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Great list. I was comparing to BA and I like yours. Question on Granillo. He’s been on a good streak and not giving up those dreaded HRs. He’s really brouhgt down the BBs compared to last year. Why not more love? Reliever?
And come the AFL, do you think they take Crooks or Bernal? I saw them both on the back fields in Spring Training and although everyone has them ranked pretty close, I see LB well ahead. His consistency as a switch-hitter (almost identical splits this year and last) are very impressive and the power will come as he is huge.I’ll be a broken record on this — and Brian can yell at me.
In the past 15 years, the Cards have only had the benefit of more than 2 career fWAR from TWO players from the International Free Agent market:
1) Miles Mikolas and 2) Carlos Martinez.They got Ozuna of course from Alcántara (and more), and lost others (Garcia, Oviedo and Taveras) with no real MLB production.
Let’s hope someone from this group ends that run of futility. More likely Leonardo Bernal or someone from a previous group.
Reynolds is a very accomplished player in his prime at 27, and has been for 3 of his 4 years (the usual bad Covid year). Career .842 OPS. He is not a FA until 2026. None of the Cards players have done much if anything and Carlson has very bad peripherals (poor hard hit, exit velos, even in 2021).
I don’t like the fact that Reynolds’ defense in CF is suspect, but other than that, he hits RHP very well (a team weakness), he has very good speed, a good arm, and his Away (.851 OPS) stats were better than his Home (.759).
Lock him in and that knocks out concerns about the OF. Between Walker, TON and Noot, the other two spots will be OK.
He had 24 HRs in 2021 (his 8 triples led the league); 27 HRs in 2022. Put him behind Arenado as a switch-hitting #5 hitter and I’m feeling pretty darn good.So, we lost Arozarena and ALcantara. Now, here’s the Cards chance to make up for it. Cards need a guy who will cost prospects but who can be a true star in a playoff game. That’s a guy is the Marlins 24 yr. old Edward Cabrera (6’5″, 220 lb) who struggled in his first 7 starts in 2021 but he was lights-out in 2022 in 14 games. Very good stats in MILB. He has the high K stuff (75 in 71 IP) and decently low BB this team needs and only 44 Hits and 33 BBs in those 71 IP for a 1.074 WHIP. He’s BA’s #69 prospect so what would he cost and tell me why the Cards should not go after him?
I love Bieber and think they have to give up pretty much for him. The Guardians need offense and SB is out of their price range in a few years so the time is right.
Plan B has to be Pablo Lopez who doesn’t have the gravitas or stats but he may be better long term.NigelT , you said — “Mo clearly sees Flaherty as a time traveler from 2019, but whatever he ends up, he is a high ceiling guy. Mikolas is one of the top 20 starters in the national league, Wainwright has a high ceiling, too. The team could always use an ace and a viable back-end bullpen piece, but acting like we have any further gaping holes in the roster is simply chicken little mentality.”
I think the Cards are set up very well offensively. I’m high on Contreras and Walker as big adds to the offense, and feel very good about a come-back by O’Neill.
You and I may just differ on the definition of “high ceiling” or its proper context. Come the 2023 playoffs, and the NL East or West teams march out their Top Two Shut Down Starters (TTSDS), do the Cards have those? Waino wasn’t even used by Oli against Wheeler and Nola (dead arm and he’s older). Jack still has a SLAP injury (shoulder tear that doesn’t go away) and may be traded if he won’t sign. Mikolas had a good year, but he Ks 6.8/9 innings and has a 3.80 FIP. Hardly a force if anything isn’t “on” that day.I’m very pleased with the moves but I think this year is the time to use the prospects they properly held back to find those TTSDS for the Cards if they want to win the World Series. Start with a young guy like Pablo Lopez or maybe Shane Bieber.
Great articles. I stand corrected. I guess I was looking at the comparison of us and other teams too, but these are veryb good. I think I saw one and it makes sense. I hope the emphasis on more signings of guys with high potential at younger age and lower cost over fewer top-guys (not exactly but basically) will allow for more success. Thanks for the prompt and in-depth responses.
Is that true as far as building the underlying program, or just signing the talent? From what I’ve read, they are not limited in spending money on scouts and facilities that they have from Ballpark Village or the new Disney money or Nike $1 Billion endorsement — not all of which goes “on the books,” but which could make that IFA program much more successful. Case in point: The Astros have a lot of scouts/facilities and their top IFAs were signed for very little money: Altuve, Avldez, Garcia and others for less than $30k each. Does that make sense?
That’s very good info I couldn’t pull together as well as you, so thanks! Some very good players and unfortunate they didn’t help win a WS. Maybe Ivan and some of the new crop! What I’m wondering is if you or Blake have considered writing an article about what I consider to be the Cards “missing link” to a WS: a free agency program that matches their “draft and develop” program.
2022: Astros -2 FAs and 7 IFAs = 9
2021:Braves – 7 FAs and 2 IFAs = 9
2020:Dodgers -7 FAs and 4 IFAs = 11
2019: Nats -10 FAs and 2 IFAs = 12
In 2022, I think the Cards had three (Matz, Dick, AP), five if you count Waino and Yadi (not really fair), six if you add Mikolas who was re-signed years ago. None from the south.
I think the Cards draft and develop players better than just about anyone per Baseball America WAR data, especially based on their draft position, but if they don’t change their low-hanging fruit philosophy on FAs and invest even more heavily in the IFA market, the current 1-9 record in the playoffs will continue.Brian. Question (long) on the Cards’ ability and success in International Free Agent (IFA) market. The Post-Dispatch had an article (11/25/22) very critical of the Cards regarding the regular FA signings since 2014, with the Top 7 FAs performing very poorly. I know DeWitt’s logic there (don’t bid on Top Tier FAs.). But where the most recent World Series winners have really had the edge to win the WS — and augmented 1) the Draft (where the Cards excel); 2) Trades (where the Cards are 50-50) and 3) normal Free Agency (noted above) – is with 4) the IFAs. Houston in particular had 7 in 2022 – beginning with Altuve, but also a huge part of their pitching staff — and almost all 7 are stars. The Braves and Dodgers also had major help with their WS from IFAs. Even the Nats and Boston had at least two on their WS teams. The Cards had zero last year, right? And the best I can see over a long period is Arozarena, maybe Nunez and Oviedo, and they seem to have blown it with big spends on J. Machado and $1.5M on Victor Garcia. They certainly seem to have focused on this more in recent years and improved the signings (e.g. Bernal, Cho, Mejia, Ynfante, etc.), but are you the only one who writes about this? And why does this very important part of WS success get SO little attention when it has played such a major part of the success of other teams? Sorry. Just bothers me.
Agree with stlcard25. The new rule that rewards the team with draft compensation for having him on the roster all year and him finishing in the top 3 ROY makes a difference — and he’s a stud. His defense will be fine. He hits the ball VERY hard and that makes up for a lot, and his arm is ideal for RF.
They can’t let him get to FA without getting something of value back, can they?
They can offer him the QO next winter and get an extra draft pick.
Good point, and I’m sure they will, but I hope they can get more in a trade than a player from a pick after Competitive Balance Round B (before the third round), because I’m one who thinks he won’t sign here.
Not only does VerHagen have an awful MLB track record, but he was brought here because of an alleged forte (high GB%) he picked up in Japan that 1) his hip injuries and 2) the change in the shift rule have wholly wiped out (if it was ever there).
In short, he should be given a short leash and then, when he fails as we know he will, cut the dog loose.I don’t disagree about Flaherty being valuable and underappreciated for his value, yet what happens if the negotiations for a longer term contract aren’t going anywhere by the trade deadline and he is performing well as we think he will? They can’t let him get to FA without getting something of value back, can they? Especially when they have long-term SP needs with Waino and Mikolas likely not here next year.
I pay and seldom post. I just like The “Brain” Walton. He and I may disagree here because I think Soto is worth the 176 BTV. Gorman (56), Carlson (78) and Libby (25) – combined BTV 159 would be close enough. No Walker or Winn – period.
I have three premises: 1) The top offense wins World Series 4 of last 6 and 6 of last 13 (most with middling overall pitching, with some very good ones). 2) The Cards have a 1-3 year window to win the World Series with Arenado and Goldy in primes. 3) the ONLY goal is to win the WS.So sure, the Cqrds need a #1 Starter. But they have very good position players who don’t score nearly enough runs, the key reason being lousy 1-2 hitters. No excuse for this team to be 10th in runs scored per game.
Now – as far as how the team would be after the trade, which is all that matters:
They won’t miss Libby after this draft (note: this Draft was based on premises #2-3).
They’d end up with an OF/DHs of: O’Neill, Bader, Soto, Walker (’23), Burleson (’22-’23)
They have Donovan to play 2b.
The top of the lineup has Donovan and Soto — both inasne on base machines who also drive in runs.
Donovan – current .395 OBP (lowest career .377).
Soto – career .427 OBP with best BB rate in MLB and crazy low K-rate;
Follow those two run producers with 3. Goldy, 4. Arenado, 5.O’Neill, 6. Bader/(Walker next year), 7. Edman, 8. Herrera 9. Burleson/Yepez
They save $40M after this year if they let go of all the guys Mo signed this off-season and Waino retires – excpet Matz and cut VerHagen.
The current payroll is still $5-10 million UNDER last year’s, and they have insane new TV and streaming money, so they can get another pitcher in the off-season in free agency.If they win with Soto – the Cards have been able to extend great players’ contracts. And by that time, the numbers will work out. You don’t win World Series without risk. After 11 years, it’s time to take risks.