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I still think Matz is going to be a valuable asset in the rotation for years but those pen signings were head scratchers. McFarland can at least be defended as he was successful last year but signing a bunch of nobodies because you believe they won’t walk in batters with bases loaded was an overreaction to frustration at last year problems.
but signing a bunch of nobodies because you believe they won’t walk in batters with bases loaded was an overreaction to frustration at last year problems.
This is Mo’s biggest fault. He’s not a bad GM, per se. The results on his watch bear out that he’s solid overall. But where he falters is that whenever something works for a short term, he goes right back to that same well. The double down approach rarely works twice in a row, and I think the main reason the Cards were so good at making that work back in the 2008-14 stretch was Luhnow’s brilliance and the fact that they were ahead of the curve of the other teams. Mo is trying to prove he can do the same thing, and it usually doesn’t work.
So what should Mo do this year? Lean on the forthcoming strength (position players) and prioritize adding real value to the pitching staff. Whether that means swinging a trade with one of our young guys for a promising or proven starter, spending in free agency, or some combo of the two, the window looks open for a couple years to make some hay. Upgrading the rotation will be necessary to maximize the chances of success. Of course we will need to hit on a couple of the prospects like Gorman, Walker, Winn, Herrera and have young guys like Carlson, Edman, and O’Neill maintain their play or improve as well.
I still think Matz is going to be a valuable asset in the rotation for years but those pen signings were head scratchers.
I certainly agree with the latter but I am not so sure about the former. The Matz deal concerned me from day one and nothing has happened to alleviate those concerns. He came to the big leagues with a lot of promise. He, along with DeGrom, Harvey, and Syndergaard were going to create a Mets dynasty. Of course that didn’t happen.
Matz put together a pretty good 2021 in his walk year for Toronto and of course Mo took the bait, ignoring all of his problems before 2021. I am not saying he is going to be another Brett Cecil. A more likely comp is Jaime Garcia. A LH starter with some promise who will occasionally shine but more often than not be plagued with inconsistency and injury. He is at best a number 4 or 5 starter, which has some value, but we overpaid for him. We have internal options (Liberatore and Thompson) who can probably put up better numbers at a fraction of the cost.
The cost is precisely why I favored the Matz deal. If Matz can put up 2021 numbers for 4 years then he would prob be worth 15-20m per year. He is paid 11m per year. I was betting on 2 years like 2021, 1 middling year (.500 record and 4.5 era) and 1 year totally lost to injury as anymore that is pretty certain for the Cardinals. Looks like we are getting either option 3 or 4 this year. I guess we will see.
The guys who look like rotation pieces going forward: Flaherty, Matz, Hudson, Mikolas, Waino, Libby, Thompson, potentially Graceffo and McGreevy.
Some of those guys we have only for this year (Waino) or one more year (Mikolas and Flaherty). I’d really prefer to add a top of the rotation guy who can be our ace as I’m not confident in any of those guys being a #1 going forward. In the best case, we sign or trade for a guy and end up with extra front end starters. In the worst, we will absolutely need a rotation upgrade to thrive.
The Jaime Garcia comp is a good one. Garcia’s last 2 years with Cardinals when he was healthy-ish is almost exactly what I expect from Matz. And Garcia was paid almost exactly the same. Matz had been durable the last 5 years, something Garcia could never claim. Matz #’s this year are inflated by HR rate. His k/bb rate is better than last year and his FIP is in low 4 range. Let him get a few more starts under his belt before dismissing him as Cecil 2.0.
I don’t think we will ever sign a healthy free agent ace. Had my hopes dashed too many times. I gave up after lots of prognosticators had us for Kevin Brown and I bought it hook, line, and sinker. Nope, more like Chris Carpenter injury comebacks and getting lucky on Colorado giving up on Kile.
I don’t think we will ever sign a healthy free agent ace. Had my hopes dashed too many times. I gave up after lots of prognosticators had us for Kevin Brown and I bought it hook, line, and sinker. Nope, more like Chris Carpenter injury comebacks and getting lucky on Colorado giving up on Kile.
That’s my suspicion, too. That said, the big idea for me would be to use Edman to dangle in front of Cleveland in a trade for Bieber, to Philly for Nola, or one of the Rays or Marlins guys. Then sign him long term to be our #1. A rotation of Bieber/Nola, Libby, Matz, Hudson/Graceffo, maybe Flaherty if he can return healthy and will sign… sounds pretty good going forward. Then if you get more than expected from Thompson, McGreevy or whomever we draft this year, then it’s a plus.
My recollection is that I was counting down the days for the Jaime Garcia contract to finally be done. I am afraid it is deja vu with Matz.
I do like the idea of trading quality surplus for a high end starter. Mo has the ability to sometimes make good trades but when it comes to free agency he is one of the worst. He should just completely stay away from free agents.
Garcia had some good efforts with St Louis but like a lot of our high end pitching talent, never quite reached the level we all hoped for. He was traded for John Gant, who turned out to be useful, and who was traded for JA Happ last year. I felt like Garcia was overall an ok pitcher for us.
Jorge Lopez (RHRP) on the Orioles would be a great pick up. The big three with him and a healthy Hicks would be great.
He’s controlled through 2024 and only $1.5M this year. Might be a bit rich on the prospect side for Mo though. Would Yepez be enough to entice them?Hopefully if they do trade Yepez it is in a package for a starter (Montas or Castillo)…you can find relief pitching for less normally….if you got a starter most likely Palante would go back to the pen and you would be fine
The thing that’s going to be interesting as the deadline nears is what the extra playoff teams do to the trade market.
There are going to be way more buyers than sellers, so it’s probably going to be like the used car market right now. Not a lot available, and what’s nice is going to cost a heck of a lot. Realistically there are probably going to be 5 sellers from each league, and obviously those teams are losing for a reason and valuable players aren’t going to be readily available and I think the selling teams are going to be able to ask for higher returns than they have previously.Someone mentioned the difference in Packy Naughton as a starter vs a reliever, and it’s night and day. I’m in favor of him sticking in the pen until the deadline at least to see what he can do. Throwing full effort over an inning or two vs trying to go 6+ can make a huge difference. Give the guy a chance and get rid of the “mistakes” they signed in the offseason.
Give the guy a chance and get rid of the “mistakes” they signed in the offseason.
That’s the key Chitown. The Cardinals are either going to have to admit their mistakes and DFA Mo’s reliever blunders or save face and stash them on the IL.
Hopefully if they do trade Yepez it is in a package for a starter (Montas or Castillo
I wouldn’t move Yepez. He and Burleson would be my LF or DH options next season. Obviously a sweet enough deal changes my mind, but realistically I’m holding on to him.
Also, I’d have no interest in Castillo. I don’t know much about him, but he’s always crossed me as “me first” type guy and not a guy who would embrace the Cardinal way. I could be wrong, but there’s a reason a guy like Tommy Pham was traded when he was having the seasons he was in STL and the return was as light as it was for that type player. He’s a clubhouse cancer and they wanted him gone, and it’s come to light much more since leaving STL. I could be wrong with Castillo, but just the way he seems to me, like Cueto.I’d like to back up on my efforts to trade Fernandez. Maybe he is realizing his potential finally. Unless Robertson is the target, let’s keep him.
Agree C27, I’m in the same boat. He looks much more confident this year and actually throwing strikes.
The Padres are desperately in need of cutting payroll so they can get below the tax line (barely over currently according to COTS). Looking to 2023, and a possible BP addition in which the Cards invest in right now which could help both teams. Secondly, and their motivation, the Padres I’ve read in multiple places, are in desperate need of OF help.
– Cards get Drew Pomeranz, who is owed $10M in 22 and 23 and likely not to pitch in 22 but was dominant the last few years before his injury last August.
– Padres get Conner Capel who likely doesn’t have a long term spot on the Cards 25 or 40 man roster when Bader and O’neill get back and especially when they can’t hold Burleson down any longer. OR if they prefer, they can take Nootbar instead. The $ would be close to the same on their end.
– I’d value Pomeranz, on a 1 year deal for next year at $8M (1 or so WAR), since the Cards should have plenty of cash sitting around currently, they pay all of his salary this year which would be about 5M since we are at the half way point and the Padres kick in $8M of his salary in 2023.
– Padres then get under the tax by (-314k+5M-350k) over 4M which gives them some wiggle room.
– Cardinals add $5M to this years payroll, but only 2M for 2023 when they will need to add at least one top starter.
Padres Payroll Info: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hUvYNZODpusJEJQm41EPUDHXi-fSWtWmxY54X4OW3Q4/edit#gid=1520401900
Drew Pomeranz Stats: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pomerdr01.shtml
i like the deal, but the Cards need arms now. And while Capel isn’t much, he could be useful to a deal to help now.
I wondered about Austin Nola whose paycheck will be going up next year in his first ARB deal, he’s 32 and can hit and is fine behind the plate.
Alfaro is playing well for them right now and they have plenty of catchers in their pipeline.
Maybe we could snag Nola in a deal where we take on Pomeranz add to Capel something else decent but not great.
Nola doesn’t fix the pitching concerns, but it might allow us to move Knizner in a deal and put Hererra back at AAA. Yadi returns we have a fine catcher in Nola to help, and next year we have Hererra able to take his time to take the job from Nola and then Nola is aa fine backup in his own and great backup option if Herrera struggles.
Knizner could be attractive to several clubs especially as a secondary addition to a deal.
Adding Pomeranz doesnt help much now…but is worth the gamble for 2023, and Nola helps now in one way and next year in another.
MLB Trade Rumors did a piece on the Padres luxury tax issues. They stated that Snell is who the Pads would like to move the most. He is having a down year and is owed quite a bit of money but he isn’t too far removed from being a high end pitcher. It probably wouldn’t take much to get him, maybe Capel and Woodford?
Whoever the Cardinals trade for it it needs to be someone who can help this year though. I still think bullpen could be the way to go.
#Padres could explore creative scenarios to shed payroll to facilitate other additions before the trade deadlinehttps://t.co/G4SZBW5Ez4 pic.twitter.com/zDKHp6O7D2
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) June 29, 2022
Snell would be a great fit. Maybe Nootbaar, Baker, Rondon, or Woodford would be 2 prospects to deal for him.
I wonder what a deal would take for both? Any thoughts?
They need OF help and to shed payroll, it shouldn’t cost a ton in talent but those two could definitely help the Cards.
I will be greatly surprised if the Cards make a trade for a top starter or bullpen piece without feeling a big loss from our prospect list. Not sure who it would be, but offering someone our 2nd or third tier players won’t cut it for a good player. Like Brian has said, to get quality you have to give up quality. That’s why I am not a GM; because I hate to part with really good prospects for someone we only have for a couple of months. Yes, the right piece may help us in October, but….
Guess I am feeling the regret of our trade with Miami a few years ago….Cfan64, Snell and Pomeranz are signed through 2023 as well. And their value isn’t high right now, so the amount of talent given up would correlate with how much they cover dollar wise. Pomeranz might actually make it back this year so he could help out in 22 also.
Cards get Snell and Pomeranz + money in 23
Padres get Bader and Capel
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