2020 Cardinals line-up & rotation

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  • #125520
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    I guess I really liked the looks of Sosa. Admittedly we have a lot of guys who can play numerous positions but it would not be bad to have one more. I know it makes your teeth grind Brian but I am still not sure of Carpenter. I admit he looked ‘better’ in ST but still had back problems and had to sit out some time. I also suspect that Carp has become a known quantity among the pitching community and that also account for part of his strikeout problem.

    That’s the problem with ST – you see all the goodies and never know what will work. For me Carlson is a definite player. Has the delay now erased his needed minors time so that his clock can be started to the Cards advantage?

    Another worry: Mo might throw Sosa into a trade package (ala Aroz) if he gets shuffled down to Memphis.

    #125521
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Nah, I don’t grind my teeth over Carpenter. I just think he will play unless hurt.

    I think Sosa has real value now, especially since Munoz is gone. What other middle infielders do they have who seem ready for the majors? I would expect Sosa to get the call if any of these players are injured – DeJong, Wong, Miller, Edman and Carpenter.

    The difference with Arozarena is that he was blocked at a position with a lot of talent ahead of him. That is not the case in the middle infield, in my assessment.

    Carlson will start when the Cards are ready to admit that at least two of these four guys are not starting material – Bader, O’Neill, Thomas and Fowler. I don’t think they have reached that point in their assessment yet.

    #125523
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    BW wrote: I think Sosa has real value now, especially since Munoz is gone.

    I’m gonna take that as your agreement that 15 pitchers and 14 position players may not be so bad…LOL

    #125525
    AvatarGameCard
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    The starting line-up should be:
    Against RH P
    C-Molina
    1B-Goldschmidt
    2B-Wong
    SS-DeJong
    3B-Carpenter
    LF-Edman
    CF-Bader
    RF-Carlson
    Reserves
    C-Wieters
    1B-Ravelo
    INF-OF-Miller
    OF-O’Neill
    OF-Fowler

    Against LF P
    3B-Edman
    LF-O’Neill

    #125528
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    MM3 said:

    I’m gonna take that as your agreement that 15 pitchers and 14 position players may not be so bad…LOL

    Absolutely! We are all just making educated guesses.

    #125532
    Avatargscottar
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    I would go with the 15-14 split and keep 3 catchers. If there are going to be a lot of DH’s Yadi can’t catch both games every time. I would bring Knizer back to St. Louis. Wieters would be a good bat off the bench late in games.

    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by Avatargscottar.
    #125750
    Avatarbccran
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    How about going beyond 2020 to see what it might look like several years into the future –

    C – Knizner/Herrera
    1B – Goldschmidt
    2B – Wong
    SS – DeJong
    3B – Gorman
    LF – O’Neill/Torres/Montero/Nunez
    CF – Bader/Thomas
    RF – Carlson

    Rotation –

    Flaherty
    Hudson
    Mikolas
    Thompson
    Liberatore

    Bullpen –

    Hicks
    Gallegos
    Helsley
    Fernandez
    Gant/Ponce
    Webb
    Cabrera

    #125773
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    BC, agree mostly.
    -Wong is a FA after 2021, will they trust Edman or Sosa with 2B after that?
    -Gomber is going to be a great SP
    -Reyes?
    -Oviedo looked like a future starter in ST
    -Rondon as well
    -I’ve posted a few trade ideas regarding Mikolas, to free up some money, that might be a smart move

    #125819
    Avatarbccran
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    Which youngsters have better than a 50/50 chance to become a regular position player or member of the rotation?

    Carlson
    Gorman
    Thompson
    Liberatore
    Herrera

    I know it’s inexact at this stage, but any others come to mind?

    #125828
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    bc….. I think that they all have a better than 50/50 chance. A better question is who will be All-Star quality players. IMO, Thompson has the best shot at 1/2 starter.

    #125829
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    A simple way to do this would be to take the top prospect list and figure out where to draw the 50-50 line.

    Here is a more exacting method I follow when I do the site prospect rankings each winter. I assign every prospect a scouting grade that reflects his ceiling and his likelihood of him reaching it.

    Grades:

    8 – Elite talent
    7 – All-star
    6 – Above average starter, top to mid-rotation starting pitcher, closer
    5 – Average starter, #3-5 starting pitcher, impact reliever
    4 – Bench/bullpen contributor, spot starter
    2 – Career minor leaguer

    Risk:

    Safe – Almost certain to reach ceiling
    Low – Strong chance of reaching ceiling
    Medium – Some work to become an MLB player
    High – More projection than results
    Extreme – Highly projectable, small chance of making the majors

    The prospects I have with a 5 or better grade and risk of medium, low or safe:

    Carlson, Gorman, Liberatore, Montero, Knizner, Herrera, Thompson, Woodford, Rondon, Fernandez, Cabrera, Oviedo, Seijas and Locey. Note the vast majority are pitchers, with “impact reliever” ceiling good enough for a “5”.

    Many of these guys are “medium” risk, which might be in the range of 40-60%, for example, not exactly 50%. So the tighter the criteria, the shorter the list of names.

    The whole list for 2020 is in this subscriber article. In it, I re-rank the top 50 with grade taking precedence over risk. As you might imagine, a Fletcher type jumps up while a guy like Woodford drops.

    2020 St. Louis Cardinals Top 50 Prospects on Potential Only

    #125830
    Avatarbccran
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    14 – only 10% or so of minor league players ever make it to the major leagues. A smaller percent become key players in the field, rotation, or bull pen. Since there are 40 players taken now in every draft, supplemented by international signings, just trying to project a 25 man roster based upon arrival dates over the next few years of those who make it.

    #125831
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Sorry if this frustrates folks who can’t read subscriber content, but for bccran who may be interested in other points of view, I summarized my MLB debut year estimates for the entire top 50 in this article. It also shows options remaining and Rule 5 status. (It is also on pages 28-29 in the 2020 Prospect Guide, for those of you who have it.)

    2020 St. Louis Cardinals Top Prospects by Level

    #125832
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    P.S Referring to the potential post a few above this, while the list of future MLB players may look long, remember guys like Gallen, Alcantara and Kelly. When assessing, I never, ever let the question, “Where can they fit on the existing Cardinals 25-man roster?” get in the way.

    If the players turn out to be good enough, it works out. And if not, that is the other half of the 50-50 chance, so by definition, the candidate list should be about twice as long as it eventually turns out to be.

    Another very rough data point to consider. The Cardinals have about 260 players not on the 40-man roster. If 10% of them make MLB (which feels high), that would be 26 names.

    #125838
    Avatarbccran
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    Another way to look at it, since players are under control for 6 years after arrival, is “who is going to fill that position for a number of years”. It’s fine to pick an arrival date, but will that position be open? Or will the player be blocked? For instance, on a natural progression basis Luke Baker would arrive in the majors in 2022. But Goldy is signed through 2024. Luke would be blocked for 3 years.
    Paul DeJong is under control through 2025. Assuming he continues to perform, where does that leave the other shortstops in the system, irregardless of their arrival dates? Same for all the other 3rd basemen in the system when Gorman arrives in several years. Do Montero and Nuñez get a shot in left field?

    The same goes with the rotation.
    Arrival date for some like Cabrera, Woodford, Rondon, Oviedo, Thompson, Liberatore, Roberts, etc. is one thing. But who might be blocking them? Mikolas? Carlos? Flaherty? Hudson?

    #128088
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    This is from a poll on Yardbarker: who would you rather have on your team?

    Tim Anderson Or Paul DeJong?
    DeJong 62% (1,679 votes)

    Anderson 38% (1,018 votes)

    2,697 Total Votes

    #128116
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    I guess it would matter if I knew who Tim Anderson is.

    #128119
    Avatarbccran
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    Interesting to look at contracts, and when the need is going to be there for each position.

    C – Molina, as it stands now, is a free agent in 2021
    Knizner is ready, and Herrera is several years behind him.

    1B – Set with Goldy through 2024. Baker may be the only legitimate prospect in the minors.

    2B – The Cards have a team option with Wong in 2021. Edman and Sosa are ready to backfill. They are under control for 5 years. Not much in the minors behind them.

    SS – DeJong is under control through 2025. Edman is ready, and Sosa can fill in as needed. No one else in the minors looks very promising.

    3B – The Cards have a team option with Carp for 2021. Montero needs to get back on track fast. Gorman is a few years away. Same for Nunez, if he’s for real.

    LF – O’Neill is under control through 2024. Williams is still raw, but has potential. Will be at Memphis.

    CF – Bader is under control through 2023. Lane Thomas has had one good season in the minors. He’s a possibility.
    May be our 4th outfielder when things resume.

    RF – Fowler’s contract runs through 2021. Carlson will be ready to move up after a few more months at AAA.

    Below AAA, I don’t see any outfielder that will be in the picture for a number of years except for possibly Torres.
    The rest are pretty much fillers. Sure hope they draft a good college outfielder with some pop at #21 or #54.

    #128140
    Avatargscottar
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    Carp is locked in for 2021. There is a club option for 2022 but it can also vest if he achieves a certain number of plate appearances in 2020 and 2021 combined.

    #128151
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Anderson had a breakout season in 2019, but it’s based on a .399 BAbip. Over his previous 1600 PA’s his BAbip was .326
    DeJong is the easy choice for me.

    #128152
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    “Knizner is ready,..”

    Ready for what role and at what level?

    #128153
    AvatarGameCard
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    Any Cardinal line-up without Tommy Edman is incorrect.

    #128163
    Avatarbccran
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    jj – Knizner is ready to be a starting catcher in the major leagues. He’s punched all the tickets. Will he succeed? Only time will tell. Just like with Bader and O’Neill.

    Gamecard – I agree with you, but the Cards may use him as a super flexible 5th infielder to spell Carp, PDJ, and KW. Along with Miller.

    #128338
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    We should except that the DH is coming to the NL very soon. Its just a matter of time and will alter the makeup of the present roster.

    https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/report_mlb_likely_to_propose_universal_designated_hitter_rule_for_2020/s1_127_31961351

    #128343
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    What the Cards should be planning for…. I’m sure they already are.

    https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2020/5/9/21252561/making-the-most-of-a-universal-dh

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