March 28, 2020 at 10:10 am #125520
I guess I really liked the looks of Sosa. Admittedly we have a lot of guys who can play numerous positions but it would not be bad to have one more. I know it makes your teeth grind Brian but I am still not sure of Carpenter. I admit he looked ‘better’ in ST but still had back problems and had to sit out some time. I also suspect that Carp has become a known quantity among the pitching community and that also account for part of his strikeout problem.
That’s the problem with ST – you see all the goodies and never know what will work. For me Carlson is a definite player. Has the delay now erased his needed minors time so that his clock can be started to the Cards advantage?
Another worry: Mo might throw Sosa into a trade package (ala Aroz) if he gets shuffled down to Memphis.March 28, 2020 at 10:15 am #125521
Nah, I don’t grind my teeth over Carpenter. I just think he will play unless hurt.
I think Sosa has real value now, especially since Munoz is gone. What other middle infielders do they have who seem ready for the majors? I would expect Sosa to get the call if any of these players are injured – DeJong, Wong, Miller, Edman and Carpenter.
The difference with Arozarena is that he was blocked at a position with a lot of talent ahead of him. That is not the case in the middle infield, in my assessment.
Carlson will start when the Cards are ready to admit that at least two of these four guys are not starting material – Bader, O’Neill, Thomas and Fowler. I don’t think they have reached that point in their assessment yet.March 28, 2020 at 11:16 am #125523
BW wrote: I think Sosa has real value now, especially since Munoz is gone.
I’m gonna take that as your agreement that 15 pitchers and 14 position players may not be so bad…LOLMarch 28, 2020 at 11:33 am #125525GameCardParticipantPaid - Monthly
The starting line-up should be:
Against RH P
Against LF P
LF-O’NeillMarch 28, 2020 at 12:01 pm #125528
I’m gonna take that as your agreement that 15 pitchers and 14 position players may not be so bad…LOL
Absolutely! We are all just making educated guesses.March 28, 2020 at 1:05 pm #125532gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
I would go with the 15-14 split and keep 3 catchers. If there are going to be a lot of DH’s Yadi can’t catch both games every time. I would bring Knizer back to St. Louis. Wieters would be a good bat off the bench late in games.
April 1, 2020 at 7:51 am #125750
- This reply was modified 2 months ago by gscottar.
How about going beyond 2020 to see what it might look like several years into the future –
C – Knizner/Herrera
1B – Goldschmidt
2B – Wong
SS – DeJong
3B – Gorman
LF – O’Neill/Torres/Montero/Nunez
CF – Bader/Thomas
RF – Carlson
CabreraApril 1, 2020 at 10:01 am #125773CardsFanInChiTownParticipantFree
BC, agree mostly.
-Wong is a FA after 2021, will they trust Edman or Sosa with 2B after that?
-Gomber is going to be a great SP
-Oviedo looked like a future starter in ST
-Rondon as well
-I’ve posted a few trade ideas regarding Mikolas, to free up some money, that might be a smart moveApril 2, 2020 at 7:52 am #125819
Which youngsters have better than a 50/50 chance to become a regular position player or member of the rotation?
I know it’s inexact at this stage, but any others come to mind?April 2, 2020 at 9:40 am #125828
bc….. I think that they all have a better than 50/50 chance. A better question is who will be All-Star quality players. IMO, Thompson has the best shot at 1/2 starter.April 2, 2020 at 9:48 am #125829
A simple way to do this would be to take the top prospect list and figure out where to draw the 50-50 line.
Here is a more exacting method I follow when I do the site prospect rankings each winter. I assign every prospect a scouting grade that reflects his ceiling and his likelihood of him reaching it.
8 – Elite talent
7 – All-star
6 – Above average starter, top to mid-rotation starting pitcher, closer
5 – Average starter, #3-5 starting pitcher, impact reliever
4 – Bench/bullpen contributor, spot starter
2 – Career minor leaguer
Safe – Almost certain to reach ceiling
Low – Strong chance of reaching ceiling
Medium – Some work to become an MLB player
High – More projection than results
Extreme – Highly projectable, small chance of making the majors
The prospects I have with a 5 or better grade and risk of medium, low or safe:
Carlson, Gorman, Liberatore, Montero, Knizner, Herrera, Thompson, Woodford, Rondon, Fernandez, Cabrera, Oviedo, Seijas and Locey. Note the vast majority are pitchers, with “impact reliever” ceiling good enough for a “5”.
Many of these guys are “medium” risk, which might be in the range of 40-60%, for example, not exactly 50%. So the tighter the criteria, the shorter the list of names.
The whole list for 2020 is in this subscriber article. In it, I re-rank the top 50 with grade taking precedence over risk. As you might imagine, a Fletcher type jumps up while a guy like Woodford drops.April 2, 2020 at 9:49 am #125830
14 – only 10% or so of minor league players ever make it to the major leagues. A smaller percent become key players in the field, rotation, or bull pen. Since there are 40 players taken now in every draft, supplemented by international signings, just trying to project a 25 man roster based upon arrival dates over the next few years of those who make it.April 2, 2020 at 10:02 am #125831
Sorry if this frustrates folks who can’t read subscriber content, but for bccran who may be interested in other points of view, I summarized my MLB debut year estimates for the entire top 50 in this article. It also shows options remaining and Rule 5 status. (It is also on pages 28-29 in the 2020 Prospect Guide, for those of you who have it.)April 2, 2020 at 10:10 am #125832
P.S Referring to the potential post a few above this, while the list of future MLB players may look long, remember guys like Gallen, Alcantara and Kelly. When assessing, I never, ever let the question, “Where can they fit on the existing Cardinals 25-man roster?” get in the way.
If the players turn out to be good enough, it works out. And if not, that is the other half of the 50-50 chance, so by definition, the candidate list should be about twice as long as it eventually turns out to be.
Another very rough data point to consider. The Cardinals have about 260 players not on the 40-man roster. If 10% of them make MLB (which feels high), that would be 26 names.
April 2, 2020 at 10:59 am #125838
- This reply was modified 2 months ago by Brian Walton.
Another way to look at it, since players are under control for 6 years after arrival, is “who is going to fill that position for a number of years”. It’s fine to pick an arrival date, but will that position be open? Or will the player be blocked? For instance, on a natural progression basis Luke Baker would arrive in the majors in 2022. But Goldy is signed through 2024. Luke would be blocked for 3 years.
Paul DeJong is under control through 2025. Assuming he continues to perform, where does that leave the other shortstops in the system, irregardless of their arrival dates? Same for all the other 3rd basemen in the system when Gorman arrives in several years. Do Montero and Nuñez get a shot in left field?
The same goes with the rotation.
Arrival date for some like Cabrera, Woodford, Rondon, Oviedo, Thompson, Liberatore, Roberts, etc. is one thing. But who might be blocking them? Mikolas? Carlos? Flaherty? Hudson?May 6, 2020 at 8:18 am #128088
This is from a poll on Yardbarker: who would you rather have on your team?
Tim Anderson Or Paul DeJong?
DeJong 62% (1,679 votes)
Anderson 38% (1,018 votes)
2,697 Total VotesMay 6, 2020 at 10:57 am #128116
I guess it would matter if I knew who Tim Anderson is.May 6, 2020 at 11:18 am #128119
Interesting to look at contracts, and when the need is going to be there for each position.
C – Molina, as it stands now, is a free agent in 2021
Knizner is ready, and Herrera is several years behind him.
1B – Set with Goldy through 2024. Baker may be the only legitimate prospect in the minors.
2B – The Cards have a team option with Wong in 2021. Edman and Sosa are ready to backfill. They are under control for 5 years. Not much in the minors behind them.
SS – DeJong is under control through 2025. Edman is ready, and Sosa can fill in as needed. No one else in the minors looks very promising.
3B – The Cards have a team option with Carp for 2021. Montero needs to get back on track fast. Gorman is a few years away. Same for Nunez, if he’s for real.
LF – O’Neill is under control through 2024. Williams is still raw, but has potential. Will be at Memphis.
CF – Bader is under control through 2023. Lane Thomas has had one good season in the minors. He’s a possibility.
May be our 4th outfielder when things resume.
RF – Fowler’s contract runs through 2021. Carlson will be ready to move up after a few more months at AAA.
Below AAA, I don’t see any outfielder that will be in the picture for a number of years except for possibly Torres.
The rest are pretty much fillers. Sure hope they draft a good college outfielder with some pop at #21 or #54.May 6, 2020 at 3:59 pm #128140gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
Carp is locked in for 2021. There is a club option for 2022 but it can also vest if he achieves a certain number of plate appearances in 2020 and 2021 combined.May 6, 2020 at 7:53 pm #128151jj-cf-stlParticipantFree
Anderson had a breakout season in 2019, but it’s based on a .399 BAbip. Over his previous 1600 PA’s his BAbip was .326
DeJong is the easy choice for me.May 6, 2020 at 8:01 pm #128152jj-cf-stlParticipantFree
“Knizner is ready,..”
Ready for what role and at what level?May 6, 2020 at 8:03 pm #128153GameCardParticipantPaid - Monthly
Any Cardinal line-up without Tommy Edman is incorrect.May 7, 2020 at 9:14 am #128163
jj – Knizner is ready to be a starting catcher in the major leagues. He’s punched all the tickets. Will he succeed? Only time will tell. Just like with Bader and O’Neill.
Gamecard – I agree with you, but the Cards may use him as a super flexible 5th infielder to spell Carp, PDJ, and KW. Along with Miller.May 11, 2020 at 7:10 am #128338
We should except that the DH is coming to the NL very soon. Its just a matter of time and will alter the makeup of the present roster.May 11, 2020 at 7:23 am #128343
What the Cards should be planning for…. I’m sure they already are.
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