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After sluggging 34 homers in less 100 games this year, shouldn’t Jesus Baez be a top 100 prospect, imo top 50 prospect?
Baez is still likely not in my top 10 for the Cards system. He has major plate discipline concerns that I expect may get more exposed at AAA and MLB.
On the HRs, they are drastically up across all the minors due to changes to the ball. After only a half dozen or so guys the prior 5 seasons getting 30 HRs, there are already 12 there today with a decent chunk of the season left.
Baez is only 22. To me he is now our number 4 prospect. Rodriguez, Doyle, and the other Baez bash brother are the only others ahead of him on my list.
Unlike his Baez bash brother, Jesus doesn’t strike out much. Especially with the power he brings to the table. It doesn’t appear he’ll hit for average, but with 34 homers this year he would look awfully in the Lou at third base.
I find it odd that he has 34 HRs but just 16 doubles.
Maybe the next Nolan Gorman. He has 13 homers and 2 doubles in Memphis.
Baez and Gorman have a ways to go but two former Cardinals place in the all time top 5 in the double your pleasure category.
Speaker
Rose
Musial
Cobb
PujolsLet’s look into Baez and Gorman before we lump them together.
Similarities:
High pull rate, high fly ball rate
Differences:
For a slugger, Baez has a very low 16.0% K rate at Springfield.
At the same level, Gorman’s K rate was 26.7%.
Gorman’s MLB K rate was so high, always above 30%, they sent him down to try to flatten his swing. It isn’t working as his Memphis K rate this season is 36.3%, 4% higher than with StL when we was sent down. One point to his credit is that his walk rate is up substantially to a career-high 17.4%.I have Baez at 12 (probably should be 11 as I like him a little better than Cho). The Cards system is just so deep. Baez has some time to work on it, but the walk rate is so low that he’ll struggle even if he has plus power to work with. Still, that he can manage a passable SS bodes well to an eventual transition to 3B. I *think* the best version of Jesus Baez looks something like Nolan Arenado with the bat…good power, lower strikeout and walk rates, generally a decently above average line at the plate. Mid range for me is early career Tyler O’Neill where the Ks and walks just never get in line, other than for a few glorious spans where he looks like an MVP candidate and then falls back to a below average hitter. On the low end…well, he wouldn’t be an MLB hitter at all. Not that my comparisons are bat only, without regard for the glove as I don’t have a strong feel for that yet.
So…should he be a top 100 prospect? I’d put him near the edge of the list. I suspect that we’ll see him pop up on a couple this off-season due to age and his great 2026. I don’t know that I think I’d put him over most of the top 10 I currently have even if he hit 10 more long balls between now and season’s end.
I like what you said, stlcard25. I just have a rankings rub, as you touched upon. If Baez is a borderline Top 10 in this system (to which I agree), then there is no way he can also be even close to the national Top 100. There aren’t going to be 10-12 Cardinals in the Top 100 and I don’t see how (given his limitations) that he is going to pass six or eight Cardinals ahead of him with just a few weeks remaining in the season. Maybe next year. JMO.
P.S. Right now, Baez is no. 15 in the system per both MLB Pipeline and BA. Same with our list here at TCN.
I share the same opinion as 25 and Brian. I have Baez at 11, 12, or 13 (still deciding) although I could see an argument for him as high as 6 or 7. That still keeps him well out of baseball’s top 100. His defense is generally good, but not anything to get excited about. I love the low strikeout rate with power combination but I’m not sure it holds up (at least not anything like where it is in AA) at the MLB. I would project him as an average third baseman with 20 home runs and a solid OBP. That’s valuable and probably better than any other current 3B candidate anywhere near the MLB level. Maybe a perennial 2-3 WAR player. Basically Nootbaar at 3B only hopefully healthier. And frankly, that would be a great outcome for 1/3 of a year of Helsley that we gave up.
I think there’s room for some variation in ratings, but in general I agree with you. As Baseball America mentioned in their podcast posted on here last week, the Cardinals have some high level talent (Rodriguez, Doyle, Bernal, and Baez…if he doesn’t graduate) are almost certainly on every top 100 after this year) and a ton of guys who would go into a top 250. Some of those guys, for one reason or another, will strike a fancy enough to get into a top 100 list. Baez is probably one of those guys. I’d also put Franklin, Fajardo, Mathews, Frias and if you really stretch, Condon and Cintjie into that group.
The Cardinals almost certainly do not have 11 of the top 100 prospects in the game. It’s of course theoretically possible we could look back in 5 years and say they did. But for production, age and potential (tools) it’s highly unlikely for one system to get that sort of billing from any prospect rater. That said, they could have 8 or 9 different guys go onto a top 100 list somewhere. That’s fairly impressive in its own right. I personally would not put Baez in a top 100 but I think he’d be a top 150 guy if I had the time to rank it all out. And I would imagine (no hard data on this) that the 100-150 guys are probably all FV 45ish guys, so the flavor you like is probably not all that significant.
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