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Gordo’s thinking is a little bit irrational.
Yes, it still costs DeWitt real money if you still have to pay those players.
But it also costs DeWitt real money if the team does not make the playoffs (the opportunity cost argument).
Does DeWitt make more money by eating $6-10 million of underperfoming salary and making the playoffs, or retaining the underperforming, overpaid veterans and missing the playoffs?
I don’t see a rebound for Goldschmidt. He previously played in Arizona, where there is no humidity. Moving to St. Louis probably takes his OPS down 100 pts per year every year he is in St. Louis. Balls fly further in dry air than humid air. I mean, even Daniel Descalso had an OPS 100 pts higher in the desert.
DeJong could rebound with getting sporadic time off…If you get in a funk, sometimes it’s best to take two days off and clear your head…
Carpenter never getting on track really hurt the offense…I think he is at the phase of his career he needs to worry less about the number of pitches he sees and more about driving the ball and going the opposite way…Let somebody more in their prime (and with quicker reflexes) be the one to take pitches for the team.
O’Neill is probably the best substitute for Ozuna’s power, but the Grichuk comparison seems valid…Will probably have a slightly higher OBP and maybe a slugging % that is 30-40 pts higher – but he needs to play to get used to MLB pitching…What was the longest consecutive playing time he had last year – two weeks?
Hopefully, Bader will get over his sophomore slump and perform more like his first year in STL next year. If you look at his stats, it seems like the dropoff from 2018 to 2019 was more bad luck on balls in play than anything alarming…I do believe it is beneficial to move players down to AAA for a week or two when they are struggling their first few years in the league. It seemed as though Bader had a month where he couldn’t buy a hit, was sent down and built up his confidence feasting on AAA pitching, then hit pretty well the next few weeks. With so many capable outfielders, they should probably use the taxi squad whenever the youngsters get in a funk.
That could also mean it will be another owners winter where the multi-millionaire wannabes are ignored during the off season and start getting itchy when ST rolls around.
That can create opportunities for front offices that are decisive. For instance, go after second tier guys and offer them contracts but put an expiration on the offer…So, instead of going after Cole and Bumgartner, go after Keuchel and Ryu – and remind them about what happened the last few years…
Personally, I would love to see that as I am one who feels this sport definitely needs a salary cap applied.
The new luxury tax rules are acting as a salary cap, as teams do not want to be over the tax line for three consecutive years. They want that reset.
If the players want to argue about how to get fairly compensated, they need to argue for shorter team control. Right now teams control them for their minor league time, plus six years of major league time. That is roughly 10 years. If I was part of the MLBPA, I would be arguing to cut that MLB service time in half.
The PCL would reduce from 16 teams to 10 and the International League would increase from 14 to 16, which would mean Memphis would switching leagues.
They are going to go from 30 to 26 AAA teams? Which teams are going to lose their AAA teams? I think that would put those teams at a competitive disadvantage.
This seems to be a negotiating stance by MLB to lower costs.
two sub-par years in a row
Funny, his OPS with a bum shoulder last year was the same as Dexter Fowler’s this year when everybody was praising Fowler’s resurgence.
This year, he had the second highest OPS on the team and finished second on the team in HR, with 31, even though he missed a month of the season.
I’m thinking he accepts the QO. And I am hoping that would force the Cardinals to trade Fowler…
gscottar – the salary increases they did last year (Carpenter, Goldy, DeJong) are part of a multi-year planning process (just like strategic planning in any corporation). Those numbers are already figured into their budget for the upcoming year.
The Cardinals made $65 million in profits on $365 million in sales in 2018, according to Forbes. Their payroll represented roughly 45% of revenues versus industry average of 54%. If the Cardinals’ revenues remained the same, and they increased their payroll as % of revenue to MLB average, that would imply an expected payroll of roughly $197 million.
Your argument is the Cardinals should make their team worse than it was this year, because they made foolish contract extensions last year.
You forgot Nick Castellanos.
The difference between 2.6 WAR and 2.8 WAR is negligible, if anything.
I would like to see both Fowler and JMart traded…
Madison Bumgarner would be a good choice as a pitcher, more upside than Keuchel, though will definitely have a QO attached…
The Cardinals got as far as this team was designed to go. They made it back to the playoffs and even won a round. I guess that is a successful season.
I think both Odorizzi and Keuchel can be had in the $15-20 million range. The question is whether MN is going to put a QO on Ordorizzi. Keuchel would probably not command more than 3 years, maybe only two. Plus, he does not have a QO. Ordorizzi will probably get 3-4 years.
To your question rats, the QO will be $17.8 million next year. So, keeping Ozuna will cost an incremental $5.5 million, if he accepts the QO.
I think it is quite possible they will add payroll this year, and shed some next year. Because what you have to look at is who they are replacing.
This year:
– They are likely replacing Wieters with Knizner, which will save them $1 million (Yadi has to agree to let Knizner play at least once per week though)
– They are likely replacing Ozuna with Arozorena, unless Ozuna accepts the QO. In that case, they will likely try to move Fowler, though one can easily argue it is Fowler that should go anyway. The least amount they will save is $10 million if Fowler is traded, $11.7 million if Ozuna walks
– Wainwright reached all his incentives this year, and made $10 million. It will likely take at least $15 million to secure a replacement, so half the savings from the outfield are used up.
– Wacha is definitely gone, and he only made $6 million this year. We’ll again assume at least $15 million for a replacement, which leaves the Cardinals in a $3 million deficit at this point.
– Tony Cingriani is coming off the books, so that saves $2.6 million. Let’s call Cardinals spending even at this point.
– Luke Gregorson, Jedd Gyorko and Mike Leake will save the Cardinals another $12 million this year…In arbitration, you have Dominic Leone, John Gant and Alex Reyes. Reyes and Leone are not getting raises. Let’s say Gant gets a $1 million raise. That leaves an $11 million surplus, which should probably be used on Will Smith…
Next year:
– Yadier Molina and his $20 million come off the books. Yadi may decide he wants to play some more, but it won’t be at $20 million. Let’s say $10 million safely comes off the books
– Andrew Miller – $11.5 million. If we sign Will Smith this year, don’t need to replace Miller next year. Saves $11.5 million
– Brett Cecil – $7.25 million – he is actually at his best for the Cardinals when he is not playing. So, use AAA taxi squad and save $7.25 million
– Mike Leake – $4 million – Finally comes off the books altogther.Now, next year, the Cardinals will have a lot of people become arbitration eligible, so let’s call that $10 million in raises. They should still lower their payroll by $20 million next year…Assuming several of the outfielders actually prove themselves…
So, could the Cardinals tack on $20 million in extra payroll this year and get an ace like Cole, still get somebody like Will Smith and still replace Wainwright? And have their payroll fall back to what it was this past year? Yes.
If you are looking for an upgrade over Ozuna, you are left with 36 year old Brett Gardner…
The Cardinals could upgrade 3B, but unfortunately they extended Carpenter last offseason, so that is probably out.
This looks like a year for pitching upgrades at the back of the rotation (replace Wacha and possibly Wainwright) and sign Will Smith (though the market for him seems to be rather robust, so he will likely sign somewhere else).
I agree the Cardinals aren’t really in the Cole sweepstakes. But that’s really the only way the Cardinals would have a top-of-the-line rotation.
Atlanta fans were raving mad they started Keuchel in playoff games…And he seems to be one of the most practical upgrades over Wacha.
As for your assertion the Cardinals won’t raise payroll – they can go all the way to the luxury tax and not worry about it. They are a small market team with big market revenue. I don’t see them actually going all the way to the luxury tax, but they can add $20-30 million for a year or two and still be immensely profitable, given their new TV contract and the fact they draw 3+ million fans per year. That would only happen if they were seriously chasing rings, and we know that is not their goal. Their goal is strictly to make the playoffs.
– I would hope Ozuna would accept the QO and the Cardinals are forced to trade Fowler…Ozuna >>> Fowler
– I don’t see them trading CMart. If he is a closer, he is about right in terms of salary, middle reliever, his salary is not outrageous. I think for trade value, he has to want to start again, which it does not seem he is inclined to do.
– I don’t see them trading Wong. He has finally started turning into the player they thought he could be the last two years. I would prefer dumping $10 million worth of Fowler’s salary.
– Waino – it’s up to him if he signs another incentive-laden deal
– Wacha gone
– JMart – should be gone to free up playing time for O’Neill, Thomas, Arazorena. Doesn’t matter what you get for him, they only spent cash to get him in the first place.
– Bader should stay. Lots of players struggle in their second year and go on to improve over time. How long did it take Wong to become an average bat?
– O’Neill – hopefully they trade Fowler and JMart and keep O’Neill. He needs playing time to prove himself.
– Weiters – 50/50. Really up to him whether he wants to seek more playing time and what he will sign for…As for Wade Miley, he’s a potential if you are only seeking to get an upgrade over Wacha for 1-2 years. I would prefer Keuchel for a left-hander.
If Waino does leave, I’d like to see Ordorizzi + Keuchel (assuming they won’t venture into the Gerritt Cole sweepstakes). Now, if you could get CMart to return to the rotation and just sign Gerritt Cole….
The Blue Jays have Bo Bichette at SS and Calvin Biggio at 2B. They are weaker in the outfield. Gurriel’s .869 OPS isn’t too shabby for his second year in the league. I wouldn’t call him a total bust at this point. And there is value in having somebody who can play SS, 2B and OF, even if they aren’t the greatest at those positions. As was stated in the Tommy Edman thread, there is value in having utility players when starters go down.
While Gurriel’s contract may be expensive for a utility player, it is not outrageous.
A player in Double-A will earn approximately $6,000 a month on average, and those in Triple-A (the players most likely to be developed into Major League talent) average about $10,000 a month. It’s not major league money, and many would say that $10,000 a month would allow you to live comfortably, but remember, the seasons in the minors are shorter than those in MLB.
It would seem that increasing the minor league salary of players below the AAA level (they make roughly $90k, so not an issue), would give a team a competitive advantage when signing players in the era of hard caps on international player signings.
Imagine you are the Cardinals, and you have your $5.7 million bonus pool. But you also pay all your DSL, GCL, A, A+ and AA players 50% more than other teams (except the Toronto Blue Jays, who have already adopted such a model). Don’t you think such a team can stretch their bonus pool further and sign higher quality players for a lower bonus pool amount? “We are going to offer you a $500k bonus, but given that you will earn 50% more than your peers, it is really like a $650k bonus over your first four years.”
By making it across the board, nobody can accuse you of shenanigans, but it would enable a team looking to maximize its bonus pools a competitive advantage over other teams.
What you didn’t mention is the money that the Cardinals are adding to the payroll.
Yes, they are adding payroll to existing players next year, but that was their own stupidity. They had no reason to give Carpenter that raise at that time.
Goldschmidt would definitely not be getting those numbers based on this year’s performance and his penchant for striking out, but the Cardinals gave up a lot of talent to get him, and were forced into overpaying him, resulting in a bad contract, just like Fowler’s.
The Jose Martinez salary increase – if the Cardinals don’t trade him or DFA him, it shows how bad the Cardinals front office is. Is Jose Martinez better than Tyler O’Neill, Randy Arozorena or Dylan Carlson? No? Then dump him.
But Fowler is not getting traded, nor should he be, IMO. He is a team leader.
I don’t see Fowler as a team leader. Wasn’t he the one pouting about being benched last year? Wasn’t he the one last one to the ballpark, first one to leave the year before?
I must read from different books on leadership.
The Cardinals have $29.5 million coming off the books in the form of:
$13 million – Jedd Gyorko
$6.35 million – Michael Wacha
$6 million – Luke Gregorson
$2.65 million – Tony Cingrani
$1.5 million – Matt WietersThey also have an additional $14.25 million coming off the books in:
$12.25 million – Marcell Ozuna
$2 million Adam WainwrightOf those people, Wainwright will come back to St. Louis if he wants to and strikes another team-friendly deal. Wieters probably should come back if the Cardinals can sign him for less than $4 million, and Ozuna probably should be brought back as a MOTO bat.
To pay for Ozuna, they will have to trade Fowler. Ozuna is a better bat than Fowler, so this should be a no-brainer. Trading Fowler means eating at least $6 million per year over his last two years. Last year, AJ Pollock received 4 years/$55 million. If the Cardinals could sign Ozuna to a $4 year/$64 million deal, they would still net $6 million in savings from Fowler AND have a better player….Even if they went up to 4/$80 million, they would still be saving money on the outfield.
Replacing Gregorson salary-wise should be Will Smith, LHP, Giants. The Cardinals have coveted him for years. He is better than Gregorson and Cecil, so sign him to a 3 year/$18 million deal and it is cost neutral…Though the Cardinals should be willing to go as high as they did with Cecil, because let’s face it, Smith is far better than Cecil…
Speaking of Cecil, he is owed $7.25 million next year, has been an absolute disaster for the Cardinals, as even in 2017, when he had an ERA under 4, he was allowing over 40% of inherited runners to score. I say trade him and $6.5 million to Baltimore for international cap space….
Another trade I would make would be Jose Martinez. He is set to make $2.125 million next year. Trade him away for international cap space, too. The Cardinals have better options in Arozorena, Thomas, O’Neill and Carlson…Clear the roster space. It’s not like the Cardinals gave up anything to acquire Jose Martinez, they just gave the Royals cash. The roster space is more valuable for the Cardinals than JMart is.
To replace Wacha, I would sign Dallas Keuchel or Jake Ordorizzi. Both should be had for 3-4 years, $60-80 million. The salaries of Gyorko and Wacha essentially pay the salary of Wacha’s replacement (plus, there are some savings from trading Fowler and retaining Ozuna). Both are upgrades over Wacha. Keuchel has the benefit you know he will not have a QO attached.
The flier I would take would be Arodyz Viscaino. He has a career 3.01 ERA and 1.286 WHIP. He only played 4 games last year before having shoulder surgery. If the Cardinals could get him on a relatively inexpensive 1-3 year deal, it could be a steal…
