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No doubt that the price of free agent pitching has escalated recently, therefore, it is theoretically possible for Matz’s contract to end up being above water. In order for that to happen he will need to prove that 2022 was a one time setback in his stint with the Cardinals. I find that to be a very optimistic assumption.
As I have stated before my biggest problem with the Matz signing was that it was just another example of the Cardinals spending free agent dollars on very average and mediocre players, which has burned them so many times in the past. It would be nice to shop on the top shelf occasionally, which is what we finally did this winter with Contreras.
The other thing is that as we go through all of these mental gymnastics and analytical statistics trying to justify the Matz signing I think it is quite possible that Hudson and Liberatore will at least match Matz’s production the next three years, if not exceed it, which should be noted in the $/WAR discussion. Note I didn’t say that Hudson and Libby were more talented, but in my limited understanding of WAR as an accumulative stat, players are rewarded for actually being on the field instead of the IL.
I wish they would move on from O’Neill badly is about it. Something like,
STL GETS: OF- Reynolds (PIT)
PIT GETS: C- Herrera (STL), SP- Hence (STL), 2-3 prospects from 3rd team
3RD TEAM GETS: OF- O’Neill (STL), SP- Hudson (STL)Vs RHP
1. Donovan 2B (L)
2. Reynolds LF (S)
3. Goldschmidt 1B (R)
4. Arenado 3B (R)
5. Nootbaar RF (L)
6. Contreras C (R)
7. Gorman DH (L)
8. Carlson CF (S)
9. Edman SS (S)Vs LHP
1. Edman SS (S)
2. Reynolds LF (S)
3. Goldschmidt 1B (R)
4. Arenado 3B (R)
5. Yepez DH (R)
6. Contreras C (R)
7. Nootbaar RF (L)
8. Carlson CF (S)
9. Donovan 2B (L)DeJong IF (R), Yepez 1B/LF (R), Burleson LF/RF/1B (L), Knizner C (R)
Doesn’t solve the DeJong problem, but I don’t think there is a solution for it this year and just use him as an expensive utility IF. Also doesn’t solve the need for a top SP, but I don’t see Hudson making the rotation if everyone is healthy and I don’t think they make a move for a top SP until next off season when Flaherty, Wainwright, Mikolas, Montgomery are all FA and they are rebuilding the whole rotation and have a better idea on Gorman, Nootbaar, Carlson, Walker, Burleson.
It would be great if we could get Reynolds for a low A pitching prospect and a basket of question marks that we can do without.
blingboy
It would be great if we could get Reynolds for a low A pitching prospect and a basket of question marks that we can do without.
That made me laugh. O’Neill and Hudson don’t have a lot of value if they aren’t the .912 OPS and 2.77 ERA versions of themselves.
Here is my crazy trade idea of the day.
The Pirates get:
Nolan Gorman
Matthew Liberatore
Tyler O’Neill
Ivan HerreraThe Cardinals get:
Bryan Reynolds
David BednarThe BTV site has the Cardinals receiving 86.1 in value and the Pirates receiving 81.7 in value.
Who says no?
The Cards should say no to that. We can’t afford to give up any potential pitching depth if Dewitt is refusing to open his wallet.
I’d do Edman for Reynolds during the season, if Winn looks ready by the trade deadline. We could throw in Woodford as well.
If Edman plays in 2023 like he did 2022, his value will race past Reynolds’ on its own. I’d also argue that Edman is way undervalued on that site. A legit average hitting, plus fielding SS with three controllable years is surely worth more than $30M surplus. Heck, Reynolds is valued like a star even though he’s pretty much Edman of the OF, with more pop and a worse glove.
Tommy has been worth between 13-15 WAR in his three plus years, approximately 4.5-5 WAR/650 PA. Edman will probably make around $20-25M in his arb years, so at 50-55M projected production ($10M/WAR), that means BTV has him valued like a 2 WAR guy at best. IMO he’s easily worth more than that. I just don’t think he’s going to be better going forward than Winn will. Hence why it’s dependent on Winn being ready.
In my proposal getting Bednar would be almost as important as getting Reynolds. Our bullpen would be lights out, which would take pressure off of the rotation. I would also have Reynolds playing LF which minmizes his defensive deficiencies.
I don’t like the idea of offering up the combined potential offensive production of O’Neil and Gorman for Reynolds and Bednar. I’ve seen enough of Reynolds to know that I’d like to see him in the Redbird OF, but not enough to sacrifice those two guys at this juncture. Bednar’s good too, but the Cardinal BP seems pretty solid to me, so I’m not sure he’s a legitimate need. Furthermore, BP arms have a tendency to lose their ability to record outs in a hurry. Boggs, Ryan and Cecil immediately come to mind. I’ll stick with O’Neill and Gorman for now.
They are only going to get so excited about a guy who hit .258 in the Texas League. We counter with “but he’s only 20” and “6 years of control” and “plus glove at a premium position”. And they say yeah, come back when he grows up and proves he can hit high level pitching. So in addition to Wynn they are going to want our top pitching prospect. Graceffo I guess that would be. If we don’t want to do it, somebody else will make a comparable offer.
BTV doesn’t just set their trade values by WAR. They start with WAR, and adjust for projection, inflation, yrs/control, injury, roster risk, market adjustment, and salary. Then in the summer, they boost trade values based on availability.
Edman may be worth a lot with a high WAR, but there are a lot of good shortstops in the league that are in their prime and not a lot of demand amongst the 30 teams.
I couldn’t endorse trading Gorman at this time.
O’Neill I could part with in a fair trade.
Trading Liberatore now is selling low.
Herrera I don’t know enough about to have an opinion other than he is adequate depth.STL shouldn’t.
forsch31…I have seen him a couple of times. His stats are not impressive but his trade value is reasonably high.
I’d trade anyone on the team in the right deal. I don’t care how much I like the player. And I certainly would not trade a player that might threaten my favorite player. That’s just silly.
No one really wants to trade top prospects (I don’t) but you have to give up quality to get quality. We complain about the Cardinals being one and done in the playoffs so maybe we need to get out of the comfort zone a bit.
We should probably consider the possibility our top few prospects may never be worth more than they are right now. If you look at our team, we have the whole meat of the order, Goldy, NA and Contreras came from other organizations. So did Mikolas and Montgomery. And Matz. We have sucked at developing the impact players. That raises the possibility that what we think are our impact players of the future may not pan out quite like we hope. So as far as value goes, maybe a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.
We have sucked at developing the impact players. That raises the possibility that what we think are our impact players of the future may not pan out quite like we hope. So as far as value goes, maybe a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.
That’s one way to look at it. Another is that we’ve generally not gotten impact talent in the draft for some time until the last few drafts. Dylan Carlson is the only guy I can think of that was a highly rated position guy recently, and he was considered a stretch when drafted in 2016. The latest batch have just started to graduate to the big leagues, and some certainly will not pan out. It’s also possible that we have 4-5 starting position players and a star or two ready to go to supplement Goldy, Arenado and Contreras as impact bats.
For me, unless we are trading for an impact arm, I’m content to sit tight and let it play out before we go giving away more potential All Stars like we did in the Ozuna trade. The lineup is good, the rotation is fine. We can readjust at the deadline.
“unless we are trading for an impact arm, I’m content to sit tight and let it play out,….”
This 🔼
The last time the lineup had a LH thumper was 2018 Matt Carpenter.
I’d put a premium on keeping our LH and switch hitter bats, to find out what we have. O’Neill and especially Yepez as trade bait from the lineup.
I was making the case to be made for trading our top prospects. I don’t think there is any chance we will. I think Mo is gun shy about that. He will only trade guys whose ceiling is pretty well known. Bader was an example. O’Neill is an example. Edman probably. Donovan. Yepez. Not that he will, but he could be confident in knowing what he was trading away.
I could envision a trade prior to the start of the ’23 season involving either O’Neill or Yepez, but not the other two guys you mentioned, Bling. Edman and Donovan are too central to the Redbird overall plan of repeating as winners of the NL Central. If the team happens to tank in the first half, that would change things, but right now Eddie and Donnie are primary components looking ahead to the season.
Well yeah, but what happens if DeJong and Gorman hit the ground running, blasting taters, putting up crooked numbers all the time, and by the end of May Edman and Donovan are scratching around for playing time? Or one of them at least. What if its a week from the deadline and Winn has been on fire in Memphis all year? Complementary pieces always turn out to not be as indispensable they might seem because there is always another one around.
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