said the fact that they are so close says bad things about both of them.
Heyward was horrible. Fowler signed for all star money and barely cleared average (and was under 2 WAR in baseball reference… So below average by that metric).
2.7 WAR is nothing. Doesnt even break 10 million in value. Ode to joy, he is so (not) good and all that.
Wait until he moves to a corner and his comparisons get even harder. He’d have been a lot closer to heywards WAR number as a right or left fielder.
Fangraphs says that 2.7 WAR is worth exactly $21.4M.
I’m surprised that you think his positional adjustment down will eclipse the better defensive stats. Fowler’s range in CF (remember defensive stats are comparative in nature) against his peers in CF has always been bad. I think he would do fine in a corner compared to the other RFers in baseball, range-wise. His arm will still be a problem though in RF.
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