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Mediocre is better than league-worst, but one could argue that if everyone has it, it isn’t notable.
and did not win one single game in the playoffs. You like that year after year fine. But stop preaching to those of us that find it totally underwhelming. It isn’t whining it is the right to express our opinion to which you have the right to disagree with.
Who says no?
Ha! Too funny!
Flaherty at 1/5mil is a debatable risk/reward expense, but Sale at 2/50mil for PDJ at 1/11mil would be a Christmas present from StL.
Sale is without a doubt one of the best examples to bolster the argument that it’s an inane practice to sign pitchers to multi year contracts for exorbitant amounts of money. For 7 consecutive seasons he placed 6th or higher in the AL CYA voting and looked to be a safe wager for Boston. I would have loved to have seen him wearing a Cardinal uniform when the White Sox were looking to trade him in the winter of ’16. The Red Sox got two great seasons out of him and then the evil baseball gypsies intervened as soon as they signed him long term for all that money.
Who says no?
Ha! Too funny!
Flaherty at 1/5mil is a debatable risk/reward expense, but Sale at 2/50mil for PDJ at 1/11mil would be a Christmas present from StL.
Depends on health. If healthy Sale has the potential to be elite. PDJ does not.
The beloved BTV site has PDJ with a value of -7.1 and Sale a value of -13 so the Sox would have to throw in a little cash.
I’m not sure how trading our only starter signed for 2024 (who’s reliably made the vast majority of his starts 4 of the last 5 years) for a guy who’s nearly guaranteed to miss time would help us.
I just don’t think Matz is very good. Sale could be an ace. It’s worth the risk, if Boston eats enough of his salary. I see Graceffo and Liberatore in our rotation next year, at some point. Montgomery, and Possibly Mikolas should be resigned too.
Besides, we have trade chips like Yepez and Gomez that can be dealt for starters also.
How about Dejong and Matz for Sale, a prospect, and cash?
If the Sox don’t want Sale then they are not going to want Matz either.
The MLB Trade Value site has DeJong valued at -7.1 and Matz at -12.4, so that is -19.5. Sale is valued at -13, So the Cards would not get a prospect and cash, and would have to throw in somebody worth 6.5. Guys in that range would be Hudson or Woodford.
I’ll be the first to say I was disappointed by Matz first year due to injury and am concerned that the “impingement” could cause him to have future injury due to adjustments. But…he had injury issues early in his career that had folks just about write him off but had good seasons with very little injury in the 4 years before the signing. I pretty much expected him to miss one of the 4 years he was signed for as that is almost expected anymore. Just hoping this first year is the only year. Being a mid market team, we need to hit big on signings like this and I am still confident he will perform positively over the final 3 years and 39ish left on his deal. However, with the way salaries are going up, I still feel the rest of his contract can be an asset
I’m hoping too MrP. If we assume that the trade value site’s algo predicts Matz will underperform the remaining 3 years by $12.4M, then he will provide roughly $27M, or $9M per year. What kind of a starter would 3/27 have bought this winter? Maybe that’s what we can expect.
If Matz is a -12.4, from his 33mil salaries, then his field value is 20.6 over three season, 6.9mil per.
There’s not really a good comp for a starter getting a 3 year deal at such a low AAV. Guys are either getting 1 year deals at $1-5M or $10M+, and guys on multi year deals are always getting $10M+ per year. So the correct answer is probably “guy coming back from Korea.” However, on a one year deal the two guys closest to that value with any shot to start are Mychal Givens (mostly a reliever now, solid 2022 stats), who got $5M, and Kyle Gibson (poor 2022 but decent previous track record), who got $10M.
I don’t think there’s a way that either of those guys projects better than Matz going forward.
Fangraphs has Matz 2022 field value at 5.2mil.
Matz signed for 4/44mil. Deducting his 2022 value of 5.2mil from his total contract amount, leaves 38.8mil of unclaimed value, to break even.
He needs to post his next three seasons of control at about 13mil of field value per season.
13mil per is not a unreachable goal when you consider that Q was worth 14.5mil post-deadline, and Montgomery added 10.8mil. What Matz will have to do is show up for work, and be effective overall.
Hudson had a 2022 field value of 8.1mil over 140 IP, so Matz can’t just show up for 150 IP and call it a day.
Matz can’t just show up for 150 IP and call it a day.
150 IP out of Matz is a tall order. 30 starts at 5 IP per. All we can say is he looked good an inning at a time to close out the year and nobody has any idea how his shoulder will respond to a starter’s workload.
Matz could also raise his level of effectiveness, so he’s not just IP dependent. Wacha for instance threw 127 IP and provided 12mil of field value last season.
You also have to account for rising $/WAR value. This year’s free agent market has made it clear that the value per win has risen significantly with the new CBA. $11M/yr in 2021 is worth a lot more than $11M/yr in 2023 and beyond. Basically Matz needs to provide 1 WAR per year, perhaps even less, to break even. If he breaks 100 innings per year, I’d say there’s a high probability of meeting it. Put me down for about 5-6 WAR for him the next three years.
On another note, it’s generally amazing how much we have been trained to look at market value contracts with disdain. If a guy is paid basically what he’s worth, we recoil with disgust. If a guy gets shafted by the system and we can enjoy his services for peanuts on value, we rejoice. If, God forbid, a guy like Matt Carpenter takes a way below market deal for half his career and performs like a star, then gets a pay bump and falls off, we want him run out of town in a rage.
Funny lot, we serious sports fans. Team owners surely love folks like us.
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