Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2019-2020

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Viewing 25 posts - 1,876 through 1,900 (of 2,234 total)
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  • #137276
    Simba9
    Participant

    Free

    as far as 3Bs are concerned maybe Cleveland lets go of Ramirez? Say Webb and Thomas?

    #137277
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I don’t think Cleveland is looking to clean house and sell everything. They are 19-12 and solidly in the playoff picture. The only reason they are listening on Clevinger and Plesac is because those two apparently seriously irritated the wrong people with their actions.

    #137285
    mudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Here’s a refresher on Arenado’s contract:

    2021 – $35,000,000.
    2022 – $35,000,000.
    2023 – $35,000,000.
    2024 – $35,000,000.
    2025 – $33,000.000.
    2026 – $27,000,000.
    2027 – $25,000,000. (He will require at least another $25M to waive his NTC.)

    We also have to keep in mind that, traditionally, mega-contract players severely underperform during the last few years of their contract. So figure on a slash line something like .269/.303/.399/.702 for the last two or three years of his contract.

    Maybe if we had an economy like the one we had prior to the pandemic, WDW might take the risk. But under the current economical and cultural climate, I don’t think so.

    #137368
    1964cards
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I would be shocked if Cleveland was a seller this season. They are almost a lock to make the playoffs and have the potential to make a deep run with the Quality and depth of pitching they have. I would go for it if I were them.

    I do believe they will listen to offers for Plesac and Clevinger. However, I do not see them moving either one unless someone is willing to over pay. I think their approach to moving these two changes after the season.

    #137386
    1964cards
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Mudville, agree with your concerns. However, I get a similar, but slightly different answer than your refresher. I could not find reference to 2027 in Baseball Reference or Cots Baseball Contracts. I also added Arenado’s age to table.

    2021 $35,000,000 Age 30
    2022 $35,000,000 Age 31
    2023 $35,000,000 Age 32
    2024 $35,000,000 Age 33
    2025 $32,000.000 Age 34
    2026 $27,000,000 Age 35

    I would agree that with your comments regarding mega-contract players severely underperform during the last few years of their contract. However, the last three years of his contract start at age 33. My guess is that the contract timing and duration work better than others. Potentially the Cardinals are dealing with one or two years of “underperformance”. This still looks like a decent deal for the club.

    If we look and Matt Holliday’s contract and performance we can see that he did not start his drop off until age 34. His age 34 and age 35 numbers were not what they had been, but were pretty decent. His age 36 season and final year of his contract were not good at all. It should be noted that he was also hampered by a significant injury at age 35.

    The bigger risk in obtaining Arenado is that you will be tying up over $50M in two aging players between 2021 and 2024 – Nolan and Goldy. This could occur at a time when the club could see a drop off in Goldy’s performance. So your big contributors are experiencing decline and the front office is constrained due lack of payroll flexibility.

    2021 Goldy age 33 Nolan age 30
    2022 Goldy age 34 Nolan age 31
    2023 Goldy age 35 Nolan age 32
    2024 Goldy age 36 Nolan age 33
    2025 Nolan age 34
    2026 Nolan age 35

    So, how much risk is ownership and the front office willing to take on?

    #137392
    Cardinals27
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I’m not sure where this belongs, but on the vested options front:

    According to my prorated math, Andrew Miller has already passed his vesting option numbers. So therefor he will be back in 2021. I am not as down on this as some. He is paid too much, but who isn’t?

    Now Matt Carpenter’s numbers are very close. Assuming 2019 post season plate appearances count, Matt needs 167/168 more to vest his 2022 season. If he plays regularly, avoids injury, and the Cards get into the playoffs, he will likely qualify. But failing any one of those, he will likely fall short.

    #137418
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I think Miller needed 14 appearances this year for his option to vest. He currently has 7.

    Carp’s 2022 option is based on PA’s in 2020 and 2021. If my math is correct he would need 203 this year and 550 next year. He currently has 76 this year.

    #137430
    Cardinals27
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I am wrong about Carp, but I believe Miller has reached his pro rated games. He appeared in 6 playoff games last year too.

    #137451
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I don’t know if playoff games count towards a vesting option. Assuming that they don’t he needed 37 games this year. Since we are playing 37% of the season 37% of 37 is 14. He would need 7 more games.

    #137453
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    gscottar is correct about Miller’s vesting. Seven down of 14 needed. I recently wrote about it here.

    Cardinals Place Reliever Andrew Miller on the Injured List

    #137563
    mudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The trade deadline is right at hand. I said at the beginning of ST that the Cardinals have too much pitching. I still think they do, although with the dynamics of this weird season combined with all the doubleheaders the Cardinals have coming up, this might not be the best time to trade pitching. Of course, if they get an offer that that they think could help them a lot in the future, they might have to take a chance.

    #137595
    forsch31
    Participant

    Free

    How about CMart and O’Neill for Arenado? That would be the start of the discussions.

    #137599
    LACardFan
    Participant

    Free

    Mozeliak needs to pull another JMart + Arozorena = Liberatore type trade or three…

    #137608
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I have noticed that teams have figured out a loophole to the rule that you can only trade players from the 60 man pool. If they want to trade someone not in the pool they just call it a player to be named later, then withhold the name until after the season.

    #137609
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    forsch, I am afraid it would take much much more than that to get Arenado, not to mention I don’t think DeWitt wants any part of that contract.

    LACardFan, I like your idea. We should try to get rid of several surplus parts with some value in exchange for a high end prospect.

    #137613
    stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    forsch, I am afraid it would take much much more than that to get Arenado, not to mention I don’t think DeWitt wants any part of that contract.

    I don’t know that those two exact players would get it done, but I don’t think it would take “much more” than that type of value to get Arenado. He’s paid fairly now and will be way overpaid before long, with the potential of an opt out within a year. To me, something like Oviedo, O’Neill, Montero would probably get it done. Or perhaps Gorman, Rondon, and a lower level piece. Which could still be an overpay if Arenado leaves after 2021 or declines in a couple of years.

    #137628
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I think acquiring Arenado would be a mistake. He is making $35M per year which means we would have two players (Arenado and Goldy) combining for $60M per year! That leaves us with maybe another $100M-$110M for the other 24 players. That seems very restrictive to me.

    #137637
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    gs, what did you think of the player return for Rosey to Diego? Who would you compare the Diego outfielder to in the Cards org?

    #137639
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #137641
    forsch31
    Participant

    Free

    The only years with a salary crunch would be 2021 and 2024. Goldschmidt’s contract comes of the books after 2024 and Arenado’s salary starts going down after 2024. Fowler’s comes off after 2021. Andrew Miller’s might come off after this year. Molina’s contract should go down after this year. Wainwright’s contract should be done in the next year or 2. Around 2024 is when some of our younger guys will start getting expensive.

    #137644
    forsch31
    Participant

    Free

    I would take Peralta. I wouldn’t mind having Young back also. I wonder if we could get Fowler to waive his NTC to go to Arizona? I haven’t thought out what I would trade from the Cardinals but I would give a little more to get those 2.

    #137652
    mudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I believe the Rockies want no part of Arenado’s contract. They signed him with the intention of trading him. Their strategy is to reap the benefits of a player’s best years, then, when he starts earning the really big money, trade that player to a sucker organization like the Blue Jays for a bevy of top prospects. That’s what they did with Tulowitzki.

    #137656
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    gs, what did you think of the player return for Rosey to Diego? Who would you compare the Diego outfielder to in the Cards org?

    I don’t know a lot about the young OF the Royals received. He is 24 years old and has some power numbers in the minors, but had not played above AA until this season. He might be compared to the likes of Conner Capel, Justin Williams, or maybe Lane Thomas. That is just a guess.

    #137657
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The only years with a salary crunch would be 2021 and 2024. Goldschmidt’s contract comes of the books after 2024 and Arenado’s salary starts going down after 2024.

    Each year Arenado and Goldy are together costs $60M. Trying to pay for the other 24 players with the remaining payroll seems like a stretch to me. You had better hope that the guys making the league minimum are big producers.

    Look at the Angels. They are paying Trout and Rendon a combined $65M per year and yet they are in last place. Granted their pitching stinks but their offense isn’t very good either. You have to spread the money around.

    #137660
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I believe the Rockies want no part of Arenado’s contract. They signed him with the intention of trading him. Their strategy is to reap the benefits of a player’s best years, then, when he starts earning the really big money, trade that player to a sucker organization like the Blue Jays for a bevy of top prospects. That’s what they did with Tulowitzki.

    You are probably correct but the key word in your post is sucker. I think taking on Arenado’s massive contract is a sucker’s bet unless you are the Yankees.

Viewing 25 posts - 1,876 through 1,900 (of 2,234 total)
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