- This topic has 2,444 replies, 59 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
As to trading young players with large potential, whose career ceiling is not yet known, I don’t see it happening. They are not going to get burned again.
I stumped for Chris Bassitt last offseason so he’s my example of SP1/2 to be acquired.
Bassitt 3/63mil, 54 avg GSc in 2023
Montgomery 4/80mil, 54 avg
Bryce Miller (SEA), 6yrs club control in trade, 53 avg
Mikolas 2/37mil remaining, 48 avg GSc
Matz 2/22mil remaing, 50 avg in 2023
Thompson, 52 avg game score in 2023Miller for Donovan as the primaries. SEA gets their 2Bman, we acquire a cost controlled SP3. I’m not shopping in the Scherzer / Verlander isle, the pen needs attention too.
Helsley, Gallegos, JoJo, Thompson. Need half a pen. Rom is showing K stuff, may be a pen fit in 2024. Libby might also, in fact, I like having him in attack mode, could be good for him.
Hudson, Pallante, Woodford, King, Lawrence, blah, blah, blah.
Need two good pen arms. Can one come from the minors? Brash with SEA would be a nice get while we acquire Bryce Miller.
Miller and Brash (or Miller and Woo)
for
Gorman and CarlsonDonovan to 2B, Thompson to the pen. I’d probably bad mouth that trade, but I’d also accept it 🙂
Was this year enough to jolt them into it?
If ever there was a year, this would be it. They like keeping prospects/young players, that is there model. The only way to do that is to go into free agency.
Will they strike quickly even if it means overpaying perhaps or wait for the market “to develop” and risk losing out on the prime targets?
I am hoping they go into the offseason with clear targets identified. For instance, Jordan Montgomery should be one of their primary targets. They should call him on Day 1, and try to get a deal in place ASAP so they can focus on another SP via FA and one via trade.
This is, of course, assuming they haven’t burned bridges with him.
First of all there is no way the Cardinals are going to sign three free agent starters unless they are of the Lester, Happ, or Quintana variety and the fanbase would revolt if they did that. I think they will sign one high quality FA (probably a number 2), trade for a young high quality, controllable number 2 or 3, then acquire a veteran back end piece by whatever means they can.
I don’t want to trade Gorman or Noot either but if we want to trade for a young, controllable, high end starter then one of them will probably have to go. I don’t think Edman or Donovan or O’Neill or Carlson or Kiz or Herrera will get it done unless you lump several of them together.
Speaking of pitching. Blake Snell was nails last night in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. One hit thru six innings. I’d say he’s the front runner for the Cy Young.
He is certainly a strong contender. It may come down to him and Justin Steele of the Cubs with Zac Gallen still having a shot.
Interesting that ESPN’s Cy Young statistical predictor has two relievers on top by a considerable margin, Devin Williams and Alexis Diaz, then Spencer Strider third despite a 3.73 ERA and Steele fourth. I wonder if the writers would actually give it to a reliever?
I really liked Liberatore’s performance in middle relief last Tuesday during Waino’s start. I don’t know if he was just pumped up for Waino’s 199th win, or what. He was pitching like he had closer mentality. If he can maintain that attitude, with the stuff he has, IMO, he should be a lock for left-handed relief in 2024. Then- the 2024 bullpen would be Helsley, Gallegos, Romero, VerHagan, Pallante, King, and Liberatore. Also, we still have to see if Wilking Rodriguez can get outs in the Bigs, and if Woodford is a starter or a reliever. I think the bottom line is that, if Libby can be effective in middle relief, there is not a great need for bullpen help.
We’ll see how Thompson does tomorrow night and for the rest of the 2023 season. But his last time out he looked like he had finally found the mojo he’s been looking for, and with that, he should have a rotation spot. So, as it stands right now the 2024 rotation would be Mikolas, Hudson, Matz, Thompson, and possibly Rom. Obviously, what’s missing is a proven top of rotation guy. Snell and Nola don’t interest me much, especially with their (anticipated) Qualifying Offers attached, and their expected demand for 5-6 years. With all the empty seats at Busch Stadium, and surprisingly, at Baltimore’s Oriole Park, and at other MLB stadiums, it looks like Mozeliak is going to have to pull something out of his hat.
I see where Dylan Carlson is going to have surgery. Should one assume this makes him less attractive as a trade possibility this off-season?
Carlson’s trade value has steadily been declining for the last couple of years. He wouldn’t bring much back at all. At this point it might be wiser to keep him and see if he can build back some value.
I still say I would have talked to Clevinger and his agent. I would have tacked on another year or 2 after next year. 12 mill for a starting pitcher of his caliber is a good deal. Maybe offer 14-17 million with vesting for 25 and 26. It would have filled one hole for us.
One player I am very glad we never made a deal for is Stanton. He has been oft injured and played a max of 135 games in one of his last 6 seasons. I am glad he basically rejected/vetoed any deal.
For sure, C27. Stanton would have been nice to have in the lineup that first year, but after that he’d have been an albatross. The Yankees and their financial largesse have to be thinking of cutting him by now.
Bling boy:
You are right and if they are unwilling trade any of those guys then they won’t get anyone worth having. It’ll be another Matz/Leake.
Edman is not at utility guy or a backup player. He should be starting every day at 2B, SS, or CF. That’s not going to happen in St. Louis. Including either Carlson or O’Neill with Edman in a package should be enough to acquire Gilbert from Seattle. If not, then it’s Plan B.
Also, pick up a free agent utility infielder that can play shortstop. Prieto eventually gets his chance sometime in 2023.
Sign Jordan Montgomery. Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Tell Liberatore he’s in the bullpen for 2023. Assign John King and Drew Rom to the bullpen for now.
Get it all done before Christmas.
Enjoy the rest of the offseason.
NLJr. – Good idea to move this discussion to this thread.
I’ll trade anyone who gets us a quality starting pitcher. Edman had a below average year. His biggest asset is versatility.
First of all there is no way the Cardinals are going to sign three free agent starters unless they are of the Lester, Happ, or Quintana variety and the fanbase would revolt if they did that.
Signing three free agent starters is 1) Within the budget 2) The best way to improve the team 3) The best way to hold on to current and future talent
To make this strategy work, you can’t be shopping in the QO aisle (Snell, Nola), and you can’t get in a bidding war for the Japanese pitchers.
You have to be shopping for three of the following:
1. Jordan Montgomery
2. Mike Clevinger
3. Hyun-jin Ryu
4. Michael Lorenzen
5. Marcus StromanThe Cardinals should have $54-65 million to shop with. That is enough to buy three of those pitchers.
Bullpen help comes from trading away O’Neill & Carlson (and Gallegos).
Outfield help comes from signing Adam Duvall.
Replenishing the farm comes from trading away Hudson & Burleson for lower-level prospects.
I agree with a lot of that LA.
Montgomery and Stroman would be on my list of FA’s to target. My trade targets would be Shane Bieber and Clarke Schmidt, with both being attainable without gutting our current roster IMO.
And I have wanted Adam Duvall for years. We can trade O’Neill and Carlson and still have plenty of OF coverage.
Shane Bieber would be a fall back if we cannot sign three free agent starting pitchers.
There are two teams I think the Cardinals can package O’Neill & Carlson together to get massive bullpen upgrades – Detroit & Cleveland. I would prefer to use them for bullpen upgrades.
If you can’t get three starting pitchers in free agency, then yes, use them to get a pitcher of the Bieber/Schmidt variety.
One note on Bieber – he only pitched 128 innings this year due to elbow inflammation.
While that is more than Hyu-jin Ryu’s 49.0, Ryu is coming back off Tommy John surgery, while it looks like Bieber might be heading towards it.
Yes, Duvall is 35.
But he’s fine with a 4th OF role and he had an .829 OPS this year, and has a career .763 OPS. He is also relatively inexpensive, and I would use almost all of the budget to target pitching.
Monty is heading for the postseason just before free agency. Pretty nice timing. He has the opportunity to support his future FA status and the length of contract he’s looking for.
Best case, maybe a 5yr deal? No comp tag and proven.
No extension getting signed with him was a bummer, and 4/100mil is a costly re-visit, but that’s a likely floor, imo.
Monty and Adam combined were 27.5mil for 2023. That’s your ace money going forward, right? With 50-ish available, from 2023?
Maybe they’d look for a pair of 25mil arms? Reclaim a couple arb tenders, shuffle funds and player value in trades for the SP3…
I hope BillyMo gets out there and competes for SP1 & SP2, like they did with Willson.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.