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Where did this 100mil number come from?
If you follow the thread, it was just a hypothetical number.
Cots had the Cardinals at @ 145 million for 2025, and the Cardinals will shed roughly $45 million (Mikolas, Matz, Helsley, Fedde, Maton) in contracts.
Gray’s contract goes up by $10 million, Arenado’s falls by $5 million.
So the Cardinals are around $105 million + (marginal) arb increases.
Trade Contreras or Gray, and the Cardinals can dip below $100 million, if they don’t make any FA additions.
The current 2026 payroll numbers:
Gray- 35M
Arenado- 19.4M
Contreras- 18M
Arbitration- 30M~
Pre Arb- 11.2M~Total- 113.6M
It wouldn’t be difficult to shave that under 100M if they wanted to and yes the 100M number was an arbitrary number I mentioned earlier in the thread, as in this could be the first time the Cardinals got under 100M since 2010. I am not saying they will do it. I said they could do it and I said it out of frustration for the possiblity of trading Gray for no other reason than for profit. Trading him most likely doesn’t help the rebuild much and certainly doesn’t help the 2026 w-l record unless we are psyched up about improving our 2027 draft position.
2 million customers thru the turnstile means $60 per to cover $120 Million. Of course, there is other revenue, and there are other expenses. It seems like there were probably fewer than 2 million through the turnstile this season and likely will be fewer still in 2026. I wouldn’t think that looks too appealing to Our Bill.
Here’s a change…According to the info I sourced, the Cardinals finished in the lower half of league attendance for the frist time since ’80. That’s 45 years, Redbird fans. Here’s another change…Attendance in ’25 was down nearly 1M from as recent as ’23. That’s quite a few over priced hot dogs and cold frosty ones. Changes for ’26? Willie Jr. will petition for some spare change…
If Bill drops under 100mil, he is in a full rebuild and didn’t add back any reclaimed salary. It would be a 180° change of posture, from his pretending to be competitive up to the deadline, again, and again… The gate would crash and Bill won’t allow that. Pretending to be “better than our W/L indicates” is their theme.
As we all know Bloom may be a bust. We have all watched organizations struggle for decades and never figure it out. Draft picks dont pan out. Injuries ruin and derail careers. Bad luck or bad calls cost key games. Trades go tits up and you watch what would have been your future win for another organization
Doing all the right things dues not guarantee success
Five years from now the Cardinals could still be stuck in a rut, going nowhere, and starting over with a new gm.
If Bloom hits everything out of the park – minor league development, drafts, trades, the manager – all of it; the the Cards are serious contenders in three years.
If he’s hit or miss then welcome to more plus or minus .500 baseball with the occasional playoff appearance that isn’t sustainable.
If he’s a bust then we’re the Pirates or the Rockies.
The gate would crash and Bill won’t allow that.
The gate is already crashing, and if attendance drops low enough, the Cardinals will join the large market Marlins and Rays in the welfare line, and collect an additional $70 million in welfare dollars.
Increase revenue $70 million, while dropping costs by $70 million seems like a win for BDW.
You lost me at 145mil, LA. If we round up, Cots has us at 135mil (upthread).
So, jj, Cots has three different numbers for the Cardinals!!!
If you look at their 2025-29 Payroll Obligations spreadsheet, they do in fact, have $135 million listed as their 2025 Projected 40 Man Year-End Labor Relations Payrolls.
However, if you look at the spreadsheet for the year 2025 under Cardinal Payrolls, they have 2025 Projected 40 Man Year-End Labor Relations Payrolls listed as $145 million and the 2025 Projected 40 Man Competitive Balance Payrolls listed as $164 million.
Needless to say, when somebody provides me two different numbers that are supposedly the exact same thing, I start questioning their data and analysis.
LACF said:
Increase revenue $70 million, while dropping costs by $70 million seems like a win for BDW.
Remember there are multiple owners with DeWitt in controlling position. You comment got me thinking about that.
In the corporate world, “stockholder value” and “stockholder return” are often cited when cost cutting occurs. I wonder what the current tone of DeWitt’s conversations with the minority owners is.
On one hand, his stewardship probably made them a lot of money over the years. One could guess that led to little scrutiny. However, as income falls, I wonder if the dynamics are changing.
Then again, probably none of these investors need Cardinals money to pay their electricity and grocery bills…
They saved about $40 million or so in payroll from 2024 to 2025, other than some hires in player development what else did they do, I think they said they were going to upgrade their facilities for development but never heard if they did
As for Cot’s keep in mind that opening day payroll, end of year payroll, and CBT payroll are all different numbers because they are all different things.
osuagec
Here are my predictions as to what the Cardinals will do this off-season.
I’m expecting quite a few trades. Specifically they trade Arenado, Gray, Contreras, Nootbar and Pages
Contreras talking about the team needing to keep a vet got me thinking. If he is traded, they could go and sign Goldschmidt back to provide that ‘leadership’.
Goldschmidt is almost unplayable vs RH pitching, meanwhile our young, heir-apparent 1Bman, Burleson, is .200 OPS worse vs LH pitching.
They would make a really nice platoon and you wouldn’t be blocking anyone with Goldschmidt, like you would with Contreras.
Goldschmidt had a .981 OPS vs LH, while Burleson had an .830 OPS vs RH, for reference, which is nearly in line with their careers.
I’m thinking of the Pujols signing as well that worked out really well for us back in 2022.
Not a crazy idea at all, but with only four bench spots, platoons are very limiting to roster management.
In the corporate world, “stockholder value” and “stockholder return” are often cited when cost cutting occurs. I wonder what the current tone of DeWitt’s conversations with the minority owners is.
On one hand, his stewardship probably made them a lot of money over the years. One could guess that led to little scrutiny. However, as income falls, I wonder if the dynamics are changing.
The one St. Louis family that I know was part of his original ownership group is old money. They are more concerned with generational wealth than day-to-day.
But as a business owner, I would absolutely follow the path I believe DeWitt is on and claim the welfare dollars. MLB has told him that’s what they want him to do, by punishing him when the Cardinals were drawing fans (taking away the competitive balance pick and not giving any competitive balance revenue while large market clubs with poor attendance are getting it).
As a consultant, I would advise my client to take that path.
As a fan, I would hope he would try to compete no matter what level payroll is set at. I have not felt the Cardinals have been trying to compete for nearly a decade.
As for Cot’s keep in mind that opening day payroll, end of year payroll, and CBT payroll are all different numbers because they are all different things.
And end of year payroll absolutely could not be higher than opening day payroll (due to trades), yet according to Cots it was.
I have not felt the Cardinals have been trying to compete for nearly a decade.
IMO nearly a decade seems to be too lengthy of a time but certainly since the departures of Pujols-Molina-Wainwright you seem to be correct. It also seems that the contributors here take money matters very seriously in regards to payroll. There are references to “low hanging fruit” and concerns about the “cap” in a negative way. It is what the state of the organization has com to. The state of having a non-competitive team is something that is very hard to swallow.
The best solution for a quick turnaround would be to change ownership because DeWitt will continue to scrimp until the minor leagues can support any costly acquisitions. How many seasons can that take is presently anyone’s guess.
My guess is this year’s AA standouts will speed through AAA and come up to fill holes as the season wears on.
Sorry, just catching up.
I really hope not. This is a big reason we are where we are. Liberator was rushed to to cover Mo’s keister for Arozerena going on a tear for the Rays after the trade. (FA right handed hitting outfielder with power anyone, lol). Gorman and Walker, both pushed through the system, when they would have been MUCH better off learning to hit in the minors. Heck, Walker is less than a year older than JJ.
Please don’t rush the process. Next year is a loss already. (Okay, maybe Bill opens the wallet and signs Schwarber, Bellinger, Cease and Valdez, lol.) The next year is almost certainly a lockout of some duration. Let the process work.
His five-year contract just started…
He said direct quote he’s in this for the long haul. He’s not doing anything that isn’t in the best interest of the long term health of the organization. He clearly intends to be here longer than the 5 year deal.
Still seeing all the reporting and speculation about Sonny Gray being traded. I just can’t wrap my head around how that helps the Cardinals in the long run. It looks like it costs the owners a lot of money to be able to get a quality prospect. Then, they suffer at the gate with a non-competitive team. Without Gray, the rotation is beyond a joke.
I would think the Cardinals would run the risk of having to rush pitchers to the majors just to field a staff if injuries hit.
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