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Here is one man’s sort-of answer…
Adam Eaton did not make my top 50 Free Agents list. These outfielders did, and Schwarber would've been on, too.
George Springer
Marcella Ozuna
Michael Brantley
Joc Pederson
Jackie Bradley, Jr.
Jurickson Profar
Brett Gardner
Robbie Grossmanhttps://t.co/Cmf4qtUUjm— Craig Edwards (@craigjedwards) December 8, 2020
Eaton was a guy I remember liking a lot a while back. Seems like he has been in a bit of a decline, but he still put up an above average line in 2019 (.793 OPS, 107 wRC+). He had a reputation as a solid to good defender but hasn’t been great the last couple of years.
I’d put his contract as about what I’d expect for one year of Rosario (similar profiles overall) and just slightly below Pederson (who’s younger but is a platoon player). I’d take Pederson at $8-9M AAV for 2 years, and Rosario at $7-7.5M for one year. I wouldn’t want to go above that for either.
I’d take Eaton, who I think at least has a shot to be an above average bat. I don’t think either would be super exciting though.
I agree with this take. The Cardinals may get priced out of some of the OF market, especially if they are bringing Yadi and Waino back.
A cheaper option I like is Adam Duvall. I know he is RH but this guy can really slug when healthy. I think he may be had at 1 yr $5M. At this point I would say the Cards should just sign Yadi, Waino, Duvall, and Gyroko and call it a winter. We would be good enough to compete in the NLC and would be primed for a big splash in 2022.
If Adam Eaton is getting 1/7 plus an option, I have a hard time believing much more valuable and younger players (Pederson, Rosario, Schwarber, et. al) will be in the #stlcards desired price range. Question becomes whether they’ll recognize and exceed.
— Jeff Jones (@jmjones) December 8, 2020
Carlos Santana signs with the Royals for 2 years $17M. I do believe that teams are upgrading their 2021 revenue projections. Not sure if the Cards are there yet or not.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30478166/carlos-santana-kansas-city-royals-reach-2-year-deal
Card fans shouldn’t be expecting any major additions if they acquire anyone at all. And why should they?
In today’s VEB:
With this kind of competition within the division, it is possible that the Cardinals are content with making a minor acquisition or two at best because the rest of the division is not getting better either. The Cardinals insist that they will be competitive in 2021, and that is almost certainly true considering how every other team in the NL Central is actively looking to shed payroll. However, it seems unlikely that the Cardinals will be actively looking to remain competitive. Instead, they are going to passively remain competitive by virtue of the other teams in the division getting worse, not by virtue of the Cardinals getting better.
Maybe this course of action is fine. It will allow the Cardinals to compete for a division title next season in a weak NL Central while they wait for a large amount of payroll to come off the books following the end of the season. On the other hand, however, if the team decided to go for it a little bit, then it would almost surely be the favorite to win the division. With every other team shedding payroll, it would only take a small improvement to gain a large amount of ground on the rest of the division. Signing an outfield bat and an infield bat or utility infielder to modest deals while also bringing back Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright would almost surely cement the team as a playoff contender.
However, instead of viewing the upcoming 2021 season as an opportunity to reclaim the division while teams are shedding payroll, it appears that the Cardinals are content to save money and fight it out as well. This may change as the winter progresses, but currently it seems like the whole NL Central is willing to cut costs and rely on other teams getting worse in order to compete, and the Cardinals seem willing to follow suit.
To me, it just restates what has seemed obvious from the day Mo confirmed payroll would be down.
Yes. To be fair, the Cards could sign Yadi and Waino and probably another free agent, such as Pederson or Rosario, and still be able to say payroll is down by $15-20M (which is about 10-12% below 2020 projection). The question will be whether they’re aiming to drop payroll by that much, $25-30M (with just Waino and Yadi), or $40-45M (no Yadi or Waino).
Santana to Royals:
81mil, current 2021 opening day payroll w/Santana
89mil, 2020, So KC is at 91% of last season, and the offseason isn’t over.96.5mil, 2019
122mil, 2018
143mil, 2017
131mil, 2016
112mil, 2015
92mil, 2014
81mil, 2013cots
That’s interesting stuff, jj. I’d be curious where all teams are as it seems spending is down a bit, but not crazy high. As mentioned before, if the Cards cut 10% of payroll from 2020 to 2021, it would be around $153M to spend. Hard to know what the team is planning for sure though.
Glass sold the Royals during the 2019 season, and the new ownership group was a little conservative while rebuilding / retooling in 2019-2020 offseason, down 7mil, but then Covid hit.
They are down another 8mil currently, understandably, but they aren’t 20 to 25% down from last season either. Maybe they’re not done.
If we were at 165mil last season (w/out Leake), and 126mil now, we’re down 24% CURRENTLY. As you say, hard to know what the team is planning for sure.
After the Lance Lynn and Adam Eaton acquisitions, the CWS payroll is currently down 12% from opening day 2020.
If we were at 165mil last season (w/out Leake), and 126mil now, we’re down 24% CURRENTLY. As you say, hard to know what the team is planning for sure.
Out of curiosity, why not count Leake? I was going off the generally posited 170M. Still, at $165 that means payroll could be around $149M, meaning Waino, Yadi and one or two small moves. If they were willing to go to around $155M, that could net them a Pederson and 3B like Frazier or Gyorko, IMO.
Looks like the White Sox are not done.
The Chicago #WhiteSox now the team to beat in the AL Central, and would perhaps be heavy favorite if they land their No. 1 target: free agent closer Liam Hendriks. https://t.co/KpQlxuX3fq
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 9, 2020
The Cards have a closer available for the White Sox. He just happens to have been someone they were said to have coveted earlier in his career. That would be Carlos Martinez. Not saying I’d do it but some fans would be happy. Carlos and a couple million for a lotto ticket?
We can count Leake, I’ve seen 165mil generally posted. 126mil of 170 mil is currently 26% down from opening day 2020.
If Mo fills multiple roles again cheaply, our worst case: C Castro 3mil (no Yadi), UI Alberto 3mil (no Wong), SP DeSclafani 4mil (no Wainwright). +10mil to 136mil, down 20% from 2020 opening day.
If he also adds an outfield bat for 10mil, we’re up to 146mil, down 15% from opening day 2020. Who knows if 15% will be enough reduction.
The White Sox, Royals, and Angels have all been aggressive this winter. Some owners are apparently willing to spend.
As has been mentioned before it appears all of the teams in NLC are in retreat mode, therefore, the division is completely up for grabs and perhaps could be won with 85 wins. That means the Cardinals will be in “low hanging fruit” mode or “path of least resistance” mode, or whatever our favorite cliche is. They aren’t “going for it.”
We are currently at $126M. Let’s say we sign Waino at 1 yr $7M, and Yadi at 2 yrs $20M ($8M in 2021 and $12M in 2022), that would put us at $141M for 2021. I don’t think that leaves much room for anyone else. Like I mentioned yesterday I would go cheap for someone like Adam Duvall at 1 yr $5M then a “Gyroko type” at $2M or less to platoon with Carp. All of those moves would put us at $148M and I don’t sense the Cardinals would go much higher. Now if we were to somehow shed more payroll that would help but we have too many unmovable contracts.
While it’s safe to say that most all teams will be shedding payroll to some degree, the market has shown me this year that it won’t be quite as bad as some feared. No doubt the teams are forecasting what payroll would look like with different scenarios, and based on what we’ve seen from other teams, about a 10% reduction seems probable. It could be more, or could be less. While owners often posture about what they’re willing to commit, the actions thus far tell me that teams are willing to commit a bit more than we previously expected. As I think the Cards were actually under 2020 “budget” pre pandemic (hence why they were in on Arenado at one point), I do think payroll could be a touch over $150M this year. That’s my take, anyway.
Gscottar, why Duvall? He’s a righty with a career .293 OBP. Outside of Atlanta he has been below average for years. He hits lefties decently, but I’m not sure that’s what we really need in the OF. I think for a few million more we could get a much better player.
A 150mil STL payroll for us is a 9% reduction. Seems very optimistic, but I hope you are right. I’m expecting double of that, around 140mil (18%).
On the Fowler trade front, the CWS RF Adam Eaton signing is 1/7mil. So adjust from there, if you prefer one over the other. If you view them evenly for 2021, Fowler has 9.5mil negative value of his 16.5mil salary in this off-seasons market.
A 150mil STL payroll for us is a 9% reduction. Seems very optimistic, but I hope you are right. I’m expecting double of that, around 140mil (18%).
It probably is optimistic, yes. But it would be in line with what other teams seem to be doing at this point. I also think that had the Cards been wowed by a free agent or trade, payroll could have been more like $180M last year. Obviously all bets are off with pandemic losses, but the models probably look a little better for fan revenue next season than they did even at the end of the season. I think we will have some fans at the opener, and maybe full fans by the end of the year.
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