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Except we hung a Not For Sale sign on our ROY hopeful before he even showed up, even though we thought we had a glut of young outfielders and knew we needed controllable high end pitching. I see similarity with the mindset we need to have but don’t.
Agreed that is what the past would suggest. However, the current situation is more dire. So let’s see over the coming week if the urgency level and approach change…
I remember Bill Virdon, who got traded to us while in the minors, then won the ROY in, what, 1954? The very next year, he slumped at the beginning and was quickly traded to the Pirates, becoming a big part of their World Series win at the end of that decade. We have a few all stars, a lot of really decent players, and a few who are limited to DH by poor defensive skills. Pitching is the key, has always been the key, is the key now, and will always be the key. The problem is, pitchers rarely can be absolutely counted on to get through a season without injury. More now than ever. You just have to be lucky enough to have a lucky year with pitchers, then hope for the best.
The Rays are willing to do a Liberatore for Arozarena type deal, but the Cardinals don’t seem to. I mean trading a top prospect who is down low in the system, and therefore has more risk, for a good but lesser prospect higher in somebody’s system, with less risk but also less perceived potential ceiling. In that deal the Cardinals were getting a potential billion dollar lottery ticket with very long odds (because the guy was only in A level) and giving up a potential million dollar lottery ticket with better odds (guy at top of system).
I’m pretty sure Arozarena was traded for off the field reasons more than on field. Still, you won’t get argument from me that Mo has been snakebit lately on trades.
I think our most logical trading partners will be the Yankees, Dodgers, and Mariners. All three have good, young, controllable pitching and are looking for bats and a rental pitcher.
From the Yankees I like Clarke Schmidt and Clayton Beeter.
From the Dodgers I like Gavin Stone and Ryan Pepiot.
From the Mariners I like Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo.
gscottar:
Excellent choices, I agree completely but there is a problem for Cardinal fans and teh front office. They want to send someone from Knizer, Yepez, Burleson DeJong, O’Neill. Those guys will get you about nothing. If you want TOP quality talent you’ll have to choose from Nootbar, Donovan, Gorman, Carlson, and yes, Walker and Winn. Right now I have trouble thinking Mo and Junior will do that. I see them siting on their hands and by way of explanation saying the players we have will just have to play better and not get injured. I hope I’m wrong.
You’re not wrong Nate, except they will do nothing that matters rather than nothing at all. That allows for a story to tell, which some will believe.
I think the Cardinals are very willing to trade Carlson, O’Neill, Hicks, Montgomery, and Flaherty and I believe those five players would bring back some combination of the names I mentioned. Now if we are also willing to part with guys like Edman and Herrera then it will be even easier. I don’t think we will part with Walker, Winn, Gorman, or Donovan unless the players coming back are more substantial than those I mentioned.
gscottar, hopefully Mo will trade everyone on your first list either now or this winter. I agree he will probably not trade any of those on your second list, which is why we will not end up with the high level pitching we would need to be a serious contender. Maybe he will get enough to sqweek us into post season again though.
Next spring I see the laundry list being a couple potentially OKish new guys, Mikolas, Matz, Liberatore, Graceffo, McGreevy, maybe Gragg unless he flames out, and a ragtag handful of other guys. There will also be a couple second tier AAA types, maybe a new 4A guy for depth. It will be a disaster even without injuries. The pen will probably be similar to this year’s with some different names, but no new quality guys. The next Andrew Miller would not surprise me at all.
I would like to see Contreras traded for a pitcher with similar financial totals.
I would like to see Knizner / Herrera behind the plate going forward.
BenFred: Trade rumors around Willson Contrers underscore Cardinals' catching conundrum https://t.co/ShUdjgkcs2
— STLToday Sports News (@STL_SportsNews) July 25, 2023
Did anyone hear Nightengale on 101 Radio today? I did not but someone who did told me that he back pedaled on Contreras. Despite writing that the catcher is “on the block” in his article, he supposedly said today that it was just his personal speculation. If true, that is incompetent.
I don’t have much confidence in Nightengale but Ben Frederickson is usually a decent writer. Perhaps he gave too much credence to Nightengale’s comments.
Regardless, Mo’s recent comments regarding Contreras have not been much of an endorsement. I believe he said that it would be dealt with in the offseason so one could conclude that Contreras could be had by another team if they made the right offer. If not now then this winter.
This could bode well in regards to selling Montgomery and Flaherty.
On @MLB trade market, prices for rental starting pitchers are high — and they should be, because numerous contenders want to add one.@MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2023
I guess I bring this up again but do we really want to trade a great deal of players if it’s hard to trust that Mo will make good decisions on the players coming back? I may feel more confident if Flores has control of the players we get coming back in a trade.
They are paying an entire analytical department to evaluate players, along with trade targets, and if Flores doesn’t also have major input I’d be severely disappointed. Why wouldn’t he with his track record?
Mo has has done such a shitty job in trades recently it makes it hard for me to think Flores has been involved with it at this point.
Mo has has done such a shitty job in trades recently it makes it hard for me to think Flores has been involved with it at this point.
Good point. But it is possible that Flores’s methods and expertise is geared toward evaluating and projecting draft prospect level talent rather than evaluating and valuing players with pro track record and especially advanced level players.
Originally, Flores had only amateur scouts with their focus on the draft. I think the professional scouts now get direction from him, too. They are the ones to evaluate potential trade targets. Two different groups of scouts.
Andrew,
Mo has made about 80 trades in his tenure. About 35% have essentially been inconsequential (traded someone of no value for someone else of no value). About 45% have worked out well – Some of those extremely well (Arenado, Goldschmidt, Rolen coming in, Edmonds, Freese, Mujica, Gyorko, Lackey, and Holliday are most notable). And about 20% worked out poorly (Ozuna, Pham, Greene are most notable with Arozarena TBD). That’s a really good track record. Mo is probably one of the best GMs at trading.
It’s signing external free agents that Mo has a very poor track record with. Aside from a few of the guys out of Japan and just a couple other modest exceptions, MO’s track record here has been really bad.
Jorge Lopez traded from Twins to Marlins in exchange for Floro. His stock sure tumbled. At this time last year some Cards fans were making some truly shocking trade offers for this guy despite his coming out of nowhere. I said then that he would revert and he sure did. Of course I also championed the Matz deal to the point that I said we would be glad we added the extra year lol. It does look like Matz could be turning the corner however… I certainly wouldn’t give him away while paying half his salary like some would like to see
I know Knizner would not net much trade value, but the organization seems to be warming up to Herrera. Herrera has 1 option left, and I would like to see promotions in the minor league catching ranks.
Jnevel,
Without looking it up I doubt if Mo was the GM when we got Rolen and Edmonds. That was probably Jocketty.
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