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Well actually my assessment of Matz is not based just on 2022. It isn’t like 2022 was the first time he got hurt. He has had numerous injuries through the years. The bottom line is that we need him to duplicate his 2021 season (walk year go figure) but that is a big if.
Well actually my assessment of Matz is not based just on 2022. It isn’t like 2022 was the first time he got hurt. He has had numerous injuries through the years. The bottom line is that we need him to duplicate his 2021 season (walk year go figure) but that is a big if.
We went over this before, but Matz had a pretty good run of health leading into 2022. And for $11M a year he needs to be about a 1.5 WAR/yr pitcher at most to be worth the salary. That’s such a low bar to clear. He was at 0.7 in his limited time this year.
If a pitcher, or anyone who uses their arm in an overhead movement, suffers impingement, this is what it means.
There is the acromion bone at the end of the collarbone on top of the shoulder. There is the rotator cuff, which is tendon, and wraps around the upper end of the arm bone and attaches it to the collarbone. Between the rotator cuff and the acromion bone is the bursa, which lubricates and allows the rotator cuff to slide past the acromion bone.
When the arm is raised, it reduces the space between the rotator cuff and the acromion bone. Depending on the exact way a shoulder is constructed, and the particulars of the over head motion involved, the space can become narrow enough to impinge on the bursa, causing it to become inflamed. This results in pain, loss of strength and inability to raise the arm. This is shoulder impingement.
When this injury occurs, rest will allow the inflamed bursa to get better. But then what? Since the same motion will cause the same injury again, there are two choices. One is surgery to remove some or all of the acromion bone. The other is to alter the overhead motion so that the space between the acromion bone and the rotator cuff does not become small enough to impinge and inflame the bursa.
Matz did not have shoulder surgery. This means he must modify the overhead motion. When a pitcher does this to counter impingement, there will be the question of whether the modified motion will adversely affect performance. If it does, the pitcher either learns to be effective with the modified motion or starts to cheat back toward the prior motion, which causes the impingement to recur. Often a pitcher who alters his arm motion for any reason tends to gravitate back toward the prior motion anyway. There is also the possibility that the new modified motion will reveal a vulnerability elsewhere and a different injury will crop up. This is known as an injury due to compensating for a different injury and is not uncommon. So for these reasons, either performance issues or recurrence issues or new injury issues are present forever. Shoulders are like that, and its the reason why Matz, Hudson and Flaherty are all high risk and have a good chance of some kind of health or performance problem coming up.
We went over this before, but Matz had a pretty good run of health leading into 2022. And for $11M a year he needs to be about a 1.5 WAR/yr pitcher at most to be worth the salary. That’s such a low bar to clear. He was at 0.7 in his limited time this year.
According to Baseball Reference he was actually at negative .4 WAR for 2022.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matzst01.shtml
There have been a couple of seasons where he stayed reasonably healthy but a majority of the time that has not been the case.
2010 Tommy John Surgery
2015 Muscle Tear
2015 Shoulder Spasms
2016 Elbow Bone Spur
2016 Shoulder Impingement
2017 Elbow Inflammation
2017 Elbow Lunar Nerve Irritation
2018 Elbow Flexor Strain
2020 Shoulder Discomfort
2021 Covid 19
2022 Shoulder Impingement
2022 Knee InjuryYou are right in that his salary is probably in line with a back end free agent starter but what frustrates me is why are we signing back end free agent starters to a 4 year year deal when we grow them on trees in the minors? That $44M could have been allocated elsewhere.
I wonder if Mozeliak could pry this up-and-coming star away from Pittsburgh? Tyler O’Neill, Dakota Hudson, and a young pitching prospect? Cruz would be a tremendous number 3 hitter in the Cardinal lineup, and would place the team in great position to start a rebuild if the team doen not gel and show improvement this summer.
Doesn’t Masyn Winn have the potential to be as good or better SS than Oneil Cruz in one more year? Don’t the Cardinals already have enough middle infielders as it is? And the proposed trade would make the outfield thinner, which is the group that arguably needs more reinforcement.
According to Baseball Reference he was actually at negative .4 WAR for 2022.
I saw that. Fangraphs has him at 0.7 and Baseball Prospectus at 0.5. Given the on field results, I’m more tempted to lean on those two. BRef is becoming less reliable, to me. Matz had two blow-up games that made all his stats look wonky. BRef majorly penalized him for it. Despite that, most of his stats except ERA were in line with or better than his typical standard.
Anyway, so you’ve shown that he’s been pretty healthy for 4 of the past 5 years (I don’t count COVID as that has nothing to do with injury). I showed before that he’s top 30 in IP over 2018-2021. He’s still 61st over the last five year span, even with a rough 2022. I don’t think it’s any fairer to compare stats from 5+ years ago than it is to say we should sign Syndergaard or Cmart because they were top end starters that long ago. Narratives change.
As for why they’d spend to sign Matz, I think the answer is obvious. We currently have 0 starters besides him for 2024. The cost was minimal…not even back end starter money. Andrew Heaney, a true back end starter with all the ups and downs, got 12.5M a year and could make more in bonuses. I’d also argue that our system does NOT produce loads of starting talent, at least not recently. When was the last starter we actually produced for our team? Flaherty? Hudson? They came up in 2017/18…since then it’s been bumpkis. We have some hopes for guys like Libby, Graceffo, McGreevy and Hence, etc. We would need multiple of them to hit and a couple signings just to fill out a rotation in 2024.
The process of the Matz signing was good. The results haven’t been what we’ve hoped for yet (although the improved K/BB gives some positive momentum for 23)…but I still think it’ll prove a solid signing.
I would gladly put Woodford, Liberatore, or Hudson in our number five slot in the rotation over Matz and spend his salary elsewhere. Since we seem to be fine shrugging and chalking up 2022 as a mulligan let’s hope he starts earning his pay this next year.
So you’d be happy to have 5 rotation spots to fill for 2024? You must have more faith in the market than I do. Of all the deals we’ve signed lately, Matz hardly seems to be the worst. In fact, I’d be hard pressed to think of a better use for his salary over the next few years on the open market. $11M doesn’t go very far.
So you’d be happy to have 5 rotation spots to fill for 2024?
I don’t recall saying that but I do believe that we have internal candidates that can produce the same WAR as Matz at a fraction of the cost.
Nor am I currently worried about the 2024 rotation. Matz will obviously be in it, but even if he wasn’t, we have other options.
Stop worrying about the 2024 rotation – The Cardinals have a lot of resources they can spend on the 2024 rotations and not a lot of other ways to use them https://t.co/HwqoLNbcm8 pic.twitter.com/Ow5AD3JIb9
— viva el birdos (@vivaelbirdos) December 22, 2022
So you’d be happy to have 5 rotation spots to fill for 2024?
There is Graceffo, McGreevy, Liberatore, Thomas, and Paniagua later in the year. They will be fine. Get out your chisel and write it in stone. Mo can fill in around the edges as needed.
I don’t recall saying that but I do believe that we have internal candidates that can produce the same WAR as Matz at a fraction of the cost.
I believe you’re wrong, as we have five straight years of data to the contrary. Yet…I’ll accept that it’s one way to answer the question. We’ll just have to agree that the legitimate data speaks differently to us.
As for 2024, the article is correct in that the Cards will find a way to piece together a starting 5 then. I’m hopeful that we sign a #1 to front it (Nola, please) or trade for one (Bieber).
I wonder if Mozeliak could pry this up-and-coming star away from Pittsburgh? Tyler O’Neill, Dakota Hudson, and a young pitching prospect? Cruz would be a tremendous number 3 hitter in the Cardinal lineup, and would place the team in great position to start a rebuild if the team doen not gel and show improvement this summer.
I am not sure why Pittsburgh would want to trade Cruz. He is exactly the kind of player that a rebuilding, small market club wants on their roster.
Needing 5 starters in 2024 will be a blessing in disguise! Maybe it will force management to buy a number 1 starter and trade for a number 2! If that happens without even seeing who they are our staff in 2024 will be better than the one we are gonna have in 2023! IMO!
I am not sure why Pittsburgh would want to trade Cruz. He is exactly the kind of player that a rebuilding, small market club wants on their roster.
Agreed. They might be plied if we were offering them a couple young, controllable players…like Gorman and Nootbaar. But that would be an overpay. I’m not sure that Cruz is going to pan out greatly, anyway.
O’Neill and Hudson are the last guys Pittsburg would want. On the cusp of getting expensive. Limited time under control. Questionable ability to stay on the field and be productive. Hopefully Mo is keeping an eye out for a chance to move them advantageously. Same with PDJ and with Flaherty before he walks at the end of the year. We can’t expect much in return, but maybe move them as part of a multi player deal.
I’m not sure we are going to make a rotation upgrade, so I would really like to see us upgrade our bullpen. Perhaps add an l looked the and righty arm. Kind of wished we could have kept Reyes, but if he isn’t available until June or later I understand the reason.
Chafin simply makes too much sense. I can’t believe the Cards haven’t signed him already. Good K rate, good BB rate and piles up ground balls. About the only concern is the diminished fastball velocity the last couple years, but on a one or two year deal he should be fine.
I wonder if we’ve plowed Cabrera right into the ground. He got to where he couldn’t K anyone the second half and then finally demoted. He, Reyes and GG have been pushed hard over the last 3 seasons?
I like the lefty Thompson in a 30 IP kind of reliever usage, but Chafin is more of a 60 IP high leverage arm.
Romero had both BB and HR% issues with us in his brief STL debut, but I hold hope he can be more.
For 2023 Chafin could really help solidify us vs lefty bats in late innings.
It seems like most relievers have a short effectiveness shelf life. That they were effective 2 or 3 years ago means little. I wouldn’t look back beyond 2022.
Anyone would love to have Cruz, but he is exactly the kind of player the Pirates need to build around. The only player Pittsburgh will be moving is Brian Reynolds. He has some market value and should bring some more good prospects.
Still at some point, you gotta keep your best players. It is tough to retain your fan base when you are perpetually five years away from contending. In the type of agreement the Cardinals sometimes do, they did work a deal to keep KeBryan Hayes around. For their sake I hope he is not another Paul DeJong.
We need to look into Lucas Luetge that the Yankees DFA a couple days ago. Has put up solid numbers the last couple years but he doesn’t throw hard. That could work in our favor as it would be a change of pace from our flamethrowers. Only a few more days before he has to be traded. Yanks DFA’d him to clear a roster spot so we would have to offer someone down on the farm. I’d part with someone like Baker or a toolsy lottery ticket that isn’t hitting
He has a reasonable bb/rate as well. Could be a much cheaper option than chafin. The Cards and Yanks have lined up on a few trades of late so they get along
I honestly wonder if Casino Jon just types everything his “sources” say without ever thinking or looking into how absurd what he is putting his name on. To suggest the Red Sox rotation is a positive ignores their staff’s dead last no. 15 ERA ranking in the AL last season. Their supposed depth didn’t keep their pitching from being awful.
P.S. That doesn’t change Sale’s injury history and big contract the Sox may want to get rid of, but c’mon now…
Teams are checking on Chris Sale’s availability. Red Sox are not looking to trade any of their starters but view rotation as an area of depth and are at least willing to listen, and consider. Sale does have complete no trade clause so he can veto potential deals.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 25, 2022
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