2020 Cardinals line-up & rotation

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  • #124436
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    CC said:

    Interesting that some have lobbied hard for Carlson to go North under the argument the best 26 should go but dont make the same case if Dean is one of the best 26.

    Not sure who said that, but it was not me.

    Fundamentally, defining “the best 26” is subjective.

    #124437
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    CC said:

    I get that Ravelo doesn’t have options and we could lose him. Is he incrementally better than 10 other OF’s that will hit the waiver wire or become FA’s over the next month?

    Again, subjective to define who is “better”, especially when the alternatives are not known. But there is value in familiarity, consistency and versatility. Ravelo has been a Cardinal for three years, plays both 1B and OF, and hit well at Triple-A.

    This winter, the Cards preferred to keep Ravelo rather than letting him go to Korea – when they could have just signed a free agent instead to replace him.

    When the Cards acquired Dean, Mo said he is expected to ride the I-55 shuttle. Of course, his play can change that, but it may take more than a couple dozen spring at-bats to render Ravelo replaceable.

    Having said that, I don’t want to over-represent his value. He is probably no. 26 on the roster.

    #124439
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Jager, I agree with you on the position players, but I believe the starting nod will go to Kim, the LHed part is why I would lean that way. I’m not saying Ponce doesn’t deserve it, but they only have Kim locked up for two years and I believe they will want to get as many innings out of him as possible. Don’t forget about Gomber also, I assume he will be the ace in Memphis to start, but we can’t really know what they are thinking.

    For the BP, I think the locks are Gallegos, Brebbia, Gant, Helsley, Webb and Cecil. That’s 6 and one spot will likely go to a “long man” so Ponce in my prediction from the rotation fallout. Reyes needs to get innings and relearn consistency, Genesis looked good in his ST opportunities, but he broke his nail at a horrible time. Whitley has been nothing but spectacular, but due to the 40 man spot, I would think someone else would have to go down. I do think Whitley is going to be a mid summer addition that is better than what can be traded for. So that leaves Junior for the final spot

    STL Rotation: JF, CMart, Kim, Hudson, Waino
    BP: Gallegos, Helsley, Brebbia, Gant, Junior, Ponce, Cecil and Webb

    Memphis Rotation: Gomber, Reyes, Cabrera, Oviedo, Woodford, Rondon
    Memphis Closer: Whitley

    #124446
    thejagerthejager
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    Brian,

    Sure they have done it to plenty of others. But Carlson is the best hitter at Spring training (with all due respect to DeJong). Fowler possibly the worst.

    They will give Fowler (and Carp and Cecil) a month to show they are more than Spring Training results, which will conveniently allow them to keep Carlson down and get another year of control.

    Of course they publicly say he would come north if he forced his way up, but that just isnt true, not when his competition for a starting position is for one position because a guy who will get his spot because of his contract, and a guy in CF they love for his glove will be playing no matter what. Which makes Carlson’s competition Thomas and Oneill (as he is not fighting for a bench spot)…which is really just Oneill at this point, and unless Oneill fell flat on his face he was going to be getting that LF spot.

    Carlson’s performance will be played as purely Spring Training and that he still has work to be done at AAA (which isnt a lie). “Eye opening” will be used plenty of times and “up soon enough” as well. And the mere mentioning that it could be because of manipulating his clock will be attacked because of all the other guys who are also doing “so well”. Carlson never had a chance at making the team, unless major injuries happened. He just has too much competition, and beating those people out for a spot was never going to happen because of the pride of the FO. IMO

    -Fowler= can’t take his spot because of contract
    -Bader= can’t take his spot because of his glove and commitment to “defense”
    -starter LF Oneill/Thomas= Oneill and Thomas are battling for this spot, but because of the power it was always Oneill’s to lose which he hasnt
    -bench Thomas= Carlson isnt making the team as a bench player, if he is up he is up to play which has been said ad nauseum…ie he will start if he is up
    -bench Ravelo= same as above AND Ravelo is out of options

    Maybe i will be wrong, but there are too many things in the way for Carlson to get the call no matter his play in ST….add in the added bonus of extra control and you have a practically impossible path to making the team. Which can not be said aloud of course because the CArdinals can’t take that PR hit, that a player performing well wont get a shot. But that IS what will happen. IMO. they have just created so many excuses to use to gain that extra service time, either deliberately or through blind luck.


    Cardsfan

    As for Kim or Ponce….i totally get what you are saying. I don’t disagree on paper an thanks for reminding me about Gomber who has been a stud. I do disagree about Reyes in the AAA rotation. I even think Oviedo isn’t a lock to start there. I think Ponce has more value as a starter than reliever and i want him sharp, when he was the RP under glass last year we never saw him late. If Kim truly can be a non-under glass RP or POnce woudl be treated that way too…then sure but i think Kim already has agreed to that role publicly

    AAA-Ponce, Woodford, Genesis, Gomber, Rondon/Oviedo
    Reyes closing

    Thing is, that once Mikolas comes back, who will leave the rotation…Ponce or Kim obviously…if we put Kim there to start he wont need to acclimate himself to the role. If we put POnce in the spot, and then move him to AAA it keeeps Kim in the same role instead of changing either of them from starting to relieving. AS Kim has to accept minor league assignment and not POnce, POnce starting the rotation then going to AAA and keep performing whiel Kim carves out his role in the pen makes a lot of sense to me. Even if I might not do it if it was my decision

    #124450
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Obviously I am less concerned about the options of a marginal player than some. Let’s look at this from a different viewpoint – if Ravelo is so valuable and highly regarded then why would the Cardinals have even considered letting him go to Korea?

    #124451
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Jager, if Mikolas is back in early May, the rotation could have a hole or two by then, either by injury or performance.

    #124452
    AvatarCardinals27
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    There are too many uncertainties to let a player like Ravelo go, which is what would happen if he was released. If Bader, O’Neill, Dean, or Thomas don’t pan out, then what? Or what about multiple injuries? Fowler having a bigger role, I hope not. Williams doesn’t look ready either. I think Carlson will start at Memphis. I see keeping Ravelo as lowest risk. If he is not doing well, he can be cut around the time Carlson is promoted.

    #124453
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    DeJong is off to a hot spring training, and last year got off to an unbelievable Mar/April (1.010 OPS) then the numbers drastically fell. After 29 games, that surely wasn’t due to him being overworked was it? If he can sustain a mid .800’s OPS, that would make such a huge difference for the lineup as a hole.

    #124454
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Fitst, Putting Ravelo on waivers doesn’t mean we lose him. He might or might not get claimed on waivers. If not claimed he could declare himself a FA but I dont see that happening.

    If 4 of Bader, Fowler, O’Neill, Dean, Thomas, Carlson, and Williams get injured or dont pan out I dont really see Ravelo as a real saviour.

    But to each his own.

    #124455
    AvatarCardinals27
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    I just don’t see a need to release Ravelo. Besides there are many games remaining to make decisions, including Mikolas and Millers health. Miller and Mikolas could be moved to the 60 dat DL, depending on how they recover.

    #124456
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    CC asked:

    …if Ravelo is so valuable and highly regarded then why would the Cardinals have even considered letting him go to Korea?

    Since you asked, there is a very good reason…

    At the time, they also had Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena ahead of him, along with the other outfielders still here. They stopped the Korea plans as soon as the Tampa Bay trade was finalized.

    Because he has no options and those two were also in the picture, Ravelo’s chances of making the top 26 were far less prior to that trade. So they were willing to let him go in January, knowing he would probably be gone in April, anyway. This way, he could sign in Korea and have a sure job in 2020.

    I am not unreasonably excited about Ravelo. I just don’t see any reason to get rid of him unnecessarily for all the reasons I have already stated. Outright waivers are irrevocable, meaning no one will know if he will be claimed until it would be too late to stop. So that offers no certainty.

    I also have nothing against Dean. If he is any good, he will get his chance.

    #124457
    AvatarCardinals27
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    A lot will change between now and opening day, might as well keep all options (pun intended) open.

    #124476
    AvatarBob
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    The way Woodford has been looking all spring and yesterday vs the Red Sox, JD Martinez, Devers and Xander, setting them all down in order.. he is deserving a much better look. With his development the last 2 years and considering his young age of 23, he will need to be getting some MLB time..sooner better than later!

    #124483
    Avatarbccran
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    Add Woodford to the list and

    Flaherty
    Hudson
    Mikolas
    Martinez
    Kim
    Wainwright
    Gant
    Ponce
    Gomber
    Woodford
    Helsley (if needed)
    Maybe even Reyes for a spot start

    Two full rotations plus. Would think we probably have adequate depth.

    #124517
    thejagerthejager
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    As of today i see the rotation and pen as:
    Jack, Hud, CMart, Waino, Ponce
    Gallegos, Brebbia, Helsley, Gant, Junior, Kim, Webb, Whitley

    healthy:
    Jack, Hud, CMart, Waino, Mikolas
    Gallegos, Brebbia, Helsley, Gant, Junior, Kim, Miller, Cecil

    starter depth order due to injury or performance:
    Ponce, Kim, Gomber, Genesis, Woodford

    reliever depth etc.:
    Webb, Whitley, Reyes, Ponce, Genesis

    #124521
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Kim has a 0.00 ERA in four appearances, eight innings. Just five hits and one walk to go with 11 Ks. Tell me why he should not be in the rotation?

    Whitley is not on the 40-man roster and is unlikely to be added yet, with so many more experienced arms ahead of him who are also pitching very well.

    #124537
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    BW, if Miller and Cecil both miss the first month on the IL, would that increase the need for KK in the pen for you? Let out of options Webb be the solo LH pen arm? Or Webb and one of Gomber / Cabrera, with Webb?

    #124538
    thejagerthejager
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    Kim’s ultimate role is as a reliever for this team barring injuries or very poor performance (which is what it would take to knock any of the 5 guys from their rotation spots)

    Ponce seems just as good as Kim for being deserving of a spot…not to mention Gomber… if Kim is ultimately in the pen…why not start him there?

    Why can’t he be awesome in the pen and not as a starter…why cant he be JUST as valuable if not MORE by taking the big stopper role we have lost in Miller going down

    No one promised him a starting spot and from day one they said he was not being given a rotation spot, that he might be a swing guy that does everything…

    Ponce has been effective as a starter and we havent seen him much as a reliever…i think if he was awesome at it we might have actually seen him pitch more late last year when he sat around did not play

    I like Kim…i LOVE the idea of having a lefty in the rotation…but i don’t see why anyone woudl assume he DESERVES the spot in the rotation when you take into account the other top performances by other pitchers as well as the injuries

    and if we are talking about DESERVING anything Carlson would be given a starting spot too or at least a spot over several other guys who are ahead of him and may be given long leashes of potential failure before Carlson EARNS or is DESERVING his opportunity

    as for Whitley not being on the 40man…don’t we have a spot with Munoz gone? and with that POP in the hamstring of Cecil it sounds like we have 2 spots..

    Whitley is being hyped and is playing too well not to be given a shot if we are in need of a reliever and not a converted starter…if it was September I might get it that we dont want to add him and instead turn to a starter at aAA to fill the bullpen role…

    #124544
    Avatarforsch31
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    The fact that last year’s most productive position player isn’t considered a starter by anyone on the planet should bother you. In fact, anyone who thinks like that should seek counseling.

    You mean the person you want to name the starting RF when he is hitting .250/.308/.361/.669 this spring while Bader, Carlson, O’Neill, Thomas and Dean are all hitting better than him? And all 6 are within 6 PAs of each other.

    He will be no more than a super-sub and the Cardinals are not considering him a starter at any 1 position.

    #124551
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    jj-cf-stl asked:

    1) BW, if Miller and Cecil both miss the first month on the IL, would that increase the need for KK in the pen for you?

    2) Let out of options Webb be the solo LH pen arm?

    3) Or Webb and one of Gomber / Cabrera, with Webb?

    Good questions.

    1) Absolutely not. The rotation need takes precedence over the pen – always.

    2) No.

    3) Yes.

    #125486
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    My latest take on the Opening Day roster, with the assumption of 29 players for the first month. Comments?

    #125494
    AvatarGameCard
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    Again to call Tommy Edman a reserve is both wrong and insulting.

    #125501
    Avatarmudville
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    A 16 man staff does look workable for St. Louis but it would almost certainly be a disaster for just about every other ball club. What you would have would be veterans and young major league ready hitters facing pitchers who might not even be good enough to make our Cardinals’ AA team.

    #125515
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    I would rather see another bench bat instead of 16 pitchers. A bench bat who can play more than one position.

    #125516
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Who do you like, MM3? Sosa or Dean maybe?

    FWIW, the five-man bench has a lot of versatility already. Miller and Edman can cover the IF and OF. Thomas can play all three OF positions. Ravelo can cover the corner OF positions and 1B. Only Wieters plays at one spot. So I didn’t see the need for even more versatility more than another pitcher, but I get where you are coming from. Maybe the bat drives the decision. The Cards certainly could go 15/14 instead of 16/13.

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