StL 2019 NLCS Game 4 thread: Tue 10/14 at Nats

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  • #111054
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Time 7:05 CT, Dakota Hudson vs. Patrick Corbin, TBS // ESPN Radio // KMOX

    #111692
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    What, no posts yet? The mark of a champion is to do like Winston Churchill said in his famous speech:

    Never give up
    Never give up
    Never give up

    I aint going to give up.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    p.s. I will be watching Cannon tonight though..:)

    #111695
    AvatarWooster
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    Hey Rats, I was waiting to see if anybodyelse was gonna show up. Kinda like an empty room on the webpage today. One thing sports will teach you is to never give up. Got to hang in there till its over. Works the same way in the real world too I’m gonna watch it too
    I am pleasantly surprised to see us be this far into the post season. Team still needs an offense but the rest is ok. We won the Central- YOWZA! So anyway lets see what happens tonight. Football seasons next and I only watch college. Don’t care much for the prima donnas in the NBA… Guess I’ll be fishin’ more soon cept on Saturdays.

    #111696
    AvatarCardinal in France
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    I’m witchew Rat. Except I’m going to have to settle for some early Law and Order reruns that the French seem to like.

    #111697
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    The Cards have lost multiple 3-1 series leads (4 times, with no other team having more than two. Blech) and lost a World Series to the only team to come back from a 3-0 deficit. If any team is due for a return favor, it’s St Louis. It will be tough, but obviously it must start tonight.

    #111698
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Fowler and Carpenter sit.

    #111699
    Avataratripleshyofthecycle
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    Sometimes you just have to reshuffle the deck chairs.

    #111702
    AvatarPaul7
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    A Cub fan weighing in, lots of negativity here, I would be thrilled if my team was playing in the NLCS. The ’27 Yankees wouldn’t have hit Strassburg last night. The playoffs are all about who is hot at the end of the season, that team is the Nats. They way they’re playing I could see them beating the Yankees or Astros. Yes, you have a couple of overpaid non-producers, so does my team and most others. Some good young pitching on your team.

    That’s all.

    #111710
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    I saw a statistical analysis a few years ago of winning a series when down 0-3. It has rarely happened in history, 3% I think I read. Were the Red Sox the only team to do it?

    Anyway, if the two teams are even, then there is a 6.25% (.0625 probability) chance the trailing team will win four in a row (the math is 0.5 to the 4th power). It further stated that assume the team trailing is inferior and give them just a 0.45 probability of winning an individual game. Then the probability of coming back to win the series is 4.1% (0.45 to the 4th power). That’s pretty low, but higher than the historical rate.

    Therefore, the analysis speculated we should see more comebacks in the future from 0-3 deficits, i.e., return to the mean. In case you don’t know, return or regression to the means says data points will randomly occur above and below the mean, and over time, this distribution will even out. Ha! The Cards have the Nats right where they want them.

    We also see Shildt does in fact have a limit on loyalty, and Fowler is not leading off. So there’s that going for the Cards, too. It’s sometimes better to arrive late to the party rather than not at all.

    #111712
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    A Cub fan weighing in, lots of negativity here, I would be thrilled if my team was playing in the NLCS. The ’27 Yankees wouldn’t have hit Strassburg last night. The playoffs are all about who is hot at the end of the season, that team is the Nats. They way they’re playing I could see them beating the Yankees or Astros. Yes, you have a couple of overpaid non-producers, so does my team and most others. Some good young pitching on your team.

    That’s all.

    Thanks for the perspective, Paul. I know we’ve had a frustrating time with the offense this year but it’s not like this team lacks talent. The Cards’ young pitching in Flaherty and Hudson (even Cmart is finishing up his age 27 season, lest we forget) should give them a shot to be very competitive in the future. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Goldy, Carp and Dejong all add 20+ points to their wRC+ next year and make this offense at least league average. A couple of other minor tweaks like O’Neill, Arozarena or the like finally coming into their own with Dylan Carlson waiting in the wings and we could see them back atop the Central again.

    #111715
    AvatarPaul7
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    Can’t disagree with any of that, the Cubs are going to have to step up their game.

    #111719
    Avatar1982 willie
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    I like the change in the lineup tonight. may not matter and the outcome may not be different but at least shildt can get out of his own rut every once in a while. who knows, maybe we can make em sweat a little bit.

    #111720
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    Might be the last game of 2019, but I have a feeling we will get this one tonight and avoid the sweep.

    Whatever, it has been a nice upgrade from the last three years. With some of our under-achievers stepping up next year, and no Carpenter-style drop offs, we will be right there in 2020.

    #111721
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Corbin dominated us a few weeks back. It’s often pretty hard to shut the same team down twice in a short span. I have a sense that the offense can score a few tonight, so it will depend on Hudson and the pen to hold the fort down. If…if we get by this one we get Sanchez again for the shot to go back to St Louis. Obviously any elimination game is huge but this one gives us a puncher’s chance to take it back home with Waino and Flaherty waiting. So…it would be a nice time for the bats to show up.

    #111730
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    Well, what a great start. Three strikeouts in the top of the 1st by the Cardinals and then the Nationals plate five runs on us in the last of the 1st. Sayonara 2019.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #111732
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Well, what a great start. Three strikeouts in the top of the 1st by the Cardinals and then the Nationals plate five runs on us in the last of the 1st. Sayonara 2019.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    Uh, you know this how? Watching the game live and the Cards just finished the top of the first with 3 Ks. If the Nats score 5, I will wonder if you aren’t some kind of strange future dweller.

    #111733
    Avatar1964cards
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    Tall order for young Dakota. Hoping all the best for a strong performance.

    #111737
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    That’s why you don’t play Martinez in the OF.

    Also, I’m pretty freaked out that Rats apparently knew what was going to happen before it actually happened. 3-0 Nats with a shot for 5.

    #111738
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    5 runs now. Ok, I’m spooked.

    #111739
    Avatar1964cards
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    Turning into a route!

    #111740
    Avataratripleshyofthecycle
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    Regression to the mean can be a sudden and painful thing. Is it possible to become a seller on October 15th?

    #111741
    colhuskercolhusker
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    Can you say KABOOM? Wow, what an implosion. Every thing looked soooooo good just a couple days ago and by today. Well, KABOOM.

    #111742
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    I gave up on them when it got to be 5-0. Turned out to be 7.

    Let Pugs explain it to you.

    r/Esteemed Rat <~~~~who is having Campbell’s Beans & Franks for his late supper tonight along with a chocolate shake and a cigar while he watches Cannon.

    #111745
    Avatar1964cards
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    Need to start pecking away at the lead.

    #111746
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    And I shut down the Cardinal Nation site for awhile after I realized what was coming. Didn’t want to see all the crying as the comedy unfolded for everybody else.

    Notice the lack of posters there for awhile?

    r/Esteemed Rat

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