September 6, 2019 at 5:29 pm #105327
I was a big advocate for signing Patrick Corbin last offseason as the best LHSP on the market, 6/$140 now looks like a bargain. 5.3 WAR so far this year, which the positive “value” on that, at 8M per WAR, would mean that he only needs 12.2 WAR over the next 5 to be worth his contract.
Wacha and Ponce (same number of starts as Corbin) are at .3 WAR (5 WAR less), it would sure be nice to be up 7.5 in the division and chasing home field in the division series!
More importantly, in a 5 game series, it would be great to have him and Flaherty as the 1-2 vs whoever they end up with.September 7, 2019 at 10:54 am #105485
The Cardinals have $29.5 million coming off the books in the form of:
$13 million – Jedd Gyorko
$6.35 million – Michael Wacha
$6 million – Luke Gregorson
$2.65 million – Tony Cingrani
$1.5 million – Matt Wieters
They also have an additional $14.25 million coming off the books in:
$12.25 million – Marcell Ozuna
$2 million Adam Wainwright
Of those people, Wainwright will come back to St. Louis if he wants to and strikes another team-friendly deal. Wieters probably should come back if the Cardinals can sign him for less than $4 million, and Ozuna probably should be brought back as a MOTO bat.
To pay for Ozuna, they will have to trade Fowler. Ozuna is a better bat than Fowler, so this should be a no-brainer. Trading Fowler means eating at least $6 million per year over his last two years. Last year, AJ Pollock received 4 years/$55 million. If the Cardinals could sign Ozuna to a $4 year/$64 million deal, they would still net $6 million in savings from Fowler AND have a better player….Even if they went up to 4/$80 million, they would still be saving money on the outfield.
Replacing Gregorson salary-wise should be Will Smith, LHP, Giants. The Cardinals have coveted him for years. He is better than Gregorson and Cecil, so sign him to a 3 year/$18 million deal and it is cost neutral…Though the Cardinals should be willing to go as high as they did with Cecil, because let’s face it, Smith is far better than Cecil…
Speaking of Cecil, he is owed $7.25 million next year, has been an absolute disaster for the Cardinals, as even in 2017, when he had an ERA under 4, he was allowing over 40% of inherited runners to score. I say trade him and $6.5 million to Baltimore for international cap space….
Another trade I would make would be Jose Martinez. He is set to make $2.125 million next year. Trade him away for international cap space, too. The Cardinals have better options in Arozorena, Thomas, O’Neill and Carlson…Clear the roster space. It’s not like the Cardinals gave up anything to acquire Jose Martinez, they just gave the Royals cash. The roster space is more valuable for the Cardinals than JMart is.
To replace Wacha, I would sign Dallas Keuchel or Jake Ordorizzi. Both should be had for 3-4 years, $60-80 million. The salaries of Gyorko and Wacha essentially pay the salary of Wacha’s replacement (plus, there are some savings from trading Fowler and retaining Ozuna). Both are upgrades over Wacha. Keuchel has the benefit you know he will not have a QO attached.
The flier I would take would be Arodyz Viscaino. He has a career 3.01 ERA and 1.286 WHIP. He only played 4 games last year before having shoulder surgery. If the Cardinals could get him on a relatively inexpensive 1-3 year deal, it could be a steal…September 7, 2019 at 11:31 am #105488
What you didn’t mention is the money that the Cardinals are adding to the payroll.
Goldy: $15.5 to $26= $10.5 add
Carp: $14.75 to $18= $3.25 add
Miller: $11.0 to $11.5= $.5 add
Mikolas: $8.0 to $17= $9 add
Wong: $6.5 to $10.25= $3.75 add
JMart: $1.125 to $2.125 = $1 add
So we have $28M in salary increases plus an arb increase for Gant and possibly Leone plus all of the players who will be making the minimum, and we will still owe Mike Leake $4M. Even without Ozuna, Waino, Wacha, and Cingrani on the books we are looking at a payroll of over $150M. Our payroll this year was a little over $160M, so unless DeWitt authorizes a nice payroll increase I don’t see the room to do much unless we trade some existing payroll.September 7, 2019 at 12:07 pm #105498
Anybody can say what they want. But Fowler is not getting traded, nor should he be, IMO. He is a team leader. I’d say we should try to acquire Hand or Will Smith for the bullpen. Then, leave it at that unless there’s a starting pitcher that we can trade for who is better than what we have available such as Gant, Helsley, Gombe, Ponce de Leon, or Reyes. One of Wacha or Wainwright will also be needed. We I don’t know which of Wacha or Wainwright is a better option, an aging Wainwright or a an uncertain Wacha.September 7, 2019 at 1:00 pm #105501
I think you nailed it Mud.
Should be a fairly quiet winter. Let’s try to get Hand or Smith, then look around for a starter. I would choose Waino over Wacha.
September 8, 2019 at 12:52 am #105531
- This reply was modified 1 week, 1 day ago by gscottar.
I don’t remember ever having so much major league ready outfield depth. Arozarena, Thomas, Bader, Garcia, O’Neill, Carlson, and Williams represent major trade chips. GRanted, one of them would replace Ozuna, and I can see JMart getting traded with another from that list being the 4th/5th outfielder.September 8, 2019 at 1:25 am #105532
I would like to see 3 of them traded for some prospect upgrades or a to notch SP. Fowler would be 1 of the 3 but I don’t see that happening. Therefore, O’Neill, Garcia and JMart would be my choicesSeptember 8, 2019 at 10:23 am #105541
But Fowler is not getting traded, nor should he be, IMO. He is a team leader.
I don’t see Fowler as a team leader. Wasn’t he the one pouting about being benched last year? Wasn’t he the one last one to the ballpark, first one to leave the year before?
I must read from different books on leadership.September 8, 2019 at 10:28 am #105542
What you didn’t mention is the money that the Cardinals are adding to the payroll.
Yes, they are adding payroll to existing players next year, but that was their own stupidity. They had no reason to give Carpenter that raise at that time.
Goldschmidt would definitely not be getting those numbers based on this year’s performance and his penchant for striking out, but the Cardinals gave up a lot of talent to get him, and were forced into overpaying him, resulting in a bad contract, just like Fowler’s.
The Jose Martinez salary increase – if the Cardinals don’t trade him or DFA him, it shows how bad the Cardinals front office is. Is Jose Martinez better than Tyler O’Neill, Randy Arozorena or Dylan Carlson? No? Then dump him.September 8, 2019 at 10:41 am #105544
<Is Jose Martinez better than Tyler O’Neill, Randy Arozorena or Dylan Carlson? No? Then dump him.>
You are assuming on the last two and it is a matter of opinion on the first one. I think he is as far as contributing with the bat. The other two are much younger and will probably be players of the future for the Cards.September 8, 2019 at 11:56 am #105552
Yes, they are adding payroll to existing players next year, but that was their own stupidity.
Yes but money is money. It still counts. Just because we don’t like it doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.September 9, 2019 at 8:26 am #105691
Adding payroll should NOT be an issue for the Cardinals. They have either the highest or top 3 highest profit levels every single year. The argument in regards to “paying off Ballpark Village” or anything such as that is ludicrous. That is a completely different profitable venture, which is more than paying for itself.
There is zero reason this team couldn’t easily support a payroll close to $200M. What happened to the money from that big new TV contract? They already have attendance of 3,075,000, with 9 home games left that will at a minimum average 42,000, that will put them at 3,450,000 for the year. The payroll excuses are getting old, and fans and reporters thinking that it’s an actual constraint are simply drinking the kool-aid.September 9, 2019 at 8:36 am #105694
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I am not saying it should be a constraint. I am saying it is a self imposed constraint.
I like to discuss transactions and player moves that have a chance of happening. Pushing the payroll to $200M doesn’t seem realistic to me based on what the Cardinals have done in the past. They usually bump it up in small increments.
That isn’t kool aid. That is reality.
September 9, 2019 at 8:54 am #105698
- This reply was modified 6 days, 7 hours ago by gscottar.
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Agreed, Gscottar… the financials say it’s certainly doable but the Cards bump payroll about 5% a year, almost like clockwork. Don’t forget that each team got $50M+ from the sale of part of MLB Advanced Media last year. Revenue doesn’t seem to be the issue, but rather an abundance of caution.September 9, 2019 at 9:04 am #105699
I would like to see Odorizzi or Alex Wood as targets for next year. I wasn’t aware Jake O was from Breese, IL, and may consider a Cards offer. He had a good year for the Twins this year. Wood would fill the bill as a much needed lefty starter, and may not require a long commitment. I would offer Wood an incentive laden 1 year contract, perhaps with vesting options for a 2nd year, maybe 25 mill tops for 2 years.September 10, 2019 at 9:53 am #105748
GameCardParticipantPaid - MonthlySeptember 10, 2019 at 4:44 pm #105775
I am still hopeful the Cardinals can sign Ozuna to a reasonable deal. 5 years/$20 million AAV is my limits. Otherwise, take the draft pick. They could backload the contract to get past 2020 when more payroll will drop off. Long shot, I know.
If they do re-sign Ozuna, trade O’Neill. He either needs to start next year or be traded. Otherwise, his value will be greatly reduced.
How about O’Neill, CMart and Fowler (maybe another high prospect) for Scherzer. Nats get salary relief to be able to re-sign Rendon and still upgrade their roster. Cardinals get an ace.
September 10, 2019 at 4:57 pm #105777
- This reply was modified 4 days, 23 hours ago by forsch31.
Not having a reliable closer can be brutally painful.September 10, 2019 at 5:07 pm #105779
We would still have Fernandez.September 10, 2019 at 5:19 pm #105781
If we resign Ozuna I have questions about his post contract effort.September 10, 2019 at 6:55 pm #105788
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27, why him more than any other player?!September 10, 2019 at 7:42 pm #105791
Fernandez still needs to prove himself at major league level. If he can’t handle it then we have to start trying it with some of our other young arms. But they are all unproven, also. By the time we find one that can do it, we might be 10 games out.September 10, 2019 at 8:05 pm #105793
The thing with his whole 2018 conditioning saga that stretched into this spring. His lack of arm strength cost the team. Did Ozuna not come into 2019 spring out of shape? He’s hardly alone in that category, but all these things wave red flags to me. And the fact that we have like 9 major league ready outfielders.
I will say his bat will be hard to replace though.September 11, 2019 at 9:15 am #105846
From Ben Frederickson’s chat in the P-D:
Q: What reasons could the Cardinals decide against extending Marcell Ozuna? He clearly wants to be here.
BenFred: First off, this could change. I’ve said from the beginning that a deep postseason run might alter the team’s thinking here. Heck, Ozuna’s production to this point might change the team’s thinking here. But what we know for sure right now is that things have been very cold on the Cardinals end of things so far. Ozuna has made it clear that he wants to be back. Multiple times he has said that. And the response from the front office? Crickets. So, take that into consideration. Ozuna confirmed there have been no extension talks. Cardinals decision-makers have not made upbeat public comments about wanting to work something out. Mostly silence. And take into consideration the long list of outfield options the Cardinals are intrigued about moving forward: Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, more. And also take into consideration the ups and downs between Ozuna and the Cardinals during his time here, everything from the alarm clock issue, to the frustration surrounding his shoulder injury, to the displeasure with the shape he showed up in this spring. Ozuna has made a strong case since then. He plays every day. He bounced back from an injury and showed power soon after. He’s been a big part of this team, and could be moving forward. Now, take into account what he will want. He’s just about to turn 29. It’s his first shot at free agency. His one big bite, based off current trends. He’s made himself a more expensive player with his performance this season. You asked for reasons it might not happen, and those are the biggest ones.
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