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September 24, 2023 at 4:05 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #156: Sunday, September 24 at Padres #234507
Yes, it’s the same guy.
Wacha was really effective for the Cardinals the first year or two, then he started having injury issues.
Looks like he has finally found his form, though underlying metrics aren’t as sparkly as his ERA.
September 24, 2023 at 3:51 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #156: Sunday, September 24 at Padres #234503Walker misplays a ball and they call it a triple.
Cardinals now down 5-0 after an error by Lopez.
September 24, 2023 at 3:37 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234501Early on, the metrics say Winn is below average – and clearly below both DeJong and Edman.
To jj’s point, they do recommend looking at defensive metrics over several years.
But heading into 2024, if the Cardinals want to try to compete, they should absolutely acquire a more polished SS to back up Edman.
jj – do you think your eye test might have something to do with confirmation bias?
September 24, 2023 at 3:33 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #156: Sunday, September 24 at Padres #234500Walker with a fielding error in the first.
San Diego jumps out to a 3-run lead with a home run by Soto.
September 24, 2023 at 1:10 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234493Fangraphs has the following ratings on UZR/150:
Paul DeJong: 0.7 (909.2 innings)
Tommy Edman: 1.1 (396.2 innings)
Masyn Winn: -4.8 (258.0 innings)Major league leaders:
Ossleivis Basabe: 27.7 (156.0 innings)
Gunnar Henderson: 13.3 (560.2 innings)September 24, 2023 at 1:02 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234492Everybody says Winn is great defensively. I am not great at looking up defense related stuff, so what is Winn’s defensive WAR as of now?
Statcast Outs Above Average has Winn at -1 OAA, with a 71% success rate versus an estimated success rate of 72%.
For comparison, Paul DeJong was at 9 OAA, with a 78% success rate versus an estimated success rate of 75%.
Tommy Edman is at 4 OAA, with a 79% success rate versus an estimated success rate of 76%.
Dansby Swanson leads with 19 OAA, while Trever Story has the highest success rate at 82% versus an estimated success rate of 77%.
I prefer to look at success rates than OAA, which is a counting statistic.
September 24, 2023 at 12:52 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234491I think they need a backup SS because I think you need two players capable of manning every position competently.
What happens if Tommy Edman gets injured in April or May?
That is why, in addition to fixing the rotation and bullpen, I think they need to bring in a backup SS.
September 24, 2023 at 10:01 am in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234484I recognize Winn is 21 years old.
But if I was the Cardinals, I would not have him penciled in as my starting shortstop on opening day.
The Cardinals would be negligent if they didn’t at least bring in a veteran shortstop to back up Tommy Edman this offseason, while they give Winn time to advance at the plate in AAA.
September 24, 2023 at 9:50 am in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234480Just based on last night’s game, it improved to -0.5.
And just to note, he had been at -0.5 earlier in the week, it went down to -.0.6 after a couple of 0fers. It was two nights in a row that raised him to -0.5, not one single and a walk.
September 24, 2023 at 9:49 am in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234477Small sample size alert. Just based on last night’s game, it improved to -0.5. He is just 21 and is bound to improve. Is anyone not seeing his potential?
I didn’t say he wasn’t going to improve. I did say that I would not overlook his putrid offense. On a rate basis, he has been the worse than Alec Burleson and Luken Baker this year, and they are defensive liabilities.
September 23, 2023 at 11:25 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234465Lawrence shuts them down two innings in a row, and Cardinals win.
September 23, 2023 at 11:20 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234464Intentional walk to Goldschmidt
Single by Walker
Sac Fly by Palacios
Single by Baker
Sac Fly by Knizner5-2 Cardinals, let’s see if they can hold.
September 23, 2023 at 11:06 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234463Cardinals issue two intentional walks in the bottom of the 10th and it works.
September 23, 2023 at 10:39 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #2344623 straight walks for Helsley
September 23, 2023 at 10:36 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234461Helsley falling apart here
September 23, 2023 at 10:32 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #155: Saturday, September 23 at Padres #234460I don’t care if Masyn Winn ever hits over.200 or not. He would be my starter at SS next year. He is by far the best defensive SS we have had since Ozzie.
According to FanGraphs, Winn has been worth -0.6 WAR so far. Over a full year, that would be -3.6 WAR.
September 22, 2023 at 7:07 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #153: Thursday, September 21 vs. Brewers #234394If we don’t play Walker in the field, how is his defense supposed to improve?
1. He needs to dedicate his offseason to learning how to catch fly balls
2. Start him at DH 4-5 times per week, let him play RF 1-2 games per weekBut if the Cardinals reach 10 games under .500 by June, by all means, let him play RF all he wants.
September 22, 2023 at 11:40 am in reply to: 2023 StL Game #153: Thursday, September 21 vs. Brewers #234371especially if we’re committed to playing Walker in RF.
I would argue we should not be committed to playing Walker in RF, we should be committed to playing him as a DH until his defense improves.
September 22, 2023 at 11:38 am in reply to: 2023 StL Game #153: Thursday, September 21 vs. Brewers #234370I do disagree that Edman is worse overall against left handed pitching. He’s definitely better by OPS against lefties and has a lot more history to show that.
I didn’t say that Edman is worse against left-handed pitching. I said he is worse as a left-handed hitter (facing right-handed pitching), which is 75% of the pitchers.
September 22, 2023 at 9:19 am in reply to: 2023 StL Game #153: Thursday, September 21 vs. Brewers #234362Jnevel – Gorman is the only one in that group who has a statistically different OBP facing one type of pitcher versus the other – and he is better facing left-handed pitchers!!!
My post was really to point out that Edman is now and always has been a platoon player. The Cardinals ignore it because he is a switch hitter.
You can argue sample size for the left-handed hitters individually, but how about in aggregate? As a whole, they are significantly better against left-handers than Edman is against right-handers. In aggregate, they have 450 plate appearances against left-handers. The idea they need to sit solely because they are left-handed is preposterous.
If it was their OBP that was suffering, I would say sit them. But it’s not. It’s the power. That suggests that it’s much more flukiness than anything.
Now, Edman’s power disappearance from the left-side of the plate has a reason – because it’s his weak side. He can’t generate the power that he can from the right side. And there is significant evidence to suggest Edman should not be used as anything other than a platoon player.
Dononvan’s power disappearance? That seems much more attributable to small sample size misfortune.
September 22, 2023 at 7:55 am in reply to: 2023 StL Game #153: Thursday, September 21 vs. Brewers #234353There is another conclusion that can be drawn from the data above:
5. Edman should never bat leadoff – both Donovan and Nootbaar always offer superior OBP
September 22, 2023 at 7:39 am in reply to: 2023 StL Game #153: Thursday, September 21 vs. Brewers #234352Tommy Edman is a platoon player. Keep in mind, roughly 75% of MLB pitchers are right-handed.
For his career:
vs RHP: 1782 PAs – .258/.316/.378/.614
vs LHP: 605 PAs – .277/.320/.488/.808Nolan Gorman:
vs RHP: 668 PAs – .230/.310/.456/.766
vs LHP: 109 PAs – .250/.358/.446/.804Gorman is actually better vs left-handers, yet the Cardinals keep insisting on sitting him whenever a left-handed pitcher starts the game.
Brendan Donovan:
vs RHP: 699 PAs – .287/.381/.420/.801
vs LHP: 140 PAs – .259/.381/.285/.666Donovan actually has the exact same OBP vs left-handers as he does against right-handers. His power just falls off a cliff.
Lars Nootbaar:
vs RHP: 731 PAs – .246/.353/.433/.796
vs LHP: 208 PAs – .254/.351/.396/.747There is no statistical difference for Nootbaar for left-handed vs right-handed pitching in terms of OBP, he just loses power against left-handers.
So, what can we conclude from this?
1. The Cardinals analytics department needs to be fired
2. Edman is actually worse at hitting right-handers than three left-handed batters are at hitting left-handed pitching
3. In terms of OBP, you want all three left-handers playing every day
4. Gorman should never sit against left-handed pitchingSeptember 21, 2023 at 8:09 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #153: Thursday, September 21 vs. Brewers #234335Pugs – Winn will not drift down to the Herbel Line, as he already has 16 hits in 94 ABs.
September 21, 2023 at 4:37 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #153: Thursday, September 21 vs. Brewers #234325Well if they don’t want to add anyone to the 40 man right now, they should call up Gomez and see if he can hit HRs at the major-league level.
September 21, 2023 at 4:07 pm in reply to: 2023 StL Game #153: Thursday, September 21 vs. Brewers #234322Man, Bling.
You almost make it sound like the Cardinals made a mistake when they panicked last spring training and signed Mikolas to an extension.
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