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GS,
Re: Bumgarner
Page 28 this threadI recall that conversation. Madbum was compared to Lester. I think Madbum would be an upgrade over Lester, unfortunately, he is owed a lot more money. The Dbacks would have to kick in some cash.
You are probably right although I would rather have him than O’Neill. O’Neill just can’t stay healthy.
As I see it there just aren’t many elite level starters who are going to be available at the deadline. There will be some above average starters though. It will probably be easier to find high end bullpen pieces.
I am going to throw out a couple of names to see about thoughts for SP acquisitions.
Cole Irvin: Oakland A’s
– He’s 28 and will hit arbitration after next year. He’s been a solid lefty starter when healthy and is having a good year so far. Probably would cost a little bit in terms of prospects, but the A’s have made no secret they are selling everyone off. Might be a better bargain than Montas.Merrill Kelly: Arizona Diamondbacks
– He’s 33 and on a losing team and is controlled through 2024 with $8.5M in each of the next two years due and a $1M buyout or $7M option after that. He’s a solid, but unspectacular starter. I am sure Arizona would be happy to unload him for minimal prospects if they can’t unload the money.Patrick Corbin: Washington Nationals
– Complete buy-low option. He’s due a ton of money over the next two years, which would no doubt need to be absorbed by Washington and shouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects. Frankly, he just needs to get out of DC. His career is circling the drain, but maybe a change of scenery could do him well. I think Maddux is a better fit for guys like Corbin than he is for younger pitchers. He seems to work better with veterans and lengthy history. I think Yadi works better with those types of arms, too. This guy would be a complete flier and should not be considered a full-proof option. Seems like a buy-low and if he continues to struggle, see if he can find some success in the bullpen ala David Price.Blake Snell: San Diego Padres
– This would have to be a pure salary dump. I’ve read the Padres are very sensitive to the luxury tax and will be right against it next year. They already have six starts with the emergence of Mackenzie Gore. Snell has not performed well for the Padres and they might be willing to sell low just to get the money off the books. But, the Cardinals would need to absorb the remainder of his $13M salary this year and $16.6M next year. He is 29 this season and appears his Cy Young will a complete aberration. He’s settled into about a 1 to 1.5 bWAR pitcher and that’s about all you might get from him. That said, getting a 1 bWAR SP in the Cardinals rotation could go a long way considering how bad the rest of the rotation has been outside of Wainwright and Mikolas. And securing a guy to fill a rotation spot given the uncertainty of Wainwright could be a nice idea.I posted this in a different thread, but it fits here better.
Obvious sellers: BAL, DET, KC, OAK, WASH, PIT, CHC, CIN, COL.
Then there are the borderline teams that could sell, but they are still relatively in the hunt, expected to compete with the current roster, or multiple big contracts, and probably just retool a bit and try again next year but not necessarily going to sell. LAA, AZ, CHWS, TEX. I would say LAA should sell, but I don’t see their ownership doing it and still trying to compete with Trout and Ohtani, but pending FA could possibly be sold, but they are going to want major league ready returns I’m sure. The only reason I included CHWS here and not buyers is they have a good starting staff that is controlled and Cueto is a pending FA and selling him, but buying elsewhere could be an option because they aren’t out of it yet.
9 sellers
3-4 stuck in the middle
17-18 buyers (depending on where CHWS fall)The price for anyone is going to be high. The demand is much higher than the supply, especially when you factor those 9 teams are selling for a reason…they aren’t good.
Kylmss,
Irvin and Kelly seem like the kind of starters Mo might be interested in. Decent stats, will keep you in the game, low cost.
Corbin and Snell seem too risky to me. They both have strong pedigrees but have really struggled the last year or two. Not low cost.
Another name to keep an eye on is Martin Perez of Texas. He is having a fantastic season but is a rental.
Cards667,
Your list looks accurate to me, but as it pertains to the Cardinals, I would remove Chi, Cin, and Pit from consideration. I just don’t think they would trade with the Cards unless it was a massive overpay. And Col might need to be removed also. I suspect they are not in a hurry to trade with us again anytime soon.
Right, so then the list to buy from is down to 3 or 4 teams. Unless you can convince CHWS to deal Kopech in a deal for O’Neill, which I don’t see happening, or Lynn back maybe, or AZ does sell off and then Kelly or Bumgarner come into play. You know Mo wants Kelly BAD, he played in the KBO. I’ve said it before and will keep saying it I’ll take Corbin over Bumgarner right now. Both 32 and Corbin stats are better, and coming off 2 starts where he’s looked like the old Corbin. I think Washington would eat quite a bit and probably take DeJong and VerHagen to help eat some more of the money. They are in a position to be able to give DeJong a chance and have an opening at SS. Give them DeJong, VerHagen, Baker, low level minor leaguer and get Corbin, $30-45 million (mostly covering that 2024 salary), and a minor leaguer (more money they eat the less of the “prospect” I’d want back with him) and they can save $10-25 million over the next 3 years. They could sell Bell and Cruz, have 2 1B in AAA that are older but hitting and give them chances and give Baker a chance at not being blocked.
I know I’d like to see this team healthy and have some pitching something like
1. ??? (I don’t know if a #1 is available though)
2. Mikolas
3. Corbin (L)/Bumgarner(L)/Kelly/???
4. Wainwright
5. Matz (L)
I don’t know where that leaves Hudson, maybe included to get a #1.1. Pallante
2. Hicks
3. Thompson (L)
4. Fernandez
5. ??? (Another proven reliable arm)
6. Cabrera (L)
7. Gallegos
8. HelsleyMay be asking for to much, and maybe the deal with Washington isn’t close, but they’ve got to do something to be more consistent.
A couple of quick notes from an eye test, I was able to make it out to the Twins at Sox games on Monday evening and yesterday afternoon. Yadi’s best friend Cueto (insert sarcastic comment here) pitched Mon and Lance Lynn yesterday with Joe Kelly pitching in relief Monday. These are obviously just untrained eye test observations of course, but I watched them all very closely after moving up quite close to the field (and I made it on TV supposedly). If the Sox fall farther back, they might actually move a few pieces.
1) Cueto looked really good, I know he had issues with the Cardinals in the past, but if that’s behind everyone, he could definitely help, and the money isn’t a major factor.
2) Lynn was only making his 5th start of the year, so a bit rusty and he didn’t look great, and with his contract he wouldn’t cost much if anything in prospects. Roughly 9M left in 22, 18.5 in 23 and a 1M B/O for 24. Feel free to correct me, but I don’t recall any major issues when he left?
3) Kelly is a HARD pass, he couldn’t hit a bull in the butt with a hand full of corn. Throwing pretty hard, but I would not be interested.
It will be interesting to see if the White Sox sell or not. LaRussa isn’t getting any younger.
I have never been a big Joe Kelly fan. He is a complete live wire, both on the mound and off of it. I would love to have Lance Lynn back but that would be a definite white flag move by the Sox. Cueto might be an interesting rental, but as you mentioned, he does have a history with the Cards and it isn’t a good one.
Corbin and Bumgarner are similar but I think I would lean towards Madbum. His remaining salary owed is more manageable, he has an impeccable playoff pedigree, and I think he would be a good fit in the Cardinal clubhouse. I believe he and Waino are buddies. He is kind of a LH version of Waino actually.
Of course I think we all know that Mo is going to claim that our starter acquisitions at the deadline are going to be Matz and Flaherty, which is why he will probably try to get some kind of bullpen piece, if he does anything at all. His activity at the deadline the last 8 years has been very minimal.
I wouldn’t be mad about Mad Bum, just think I’d prefer Corbin, especially if Washington is willing to eat DeJong and VerHagen and a lot of Corbin money, which they seem more likely than AZ to do so. But I think they need more than just 1 of them or any middle rotation guy right now. But I’m really afraid what the cost of trading is right now and the prospects to pick anyone up could be way more than what any fan is going to want to see.
Kelly form AZ for the rotation seems getable…but i worry we have done too many deals with AZ, Kelly and Weaver havent quite worked out…they may feel like they need to get more as they didnt get enough for Goldy
Michael Fulmer from DET for the pen is worth trying, and Detroit knows they are rebuilding
I still think Blackburn from the A’s is worth attention…he’s having a good year so you are paying a but for a late breakout…BUT he is 28 so no spring chicken…he has 3yrs of ARB left after this and is cheap so you are gonna pay a bit more for him but he looks a late bloomer to me
I’d prefer a bit of control if i’m giving up good prospects
Perez is interesting but a rental like him will cost too much…if we go rental it will be for old vets like last year IMO or straight salary dumps
For me…Blackburn and Kelly plus Fulmer rights the ship i think…but i imagine we may only get one rotation piece and they will not help the pen at all
Yep..
BenFred: Why trading for Madison Bumgarner would make sense for Cardinals https://t.co/vmIwQLPnm3
— STLToday Sports News (@STL_SportsNews) July 7, 2022
As much as I’d like to see us add MadBum, I seriously doubt the FO takes on his salary.
Yes, it would be ideal to send PDJ salary to ARI, but I think we are kidding ourselves.
If ARI did take on PDJ, I strongly believe we would hate the players sent. ARI doesn’t have to move MadBum. This isn’t the Arenado trade w/COL needing to move the player and salary.Kelly would be an interesting option. He could show improvement moving to more pitcher friend Busch Stadium, and the very good Cardinals defense. Maybe some combo of Dejong, Baker, Rondon, or Nootbaar might make it happen.
I will throw two more SP options worth considering.
Brad Keller: Kansas City Royals
– Has one more year before free agency and the Royals are clearly going nowhere and likely don’t view him as a long-term fit for their needs. He’s solid, but unspectacular, which is basically all the Cardinals need at this point.Chad Kuhl: Colorado Rockies
– He’s about to turn 30 and will be a free agent after the year. Rockies have no need for him and he might fit in well as a 4/5 starter or long reliever.I will also say on the Fulmer interest, if the Cardinals could work out a deal for Fulmer and Barnhart, they could clean up two areas of need. I believe Knizner has an option available, so you can send him to Memphis when Yadi is ready to return and you have two catchers capable of starting. Knizner has had ample opportunity to show himself as a big league catcher and he’s just not figuring it.
Bob Nightengale, USA Today: “Teams are wasting their time calling for Arizona Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen. He’s not going anywhere. Arizona instead would love to move Madison Bumgarner, but he still has about $50 million left on his five-year, $85 million deal. They are expected to trade reliever Ian Kennedy, outfielder David Peralta and starter Zach Davies.”
Matt Moore is a name I hadn’t considered, but a LHRP option that’s throwing great. Waino can’t go 9 every night unfortunately.
I think Thompson has filled the gap of 2nd LHP, and Naughton too really. I think there are more pressing needs than a LH relief pitcher right now. McFarland is on rehab, but I don’t see how they can add him to this pen.
C667, I agree with that, but as we’ve seen, you can’t have to much pitching. Packy being used properly has been a big help.
I’ve mentioned a lot of times how bad the Angels middle IFers are. I still think there is a deal to be made involving DeJong for Syndergaard. With the, somewhat surprising, DFA and of Rondon, he might be an attractive piece to them also?
I would do DeJong and Rondon for Syndergaard.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2022.shtml
There is the link for the Angels stats this year, just to back up/reference how bad their MI has been. DeJong makes the money almost a break even overall for both sides and helps the Angels in 2023 and if he improves by the end of 2023, the next two years are options as well. The Cards can throw in Perez if they want him!
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